• Title/Summary/Keyword: return and risk

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The Effect of Liquidity Risks on the Relationship between Earnings and Stock Return on Jordanian Public Shareholding Industrial Companies

  • SHAKATREH, Mamoun
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2020
  • The objectives of this study are threefold: 1) to identify the concepts of earnings, stock return and liquidity risks on public shareholding industrial companies listed in the Amman Stock Exchange, 2) to investigate the relationship between earnings, stock return, strength and direction of this relationship, and 3) to find out the effect of liquidity risks at stock return and the effect of liquidity risks on the relationship between earnings and stock return on Jordanian public shareholding industrial companies. To achieve the objectives, an analytical descriptive approach was used. As the data on the public shareholding industrial companies listed in the Amman Stock Exchange were accredited by 52 companies for the period between 2014-2019, data validation tests and their suitability for analysis were considered. A linear regression test was used to test the study hypotheses on the statistical analysis program. The results show that there is a positive and significant correlation at significance level between the earnings and stock return. The results of the study also showed that there is a statistically significant negative effect at significance level of liquidity risk on stock return. In addition, it was demonstrated that liquidity risks have significant negative effects on the relationship between earnings and stock returns.

Analysis on the Apartment Investment Performance (지역별 아파트 투자성과에 관한 분석)

  • Kang, Won-Chul;Kim, Won-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.431-439
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the apartment investment performance including the risk and to verify the presence or absence of regional characteristics. This study made an analysis on the apartment investment performance by dividing it into long and short-term basis. Data collection period is 10 years from 2002 to 2012 and target area includes Gangnam and Gangbuk (southern and northern area of Seoul) and 6 metropolitan cities. For evaluating the investment performance, this study used the earning rate of 5 year 1st class national housing bond as the risk-free rate of return and 1~2 year interest rate of fixed deposit for calculating lease profit. The results of study are as follows, Treynor's Index was used in long investment performance evaluation because of regional characters non-existing in Seoul and Incheon whereas Jensen's Index was used in evaluating because of regional characters existing in 5 metropolitan cities. And Jensen's Index was used in short-term evaluation of all districts as existing regional characters in all districts. Short-term performance considering regional characteristics yielded different results of simple evaluation. Therefore, in case of simple rate of return to evaluate the performance, the recognition of that can be distorted.

Stock Trading Model using Portfolio Optimization and Forecasting Stock Price Movement (포트폴리오 최적화와 주가예측을 이용한 투자 모형)

  • Park, Kanghee;Shin, Hyunjung
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.535-545
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    • 2013
  • The goal of stock investment is earning high rate or return with stability. To accomplish this goal, using a portfolio that distributes stocks with high rate of return with less variability and a stock price prediction model with high accuracy is required. In this paper, three methods are suggested to require these conditions. First of all, in portfolio re-balance part, Max-Return and Min-Risk (MRMR) model is suggested to earn the largest rate of return with stability. Secondly, Entering/Leaving Rule (E/L) is suggested to upgrade portfolio when particular stock's rate of return is low. Finally, to use outstanding stock price prediction model, a model based on Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) which was suggested in last research was applied. The suggested methods were validated and applied on stocks which are listed in KOSPI200 from January 2007 to August 2008.

The Effect of Managerial Ownership on Stock Price Crash Risk in Distribution and Service Industries

  • RYU, Haeyoung;CHAE, Soo-Joon
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study is to investigate the effect of managerial ownership level in distribution and service companies on the stock price crash. The managerial ownership level affects the firm's information disclosure policy. If managers conceal or withholds business-related unfavorable factors over a long period, the firm's stock price is likely to plummet. In a similar vein, management's equity affects information opacity, and information asymmetry affects stock price collapse. Research design, data, and methodology: A regression analysis is conducted using the data on companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) between 2012-2017 to examine the effect of the managerial ownership level on stock price crash risks. Results: Logistic and regression results indicate that the stock price crash risk was reduced as managerial ownership levels are increased. The managerial ownership level has a significant negative coefficient on stock price crash risk, negative conditional return skewness of firm-specific weekly return distribution, and asymmetric volatility between positive and negative price-to-earnings ratios. Conclusions: As the ownership and management align, the likeliness of withholding business-related information is reduced. This study's results imply that the stock price crash risk reduces as the managerial ownership level increases because shareholder and manager interests coincide, thereby reducing information asymmetry.

Value at Risk of portfolios using copulas

  • Byun, Kiwoong;Song, Seongjoo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.59-79
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    • 2021
  • Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most common risk management tools in finance. Since a portfolio of several assets, rather than one asset portfolio, is advantageous in the risk diversification for investment, VaR for a portfolio of two or more assets is often used. In such cases, multivariate distributions of asset returns are considered to calculate VaR of the corresponding portfolio. Copulas are one way of generating a multivariate distribution by identifying the dependence structure of asset returns while allowing many different marginal distributions. However, they are used mainly for bivariate distributions and are not widely used in modeling joint distributions for many variables in finance. In this study, we would like to examine the performance of various copulas for high dimensional data and several different dependence structures. This paper compares copulas such as elliptical, vine, and hierarchical copulas in computing the VaR of portfolios to find appropriate copula functions in various dependence structures among asset return distributions. In the simulation studies under various dependence structures and real data analysis, the hierarchical Clayton copula shows the best performance in the VaR calculation using four assets. For marginal distributions of single asset returns, normal inverse Gaussian distribution was used to model asset return distributions, which are generally high-peaked and heavy-tailed.

Can the Skewed Student-t Distribution Assumption Provide Accurate Estimates of Value-at-Risk?

  • Kang, Sang-Hoon;Yoon, Seong-Min
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.153-186
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    • 2007
  • It is well known that the distributional properties of financial asset returns exhibit fatter-tails and skewer-mean than the assumption of normal distribution. The correct assumption of return distribution might improve the estimated performance of the Value-at-Risk(VaR) models in financial markets. In this paper, we estimate and compare the VaR performance using the RiskMetrics, GARCH and FIGARCH models based on the normal and skewed-Student-t distributions in two daily returns of the Korean Composite Stock Index(KOSPI) and Korean Won-US Dollar(KRW-USD) exchange rate. We also perform the expected shortfall to assess the size of expected loss in terms of the estimation of the empirical failure rate. From the results of empirical VaR analysis, it is found that the presence of long memory in the volatility of sample returns is not an important in estimating an accurate VaR performance. However, it is more important to consider a model with skewed-Student-t distribution innovation in determining better VaR. In short, the appropriate assumption of return distribution provides more accurate VaR models for the portfolio managers and investors.

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A Study on the Style Factors of Office Investment -An Analysis using Appraisal-based Returns- (오피스 투자의 스타일인자에 관한 연구 -평가기반 수익률을 기준으로-)

  • Min, Seonghun;Lee, Young Ho
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2014
  • A test on the significance of style factors which were revealed to be significant in U.S. and U.K. literature is conducted in this study using appraisal-based returns of offices in Korea. Region, size (appraisal value), value-growth propensity (yield gain gap) and leasing conditions (the number of tenants, the length of average leased period and the proportion of key tenant) are included in the analysis model as style factors. The empirical result suggests that firstly core region and large size are significant but they increase risk as well as return contrary to general belief, secondly value propensity significantly decreases risk as well as return as it does in U.S. and U.K., finally the number of tenants among leasing conditions decreases risk as well as return but the length of average leased period and the proportion of key tenant are not significant.

Analysis of Real Estate Investment Trusts' Performance By Risk Adjustment Model (위험조정모형을 활용한 미국 REITs의 부동산 유형별 성과 분석)

  • Park, Won-Seok
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.665-680
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    • 2009
  • This study aims at analyzing the performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts(REITs) by Risk Adjustment Model. The main results are as follows. Firstly, most property types of REITs gain positive(+) excess overall returns at first and second period. On the contrary, most property types of REITs gain negative(-) excess overall returns and their standard deviations are larger at financial crisis period. Secondly, lodging, regional mall and commercial mortgage show lower risk-lower return, and freestanding, apartment and specialty show higher risk-higher return than average REITs, according to the CAPM results of . Moreover CAPM results of show the characteristics of REITs as investment commodities changes into higher risk-higher return for financial crisis period. Lastly, risk adjusted demanded returns of REITs are affected positively(+) by systemic risks and negatively(-) by unsystemic risks, according to the Risk Adjustment Model results of both and . Comparing risk adjusted demanded returns of REITs with their realized returns, healthcare reveals the largest outperformance.

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A Study on Oil Price Risk Affecting the Korean Stock Market (한국주식시장에 파급되는 국제유가의 위험에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Ji-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.75-106
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    • 2007
  • In this study, it is analyzed whether oil price plays a major role in the pricing return on Koran stock market and examined why the covariance risk between oil and return on stock is different in each industry. Firstly, this study explores whether the expected rate of return on stock is pricing due to global oil price factors as a function of risk premium by using a two-factor APT. Also, it is examined whether spill-over effects of oil price volatility affect the beta risk to oil price. Considering the asymmetry of oil price volatility, we use the GJR model. As a result, it shows that oil price is an independent pricing factor and oil price volatility transmits to stock return in only electricity and electrical equipment. Secondly, the two step-analyzing process is introduced to find why the covariance between oil price factor and stock return is different in each industry. The first step is to study whether beta risk exists in each industry by using two proxy variables like size and liquidity as control variables. The second step is to grasp the systematic relationship between the difference of liquidity and size and beta to oil price factor by using the panel-data model which can be analyzed efficiently using the cross-sectional data formed with time series. Through the analysis, we can argue that oil price factor is an independent pricing factor in only electricity and electrical equipment having the greatest market capitalization, and know that beta risk to oil price factor is a proxy of size in the other industries. According to the result of panel-data model, it is argued that the beta to oil price factor augments when market capitalization increases and this fact supports the first assertion. In conclusion, the expected rate of return of electricity and electrical equipment works as a function of risk premium to market portfolio and oil price, and the reason to make beta risk power differentiated in each industry attributes to the size.

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Do good return policies work across cultures? Effect of lenient return policies on online shopper perceptions in Eastern culture

  • Yang, SuJin;Choi, Yun Jung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.75-97
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    • 2013
  • While good return policies are suggested as one of the critical services for e-commerce, ambivalence between the burden of the cost and shoppers' satisfaction may prevent e-tailers from increasing their level of leniency. Based on the S-O-R model, this study has attempted to develop a grounded theory to explain how lenient return policies shape online shoppers' perceptions and responses, with a focus on cultural influences in the relationship. In order to check the cultural effects of the lenient return policy, thirty two female and eleven male undergraduate students in South Korean shoppers, who are accustomed to strict return policies, participated in the semi-structured interview. A series of open-ended questions were designed to explore consumers' reactions toward four different levels of the lenient return policy: from the strict type in South Korea to the lenient type in the U.S. Using qualitative research methods, this research has defined three types of dimensions of lenient return policy: return possible period, complexity of progress, and other restrictions. While previous researchers did not pay much attention, the last dimension, other restrictions, is shown to be the most significant in influencing online shoppers' perceptions, especially in South Korea. Also, the impacts on online shoppers' perceptions from the three types of sub-dimensions of return policy were somewhat different. Whereas a longer return possible period was considered more favorable, a medium level of complexity and restrictions were considered more desirable. In summary, this result showed that shoppers in Eastern cultures, i.e. South Korean online shoppers, seem favorable to a medium level of lenient return policies, while allowing for taking precautions against possible fraudulent behaviors and setting other restrictions. Therefore, most of retailers in South Korea recommended that e-tailers who adopt the most lenient return policies raise the bar to guard ethical shoppers from fraudulent users. Next, lenient return policies can enhance ease of use, usefulness, affect, and trust while relieving perceived risk, which is connected to intention to purchase, satisfaction, and loyalty. Interestingly, lenient return policies are more likely to change the behavioral responses of online shoppers, such as return and purchase, rather than change their attitudes or beliefs such as image, satisfaction, and loyalty. This tendency can be seen more clearly in the direct influences of return policy on responses. The reaction to lenient return policy is mostly the intention to return or to purchase. This suggests that return policy serves the e-tailers as a powerful tool in increasing online shoppers' purchase intention at the moment of purchase. Therefore, e-tailers who plan to expand their market to eastern countries, including South Korea, have to build a shield of restrictions around their lenient return policy, rather than immediately applying their original liberalized return policy. Also, e-tailers in South Korea need to review their strict and undifferentiated return policies to deal with the unsatisfied reactions of online shoppers toward their normal return policies. Although the present study was confined to the return policies currently being practiced by popular e-tailers, it would be worthwhile to develop effective return policies separately for each country, especially South Korea, keeping the culture of the relevant country in mind.

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