• Title/Summary/Keyword: return and risk

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Outcomes of Surgery for Total Anomalous Pulmonary Venous Return without Total Circulatory Arrest

  • Lee, Youngok;Cho, Joon Yong;Kwon, O Young;Jang, Woo Sung
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.337-343
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    • 2016
  • Background: Recent developments in surgical techniques and hospital care have led to improved outcomes following total anomalous pulmonary venous return (TAPVR) repair. However, the surgical repair of TAPVR remains associated with a high risk of mortality and need for reoperation. We conducted this retrospective study to evaluate mid-term outcomes following in situ TAPVR repair without total circulatory arrest (TCA), and to identify the risk factors associated with surgical outcomes. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 29 cases of surgical intervention for TAPVR conducted between April 2000 and July 2015. All patients were newborns or infants who underwent in situ TAPVR repair without TCA. Results: Four anatomic subtypes of TAPVR were included in this study: supracardiac (20 cases, 69.0%), cardiac (4 cases, 13.8%), infracardiac (4 cases, 13.8%), and mixed (1 case, 3.4%). The median follow-up period for all patients was 42.9 months. Two (6.9%) early mortalities occurred, as well as 2 (6.9%) cases of postoperative pulmonary venous obstruction (PVO). Preoperative ventilator care (p=0.027) and preoperative PVO (p=0.002) were found to be independent risk factors for mortality. Conclusion: In situ repair of TAPVR without TCA was associated with encouraging mid-term outcomes. Preoperative ventilator care and preoperative PVO were found to be independent risk factors for mortality associated with TAPVR repair.

Association of Mutual Fund Risk Measures and Return Parameters: A Juxtapose of Ranking for Performance in Pakistan

  • KHURRAM, Muhammad Usman;HAMID, Kashif;JAVEED, Sohail Ahmad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.25-39
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    • 2021
  • This purpose of this study is to investigate the association among mutual funds (MFs) risk measures and return parameters, evaluate mutual fund performance and also explore the best appropriate mutual fund performance measure for investment in Pakistan. Therefore, thirty-five mutual funds have been selected for the period 2007-2015. The Sharpe, Treynor, Jensen Alpha, Information ratio and Fama's Net Selectivity measures has been used to analyze MF performance. Our study findings show significant positive relation exist between Sharpe and Jenson alpha & information ratio (IR); Treynor ratio is negatively correlated to Jenson alpha and Jenson alpha is positively allied with IR. Moreover, association among performance measures, Fama's net selectivity is a major driver in leading to other measures but Sharpe and IR lead to Treynor ratio as well. Furthermore, performance measures are ranked in accordance standard deviation with the arrangement of Fama's net selectivity at top, Jenson Alpha at second, Sharpe ratio at third, IR at fourth and Treynor ratio at fifth position according to risk parameters in Pakistan. Overall, Jensen Alpha measure appears to be the best suitable mutual fund performance measure in Pakistan due to its practical nature. Finally, the Pakistani stock market index KSE100 (as benchmark) performs better than MF industry of Pakistan.

The Impact of COVID-19, Day-of-the-Week Effect, and Information Flows on Bitcoin's Return and Volatility

  • LIU, Ying Sing;LEE, Liza
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2020
  • Past literatures have not studied the impact of real-world events or information on the return and volatility of virtual currencies, particularly on the COVID-19 event, day-of-the-week effect, daily high-low price spreads and information flow rate. The study uses the ARMA-GARCH model to capture Bitcoin's return and conditional volatility, and explores the impact of information flow rate on conditional volatility in the Bitcoin market based on the Mixture Distribution Hypothesis (Clark, 1973). There were 3,064 samples collected during the period from 1st of January 2012 to 20th April, 2020. Empirical results show that in the Bitcoin market, a daily high-low price spread has a significant inverse relationship for daily return, and information flow rate has a significant positive relationship for condition volatility. The study supports a significant negative relationship between information asymmetry and daily return, and there is a significant positive relationship between daily trading volume and condition volatility. When Bitcoin trades on Saturday & Sunday, there is a significant reverse relationship for conditional volatility and there exists a day-of-the-week volatility effect. Under the impact of COVID-19 event, Bitcoin's condition volatility has increased significantly, indicating the risk of price changes. Finally, the Bitcoin's return has no impact on COVID-19 events and holidays (Saturday & Sunday).

Two-layer Investment Decision-making Using Knowledge about Investor′s Risk-preference: Model and Empirical Testing.

  • Won, Chaehwan;Kim, Chulsoo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.25-41
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    • 2004
  • There have been many studies to build a model that can help investors construct optimal portfolio. Most of the previous models, however, are based upon the path-breaking Markowitz model (1959) which is a quantitative model. One of the most important problems with that kind of quantitative model is that, in reality, most of the investors use not only quantitative, but also qualitative information when they select their optimal portfolio. Since collecting both types of information from the markets are time consuming and expensive, making a set of target assets smaller, without suffering heavy loss in the rate of return, would attract investors. To extract only desired assets among all available assets, we need knowledge that identifies investors' preference for the risk of the assets. This study suggests two-layer decision-making rules capable of identifying an investor's risk preference and an architecture applying them to a quantitative portfolio model based on risk and expected return. Our knowledge-based portfolio system is to build an investor's preference-oriented portfolio. The empirical tests using the data from Korean capital markets show the results that our model contributes significantly to the construction of a better portfolio in the perspective of an investor's benefit/cost ratio than that produced by the existing portfolio models.

Return Premium of Financial Distress and Negative Book Value: Emerging Market Case

  • KAKINUMA, Yosuke
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine a financial distress premium in the emerging market. A risk-return trade-off of negative book equity (NBE) and distress firms is empirically analyzed using data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand. This research employs Ohlson's (1980) bankruptcy model as a measurement of distress risk. The results indicate that distress firms outperform solvent firms in the Thai market and deny distress anomaly often found in the developed market. Fama-Frech (1993) three-factor model and Carhart (1997) four-factor model verify the existence of a distress premium in the Thai capital market. Risk-seeking investors demand greater compensation for bearing risks of distress firms' going concern. This paper provides fresh evidence that default risk is a significant explanatory factor in pricing stocks in the emerging market. Also, this study sheds light on the role of NBE firms in asset pricing. Most studies eliminate NBE firms from their sample. However, NBE firms yield superior average cross-sectional returns, albeit with higher volatility. Investors are rewarded with distress risks associated with NBE firms. The outperformance of NBE firms is statistically significant when compared to the overall market. The NBE premium disappears when factoring size, value, and momentum in time-series analysis.

Designing Forward Markets for Electricity using Weather Derivatives (날씨파생상품을 이용한 전기선물시장 설계)

  • Yoo, Shiyong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.319-353
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    • 2006
  • This paper shows how weather derivatives can be used to hedge against the price risk and volume risk of purchasing relatively large amounts of electricity. Our specific approach to designing new contracts for electricity is to focus on the return over a summer season rather than on the daily levels of demand and price. It is shown that correct market signals can be preserved in a contract and the associated financial risk can be offset by weather options. The advantage of combining a forward contract with a weather derivative is that the high prices on hot days or when the temperature is high reflect the underlying high cost of producing power when the load is high and that the combined contract with a weather derivative substantially reduces the volatility of the return.

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Premiums/Discounts, Tracking Errors and Performance of Saudi Arabian ETFs

  • DIAW, Alassane
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.9-13
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    • 2019
  • The paper aims to investigate the performance of domestic Saudi Arabian ETFs. ETFs are investment vehicles in vogue. These instruments were the first levers for investors allowing them to enter some markets that have been highly protected or out of reach. Saudi Arabia, which has been promoted as an emerging country by MSCI, seeks to attract more foreign investors. The first ETFs were launched in the years 2010-2011. Even though their number has not increased since then, there is a desire to attract a large number of investors. We use premiums/discounts analysis, standard risk-return models, and tracking errors measurements to assess how closely their replicate the underlying benchmark based on monthly data. The results indicate that out of the three funds investigated two are slightly traded at premium, while the latter exhibit a price discount. However, tracking errors are at minimum for all funds suggesting that they track well the benchmark index. Further, the Jensen's model shows that alphas are negative or null, and betas capture largely the systematic risk which is consistent with index investing strategies. Finally, traditional risk-adjusted measures of performance are used to compare ETFs, and results exhibit negative ratios showing that portfolios achieve lower return than the risk-free rate.

An Investigation of Trading Strategies using Korean Stocks and U.S. Dollar (국내 주식과 미 달러를 이용한 투자전략에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chan;Yang, Ki-Sung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study compares the performances of dynamic asset allocation strategies using Korean stocks and U.S. dollar, which have been negatively correlated for a long time, to examine the diversification effects in the portfolios of them. Design/methodology/approach - In the current study, we use KOSPI200 index, as a proxy of the aggregated portfolio of Korean stocks, and USDKRW foreign exchange rate to implement various portfolio management strategies. We consider the equally-weighted, risk-parity, minimum variance, most diversified, and growth optimal portfolios for comparison. Findings - We first find the enhancement of risk adjusted returns due to risk reduction rather than return increasement for all the portfolios of consideration. Second, the enhancement is more pronounced for the trading strategies using correlations as well as volatilities compared to those using volatilities only. Third, the diversification effect has become stronger after the global financial crisis in 2008. Lastly, we find that the performance of the growth optimal portfolio can be improved by utilizing the well-known momentum phenomenon in stock markets to select the length of the sample period to estimate the expected return. Research implications or Originality - This study shows the potential benefits of adding the U.S. dollar to the portfolios of Korean stocks. The current study is the first to investigate the portfolio of Korean stocks and U.S. dollar from investment perspective.

Left-tail Risk and Expected Stock Returns in the Korean Stock Market (국내 주식시장에서 주가급락위험이 기대수익률에 미치는 영향)

  • Cheon, Yong-Ho;Ban, Ju-Il
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.320-332
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    • 2021
  • This paper investigates the influence of stock-level left-tail risk, which is defined using Value-at-Risk(VaR) estimates of past one-year daily stock returns, in the expected stock returns in the Korean stock market. Our results are summarized as follows: First, monthly-constructed zero-cost portfolios that buy (shortsell) the highest (lowest) left-tail risk decile in the previous month exhibit an average monthly return (called left-tail risk premium) of -2.29%. Second, Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions suggest that left-tail risk in the previous month shows significant and negative explanatory power over return in this month, after controlling for various firm characteristics such as firm size, B/M, market beta, liquidity, maximum daily return, idiosyncratic volatility, and skewness. Third, the stocks with larger recent month loss have lower returns in the next month. Fourth, the magnitude of left-tail risk premium is negatively related with lagged market-level volatility. These results support the hypothesis from a perspective of behavioral finance that the overpricing of stocks with left-tail risk is attributed to the investors' underreaction to it.

Reexamination of Estimating Beta Coecient as a Risk Measure in CAPM

  • Phuoc, Le Tan;Kim, Kee S.;Su, Yingcai
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 2018
  • This research examines the alternative ways of estimating the coefficient of non-diversifiable risk, namely beta coefficient, in Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) introduced by Sharpe (1964) that is an essential element of assessing the value of diverse assets. The non-parametric methods used in this research are the robust Least Trimmed Square (LTS) and Maximum likelihood type of M-estimator (MM-estimator). The Jackknife, the resampling technique, is also employed to validate the results. According to finance literature and common practices, these coecients have often been estimated using Ordinary Least Square (LS) regression method and monthly return data set. The empirical results of this research pointed out that the robust Least Trimmed Square (LTS) and Maximum likelihood type of M-estimator (MM-estimator) performed much better than Ordinary Least Square (LS) in terms of eciency for large-cap stocks trading actively in the United States markets. Interestingly, the empirical results also showed that daily return data would give more accurate estimation than monthly return data in both Ordinary Least Square (LS) and robust Least Trimmed Square (LTS) and Maximum likelihood type of M-estimator (MM-estimator) regressions.