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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Measuring the Public Service Quality Using Process Mining: Focusing on N City's Building Licensing Complaint Service (프로세스 마이닝을 이용한 공공서비스의 품질 측정: N시의 건축 인허가 민원 서비스를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jung Seung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.35-52
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    • 2019
  • As public services are provided in various forms, including e-government, the level of public demand for public service quality is increasing. Although continuous measurement and improvement of the quality of public services is needed to improve the quality of public services, traditional surveys are costly and time-consuming and have limitations. Therefore, there is a need for an analytical technique that can measure the quality of public services quickly and accurately at any time based on the data generated from public services. In this study, we analyzed the quality of public services based on data using process mining techniques for civil licensing services in N city. It is because the N city's building license complaint service can secure data necessary for analysis and can be spread to other institutions through public service quality management. This study conducted process mining on a total of 3678 building license complaint services in N city for two years from January 2014, and identified process maps and departments with high frequency and long processing time. According to the analysis results, there was a case where a department was crowded or relatively few at a certain point in time. In addition, there was a reasonable doubt that the increase in the number of complaints would increase the time required to complete the complaints. According to the analysis results, the time required to complete the complaint was varied from the same day to a year and 146 days. The cumulative frequency of the top four departments of the Sewage Treatment Division, the Waterworks Division, the Urban Design Division, and the Green Growth Division exceeded 50% and the cumulative frequency of the top nine departments exceeded 70%. Higher departments were limited and there was a great deal of unbalanced load among departments. Most complaint services have a variety of different patterns of processes. Research shows that the number of 'complementary' decisions has the greatest impact on the length of a complaint. This is interpreted as a lengthy period until the completion of the entire complaint is required because the 'complement' decision requires a physical period in which the complainant supplements and submits the documents again. In order to solve these problems, it is possible to drastically reduce the overall processing time of the complaints by preparing thoroughly before the filing of the complaints or in the preparation of the complaints, or the 'complementary' decision of other complaints. By clarifying and disclosing the cause and solution of one of the important data in the system, it helps the complainant to prepare in advance and convinces that the documents prepared by the public information will be passed. The transparency of complaints can be sufficiently predictable. Documents prepared by pre-disclosed information are likely to be processed without problems, which not only shortens the processing period but also improves work efficiency by eliminating the need for renegotiation or multiple tasks from the point of view of the processor. The results of this study can be used to find departments with high burdens of civil complaints at certain points of time and to flexibly manage the workforce allocation between departments. In addition, as a result of analyzing the pattern of the departments participating in the consultation by the characteristics of the complaints, it is possible to use it for automation or recommendation when requesting the consultation department. In addition, by using various data generated during the complaint process and using machine learning techniques, the pattern of the complaint process can be found. It can be used for automation / intelligence of civil complaint processing by making this algorithm and applying it to the system. This study is expected to be used to suggest future public service quality improvement through process mining analysis on civil service.

The Effects of the Perceived Motivation Type toward Corporate Social Responsibility Activities on Customer Loyalty (기업사회책임활동적인지인지동기류형대고객충성도적영향(企业社会责任活动的认知认知动机类型对顾客忠诚度的影响))

  • Kim, Kyung-Jin;Park, Jong-Chul
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 2009
  • Corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities have been shown to be potential factors that can improve corporate image and increase the ability of corporations to compete. However, most previous studies related to CSR activities investigated how these activities influence product and corporate evaluation, as well as corporate image. In addition, some researchers treated consumers' perceptions of corporate motives as moderator variables in evaluating the relationship between corporate social responsibilities and consumer response. However, motive-based theories have some weaknesses. Corporate social responsibility activities cause two motives(egoistic vs. altruistic) for consumers, but recently, Vlachos et al. (2008) argued that these motives should be segmented. Thus, it is possible to transform the original theory into a modified theory model (persuasion knowledge model, PKM). Vlachos et al. (2008) segmented corporate social responsibility motives into four types and compared the effects of these motives on customer loyalty. Prior studies have proved that CSR activities with positive motives have positive influences on customer loyalty. However, the psychological reasons underlying this finding have not been determined empirically. Thus, the objectives of this research are twofold. First, we attempt to determine why most customers favor companies that they feel have positive motives for their corporate social responsibility activities. Second, we attempt to measure the effects of consumers' reciprocity when society benefits from corporate social responsibility activities. The following research hypotheses are constructed. H1: Values-driven motives for corporate social responsibility activities have a positive influence on the perceived reciprocity. H2: Stakeholder-driven motives for corporate social responsibility activities have a negative influence on the perceived reciprocity. H3: Egoistic-driven motives for corporate social responsibility activities have a negative influence on perceived reciprocity. H4: Strategic-driven motives for corporate social responsibility activities have a negative influence on perceived reciprocity. H5: Perceived reciprocity for corporate social responsibility activities has a positive influence on consumer loyalty. A single company is selected as a research subject to understand how the motives behind corporate social responsibility influence consumers' perceived reciprocity and customer loyalty. A total sample of 200 respondents was selected for a pilot test. In addition, to ensure a consistent response, we ensured that the respondents were older than 20 years of age. The surveys of 172 respondents (males-82, females-90) were analyzed after 28 invalid questionnaires were excluded. Based on our cutoff criteria, the model fit the data reasonably well. Values-driven motives for corporate social responsibility activities had a positive effect on perceived reciprocity (t = 6.75, p < .001), supporting H1. Morales (2005) also found that consumers appreciate a company's social responsibility efforts and the benefits provided by these efforts to society. Stakeholder-driven motives for corporate social responsibility activities did not affect perceived reciprocity (t = -.049, p > .05). Thus, H2 was rejected. Egoistic-driven motives (t = .3.11, p < .05) and strategic-driven (t = -4.65, p < .05) motives had a negative influence on perceived reciprocity, supporting H3 and H4, respectively. Furthermore, perceived reciprocity had a positive influence on consumer loyalty (t = 4.24, p < .05), supporting H5. Thus, compared with the general public, undergraduate students appear to be more influenced by egoistic-driven motives. We draw the following conclusions from our research findings. First, value-driven attributions have a positive influence on perceived reciprocity. However, stakeholder-driven attributions have no significant effects on perceived reciprocity. Moreover, both egoistic-driven attributions and strategic-driven attributions have a negative influence on perceived reciprocity. Second, when corporate social responsibility activities align with consumers' reciprocity, the efforts directed towards social responsibility activities have a positive influence on customer loyalty. In this study, we examine whether the type of motivation affects consumer responses to CSR, and in particular, we evaluate how CSR motives can influence a key internal factor (perceived reciprocity) and behavioral consumer outcome (customer loyalty). We demonstrate that perceived reciprocity plays a mediating role in the relationship between CSR motivation and customer loyalty. Our study extends the research on consumer CSR-inferred motivations, positing them as a direct indicator of consumer responses. Furthermore, we convincingly identify perceived reciprocity as a sub-process mediating the effect of CSR attributions on customer loyalty. Future research investigating the ultimate behavior and financial impact of CSR should consider that the impacts of CSR also stem from perceived reciprocity. The results of this study also have important managerial implications. First, the central role that reciprocity plays indicates that managers should routinely measure how much their socially responsible actions create perceived reciprocity. Second, understanding how consumers' perceptions of CSR corporate motives relate to perceived reciprocity and customer loyalty can help managers to monitor and enhance these consumer outcomes through marketing initiatives and management of CSR-induced attribution processes. The results of this study will help corporations to understand the relative importance of the four different motivations types in influencing perceived reciprocity.

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A Study on Hoslital Nurses' Preferred Duty Shift and Duty Hours (병원 간호사의 선호근무시간대에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Gyeong-Sik;Jeong, Geum-Hui
    • The Korean Nurse
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 1997
  • The duty shifts of hospital nurses not only affect nurses' physical and mental health but also present various personnel management problems which often result in high turnover rates. In this context a study was carried out from October to November 1995 for a period of two months to find out the status of hospital nurses' duty shift patterns, and preferred duty hours and fixed duty shifts. The study population was 867 RNs working in five general hospitals located in Seoul and its vicinity. The questionnaire developed by the writer was used for data collection. The response rate was 85.9 percent or 745 returns. The SAS program was used for data analysis with the computation of frequencies, percentages and Chi square test. The findings of the study are as follows: 1. General characteristics of the study population: 56 percent of respondents was (25 years group and 76.5 percent were "single": the predominant proportion of respondents was junior nursing college graduates(92.2%) and have less than 5 years nursing experience in hospitals(65.5%). For their future working plan in nursing profession, nearly 50% responded as uncertain The reasons given for their career plan was predominantly 'personal growth and development' rather than financial reasons. 2. The interval for rotations of duty stations was found to be mostly irregular(56.4%) while others reported as weekly(16.1%), monthly(12.9%), and fixed terms(4.6%). 3. The main problems related to duty shifts particularly the evening and night duty nurses reported were "not enough time for the family, " "afraid of security problems after the work when returning home late at night." and "lack of leisure time". "problems in physical and physiological adjustment." "problems in family life." "lack of time for interactions with fellow nurses" etc. 4. The forty percent of respondents reported to have '1-2 times' of duty shift rotations while all others reported that '0 time'. '2-3 times'. 'more than 3 times' etc. which suggest the irregularity in duty shift rotations. 5. The majority(62.8%) of study population found to favor the rotating system of duty stations. The reasons for favoring the rotation system were: the opportunity for "learning new things and personal development." "better human relations are possible. "better understanding in various duty stations." "changes in monotonous routine job" etc. The proportion of those disfavor the rotating 'system was 34.7 percent. giving the reasons of"it impedes development of specialization." "poor job performances." "stress factors" etc. Furthermore. respondents made the following comments in relation to the rotation of duty stations: the nurses should be given the opportunity to participate in the. decision making process: personal interest and aptitudes should be considered: regular intervals for the rotations or it should be planned in advance. etc. 6. For the future career plan. the older. married group with longer nursing experiences appeared to think the nursing as their lifetime career more likely than the younger. single group with shorter nursing experiences ($x^2=61.19.{\;}p=.000;{\;}x^2=41.55.{\;}p=.000$). The reason given for their future career plan regardless of length of future service, was predominantly "personal growth and development" rather than financial reasons. For further analysis, the group those with the shorter career plan appeared to claim "financial reasons" for their future career more readily than the group who consider the nursing job as their lifetime career$(x^2$= 11.73, p=.003) did. This finding suggests the need for careful .considerations in personnel management of nursing administration particularly when dealing with the nurses' career development. The majority of respondents preferred the fixed day shift. However, further analysis of those preferred evening shift by age and civil status, "< 25 years group"(15.1%) and "single group"(13.2) were more likely to favor the fixed evening shift than > 25 years(6.4%) and married(4.8%)groups. This differences were statistically significant ($x^2=14.54, {\;}p=.000;{\;}x^2=8.75, {\;}p=.003$). 7. A great majority of respondents(86.9% or n=647) found to prefer the day shifts. When the four different types of duty shifts(Types A. B. C, D) were presented, 55.0 percent of total respondents preferred the A type or the existing one followed by D type(22.7%). B type(12.4%) and C type(8.2%). 8. When the condition of monetary incentives for the evening(20% of salary) and night shifts(40% of. salary) of the existing duty type was presented. again the day shift appeared to be the most preferred one although the rate was slightly lower(66.4% against 86.9%). In the case of evening shift, with the same incentive, the preference rates for evening and night shifts increased from 11.0 to 22.4 percent and from 0.5 to 3.0 percent respectively. When the age variable was controlled. < 25 yrs group showed higher rates(31.6%. 4.8%) than those of > 25 yrs group(15.5%. 1.3%) respectively preferring the evening and night shifts(p=.000). The civil status also seemed to operate on the preferences of the duty shifts as the single group showed lower rate(69.0%) for day duty against 83. 6% of the married group. and higher rates for evening and night duties(27.2%. 15.1%) respectively against those of the married group(3.8%. 1.8%) while a higher proportion of the married group(83. 6%) preferred the day duties than the single group(69.0%). These differences were found to be statistically all significant(p=.001). 9. The findings on preferences of three different types of fixed duty hours namely, B, C. and D(with additional monetary incentives) are as follows in order of preference: B type(12hrs a day, 3days a wk): day shift(64.1%), evening shift(26.1%). night shift(6.5%) C type(12hrs a day. 4days a wk) : evening shift(49.2%). day shift(32.8%), night shift(11.5%) D type(10hrs a day. 4days a wk): showed the similar trend as B type. The findings of higher preferences on the evening and night duties when the incentives are given. as shown above, suggest the need for the introductions of different patterns of duty hours and incentive measures in order to overcome the difficulties in rostering the nursing duties. However, the interpretation of the above data, particularly the C type, needs cautions as the total number of respondents is very small(n=61). It requires further in-depth study. In conclusion. it seemed to suggest that the patterns of nurses duty hours and shifts in the most hospitals in the country have neither been tried for different duty types nor been flexible. The stereotype rostering system of three shifts and insensitiveness for personal life aspect of nurses seemed to be prevailing. This study seems to support that irregular and frequent rotations of duty shifts may be contributing factors for most nurses' maladjustment problems in physical and mental health. personal and family life which eventually may result in high turnover rates. In order to overcome the increasing problems in personnel management of hospital nurses particularly in rostering of evening and night duty shifts, which may related to eventual high turnover rates, the findings of this study strongly suggest the need for an introduction of new rostering systems including fixed duties and appropriate incentive measures for evenings and nights which the most nurses want to avoid, In considering the nursing care of inpatients is the round-the clock business. the practice of the nursing duty shift system is inevitable. In this context, based on the findings of this study. the following are recommended: 1. The further in-depth studies on duty shifts and hours need to be undertaken for the development of appropriate and effective rostering systems for hospital nurses. 2. An introduction of appropriate incentive measures for evening and night duty shifts along with organizational considerations such as the trials for preferred duty time bands, duty hours, and fixed duty shifts should be considered if good quality of care for the patients be maintained for the round the clock. This may require an initiation of systematic research and development activities in the field of hospital nursing administration as a part of permanent system in the hospital. 3. Planned and regular intervals, orientation and training, and professional and personal growth should be considered for the rotation of different duty stations or units. 4. In considering the higher degree of preferences in the duty type of "10hours a day, 4days a week" shown in this study, it would be worthwhile to undertake the R&D type studies in large hospital settings.

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A Study on Need Assessment in Health Promotion Programs for Developing Nursing Centers - Breast Self Examination- (간호센타 개발을 위한 건강증진 프로그램 요구사정 연구-유방자가검진 프로그램을 중심으로-)

  • Park, In-Hyae;Kang, Hae-Young;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Ryu, Hyun-Sook
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.21-36
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study was to assess the needs of breast self examination education (BSEE) programs for developing nursing centers. A first, we reviewed the literature of activity and management-related factors of nursing centers: and, second. we used a questionnaire to discover the degree of knowledge, attitude, and practice on breast cancer, as well as an individual's intention to participate BSEE program. 1. Reviewing the literatures of nursing center activities. Nursing centers which were administered by a professional nurse are an ideal site for faculty and student practices. With the use of nursing models of health. professional nurses in nursing centers diagnose and treat human responses to potential and actual health problems and offer holistic, client-centered health service. In nursing centers professional nursing services include health education, health promotion, and health-related research. A nursing center is comprised of the advisory and exacutive commitee; the advisory commitee serves consultants and links community needs to the nursing center, while the director of the exacutive commitee identifies the potential resources to generate funds, support, and facilitate the activities of staffs in a nursing center. Nursing centers mobilize various financal resources for reimbursement of services from college and insurance companies, collect minimum service fees from the client, and further collect fees for providing programs to community groups, this also includes membership fees, and donations. The services provided by nursing centers focus on services related to primary prevention, health maintenance & health promotion, direct nursing care for acute & chronic diseases, and holistic care for actual and potential health problems. The client satisfaction for the services was high. Students also showed positive reponses for their clinical experiences and independent working conditions. 2. The degree of knowledge, attitudes, and practices for breast cancer. and an individual's intention to participate in the BSEE program. The subjects of this study were 308 females in K-city in the Republic of Korea. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. The mean age of the respondents was 35.0 years old. Those who already participated in the BSEE were 64.9%, and those who had support and encouragement to practice BSE from significant others were 25.1 %. Clients intent to participate in the BSEE were 37.0%. The mean score of knowledge(2.4 out of 5 points) and practices(1.8 out of 5 points) for breast cancer were quite low, but the mean score of attitudes was relatively positive04.5 out of 20 point) for breast cancer. Those who already had BSEE showed significantly high scores in knowledge(t=6.48, p<0.01), attitudes (t=10.54, p<0.01). and practices(t=57.07, p<0.001) for breast cancer than those who had not participated in the BSEE. In all age groups no intention to participate in the BSEE was higher than who the intention to participate. These findings suggest some strategies should be developed to increase the awareness of breast cancer's early detection.

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Empirical Analysis of Consumer Behavior on the Internet Shopping Mall Choice from the Schema Perspective: Comparison Between Bricks & Clicks and Pure-Player Shopping Mall (스키마 관점에서 살펴본 인터넷 쇼핑몰 선택에 대한 소비자행동의 이해: Bricks & Clicks와 Pure-Player 인터넷 쇼핑몰 비교를 중심으로)

  • Chung, Nam-Ho;Lee, Kun-Chang
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.165-186
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    • 2007
  • With the advent of a wide variety of Internet shopping malls, consumers can choose a best appealing shopping mall from among the Bricks-and-Clicks and Pure-Player malls. Pure-Players launched their operation grandiosely with the early stage of Internet use in 1995. However, after the burst of Dot-com company bubbles in 1997, Pure-Players introduce various types of business models to meet potential needs of consumers. While Pure-Players suffer skeptical views from market analysts as well as consumers, traditional offline companies learned important lessons from Dot-com companies collapse phenomena, and expanded their business channels into online in the name of Bricks-and-Clicks. Nowadays, Bricks-and-Clicks successfully establish in the market as one of reliable business partners among consumers. Therefore, it is no surprise that recent competitions between Bricks-and Clicks and Pure-Players become fiercer than ever to attract potential customers to their websites. In this situation, consumers can choose a shopping mall to their best satisfaction. Consumers can enjoy both offline and online options for shopping because Bricks-and Clicks provide both offline and online channels to consumers, which is compared with Pure-Players offering only online channel. Offline channel is unique in providing consumers with chances to touch and feel target products and services. Meanwhile, online channel is considered very viable and convenient shopping options for consumers. In this respect, it is easily assumed that consumers will show different online shopping behavior when they have to choose either Bricks-and-Clicks mall or Pure-Player mall for the sake of shopping. Remaining research issue in this case is how much consumers' schema would influence online shopping behavior between Bricks-and-Clicks and Pure-Players. Basically, schema is a framework for synthetic information recognition that individual consumers have and is very characteristic in that it focuses not on fragmentary facts but on the combination of various causes affecting results. Consumers' schema is closely represented by trust, structural assurance, and perceived relative advantage towards a specific type of shopping mall. In literature, there exist a lot of studies comparing Bricks-and-Clicks and Pure-Players. However, there is no study to pursue the analysis of consumer behaviors comparing Bricks-and Clicks and Pure-Players from the schema perspective. Therefore, this study aims to investigate this research gap. Empirical analysis is adopted by garnering valid questionnaires from 514 Internet shopping mall users. 237 were mainly using Bricks-and-Clicks for shopping, while 277 were found to visit Pure-Players for shopping. PLS was applied to analyze the survey data to verify the proposed research hypotheses. Findings from the empirical test results are as follows. First, consumers perceive more trust and relative advantage in Pure-Players, comparing with Bricks-and-Clicks. This result is against widely-accepted perception that Bricks-and-Clicks would be perceived by consumers as more trustworthy and relatively advantageous because they have offline reputation and stores. Therefore, it becomes more obvious that Internet is becoming daily necessaries, and consumers increasingly feel very comfortable in using the Internet for their own personal purposes. Second, consumers have firm faith in transaction safety, regardless Bricks-and-Clicks and Pure-Players. This seems due to the fact that most of shopping malls showing dubious transaction safety have no place in the market. In a nutshell, empirical results tell us that Pure-Players will grow very much in the future, to the extent that consumers perceive no difference in comparison with Bricks-and-Clicks. Besides, consumers' schema accumulated through trust and perceived relative advantage plays crucial role in determining consumer behavior.

Stock Assessment and Management Implications of Small Yellow Croker in Korean Waters (한국 근해 참조기의 자원평가 및 관리방안)

  • ZHANG Chang Ik;KIM Suam;YOON Seong-Bong
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.282-290
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    • 1992
  • Based on surplus production models using fishery data for the last 20 years, a stock assessment was conducted for the small yellow croaker in Korean waters. The maximum sustainable yields (MSY) from the Schaefer and Fox models were estimated to be 37,000 metric tons (mt) and 33,450 mt. Zhang's model using time-series biomass with instantaneous coefficients of fishing mortality (F) and using time-series biomass and catch yielded MSY estimates of 45,328 mt and 40,160 mt, respectively. A yield-per-recruit analysis showed that the current yield per recruit of about 20g with F= 1.11 $yr^{-l}$, where the age at first capture $(t_c)$ is 0.604, was much lower than the maximum possible yield per recruit of 43g. Fixing $t_c$ at the current level and reducing fishing intensity (F) from 1.11 $yr^{-l}$ to 0.4 $yr^{-l}$ yielded only a small increase in predicted yield per recruit, from 20 to 25g. However, estimated yield per recruit increased to 43g by increasing $(t_c)$ from the current age (0.604) to age three with F fixed at the current level. This age at first capture corresponded to the optimal length which was obtained from the $F_{0.1}$ method. According to the analysis of stock recovery strategies employing the Zhang model, the optimum equilibrium biomass $(B^*_{MSY})$ which produces the maximum yield could be achieved after approximately five years at the lower fishing intensity (F=0.5).

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A Study on the Design of Case-based Reasoning Office Knowledge Recommender System for Office Professionals (사례기반추론을 이용한 사무지식 추천시스템)

  • Kim, Myong-Ok;Na, Jung-Ah
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.131-146
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    • 2011
  • It is becoming more essential than ever for office professionals to become competent in information collection/gathering and problem solving in today's global business society. In particular, office professionals do not only assist simple chores but are also forced to make decisions as quickly and efficiently as possible in problematic situations that can end in either profit or loss to their company. Since office professionals rely heavily on their tacit knowledge to solve problems that arise in everyday business situations, it is truly helpful and efficient to refer to similar business cases from the past and share or reuse such previous business knowledge for better performance results. Case-based reasoning(CBR) is a problem-solving method which utilizes previous similar cases to solve problems. Through CBR, the closest case to the current business situation can be searched and retrieved from the case or knowledge base and can be referred to for a new solution. This reduces the time and resources needed and increase success probability. The main purpose of this study is to design a system called COKRS(Case-based reasoning Office Knowledge Recommender System) and develop a prototype for it. COKRS manages cases and their meta data, accepts key words from the user and searches the casebase for the most similar past case to the input keyword, and communicates with users to collect information about the quality of the case provided and continuously apply the information to update values on the similarity table. Core concepts like system architecture, definition of a case, meta database, similarity table have been introduced, and also an algorithm to retrieve all similar cases from past work history has also been proposed. In this research, a case is best defined as a work experience in office administration. However, defining a case in office administration was not an easy task in reality. We surveyed 10 office professionals in order to get an idea of how to define a case in office administration and found out that in most cases any type of office work is to be recorded digitally and/or non-digitally. Therefore, we have defined a record or document case as for COKRS. Similarity table was composed of items of the result of job analysis for office professionals conducted in a previous research. Values between items of the similarity table were initially set to those from researchers' experiences and literature review. The results of this study could also be utilized in other areas of business for knowledge sharing wherever it is necessary and beneficial to share and learn from past experiences. We expect this research to be a reference for researchers and developers who are in this area or interested in office knowledge recommendation system based on CBR. Focus group interview(FGI) was conducted with ten administrative assistants carefully selected from various areas of business. They were given a chance to try out COKRS in an actual work setting and make some suggestions for future improvement. FGI has identified the user-interface for saving and searching cases for keywords as the most positive aspect of COKRS, and has identified the most urgently needed improvement as transforming tacit knowledge and knowhow into recorded documents more efficiently. Also, the focus group has mentioned that it is essential to secure enough support, encouragement, and reward from the company and promote positive attitude and atmosphere for knowledge sharing for everybody's benefit in the company.

The Effects of Family Structure and Socialization Influences on Compulsive Buying: A Life Course Study in Thailand (가족구조와 사회화가 강박구매에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 태국의 인생행로연구를 중심으로)

  • Nguyen, Hung Vu;Moschis, George P.;Shannon, Randall;Gotthelf, Kristian
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2009
  • Compulsive consumption is regarded as a global phenomenon that can adversely affect consumer well-being. Although the topic has been studied in different cultural settings, we have seen relatively little theory development and explanations of compulsive behavior Nearly all previous empirical studies attempt to explain this behavior by correlating measures of compulsive behavior with independent variables taken within the same time frame. However, recent developments in social sciences suggest that such a phenomenon may best understood in the context of the person's earlier-in-life experiences. Using the life course paradigm as an overarching framework, the present research extends previous work on this topic. Following hypotheses were drawn from literature review: H1: The earlier in childhood and adolescence a person experiences family dislocation, the greater his or her likelihood of exhibiting compulsive behaviors in adulthood. H2: The earlier in life the young person experienced family dislocation, the greater the number of family disruption events the young person experienced prior entering adulthood years. H3: Family dislocation leads to (a) increased frequency of socio.oriented family communications and (b) decreased frequency of concept-oriented family communication. H4: Young adults who were raised in families characterized by a strong socio-oriented communication structure are more likely to exhibit compulsive consumption tendencies than those who were raised in families characterized by a weak socio-oriented family communication structure. H5: Young adults who were raised in families characterized by a strong concept-oriented communication structure are less likely to exhibit compulsive consumption tendencies than those who were raised in families characterized by a week concept-oriented family communication structure. H6: The relationship between family disruption events experienced during adolescence and perceived stressfulness of these events is moderated by (a) global family support, (b) emotional family support, and (c) material family support. Those reporting higher levels of family support as teenagers are less likely to report experiencing stress due to family disruption events. H7: Perceived stressfulness of family disruption events experienced during adolescent years are associated with compulsive consumption tendencies in early adulthood. H8: The greater the number of family disruption events young adults experienced during their adolescent years the more frequent was their communication about consumption with their peers. H9: The more frequent was the young persons' communication with their peers about consumption during their adolescent years, the more likely they are to report compulsive buying tendencies as young adults. We use a sample of 120 Thai undergraduate students attending classes taught in English as part of a four-year international program. Product-moment correlations, hierarchical regression analysis and partial correlation were used to analyze data. Results of testing hypotheses showed that hypothesis 2, 4, 7 and 9 were supported and hypothesis 1, 3, 5, 6 and 8 were not supported. Our study did not find a significant relationship between the age when a person experienced family dislocation and their compulsive behavior tendencies expressed as young adults. We did not find a significant relationship between family dislocation and family communication structures. But we found a significant positive relationship between socio-oriented communication structure and compulsive buying and a significant relationship between our peer communication and compulsive buying measures. Also we found perceived stressfulness due to the disruptive events to have a significant positive relationship between the perceived stressfulness and compulsive buying. Implications from these findings, limitations of this research and future research suggestions were discussed.

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The Effects of Metaphors in the Interface of Smartphone Applications on Users' Intention to Use (사용자환경의 메타포가 스마트폰 애플리케이션 사용의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Wonjin;Hong, Suk-Ki
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.255-279
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    • 2014
  • It is not too much to say that smartphones have become an essential part of our lives due to their versatility. Nevertheless, they still have less overall capabilities than their desktop counterparts. Specifically, they have small screens and low resolutions, which make their applications difficult to have a usable interface. To account for these limitations, the interface of smartphone applications should be designed carefully and properly. Good interface design to any application is critical. However, a comprehensive information systems (IS) literature review found that there has been little research on the user interface design of smartphone applications. More specifically, there has been little empirical evidence and understanding about how metaphors, an imaginative way of describing objects and concepts, in the user interface of smartphone applications affect users' intention to use the applications. Thereby, the research goals of this study are to examine 1) the effects of the metaphors in the user interface of smartphone applications on the interaction between users and applications and 2) the effects of mediating variables including the interaction between users and applications, users' beliefs and attitudes, on users' intention to use the applications. A survey was conducted to collect data. University students and practitioners participated in the survey. A 24-item questionnaire was developed on a 5-point Likert-type scale. The measurement items were mostly adapted from the previous studies in the IS literature and modified to fit the context of this study. First, a principal component factor analysis was performed to explore the inter-relationships among a set of variables. The analysis showed that most of the items loaded quite strongly on the six components. The analysis also revealed the six components with eigenvalues exceeding 1, explaining a total of 70.7 per cent of the variance. The reliabilities of the items were also checked. Most Cronbach alpha values were above 0.8, so the scales were considered reliable. In sum, the results of the analysis support the decision to retain the six factors for further investigation. Next, the structural model was analyzed with AMOS structural equation modeling. The values of GFI, AGFI, NFI, TLI, CFI, and RMSEA were checked. The values showed that the research model considerably have a good fit in general. Next, the convergent and discriminant validities of all constructs were examined. The values for the standardized regression weights and critical ration (CR) indicated sufficient convergent validity for all constructs. In addition, the square root of the average variance extracted (AVE) of each construct was compared with its correlations with all other constructs. The results supported discriminant validity for all constructs. In sum, the results of analysis demonstrated adequate convergent and discriminant validities for all constructs. Finally, path coefficients between the variables were examined. Methphor was found to have an impact on interaction (${\beta}$ = .457, p = .000). There were also significant effects of the interaction on perceived usefulness (${\beta}$ = .273, p = .000) and ease of use (${\beta}$ = .405, p = .000). User attitude was significantly influenced by these two beliefs, perceived usefulness (${\beta}$ = .386, p = .000) and ease of use (${\beta}$ = .347, p = .000) respectively. Further, the results of analysis found that users' intention to use smartphone applications was significantly influenced by user attitude (${\beta}$ = .567, p = .000). Based upon the analyses, all hypotheses were supported. This study found that the metaphors used in the interface of smartphone applications affect not only the interaction between users and applications, but also users' intention to use the applications through the mediating variables, perceived usefulness and ease of use. These findings imply that if the metaphors used in the user interface of application are easy enough to understand for smartphone users, then the application can be perceived useful and easy to use, which in turn make users to have an intention to use the application. In conclusion, this study contributed not only to validate and extend Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) partially, but also to develop the construct of metaphor in smartphone settings. However, since a single empirical study cannot be enough to validate the findings, some limitations should be considered.