• 제목/요약/키워드: result predictions

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무중력 상태에 대한 예상의 확인 결과가 예비 초등 교사의 인지갈등과 개념변화에 미치는 영향 (The Effects of the Result of Ascertaining Predictions on Pre-service Elementary Teachers' Cognitive Conflict and Conceptual Change in the Concept of Weightlessness)

  • 최혁준;김준태;권재술
    • 한국초등과학교육학회지:초등과학교육
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2005
  • This study examined the effects of the result of ascertaining predictions on cognitive conflict and conceptual change when students teamed the concept of weightlessness. Participants were 200 pre-service elementary teachers. They answered the pretest composed of two items. Through the demonstration on either of two items of the pretest, they identified whether their predictions were correct or not. In addition, students' cognitive conflicts were measured. After brief instructional treatment, the posttest was conducted. The results of this study are as follows: The more students who identified their own predictions on the experiment were incorrect there were, the more effective it was on cognitive conflict and conceptual change. And cognitive conflicts and conceptual changes of students who identified that their predictions were incorrect were generated meaningfully more than those of students who identified that their predictions were correct. From these results, it is concluded that students who identified that their predictions were correct experience cognitive conflicts, but their cognitive conflicts and conceptual changes were smaller than those of students who identified that their predictions were incorrect.

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침하예측을 위한 쌍곡선 식의 신뢰성 평가에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Evaluation of Reliability for Settlement Predictions by Hyperbolic Method)

  • 이승우;김유석
    • 한국지반공학회지:지반
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    • 제13권6호
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 1997
  • 연약지반 개량을 위한 프리로딩 공법에서 침하 애측은 시공관리상 매우 중요한 요소이다. 지반의 비균질성, 지반 물성치 조사의 한계 등의 이유로 설계시에 침하속도 및 침하량을 실제 발생치와 근접하게 예측하기는 매우 어렵다. 이러한 문제점 때문에 쌍곡선법,아사오카법 등 초기 침하계측을 이용한 장래 침하 추정 법들이 침하 예측 기법으로 활발하게 이용되고 있으나, 예측 시점에서 추정된 장래 침하량의 신뢰성에 대한 평가 방법엔 대하여서는 제시된 바가 없다. 본 연구는 사례연구를 통하여 쌍곡선법으로 예측된 장래침하량들과 실 침하량들을 비교하구 초기 계측 기간에 따른 장래 침하량 예측의 신뢰성에 관한 분석을 통하여. 쌍곡선법을 이용한 장래 침하량 추정의 신뢰성 평가 방법을 제시하고자 한다.

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작용 . 반작용과 전기회로 학습과제에서 인지갈등과 결과예측에 따른 대학생의 응답특성 (Undergraduate Students' Response Characteristics by Cognitive Conflict Levels and Result Predictions on Action-Reaction and Electric Cireuits Learning Tasks)

  • 홍정인;김연수;권재술
    • 한국과학교육학회지
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.354-365
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    • 2007
  • 이 연구는 작용 반작용 과제와 전기회로 과제에서 인지갈등 정도와 실험결과 예측에 따른 대학생의 인지갈등 특성을 알아보는 데 목적이 있다. 연구대상은 일반물리실험을 수강중인 공과 대학 학생 147명이었다. 인지갈등 정도와, 예측이 실험결과와 일치하는가를 기준으로 학생들을 네 집단으로 나누어 학생들의 응답을 분석하였다. 첫째, 작용 반작용 과제에서는 실험결과를 의심하고 오류를 찾아내려고 하는 경향을 나타내었으나, 전기회로 과제에서는 현상을 그대로 인정하는 경향이 나타났다. 둘째, 인지갈등 정도에 따라 인지갈등 요인별 응답 원인이 다르다. 학생의 인지갈등은 학생의 과거 지식, 경험, 학습습관, 학습동기, 인식론적 신념 등의 영향을 받는다. 인지갈등 점수가 높은 학생은 불일치 상황을 잘 인식하고 자신이 모르는 것을 지각하고 있었고, 재평가의 의지가 높았다. 반면에 인지갈등 점수가 낮은 학생들은 상황을 의심 없이 받아들이는 경향이 있었고 물리에 대한 관심이 적었다. 결론적으로, 이 연구는 이러한 응답특성을 근거로 학생과 과제의 특성을 파악하고 그에 따른 적절한 인지갈등 전략이 마련될 필요가 있음을 제안하였다.

지표면 재하시 사질토 지반의 상대밀도에 따른 지중 연직응력분포 특성 (Characteristics of Vertical Stress Distribution in Soil according to the Relative Density of Sandy Soil in case of Surface Loading)

  • 임종석;이인형;정원중
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지반공학회 2003년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.422-426
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    • 2003
  • Model soil tank tests were conducted in sandy soil to investigate the effect of surcharge strip loads on vertical stress distribution in soil. A total number of 6 tests were performed using one loading plate and two relative density(55%, 65%). The soil was considered as an elastic material, while no friction was allowed between the wall and the soil. Measured stress values were compared to predictions defined by Frohlich, Boussinesq and Westergaard. The comparison of measured values and predictions used the ratio between the soil pressure and load value. Results of this study demonstrated that experimental values were generally larger than predictions. The Frohlich analysis provided the best prediction, while the Boussinesq analysis and Westergaard theory not presented a satisfactional result.

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Lab scale electrochemical codeposition experiments for comparison to computational predictions

  • Lafreniere, Philip;Zhang, Chao;Simpson, Michael;Blandford, Edward D.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제52권9호
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    • pp.2025-2033
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    • 2020
  • Signature-based safeguards (SBS) is being developed to assist tradition nuclear material accountancy methods in tracking material in pyroprocessing facilities. SBS involves identifying off-normal scenarios that would result in improper movement of material in a pyroprocessing facilities and determining associated sensor response signatures. SBS investigations are undertaken in the computational space utilizing an electrochemical transport code known as enhanced REFIN with anodic dissolution (ERAD) to calculate the affect of off-normal conditions in the electrorefiner (ER) on material movement. Work is undertaken to experimentally validate the predictions and assumptions made by ERAD for off-normal occurrences. These experiments were undertaken on a benchtop scale and involved operating an electrochemical cell at 10 separate current densities for constant current operations to deposit U and Gd at a W cathode. These experiments were then modeled using ERAD to compare calculated predictions versus analytical experimental results it was found. It was discovered both the experimental and calculated results reflect a trend of increased codeposition of U and Gd with increasing current density. ERAD was thus demonstrated to be useful for predicting trends from anomalous operation but will require further optimization to be utilized as a quantitative design tool.

앙상블 예측기법을 통한 유역 월유출 전망 (Forecasting Monthly Runoff Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction)

  • 이상진;김주철;황만하;맹승진
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제52권1호
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2010
  • In this study the validities of runoff prediction methods are reviewed around ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) techniques. The improvements of runoff predictions on Yongdam river basin are evaluated by the comparison of different prediction methods including ESP incorporated with qualitative meteorological outlooks provided by meteorological agency as well as the runoff forecasting based on the analysis of the historical rainfall scenarios. As a result it is assessed that runoff predictions with ESP may give rise to more accurate results than the ordinary historical average runoffs. In deed the latter gave the mean of yearly absolute error as to be 60.86 MCM while the errors of the former ones amounted to 44.12 MCM (ESP) and 42.83 MCM (ESP incorporated with qualitative meteorological outlooks) respectively. In addition it is confirmed that ESP incorporated with qualitative meteorological outlooks could improve the accuracy of the results more and more. Especially the degree of improvement of ESP with meteorological outlooks shows rising by 10.8% in flood season and 8% in drought season. Therefore the methods of runoff predictions with ESP can be further used as the basic forecasting information tool for the purpose of the effective watershed management.

2단 평행판 정전식 집진기에서의 입자하전 및 포집 (Particle Charging and Collection in Two-Stage, Parallel-Plate Electrostatic Precipitators)

  • 오명도;유경훈;이준식
    • 대한기계학회논문집
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.432-445
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    • 1994
  • From a theoretical analysis point of view, the 2-stage precipitator is decomposed into two units: charging cell and collecting cell. Collection efficiency predictions of the two-stage parallel-plate electrostatic precipitator have been performed theoretically incorporating with the charging and the collecting cells. Particle trajectorise passing the charging cell have been modeled as a simple one. Particle charge distribution at the outlet of the charging cell is calculated through integration of the present unipolar combined charging rate along the entire particle trajectory, and average charge of particles at the outlet of the charging cell is obtained from the particle charge distribution. As for the collecting cell, the diminution of particle concentration along the longitudinal direction of the collecting cell is investigated considering the conventional Deutsch's theory and the laminar theory. One should note that the collection efficiency formula derived is based on monodisperse aerosols. It has been confirmed through the analysis that predictions of particle charge by applying White's unipolar diffusion charging theory overpredict actual cases in the continuum regime, while predictions by Fuch's unipolar diffusion charging theory indicate the reasonable result in the same regime. Theoretical predictions of collection efficiency are also compared with the available experimental results. Comparisons show that the experimental results are consistently located in the collection efficiency region bounded by the two limits, the Deutsch and the laminar collection efficiencies. Finally design parameters of the 2-stage electrostatic precipitator have been investigated systematically through the one-variable-at-a-time method in terms of collection efficiency. Applied voltages on the corona wire of the charging cell and the plate of the collecting cell, and the average air velocity have been selected as the design parameters.

난연처리된 목재의 연소속도에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Burning Rate of Fire Retardant Treated Wood)

  • 박형주
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.46-54
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to examines the burning rate of fire retardant treated wood in the cone heater with a one-dimensional integral model. The wood samples used in this study were four species. The species of woods are Redwood, White oak, Douglas fir and Maple. Each sample was nominally 50mm thick and 100mm square. Samples were exposed to a range of incident heat fluxes 10 to $35kW/m^2$ using the cone heater. A one-dimension integral model has been used to predict burning rate, heat of gasification, flame heat fluxes, charring rate and char depth of samples. As a result measurement of mass loss rate, softwoods(Redwood and Douglas fir) has relatively low value than those for hardwoods(White oak and Maple). Average charring rate of woods in case of fire retardant treatment showed reduction effect of 41.29%, 50.00%, 48.18% and 60.82% for Redwood, Douglas fir, White fir and Maple, respectively. Almost all the predictions from integral model showed faster charring than those measured. Average difference between predictions and experimental data was 16%, 9.5% and 11.8% for N, F1 and F2 respectively. Water-soluble fire retardant used in this study find out more effect in hardwood than softwood from the result of measurement of mass loss rate and average charring rate.

양파와 마늘가격 예측모형의 예측력 고도화 방안 (Improving Forecasting Performance for Onion and Garlic Prices)

  • 하지희;서상택;김선웅
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제25권4호
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to present a time series model of onion and garlic prices. After considering the various time series models, we calculated the appropriate time series models for each item and then selected the model with the minimized error rate by reflecting the monthly dummy variables and import data. Also, we examined whether the predictive power improves when we combine the predictions of the Korea Rural Economic Institute with the predictions of time series models. As a result, onion prices were identified as ARMGARCH and garlic prices as ARXM. Monthly dummy variables were statistically significant for onion in May and garlic in June. Garlic imports were statistically significant as a result of adding imports as exogenous variables. This study is expected to help improve the forecasting model by suggesting a method to minimize the price forecasting error rate in the case of the unstable supply and demand of onion and garlic.

Friction correction for model ship resistance and propulsion tests in ice at NRC's OCRE-RC

  • Lau, Michael
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.413-420
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    • 2018
  • This paper documents the result of a preliminary analysis on the influence of hull-ice friction coefficient on model resistance and power predictions and their correlation to full-scale measurements. The study is based on previous model-scale/full-scale correlations performed on the National Research Council - Ocean, Coastal, and River Engineering Research Center's (NRC/OCRE-RC) model test data. There are two objectives for the current study: (1) to validate NRC/OCRE-RC's modeling standards in regarding to its practice of specifying a CFC (Correlation Friction Coefficient) of 0.05 for all its ship models; and (2) to develop a correction methodology for its resistance and propulsion predictions when the model is prepared with an ice friction coefficient slightly deviated from the CFC of 0.05. The mean CFC of 0.056 and 0.050 for perfect correlation as computed from the resistance and power analysis, respectively, have justified NRC/OCRE-RC's selection of 0.05 for the CFC of all its models. Furthermore, a procedure for minor friction corrections is developed.