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A Modified Logistic Regression Model for Probabilistic Prediction of Debris Flow at the Granitic Rock Area and Its Application; Landslide Prediction Map of Gangreung Area  

Cho, Yong-Chan (Geological & Environ. Hazards Division, Korea Inst. of Geoscience and Mineral Res.(KIGAM))
Chae, Byung-Gon (Geological & Environ. Hazards Division, Korea Inst. of Geoscience and Mineral Res.(KIGAM))
Kim, Won-Young (Geological & Environ. Hazards Division, Korea Inst. of Geoscience and Mineral Res.(KIGAM))
Chang, Tae-Woo (Dept. of Geology, Kyungpook National University)
Publication Information
Economic and Environmental Geology / v.40, no.1, 2007 , pp. 115-128 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study proposed a modified logistic regression model for a probabilistic prediction of debris flow on natural terrain at the granitic rock area. The modified model dose not contain any categorical factors that were used in the previous model and secured higher reliability of prediction than that of the previous one. The modified model is composed of lithology, two factors of geomorphology, and three factors of soil property. Verification result shows that the prediction reliability is more than 86%. Using the modified regression model, the landslide prediction maps were established. In case of Sacheon area, the prediction map showed that the landslide occurrence was not well corresponded with the model since, even though the forest-fred area was distributed on the center of the model, no factors were considered for the landslide predictions. On the other hand, the prediction model was well corresponded with landslide occurrence at Jumunjin-Yeongok area. The prediction model developed in this study has very high availability to employ in other granitic areas.
Keywords
debris flow; probabilistic prediction; logistic regression model; landslide prediction map;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 6  (Citation Analysis)
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