• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.181-199
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to examine whether or not the volatility of the 1997~1998 Asian crisis still affects the monthly stock returns of Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and China from 1980 to 2018. This study investigated whether the volatility has already fallen to pre-crisis levels. To illustrate the possible structural changes in the unconditioned variance due to the Asian financial crisis, we use the MRS-GARCH model, which is a regime switching model. The main results of this study were as follows: First, the stock return of each country was weak in the high volatility regime except Japan resulted by the Asian financial crisis from 1997 to 1998 until March 2018, and the Asian stock market has not yet calmed down except for the global financial crisis period of 2007 and 2008. Second, the conditional volatility has been significantly and persistently decreased and eliminated after the Asian financial crisis. Thus, we could be judged that the Asian stock market was not fully recovered(stable) due to the Asian crisis including the capital liberalization high inflation, worsening current account deficit, overseas low interest rates and expansion of credit growth in 1997 and 1998, but the Asian stock market was largely settled down, except for the 2007 and 2008 in Global financial crises. Considering the similarity between the Asian stock markets and the similar correlation of the regime switching, it may be worthwhile to analyze the MRS-GARCH model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.45-56
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• 2019

In this study, the seismic risk has been evaluated by setting the bedrock acceleration to 0.154g which, was taking into consideration that the earthquake return period for the buried electric power tunnels in the metropolitan area to be 1,000 years. In this case, the risk assessment during the earthquake was carried out in three stages. In the first stage, the site classification was performed based on the site investigation data of the target area. Then, the LPI(Liquefaction Potential Index) was applied using the site amplification factor. After, candidates were selected using a hazard map. In the second stage, risk assessment analysis of seismic response are evaluated thoroughly after the recalculation of the LPI based on the site characteristics from the boring logs around the electric power area that are highly probable to be liquefied in the first stage. The third Stage visited the electric power tunnels that are highly probable of liquefaction in the second stage to compensate for the limitations based on the borehole data. At this time, the risk of liquefaction was finally evaluated based off of the reinforcement method used at the time of construction, the application of seismic design, and the condition of the site.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.477-484
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• 2021

Due to climate change, parts of Korea are experiencing large and small droughts every 2-3 years and extreme droughts every 7 years. Since most droughts occur mainly in areas where small water supply facilities in the tributaries or upstream are located, more research on technology for securing water in these areas is required. In this study, a drought evaluation using SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), SDI (Streamflow Drought Index), and WBDI (Water Budget-based Drought Index) was performed to investigate hydrological drought in the Mulrocheon watershed of Chuncheon, a vulnerable area in terms of water supply. As a result of calculating hydrological drought indices SPEI and SDI, examining each duration, it was confirmed that the common drought in 2014 did not recover and continued until 2015. In the hydrological drought index evaluation result by WBDI, a very severe drought condition was observed in the spring of 2015 following 2014, and that drought was the most severe at -1.94 in November 2017. As a result of deriving a SDF (Severity-Duration-Frequency) curve through frequency analysis by duration using the drought index calculated on a monthly basis from 2003 to 2019 (17 years), most droughts in the Mulrocheon watershed were found to have a return period of less than 10 years, but droughts that occurred in 2014, 2015, and 2019 were found to cover more than 20 years, respectively.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.241-252
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• 2019

To choose appropriate countermeasures against potential coastal disaster damages caused by a storm surge, it is necessary to estimate the frequency of storm surge heights estimation. As the coastal populations size in the past was small, the tropical cyclone risk model (TCRM) was used to generate 176,689 synthetic typhoons. In simulation, historical paths and central pressures were incorporated as a probability density function. Moreover, to consider the typhoon characteristics that resurfaced or decayed after landfall on the southeast coast of China, incorporated the shift angle of the historical typhoon as a function of the probability density function and applied it as a damping parameter. Thus, the passing rate of typhoons moving from the southeast coast of China to the south coast has improved. The characteristics of the typhoon were analyzed from the historical typhoon information using correlations between the central pressure, maximum wind speed ($V_{max}$) and the maximum wind speed radius ($R_{max}$); it was then applied to synthetic typhoons. The storm surges were calculated using the ADCIRC model, considering both tidal and synthetic typhoons using automated Perl script. The storm surges caused by the probabilistic synthetic typhoons appear similar to the recorded storm surges, therefore this proposed scheme can be applied to the storm surge simulations. Based on these results, extreme values were calculated using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) method, and as a result, the 100-year return period storm surge was found to be satisfactory compared with the calculated empirical simulation value. The method proposed in this study can be applied to estimate the frequency of storm surges in coastal areas.

• Maritime Security
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.1-30
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• 2020

The study started with the question, "Is Japan's normalization of nationalization a return to militarism?" Therefore, in order to analyze this, the characteristics of the international system after the inauguration of the Japanese Empire during World War I and World War II and the Abe's 2nd Cabinet in contemporary Japan were compared. Through this, there were some differences in the characteristics of the international system of the two periods, and as a result, it was intended to derive the differences between the two examples. During the prewar period of World War I, the militaristic Japanese Empire suffered great damage from the national pride of being the only power in Asia through the Paris Enhancement Conference, the Washington Navy Treaty, and the London Navy Treaty. However, the Western powers with colonies in Asia still existed in the region, so it was not possible to turn them into immediate power expansion. Meanwhile, World War II broke out in Europe. As a result, the Western powers had to focus on the whole of Europe, and the militaristic Japanese empire became a regional hegemony without missing the international system characteristic of "the hegemony." Unlike in the past militarism, Japan's case of pursuing common nationalization since 2012 has been carried out in the order of Northeast Asia in the composition of the "cold war" new cold war. In particular, Japan is attempting to transform itself into a normal state to strengthen the US-Japan alliance on a self-reliant level due to the lack of quantitative military power compared to the neighboring countries.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.17-24
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• 2020

In this study, series of nonlinear seismic analysis were performed on a reinforced concrete intake tower surrounded by water. To consider the fluid effect around the structure, analysis models were composed using an added mass and CEL approach. At this time, the implicit method was used for the added mass model, and the explicit method was used for the fluid structure interaction model. The input motions were scaled to correspond to 500, 1000, and 2400 years return period of the same artificial earthquake. To estimate the counteractivity of the fluid coupled model, models without fluid effect were constructed and used as a reference. The material models of concrete and reinforcement were selected to consider the nonlinear behavior after yielding, and analysis were performed by ABAQUS. As results, in the acceleration response spectrum of the structure, it was found that the influence of the surrounding fluid reducing the peak frequency and magnitude corresponding to the fundamental frequency of the structure. However, the added mass model did not affect the peak value corresponding to the higher mode. The sectional moments were increased significantly in the case of the added mass model than those of the reference model. Especially, this amplification occurred largely for a small-sized earthquake response in which linear behavior is dominant. In the fluid structure interaction model, the sectional moment with a low frequency component amplifies compared to that of the reference model, but the sectional moment with a high requency component was not amplified. Based in these results, it was evaluated that the counteractivity of the additive mass model was greater than that of the fluid structure interaction model.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.655-662
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• 2021

This study aimed to estimate exploitable groundwater for the sustainable supply of groundwater in the Jinju region of South Gyeongsang Province. As an integrated hydrologic analysis model, SWAT-MODFLOW was used to estimate the distributed groundwater recharge in consideration of land use and soil distribution. As a result of calibration of the model, the coefficient of determination between the observed flow and the simulated flow was 0.75-0.80, which was good. The simulated groundwater recharge rate showed a spatio-temporal distribution due to heterogeneous watershed characteristics. The amount of groundwater recharge shows lower values over winter and spring, but it increases according to the pattern of precipitation in summer and autumn. The calculated average annual groundwater recharge was compared with the result using the baseflow separation method of natural flow, and the deviation of both results was small, within 3 %, confirming the validity of the estimated groundwater recharge. Exploitable groundwater is defined as the amount of recharge corresponding to low flow with 10 years of return period. Therefore, in this study, 14.2 % of the annual precipitation was found to be exploitable as a result of calculating the amount of recharge at a 10-year frequency using a statistical frequency analysis technique.

• Journal of Popular Narrative
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.191-219
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• 2020

This paper aims to identify the key features of the novel writing of Korean American immigrants and their meaning as one aspect of movement and contact occuring in the early modern period. The late return of the novels written by Nakcheong THUN in the 1930s is significant in that it restored ideas on the diversity of early modern mobility and confronted the history and culture of immigrants who were excluded from records and memories. Not only are these novels a product of the phenomenon of immigration, but they have also created a crack in the dichotomous perceptions of domination and subordination, center and periphery by envisioning it as a space that creates new history, culture, institutions and values. These novels treat the free love of intellectual, emotional, and ethical figures as a central event, demystifying Western free love, and at the same time, a society divided by various identities including class, race, and gender. The novels by Nakchung THUN visualize the active exchange between the immigrant and the indigenous community through the character of Jack, and imagines the heterotopia as a place where not for the immigrants' utopia, but for everyone's coexists. These novels have declared a kind of memory war on the subordinate and marginalized contact zones. The contact zones of the immigration area had been a place for experiencing extreme conflicts and discords, and at the same time, it has served as a place where various groups and communities are connected. The contact zones were common areas of solidarity and creation before being subject to division and occupation. The contact zones are far from the border or borderlands, so it is not a fixed and immutable deadlock. As a world free from central domination the contact zones have been a space that preoccupied history and culture through various encounters, and have been a community.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.9-15
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• 2021

The frequency of flash floods in mountainous areas is increasing due to the abnormal weather that occurs increasingly in the recent, and it causes human and material damages is increasing. Various plans for disaster mitigation have been established, but artificial plans such as raising embankment and dredging operation are inappropriate for valleys and rivers in national parks that prioritize nature protection. In this study, flood risk assessment was conducted for Gyeryongsan National Park in Korea using the WMS (Watershed Modeling System)which is rainfall runoff model for valleys and rivers in the catchment. As the result, it was simulated that it is flooding in three sub-catchments (Jusukgol, Sutonggol, Dinghaksa) of a total in Gyeryongsan National Park when rainfall over the 50 years return period occurs, and it was confirmed that the risk of trails and facilities what visitors are using was high. The risk of trails in national parks was quantitatively presented through the results of this study, and we intend to present the safe management guidelines of national parks in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.38 no.12
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• pp.45-65
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• 2022

In this paper, a diaphragm wall that supports soils and rock was modeled using FLAC, a finite difference analysis program, to evaluate the seismic behavior of temporary retaining structures in a deep excavation. The appropriateness of the numerical model was verified by comparing its results with those of the centrifuge test performed in a similar condition. The bending moment distribution along the diaphragm wall shows a very similar tendency, and the maximum acceleration obtained at the backfill and top of the wall shows a difference within 5%. Based on the developed model, a parametric study was conducted in various input earthquake, ground, and excavation conditions. The maximum structural forces and bending moment under earthquake loading were compared with the maximum values during excavation, from which the critical condition that requires a seismic design was roughly sorted out. The maximum bending moment of a wall that retains soil layers increased 17%. Particularly, the axial force of struts located in loose soils increased 32% under 100 years return period of an earthquake event, which strongly is estimated to require seismic design for structural safety.