• Title/Summary/Keyword: result predictions

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Optimization of Electro-UV-Ultrasonic Complex Process for E. coli Disinfection using Box-Behnken Experiment (Box-Behnken법을 이용한 E. coli 소독에서 전기-UV-초음파 복합 공정의 최적화)

  • Kim, Dong-Seog;Park, Young-Seek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2011
  • This experimental design and response surface methodology (RSM) have been applied to the investigation of the electro-UV-ultrasonic complex process for the disinfection of E. coli in the water. The disinfection reactions of electro-UV-ultrasonic process were mathematically described as a function of parameters power of electrolysis ($X_1$), UV ($X_2$), and ultrasonic process ($X_3$) being modeled by use of the Box-Behnken technique, which was used for fitting 2nd order response surface model. The application of RSM yielded the following regression equation, which is empirical relationship between the residual E. coli number (Ln CFU) in water and test variables in coded unit: residual E. coli number (Ln CFU) = 23.69 - 3.75 Electrolysis - 0.67 UV - 0.26 Ultrasonic - 0.16 Electrolysis UV + 0.05 Electrolysis Ultrasonic + 0.27 $Electrolysis^2$ + 0.14 $UV^2$ - 0.01 $Ultrasonic^2$). The model predictions agreed well with the experimentally observed result ($R^2$ = 0.983). Graphical 2D contour and 3D response surface plots were used to locate the optimum range. The estimated ridge of maximum response and optimal conditions for residual E. coli number (Ln CFU) using 'numerical optimization' of Design-Expert software were 1.47 Ln CFU/L and 6.94 W of electrolysis, 6.72 W of UV and 14.23 W of ultrasonic process. This study clearly showed that response surface methodology was one of the suitable methods to optimize the operating conditions and minimize the residual E. coli number of the complex disinfection.

Validation of Dietary Reference Intakes for predicting energy requirements in elementary school-age children

  • Kim, Eun-Kyung;Ndahimana, Didace;Ishikawa-Takata, Kazuko;Lee, Sangjik;Kim, Hyungryul;Lim, Kiwon;Lee, In-Sook;Tanaka, Shigeho;Kim, Ye-Jin;Choi, Yeon-Jung;Ju, Mun-Jeong;Park, Jonghoon
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.336-341
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Dietary Reference Intakes (DRI) for energy are derived from total energy expenditure (TEE) measured using the doubly labelled water (DLW) method. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of DRI for predicting the energy requirements of elementary school-age children. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The present study involved 25 elementary school-age children aged between 9 and 11 years. TEE was assessed by the DLW method, and the results were compared with the TEE predicted by the DRI equations in order to evaluate accuracy. RESULTS: The subjects' TEE measured by the DLW method was $1,925.2{\pm}380.9kcal/day$ in boys and $1,930.0{\pm}279.4kcal/day$ in girls, whereas resting energy expenditure was $1,220.2{\pm}176.9kcal/day$ in boys and $1,245.9{\pm}171.3kcal/day$ for girls. The physical activity level was $1.58{\pm}0.20$ in boys and $1.55{\pm}0.13$ in girls. The mean bias between the predicted and measured TEE was 12.6% in boys and -1.6% in girls, and the percentage of accurate predictions was 28.6% and 63.6%, respectively. In boys, the equation resulted in underprediction of TEE among the subjects having low TEE values, whereas there was overprediction among subjects having high TEE values as shown by the Bland-Altman plot. On the contrary, this proportional bias was not observed in girls. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest that the DRI equation for energy could result in the overestimation of energy requirements in elementary school-age boys. In the case of girls, the equations could be accurate at the group level. However, the DRI appears to be invalid for individual girls, as more than one third of girls had their TEE inaccurately predicted. We recommend more studies for confirmation of these results.

Real-Time Forecast of Rainfall Impact on Urban Inundation (강우자료와 연계한 도시 침수지역의 사전 영향예보)

  • KEUM, Ho-Jun;KIM, Hyun-Il;HAN, Kun-Yeun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.76-92
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to establish database of rainfall inundation area by rainfall scenarios and conduct a real time prediction for urban flood mitigation. the data leaded model was developed for the mapping of inundated area with rainfall forecast data provided by korea meteorological agency. for the construction of data leaded model, 1d-2d modeling was applied to Gangnam area, where suffered from severe flooding event including september, 2010. 1d-2d analysis result agree with observed in term of flood depth. flood area and flood occurring report which maintained by NDMS(national disaster management system). The fitness ratio of the NDMS reporting point and 2D flood analysis results was revealed to be 69.5%. Flood forecast chart was created using pre-flooding database. It was analyzed to have 70.3% of fitness in case of flood forecast chart of 70mm, and 72.0% in case of 80mm flood forecast chart. Using the constructed pre-flood area database, it is possible to present flood forecast chart information with rainfall forecast, and it can be used to secure the leading time during flood predictions and warning.

$\sqrt{s}$- Observational Procedure for Consolidation Analysis (압밀해석을 위한 $\sqrt{s}$- 예측기법)

  • 정성교;최호광
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.41-54
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    • 1998
  • Predictions of consolidation settlement and time must be always erroneous because of heterogeneity of soil media. errors associated with the measurement of soil parameters, drawback of consolidation theories and so on. When filling is done on compressible soils, the observational procedure is a useful means in practice of evaluating the final consolidation settlement and time. However, the existing observational procedures including some disadvantages such as the difficulty of ending the linearity in the settlement curves, the unavoidable personal error, and so on. A new observational procedure($\sqrt{s}$ method) is suggested here for the consolidation analysis in field. As the results of applying the $\sqrt{s}$ method with other methods to two field data. the fecal settlements predicted by the s method as well as by the Asaoka'$\sqrt{s}$ method agreed well with the measured values. However, results obtained from the hyperbolic method(Tan, 1991) were always overestimated. and there happened many cases not to be predicted by the Hoshino's method. In the settlement curve from the $\sqrt{s}$method, the linearity between 60 and 90 eye of the average degree of consolidation is shown. and then the possibility of a personal error seems to be unusual. The final consolidation times(at $U_{95}$) predicted by the $\sqrt{s}$ method agreed well with the measured ones. but the ones by Asaoka and Tan(1996) methods were very much underestimated or overestimated. where $U_{95}$, is the average degree of consolidation of 95%. The big errors of these two methods seem to result from unconsidering the effect of stage construction.

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Influence of Students' Perceptions of Motivational Climate Emphasized by Science Teachers and Peers on Achievement Goals (과학 교사와 동료 학생에 의해 강조되는 동기적 학습 환경에 대한 학생들의 인식이 성취 목적에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, Kyung-Moon;Park, Hyun-Ju;Noh, Tae-Hee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.364-370
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to examine middle school students' (N= 153) perceptions of motivational climate (teacher learning/teacher comparison/peer learning/peer comparison/peer worry) and their achievement goals (task/performance/performance-avoidance). The influence of perceptions of motivational climate emphasized by science teachers and/or peers on achievement goals was explored by stepwise regression. Although there was no difference in male/female perceptions of motivational climate, there was significant difference in their achievement goals. Regression result indicated that the pursuit of learning by peers made the strongest contribution to students' task goal. On the other hand, promotion via comparison by science teachers or peers had little effect on inducing performance goal. Anxieties about mistakes were found to be the strongest contribution to predictions on students' performance-avoidance goal. The promotion of comparison by science teachers was related to not only performance goal, but also performance-avoidance goal. Lastly educational implications for intervention efforts designed to enhance the quality of student motivational development in science education are discussed.

Shear Friction Strength Model of Concrete considering Transverse Reinforcement and Axial Stresses (축응력 및 횡보강근을 고려한 콘크리트의 전단마찰내력 평가모델)

  • Hwnag, Yong-Ha;Yang, Keun-Hyeok
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2016
  • Shear friction strength model of concrete was proposed to explain the direct friction mechanism at the concrete interfaces intersecting two structural elements. The model was derived from a mechanism analysis based on the upper-bound theorem of concrete plasticity considering the effect of transverse reinforcement and applied axial loads on the shear strength at concrete interfaces. Concrete was modelled as a rigid-perfectly plastic material obeying modified Coulomb failure criteria. To allow the influence of concrete type and maximum aggregate size on the effectiveness strength of concrete, the stress-strain models proposed by Yang et al. and Hordijk were employed in compression and tension, respectively. From the conversion of these stress-strain models into rigidly perfect materials, the effectiveness factor for compression, ratio of effective tensile strength to compressive strength and angle of concrete friction were then mathematically generalized. The proposed shear friction strength model was compared with 91 push-off specimens compiled from the available literature. Unlike the existing equations or code equations, the proposed model possessed an application of diversity against various parameters. As a result, the mean and standard deviation of the ratios between experiments and predictions using the present model are 0.95 and 0.15, respectively, indicating a better accuracy and less variation than the other equations, regardless of concrete type, the amount of transverse reinforcement, and the magnitude of applied axial stresses.

A Fitness Verification of Time Series Models for Network Traffic Predictions (네트워크 트래픽 예측을 위한 시계열 모형의 적합성 검증)

  • 정상준;김동주;권영헌;김종근
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.29 no.2B
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    • pp.217-227
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    • 2004
  • With a rapid growth in the Internet technology, the network traffic is increasing swiftly. As for the increase of traffic, it had a large influence on performance of a total network. Therefore, a traffic management became an important issue of network management. In this paper, we study a forecast plan of network traffic in order to analyze network traffic and to establish efficient correspondence. We use time series forecast models and determine fitness whether the model can forecast network traffic exactly. In order to predict a model, AR, MA, ARMA, and ARIMA must be applied. The suitable model can be found that can express the nature of traffic for the forecast among these models. We determines whether it is satisfied with stationary in the assumption step of the model. The stationary can get the results by using ACF(Auto Correlation Function) and PACF(Partial Auto Correlation Function). If the result of this function cannot satisfy then the forecast model is unsuitable. Therefore, we are going to get the correct model that is to satisfy stationary assumption. So, we proposes a way to classify in order to get time series materials to satisfy stationary. The correct prediction method is managed traffic of a network with a way to be better than now. It is possible to manage traffic dynamically if it can be used.

A Modified Logistic Regression Model for Probabilistic Prediction of Debris Flow at the Granitic Rock Area and Its Application; Landslide Prediction Map of Gangreung Area (화강암질암지역 토석류 산사태 예측을 위한 로지스틱 회귀모델의 수정 및 적용 - 강릉지역을 대상으로)

  • Cho, Yong-Chan;Chae, Byung-Gon;Kim, Won-Young;Chang, Tae-Woo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.40 no.1 s.182
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2007
  • This study proposed a modified logistic regression model for a probabilistic prediction of debris flow on natural terrain at the granitic rock area. The modified model dose not contain any categorical factors that were used in the previous model and secured higher reliability of prediction than that of the previous one. The modified model is composed of lithology, two factors of geomorphology, and three factors of soil property. Verification result shows that the prediction reliability is more than 86%. Using the modified regression model, the landslide prediction maps were established. In case of Sacheon area, the prediction map showed that the landslide occurrence was not well corresponded with the model since, even though the forest-fred area was distributed on the center of the model, no factors were considered for the landslide predictions. On the other hand, the prediction model was well corresponded with landslide occurrence at Jumunjin-Yeongok area. The prediction model developed in this study has very high availability to employ in other granitic areas.

The Study on the Stress Concentration Ratio of Low Slump Mortar Grouting Mixtures for Improving the Soft Ground (연약지반 보강을 위한 저유동성 몰탈 개량체의 응력분담비에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Eonsang;Kim, Byungil;Park, Seungdo
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the stress concentration ratio for the improved material of the low slump mortar grouting was evaluated through the composite ground method, the ground arching theory, the plastic angle method, the 2D and 3D numerical analysis and the 3D model experiment. The stress concentration ratio calculated by the composite ground method was 89.3, 3.75~59.0 when the three-dimensional ground arching theory was applied, and 82.8 for the three-dimensional plastic angle method. As a result of the 2D numerical analysis, the stress concentration ratio was 63.0~77.0, which was found to increase as the improvement ratio increased. The results of 3D numerical analysis were predicted to be 50.0~56.0 smaller than the results of 2D analysis. In the case of a special model experiment using a large triaxial compression cell, the stress concentration ratio for each load step was 53.0~60.0, and the stress concentration ratio evaluated by the experiment was measured within 2D and 3D numerical analysis predictions. In this study, a predictive equation for the stress concentration ratio according to the improvement ratio is proposed based on the analysis and experimental values for the improved ratio of the low slump mortar grouting.

Modelling of Pollen Dispersal of Maize (Zea mays L.) Using Gamma Model (감마모델을 이용한 옥수수의 화분비산 모델링)

  • Lee, Yong-Ho;Kwon, Young-Sun;Wang, Hong Wei;Lee, Su-Jeong;Alamgir, Kabir Md.;Karuppanapandian, Thirupathi;Hong, Sun-Hee;Lee, Dong-Jin;Baek, Hyung-Jin;Jang, Young-Seok;Kim, Wook
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.365-370
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    • 2010
  • The pollen dispersal by wind can make an important to understanding the viability and evolution of plants in ecological and agricultural science. Modelling can be applied to evaluate concerns about the spread of engineered pollens from genetically modified (GM) crops. Here, we are using gamma model to estimate the level of dispersal distance of pollen in the cross-pollination between two different maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars in GMO field of Korea University during the year 2010. The result of estimation of model indicates maximum pollen dispersal distance of estimated proportion of cross-pollination of maize was reached to 0.1% in 525 meter northwest due to the wind. We identify further measurements necessary to improve the accuracy of the model predictions.