• 대한금속재료학회지
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.275-280
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• 2011

This paper focuses on reliability prediction of long-term creep strength for Modified 9Cr-1Mo steel (Gr. 91) which is considered as one of the structural materials of next generation reactor systems. A "Z-parameter" method was introduced to describe the magnitude of standard deviation of creep rupture data to the master curve which can be plotted by log stress vs. The larson-Miller parameter (LMP). Statistical analysis showed that the scattering of the Z-parameter for the Gr. 91 steel well followed normal distribution. Using this normal distribution of the Z-parameter, the various reliability curves for creep strength design, such as stress-time temperature parameter reliability curves (${\sigma}$-TTP-R curves), stress-rupture time-reliability curves (${\sigma}-t_{r}-R$ curves), and allowable stress-temperature- reliability curves ([${\sigma}$]-T-R curves) were reasonably drawn, and their results are discussed.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제54권9호
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• pp.667-680
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• 2021

이 연구의 목적은 서리 발생일과 무상일 기간의 특성을 분석하고 로지스틱 회귀, 랜덤 포레스트, Long-short Term Memory (LSTM) 기법을 활용하여 서리발생 예측모델을 개발하고 평가하는데 있다. 수원, 청주, 광주 지점에서 봄철과 가을철 서리발생 예측모델 개발을 위한 기상변수들을 수집하였으며, 수집기간은 1973년부터 2019년까지이다. 프리시전(precision), 리콜(Recall), f-1 스코어와, AUC 및 Reliability Diagram과 같은 그래피컬 평가기법을 이용해 서리발생 예측모델을 평가하였다. 봄철과 가을철 모두 서리발생일이 줄어드는 경향성(유의수준: 0.01)을 보였다. 0.9 이상의 높은 AUC 값에도 불구하고, 신뢰도는 일정한 값을 보여주지는 않았다. 서리발생일 측뿐만 아니라, 초상일과 종상일을 정확히 예측할 수 있도록 모형 개선이 필요해 보이며, 다른 지역의 더 많은 지점에서 동일한 기법을 적용해 보는 연구가 필요해 보인다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.39-44
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• 2024

In order to prevent accidents via defective ammunition, this paper analyzes recent research on ammunition life prediction methodology. This workanalyzes current shelf-life prediction approaches by comparing the pros and cons of physical modeling, accelerated testing, and statistical analysis-based prediction techniques. Physical modeling-based prediction demonstrates its usefulness in understanding the physical properties and interactions of ammunition. Accelerated testing-based prediction is useful in quickly verifying the reliability and safety of ammunition. Additionally, statistical analysis-based prediction is emphasized for its ability to make decisions based on data. This paper aims to contribute to the early detection of defective ammunition by analyzing ammunition life prediction methodology hereby reducing defective ammunition accidents. In order to prepare not only Korean domestic war situation but also the international affairs from Eastern Europe and Mid East countries, it is very important to enhance the stability of organizations using ammunition and reduce costs of potential accidents.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.413-418
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• 2020

초기 학습 데이터의 과적합으로 인한 전력망 상태예측 모델의 성능 감소를 방지하고 예측모델의 예측 정확도 유지를 통한 계속적인 현장활용을 위해서는 기계학습 모델의 예측 정확도를 지속적으로 관리할 필요가 있다. 이를 위해, 본 논문에서는 다양한 요인에 의해 끊임없이 변화하는 전력망 상태 데이터의 특성을 고려하여 예측모델의 정확성과 신뢰성을 높이고 현장 적용 가능한 수준의 품질을 유지하기 위한 기계학습 기반 전력망 상태예측 모델의 성능 유지관리 자동화 기법을 제안한다. 제안 기법은 워크플로우 관리 기술의 적용을 통해 전력망 상태예측 모델 성능 유지관리를 위한 일련의 태스크들을 워크플로우의 형태로 모델링하고 이를 자동화하여 업무를 효율화 하였다. 또한, 기존 기술에서는 시도되지 않았던 학습데이터의 통계적 특성 변화 정도와 예측의 일반화 수준을 모두 고려한 예측모델의 성능 평가를 통해 성능 결과의 신뢰성을 확보하고 이를 통해 예측 모델의 정확도를 일정 수준으로 유지관리하고 더욱 성능이 우수한 예측모델의 신규 개발이 가능하다. 결과적으로 본 논문에서 제안하는 전력망 상태예측 모델 성능 유지관리 자동화 기법을 통해 예측모델의 성능 저하문제를 해결하여 분산자원 연계 등 외부 환경의 변화에 유연한 예측모델 관리를 통해 정확성과 신뢰성이 보장된 예측 모델의 지속적인 활용이 가능하다.

• 한국공작기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국공작기계학회 1998년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.269-273
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• 1998

The failure of material structures or mechanical system is considered as a direct or indirect result of fatigue. In the design of mechanical structure for estimating of reliability, the prediction of failure life is the most important failure mode to be considered. However, because of a complicated behavior of fatigue in mechanical structure, the analysis of fatigue is in need of much researches on life prediction. This document presents a prediction of fatigue life of the SAPH45 steel, which is extensively for vehicle frame. The method using lethargy coefficient and stress distribution factor at pediction of fatigue life based on the consideration of the failure characteristics from the tensile test should be provided in this study.

• 반도체디스플레이기술학회지
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.25-29
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• 2011

Emerging demands for rechargeable battery for various applications needs more effective battery management system such as the prediction of the usable time about a battery. Many prediction methods have been suggested but none of them come into bounds of reliability. In this paper, we proposed a new prediction algorithm for the remaining capacity of a rechargeable battery by using the transformed curve based on its impedance. Hardware for monitoring a battery was designed and made. Through a series of experiment, we showed the effectiveness of the proposed prediction algorithm of a battery's remaining capacity.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권8호
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• pp.2610-2615
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• 2021

The prediction of irradiation-induced transition temperature shift for RPV steels is an important method for long term operation of nuclear power plant. Based on the irradiation embrittlement data, an irradiation-induced transition temperature shift prediction model is developed with machine learning method XGBoost. Then the residual, standard deviation and predicted value vs. measured value analysis are conducted to analyze the accuracy of this model. At last, Cu content threshold and saturation values analysis, temperature dependence, Ni/Cu dependence and flux effect are given to verify the reliability. Those results show that the prediction model developed with XGBoost has high accuracy for predicting the irradiation embrittlement trend of RPV steel. The prediction results are consistent with the current understanding of RPV embrittlement mechanism.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.48-54
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• 2023

Guided missiles are a one-shot system that finishes their purpose after being used once, and due to the long-term storage until launch, the storage reliability is calculated during development, and performance is maintained through periodic inspections until the life cycle arrives. However, the reliability standards applied in the development of guided missiles were established by analyzing data accumulated by the United States during long-term operation in the country, and since they are different from our environment, the 00 guided missiles that have been deployed in the armed forces for more than 10 years under the premise that there is a difference from actual reliability. As a result of verifying the appropriateness of the current inspection cycle by analyzing the actual reliability of the missile, the necessity of changing the inspection period was derived because it was higher than the predicted reliability. It is proposed to build and utilize a lifespan management system that can systematically collect all data such as shooting and maintenance results by classification, and to establish a reliable reliability standard based on the accumulated data.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.87-106
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• 2016

This paper deals with the reliability analysis of design formulations derived for predicting the punching shear capacity of FRP-reinforced two-way slabs. Firstly, a new design code formulation was derived by means of gene expression programming. This formulation differs from the existing ones as the slab length (L) was introduced in the equation. Next, the proposed formulation was tested for its generalization capability by a parametric study. Then, the stochastic analyses of derived and existing formulations were performed by Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the reliability analyses of these equations were carried out based on the results of stochastic analysis and the ultimate state function of ASCE-7 and ACI-318 (2011). The results indicate that the prediction performance of new formulation is significantly higher as compared to available design equations and its reliability index is within acceptable limits.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.559-567
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• 2014

The model of unit dynamic reliability of repairable k/n (G) system with unit strength degradation under repeated random shocks has been developed according to the stress-strength interference theory. The unit failure number is obtained based on the unit failure probability which can be computed from the unit dynamic reliability. Then, the transfer probability function of the repairable k/n (G) system is given by its Markov property. Once the transfer probability function has been obtained, the probability density matrix and the steady-state probabilities of the system can be retrieved. Finally, the dynamic reliability of the repairable k/n (G) system is obtained by solving the differential equations. It is illustrated that the proposed method is practicable, feasible and gives reasonable prediction which conforms to the engineering practice.