• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.635-642
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 고체로켓의 임무 수행 중 연소실 내압으로 인해 발생하는 고체로켓 케이스의 3가지 고장(응력파괴, 균열파괴, 볼트 체결 부 파손) 확률을 효과적으로 예측하는 기법을 개발하였다. 전체적인 확률계산 과정은 다음과 같다: 1) 고체로켓 모터의 고장모드에 영향을 주는 설계 변수선정 및 확률분포 부여, 2) 연소해석을 통한 로켓의 최대작동압력(maximum expected operating pressure, MEOP)의 확률분포 계산, 3) 케이스의 응력과 변형 형상을 구하기 위한 유한요소해석, 4) 3가지 고장함수에 대한 신뢰도예측의 수행, 계산의 편의를 위해 유한요소모델은 축대칭으로 가정하였고 볼트 체결 부의 접촉을 고려하였다. 효율적인 신뢰도예측을 위해 FORM(first-order reliability method) 기법을 통해 MPP(most probable failure point)를 탐색한 후, LHS(latin hypercube sampling)와 반응표면기법을 적용하여 고장모드를 다항식으로 근사화하며, 중요도 추출법을 적용하여 고장확률을 계산하였다.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.651-656
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• 2014

부식결함은 가스배관의 신뢰성평가 및 정비계획에 유의한 영향을 미친다. 부식결함은 정기적인 ILI를 통해 수집할 수 있지만 ILI 데이터의 효과적인 분석은 아직 미흡한 실정이다. 본 논문은 부식결함이 존재할 때 가스배관의 잔여수명을 예측하는 문제를 다룬다. 실제 운용 환경에서 배관 파라미터는 불확실성의 영향 하에 놓이게 되므로 확률적인 접근방법을 채택한다. 배관의 고장은 그 운용압력이 배관파열압력보다 클 때 발생하는 것으로 볼 수 있다. 따라서 배관의 고장확률은 운용압력이 배관파열압력보다 클 확률로서 정의된다. 이를 계산하기 위해 본 논문에서는 구조공학 분야에서 널리 쓰이는 First Order Reliability Method (FORM) 알고리즘을 이용한다. 배관파열압력을 얻기 위한 모델은 잘 알려진 Battelle 코드를 채택한다. ILI 데이터가 주어질 때 고장확률을 계산하는 과정은 Matlab GUI를 통해 제시하고 특히 부식결함의 클러스터링이 계산결과에 미치는 영향을 논의한다. 본 논문의 결과는 고장확률 추정의 정밀도를 높이고 효율적인 정비정책을 수립하는데 적절한 클러스터링이 필요함을 시사한다.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.6-15
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• 1999

Many studies in the software reliability have attempted to develop a model for predicting the faults of a software module because the application of good prediction models provides the optimal resource allocation during the development period. In this paper, we consider the change request data collected from the field test of the software module that incorporate a functional relation between the faults and some software metrics. To this end, we discuss the general aspect if regression method, the problem of multicollinearity and the measures of model evaluation. We consider four possible regression models including two stepwise regression models and two nonlinear models. Four developed models are evaluated with respect to the predictive quality.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신재생에너지학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.368-371
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• 2008

The optimal operation condition of gasifier is one of the most important parameters to increase efficiency and reliability in IGCC plant. Also the prediction of the syngas composition and quantity must be predicted to carry out process design of the gasification plant. However, the gasifier process licensor are protective with information on process design and optimal gasifier design conditions. So, the most of process studies in the engineering company for gasification plant have carried out to look for key parameters and optimal design conditions using several prediction methods. In this paper, we present the estimated preliminary optimal operation condition of the 300MW Demonstration Entrain Flow Gasifier using Aspen Plus. The gasifier operation temperature considering slag flow was predicted by FactSage software and Annen Model.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제16권12호
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• pp.78-86
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• 1999

The improvement of the water level control is important since it will prevent the steam generator trip so that improve the reliability and credibility of operation system. In this paper, the closed loop system identification is performed which can be used for the system monitoring and prediction of the system response. The model also can be used for the prediction control. Irving model is used as a steam generator model. The plant is an open loop unstable and non-minimum phase system. Fuzzy controller stabilize the system and the stable controller stabilize the system and the stable closed loop system is identified using neural networks. The obtained neural network model is validated using the untrained input and output. The results of computer simulation show the obtained Neural Network model represents the closed loop system well.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.221-230
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• 2012

Cracking of repair material due to restraint of shrinkage could hinder the intended extension of serviceability of repaired concrete structure. The availability of model to predict shrinkage stress under restraint condition will be useful to assess whether repair material with particular deformation properties is resistance to cracking or not. The accuracy in the prediction will depend upon reliability of the model, input parameters, testing methods used to characterize the input parameters, etc. This paper reviews a variety of models to predict shrinkage stress in patch repair system. Effect of creep and composite action to release shrinkage stress in the patch repair system are quantified and discussed. Accuracy of the models is examined by comparing predicted and measured shrinkage stress. Simplified model to estimate shrinkage stress is proposed which requires only shrinkage property of repair material as an input parameter.

• 전기학회논문지P
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• 제59권1호
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• pp.40-46
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• 2010

DC link electrolytic capacitors are widely used in various PWM power converter system, such as adjustable speed driver(ASD) or DC/DC converter. Electrolytic capacitors, which is the most of the time affected by aging effect, plays a very important role for the power electronics system quality and reliability. This objective of this paper is to propose a improvement method to detect the rise of equivalent series resistor(ESR) in order to realize the online failure prediction of electrolytic capacitor for DC link of PWM power converter. The ESR detection scheme is based on the determination of the electrolytic capacitor AC losses calculated from voltage/current measurement using AC coupling. Therefore, the preposed online failure prediction method has the merits of easy ESR computation and circuit simplicity compare with BPF method. Simulation results show the veridity of the proposed on-line ESR estimation method.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.1-5
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• 2016

As a dependency on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) becomes increase in various applications, its reliability has been very important. However, in South Korea, Global Positioning System (GPS) jamming incident happened four times since 2010. GNSS signal is so weak that it is highly susceptible to all types of the jamming. GNSS jamming can cause serious damage in the safety-critical applications based on the GNSS. In this paper, we present the GNSS jamming signal propagation prediction simulator based on ITU-R P.1546 model. This simulator is developed for preventing or reducing the damage from the GNSS jamming attack by predicting the jamming propagation strength based on the geographical information in Korean peninsula.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2005년도 추계 학술발표회 제17권2호
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• pp.615-618
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• 2005

This study concerns the equation of high strength concrete by schmidt hammer test. There are not only few prediction strength equations of concrete by schmidt hammer test, but also many problems to apply them because of time, cost, easiness, structural damage, reliability and so on. For this study, there performed a series of schmidt hammer test with in existing 1,095days' concrete structures and proposed equations as follows ; Linear: ${\Large f}_{ck}=-45.35+2.44R(r^2=72.7\%)$ Quadratic: ${\Large f}_{ck}=-502.08+24.0R-0.25R^2(r^2=82.4\%)$ here, $f_{ck}$ : Estimated compressive strength of concrete by MPa, R : Rebound index of concrete

• 전자공학회논문지A
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• 제31A권12호
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• pp.44-55
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• 1994

This study is to apply the theory of fatigue fracture to solder joints under thermal cyclic loading and predict life of solder joint to failure. A 62Sn-36Pb-2Ag solder was used in this study. Tensile tests were preformed at temperatures of 15.dec. C, 50.dec. C and 85.dec. C in order to find terms of crack length "a". plastic strain range ""${\Delta}{\varepsilon}_p$" and temperature "T". Solder joint under thermal cyclic loading was analyzed by FEM. this FEM analysis together with the crack growth rate will provide the capability of the fatigue life prediction of solder joints and enhance the reliability od solder joint.