• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliable index

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Outcome of Arthroscopic Suture Bridge Technique for Rotator Cuff Tear: Short Term Clinical Outcome In Full-thickness Tear With Fatty Degeneration Less Than Moderate Degree (회전근 개 파열에 대한 관절경적 교량형 봉합술의 결과: 지방 변성이 중등도 이하인 전층 파열에 대한 단기 추시 임상적 결과)

  • Cheon, Sang-Jin;Hur, Joon-Oh;Suh, Jeung-Tak;Yoo, Chong-Il
    • Clinics in Shoulder and Elbow
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.180-188
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: We evaluate the short-term clinical outcome of arthroscopic rotator cuff tendon repair with suture-bridge technique in patients with full thickness rotator cuff tear. Materials and Methods: 29 (male:17, female:12) consecutive shoulders treated with this index procedure and early rehabilitation were enrolled. Mean age was 56.4 years (range, 34~73 years) and mean follow-up period was 13 months (range, 12-15 months). Clinical outcomes were evaluated by using the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) score, the Korean Shoulder Scoring System (KSS) and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). Postoperative cuff integrity was evaluated through magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and categorized by Sugaya classification. Results: Postoperative UCLA scores improved from 16.4 to 31.6 (p< 0.05) and KSS scores showed 88 at 6 months and 92 at last follow up. Preoperative VAS score was 8.6, which was decreased to 2.1 at 3 months and 1.4 at 6 months postoperatively. 28 patients (96.5%) had increase in range of motion. The follow up MRI was taken in 15 shoulders and the cuff integrity was type I in 6 cases, type II in 7, type III in 1 and type V in 1 by Sugaya classification. Conclusion: Arthroscopic suture-bridge technique resulted in good or excellent clinical outcome in 96.5% of the cases, so we think this technique is one of the reliable procedure for full-thicknes rotator cuff tear.

A Study about the Correlation between Information on Stock Message Boards and Stock Market Activity (온라인 주식게시판 정보와 주식시장 활동에 관한 상관관계 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun Mo;Yoon, Ho Young;Soh, Ry;Park, Jae Hong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.559-575
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    • 2014
  • Individual investors are increasingly flocking to message boards to seek, clarify, and exchange information. Businesses like Seekingalpha.com and business magazines like Fortune are evaluating, synthesizing, and reporting the comments made on message boards or blogs. In March of 2012, Yahoo! Finance Message Boards recorded 45 million unique visitors per month followed by AOL Money and Finance (19.8 million), and Google Finance (1.6 million) [McIntyre, 2012]. Previous studies in the finance literature suggest that online communities often provide more accurate information than analyst forecasts [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006]. Some studies empirically show that the volume of posts in online communities have a positive relationship with market activities (e.g., trading volumes) [Antweiler and Frank, 2004; Bagnoli et al., 1999; Das and Chen, 2007; Tumarkin and Whitelaw, 2001]. The findings indicate that information in online communities does impact investors' investment decisions and trading behaviors. However, research explicating the correlation between information on online communities and stock market activities (e.g., trading volume) is still evolving. Thus, it is important to ask whether a volume of posts on online communities influences trading volumes and whether trading volumes also influence these communities. Online stock message boards offer two different types of information, which can be explained using an economic and a psychological perspective. From a purely economic perspective, one would expect that stock message boards would have a beneficial effect, since they provide timely information at a much lower cost [Bagnoli et al., 1999; Clarkson et al., 2006; Birchler and Butler, 2007]. This indicates that information in stock message boards may provide valuable information investors can use to predict stock market activities and thus may use to make better investment decisions. On the other hand, psychological studies have shown that stock message boards may not necessarily make investors more informed. The related literature argues that confirmation bias causes investors to seek other investors with the same opinions on these stock message boards [Chen and Gu, 2009; Park et al., 2013]. For example, investors may want to share their painful investment experiences with others on stock message boards and are relieved to find they are not alone. In this case, the information on these stock message boards mainly reflects past experience or past information and not valuable and predictable information for market activities. This study thus investigates the two roles of stock message boards-providing valuable information to make future investment decisions or sharing past experiences that reflect mainly investors' painful or boastful stories. If stock message boards do provide valuable information for stock investment decisions, then investors will use this information and thereby influence stock market activities (e.g., trading volume). On the contrary, if investors made investment decisions and visit stock message boards later, they will mainly share their past experiences with others. In this case, past activities in the stock market will influence the stock message boards. These arguments indicate that there is a correlation between information posted on stock message boards and stock market activities. The previous literature has examined the impact of stock sentiments or the number of posts on stock market activities (e.g., trading volume, volatility, stock prices). However, the studies related to stock sentiments found it difficult to obtain significant results. It is not easy to identify useful information among the millions of posts, many of which can be just noise. As a result, the overall sentiments of stock message boards often carry little information for future stock movements [Das and Chen, 2001; Antweiler and Frank, 2004]. This study notes that as a dependent variable, trading volume is more reliable for capturing the effect of stock message board activities. The finance literature argues that trading volume is an indicator of stock price movements [Das et al., 2005; Das and Chen, 2007]. In this regard, this study investigates the correlation between a number of posts (information on stock message boards) and trading volume (stock market activity). We collected about 100,000 messages of 40 companies at KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) from Paxnet, the most popular Korean online stock message board. The messages we collected were divided into in-trading and after-trading hours to examine the correlation between the numbers of posts and trading volumes in detail. Also we collected the volume of the stock of the 40 companies. The vector regression analysis and the granger causality test, 3SLS analysis were performed on our panel data sets. We found that the number of posts on online stock message boards is positively related to prior stock trade volume. Also, we found that the impact of the number of posts on stock trading volumes is not statistically significant. Also, we empirically showed the correlation between stock trading volumes and the number of posts on stock message boards. The results of this study contribute to the IS and finance literature in that we identified online stock message board's two roles. Also, this study suggests that stock trading managers should carefully monitor information on stock message boards to understand stock market activities in advance.

Development of a simplified malnutrition screening tool for hospitalized patients and evaluation of its inter-methods reliability (입원환자의 초기영양평가를 위한 단순영양검색도구 개발 및 도구 간 신뢰도 검증)

  • Yun, Oak Hee;Lee, Gyuhwi;Park, Yoon Jung
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.124-133
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The current study was designed for development of a simplified malnutrition screening tool (SMST) for hospitalized patients using readily available laboratory and patient information and for evaluation of its reliability compared to well-established tools, such as PGSGA and NRS-2002. Methods: Anthropometric and biochemical measurements, as well as a few subjective assessments, of 903 patients who were preclassified by their nutritional status according to PGSGA were analyzed. Among them, a combination of factors, including age, BMI, albumin, cholesterol, total protein, hematocrit, and changes in body weight and food intake, were statistically selected as variables for SMST. Results: According to SMST, 620 patients (68.7%) were classified as the normal group and 283 patients (31.3%) were classified as the malnutrition group. Significant differences in age, albumin, TLC, BMI, hemoglobin, hematocrit, total protein, cholesterol, and length of stay were observed between the two groups. For inter-methods reliability, the screening results by SMST were compared with those by PGSGA and NRS-2002. The comparison with PGSGA and NRS-2002 showed 'Substantial agreement' (sensitivity 94.4%, specificity 88.4%, ${\kappa}$ = 0.747) and 'Moderate agreement' (sensitivity 96.1%, specificity 79.5%, ${\kappa}$ = 0.505), respectively, indicating that SMST held high inter-methods reliability. Conclusion: In conclusion, SMST, based on readily available laboratory and patient information and simple subjective assessments on changes in food intake and body weight, may be a useful alternative tool with a simple but reliable risk index, especially in resource-limited domestic hospitals.

Relation of polyunsaturated fatty acid, n-3 fatty acid and n-6 fatty acid intakes and atopic dermatitis in the 9~ 11 year old children: KNHANES 2013 ~ 2015 (9 ~ 11세 아동의 불포화지방산, n-3 지방산 및 n-6 지방산의 섭취와 아토피 피부염 과의 관련성 : 2013 ~ 2015년 국민건강영양조사)

  • Kim, Ji-Myung
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to investigate the relationship between atopic dermatitis and dietary fat and fatty acid (FA) intakes in 9 ~ 11 year old children. Methods: We analyzed data from the combined 2013 ~ 2015 KNHANES (Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey). Subjects were divided into two groups according to atopic dermatitis (AD); with AD and without AD. Data pertaining to macronutrients and FA intakes were obtained by a single 24-h dietary recall. Food sources were identified based on the amounts of total fat and FA consumption according to each food. The associations between each FA intake and atopic dermatitis were analyzed using simple and multiple logistic regression analyses. Age, sex, body mass index (BMI) and income levels were adjusted as covariates. Results: Of the participants, 17.69% suffered from atopic dermatitis. Children with AD had significantly lower fat percentages of total energy and higher carbohydrate percentages of total energy than normal children. Percentages of energy and intakes of polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA), n-3 FA and n-6 FA in children with AD were significantly lower than those in normal children. In the FA, linoleic acid, ${\gamma}$-linoleic acid and ${\alpha}$-linolenic acid levels of children with AD were significantly lower than those of normal children. However, the P/S ratio and n-6/n-3 ratio did not differ significantly between children with AD and normal children. Soybean oil was the main contributor to PUFA, n-3 FA and n-6 FA in both groups, while perilla seed oil and mackerel were the major food sources of n-3 FA in children with atopic dermatitis. Atopic dermatitis was significantly correlated with low-fat and high-carbohydrate diets. The adjusted odds ratios were 0.966, 0.776 and 0.963 for PUFA, n-3 FA, and n-6 FA intakes, respectively. Conclusion: The present study provides reliable evidence regarding the relationship between fat and FA intakes and AD in Korean children 9 ~ 11 years of age.

Salvage with Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty after the Failure of Proximal Humeral Tumor Treatment (근위 상완골 종양 치료 실패 후 역 견관절 전치환물을 이용한 구제술)

  • Jeon, Dae-Geun;Cho, Wan Hyeong;Kim, Bum Suk;Park, Hwanseong
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.505-512
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: Many reconstruction methods have been attempted after an en-bloc resection of the proximal humerus. In particular, the introduction of reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) has made a breakthrough in the functional recovery of the shoulder. Nevertheless, RSA has limitations when the humeral bone stock loss is significant. In addition, it is unclear if RSA is effective in patients showing failure with non-operative treatment of a proximal humeral tumor. Materials and Methods: A reconstruction was performed using an overlapping allograft-RSA composite for 11 patients with a failed proximal humeral construct. Delayed RSA was performed on 6 patients with failed non-operative treatment. The pre- and postoperative Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) score and the complications were addressed. Results: Overlapping allograft-RSA composite afforded a stable construct in 11 failed proximal humeral reconstructions and the patient's chief complaints were resolved. The mean time to the union of overlapped allograft-host junction was 5.5 months. Average preoperative MSTS score of 20.3 point increased to 25.7 point, postoperatively. Four of the six patients who had RSA within 4 years from the index operation showed arm elevation of more than $90^{\circ}$ whereas the remaining 5 patients showed some disability. The complications include one case each of dislocation and aseptic infection, which were resolved by changing the polyethylene liner and scar revision, respectively. None of the 6 patients who underwent delayed RSA after the failure of non-operative treatment showed arm elevation more than $90^{\circ}$. Conclusion: An overlapping allograft-RSA composite is a simple and reliable reconstructive modality in patients with massive bone loss. In patients with metastatic cancer necessitating a surgical resection at presentation, early conversion to RSA is recommended to secure functional recovery.

An Economic Value for the First Precipitation Event during Changma Period (장마철 첫 강수의 경제적 가치)

  • Seo, Kyong-Hwan;Choi, Jin-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2022
  • This study evaluates the economic values for the several first precipitation events during Changma period. The selected three years are 2015, 2019, and 2020, where average precipitation amounts across the 58 Korean stations are 12.8, 20.1 and 13.3 mm, respectively. The four categories are used to assess the values including air quality improvement, water resource acquisition/accumulation, drought mitigation, and forest fire prevention/recovery. Economic values for these three years are estimated 50~150 billion won. Among the four factors considered, the effect of air quality improvement is most highly valued, amounting to 70 to 90% of the total economic values. Wet decomposition of air pollution (PM10, NO2, CO, and SO2) is the primary reason. The next valuable element is water resource acquisition, which is estimated 9~15 billion won. Effects of drought mitigation and fire prevention are deemed relatively small. This study is the first to estimate the value of the precipitation events during Changma onset. An analysis for more Changma years will be performed to achieve a more reliable estimate.

Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.