• 대기
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.141-154
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• 2020

Seasonal forecast is growing in demand, as it provides valuable information for decision making and potential to reduce impact on weather events. This study examines how operational climate prediction systems can be reliable, producing the probability forecast in seasonal scale. A reliability diagram was used, which is a tool for the reliability by comparing probabilities with the corresponding observed frequency. It is proposed for a method grading scales of 1-5 based on the reliability diagram to quantify the reliability. Probabilities are derived from ensemble members using hindcast data. The analysis is focused on skill for 2 m temperature and precipitation from climate prediction systems in KMA, UKMO, and ECMWF, NCEP and JMA. Five categorizations are found depending on variables, seasons and regions. The probability forecast for 2 m temperature can be relied on while that for precipitation is reliable only in few regions. The probabilistic skill in KMA and UKMO is comparable with ECMWF, and the reliabilities tend to increase as the ensemble size and hindcast period increasing.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.53-60
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• 2001

It was confirmed that the life predictive equation by LMP and LMP-ISM are effective only up to 10$^2$hours and can not be used for long times of $10^3~10^5$ hours, but that by ISM can be used for long times creep life prediction with more reliability. The predictive creep life equation of ISM has better reliability than those by LMP and LMP-ISM, and its realizably is getting better for long time creep prediction($10^3~10^5$ h).

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 1995년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.672-675
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• 1995

Because of a sudden growth of the research of fatigue failure, recent machines or structures have been designed by damage tolerance design in many fields. Consequently, it is the most primary factor to clarity the specific character of fatique failure in the design of machines or structures considering reliability. A statistical analysis is required to analyze the outcome of an experiment or a life estimate by reason of that fatigue failure contains lots of random elements. Reliability analysis which has tukenn the place of the existing analyses in the consideration of the uncertainty of a material, is a very efficient way. Even reliability analysis, however, is not a perfect way to analyses the uncertainties of all the materials. This thesis would refer to a newly conceived data analysis that the coefficient of a system could cause the ambiguity of the relationship of an input and output.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제7권6호
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• pp.1061-1070
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• 2014

An iterative hybrid structural dynamic reliability prediction model has been developed under multiple-time interval loads with and without consideration of stochastic structural strength degradation. Firstly, multiple-time interval loads have been substituted by the equivalent interval load. The equivalent interval load and structural strength are assumed as random variables. For structural reliability problem with random and interval variables, the interval variables can be converted to uniformly distributed random variables. Secondly, structural reliability with interval and stochastic variables is computed iteratively using the first order second moment method according to the stress-strength interference theory. Finally, the proposed method is verified by three examples which show that the method is practicable, rational and gives accurate prediction.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.124-130
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• 2015

A stress-strength analysis is used to assess the reliability of a multi-pulse rocket motor system. Main stress is found to be thermal during explosion and the distribution is obtained by simulation. The strength distribution is derived from the results of actual specimen tests. The failure rate of barrier type pulse separation device is estimated.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.991-994
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• 2000

Recently, reliability engineering is regarded as the major field for aerospace and electronics, semiconductor related industry to improve safety and life cycle. And advanced manufacturing systems with high speed and intelligent have been developed for the betterment of machining ability In this case, reliability prediction has also important roll from design procedure to manufacturing and assembly process. Accordingly in this study, reliability evaluation system has been developed for prevention trouble. quality and life cycle improvement extremely for advanced mother machinary.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.20-24
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• 1976

The higher develops the industrial techniques, the more reliability of mac hi nary, equipments and systems want the consumers. So, it is a key to succeed in the new-product development that the consumers can put reliance on the product to be made in the product design stage. This study intends to help the product designer and the system manager by presenting them better reliability prediction techniques. For this purpose, the author built some fundamental reliability system models. And then predict the system reliability by estimating the elemental component's failure rate ${\lambda}_i$, and proposed an evaluation model. And also, a system is wrong according to the component's characteristics' degradation, we must estimate the degradation failure rate (average and standard deviation). For this, the "Moment method" is used.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.319-329
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• 2009

The airbag module is an inflatable restraint system that inflates within 0.05 seconds automatically in a collision to protect the occupants. The airbag fabrics used in the module are required to have the good resilience and strength and also to have retained at least 80% of mechanical properties after using longer than 10 years. In this study, we develop an accelerated test method in order to predict the lifetimes of airbag. In this test, we select temperature and humidity as environmental stresses by analyzing the failure mechanisms of coated and uncoated nylon 66 fabrics. It is found that the degradation of airbag fabrics is effectively accelerated under the combined conditions of high temperature and humidity. Analyzing the results of the accelerated test, the lifetimes of airbag fabrics are predicted to be longer than 10 years.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.305-315
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to propose procedure and methodology for developing failure rate databook which is suitable for Korean operation environment. Methods: To this end, we investigate failure databooks used in foreign countries and study the procedure and methodology for collecting failure data, organizing the data, estimating failure rate and summarizing results. Results: We develop the procedure of development of failure databook, the items for data collection, database schema of part details and part summary and contents of failure databook by considering the application environment in Korea. Conclusion: The results of our research could be utilized for the development of Korean failure rate databook and research of reliability prediction model and could ultimately contribute to improve the accuracy of reliability prediction.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제45권6호
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• pp.183-193
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• 2003

Most construction works on the soft ground adopt instrumentation to manage settlement and stability of the embankment. The rapid progress of the information technologies and the digital data acquisition on the soft ground instrumentation has led to the fast-growing amount of data. Although valuable information about the behaviour of the soft ground may be hiding behind the data, most of the data are used restrictedly only for the management of settlement and stability. One of the critical issues on soft ground instrumentation is the long-term settlement prediction. Some observational settlement analysis methods are used for this purpose. But the reliability of the analysis results is remained in vague. The knowledge could be discovered from a large volume of experiences on the observational settlement analysis. In this article, we present a database to store settlement records and data mining procedure. A large volume of knowledge about observational settlement prediction were collected from the database by applying the filtering algorithm and knowledge discovery algorithm. Statistical analysis revealed that the reliability of observational settlement analysis depends on stay duration and estimated degree of consolidation.