• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability prediction

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Improving Reliability of Bus Arrival Time Predictions Considering delay Time at Signalized Intersection (신호교차로 지체시간을 고려한 버스도착시간 예측 신뢰성 향상 연구)

  • Um, Ki Hun;Lee, Soong-bong;Lee, Jinsoo;Lee, Young-Ihn
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.101-111
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    • 2017
  • This study propose a method to predict the bus arrival time by considering the signal delay time which is an element which can not be considered in the current bus arrival prediction information generation algorithm. In order to consider the signal delay time, travel time is divided into three components: service time, cruising travel time, and signal delay time. Signal delay time was estimated using intersection arrival time and TOD. The results show that most of the errors that occurred in predicting the arrival time are within about 30 seconds. Some of the estimates have large errors due to the nature of this methodology that uses the estimated value of the intersection arrival time rather than the observation value. It is also difficult to predict the arrival time of the express buses using this method. Future studies such as improving this through real-time location information will greatly improve the accuracy of the methodology.

Seismic Performance and Damage Prediction of Existing Fire-protection Pipe Systems Installed in RC Frame Structures (철근콘크리트 구조물 내 부착된 수계 관망시스템의 내진거동 및 손상예측)

  • Jung, Woo-Young;Ju, Bu-Seog
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2011
  • Reliability of piping systems is essential to the safety of any important industrial facilities. During an earthquake, damage to the piping system can occur. It can also cause considerable economic losses and the loss of life following earthquakes. Traditionally, the study of the secondary system was less important than primary structure system, however it has recently been emerging as a key issue for the effective maintenance of the structural system and to help reduce nonstructural earthquake damage. The primary objectives of this study are to evaluate seismic design requirements and the seismic performance of gas and fire protection piping systems installed in reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. In order to characterize the seismic behavior of the existing piping system in an official building, 10 simulated earthquakes and 9 recorded real earthquakes were applied to ground level and the building system by the newmark average acceleration time history method. The results developed by this research can be used for the improvement of new seismic code/regulatory guidelines of secondary systems as well as the improvement of seismic retrofitting or the strengthening of the current piping system.

The Relation between Pullout Load and Compressive Strength of Ultra-High-Strength Concrete (초고강도 콘크리트의 인발하중과 압축강도와의 관계)

  • Ko, Hune-Beom;Kim, Ki-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2018
  • The pullout test, a nondestructive testing(NDT), for pre-installed inserts is perhaps the most widely used technique to estimate the in-situ compressive strength of concrete. It measures the force needed to pullout a standardized metal insert embedded into concrete members. The pullout test was certified by the American Society for Testing and Materials(ASTM) and Canadian Standards Association(CSA) as a reliable method for determining the strength of concrete in concrete structures under construction. To easily estimate the strength of ultra-high-strength concrete, a simplified pullout tester, primarily composed of a standard 12mm bolt with a groove on the shaft as a break-off bolt, an insert nut, and a hydraulic oil pump without a load cell, was proposed. Four wall and two slab specimens were tested for two levels of concrete strength, 80MPa and 100MPa, using a simplified pullout tester with a load cell to verify the advantages of the pullout test and simplified pullout test. The compressive strength of concrete, pullout load, and the rupture of the break-off bolt were measured 11 times, day 1 to 7, 14, 21, 28, and 90. The correlation of the pullout load and the compressive strength of each specimen show a higher degree of reliability. Therefore, a simplified pullout test can be used to evaluate the in-place strength of ultra-high-strength concrete in structures. The prediction equation for the groove diameter of the break-off bolt(y) with the concrete strength(x) was proposed as y=0.0184x+5.4. The results described in this research confirm the simplified pullout's utility and potential for low cost, simplicity, and convenience.

Design of TMO Model based Dynamic Analysis Framework: Components and Metrics (TMO모델 기반의 동적 분석 프레임워크 설계 : 구성요소 및 측정지수)

  • Jeong, Yoon-Seok;Kim, Tae-Wan;Chang, Chun-Hyon
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.32 no.7
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    • pp.377-392
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    • 2005
  • A lot of studies to measure and analyze the system performance have been done in areas such as system modeling, performance measurement, monitoring, and performance prediction since the advent of a computer system. Studies on a framework to unify the performance related areas have rarely been performed although many studies in the various areas have been done, however. In the case of TMO(Time-Triggered Message-Triggered Object), a real-time programming model, it hardly provides tools and frameworks on the performance except a simple run-time monitor. So it is difficult to analyze the performance of the real-time system and the process based on TMO. Thus, in this paper, we propose a framework for the dynamic analysis of the real-time system based on TMO, TDAF(TMO based Dynamic Analysis Framework). TDAF treats all the processes for the performance measurement and analysis, and Provides developers with more reliable information systematically combining a load model, a performance model, and a reporting model. To support this framework, we propose a load model which is extended by applying TMO model to the conventional one, and we provide the load calculation algorithm to compute the load of TMO objects. Additionally, based on TMO model, we propose performance algorithms which implement the conceptual performance metrics, and we present the reporting model and algorithms which can derive the period and deadline for the real-time processes based on the load and performance value. In last, we perform some experiments to validate the reliability of the load calculation algorithm, and provide the experimental result.

Estimation of Heading Date for Rice Cultivars Using ORYZA (v3) (ORYZA (v3) 모델을 사용한 벼 품종별 출수기 예측)

  • Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.246-251
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    • 2017
  • Crop models have been used to predict a heading date for efficient management of fertilizer application. Recently, the ORYZA (v3) model was developed to improve the ORYZA2000 model, which has been used for simulation of rice growth in Korea. Still, little effort has been made to assess applicability of the ORYZA (v3) model to rice farms in Korea. The objective of this study was to evaluate reliability of heading dates predicted using the the ORYZA (v3) model, which would indicate applicability of the model to a decision support system for fertilizer application. Field experiments were conducted from 2015-2016 at the Rural Development Administration (RDA) to obtain rice phenology data. Shindongjin cultivar which is mid-late maturity type was grown under a conventional fertilizer management, e.g., application of fertilizer at the rate of 11 Kg N/10a. Another set of heading dates was obtained from annual reports at experiment farms operated by the National Institute of Crop Science and Agricultural Technology Centers in each province. The input files for the ORYZA (v3) model were prepared using weather and soil data collected from the Korean Meteorology Administration (KMA) and the Korean Soil Information System, respectively. Input parameters for crop management, e.g., transplanting date and planting density, were set to represent management used for the field experiment. The ORYZA (v3) model predicted heading date within 1 day for two seasons. The crop model also had a relatively small error in prediction of heading date for three ecotypes of rice cultivars at experiment farms where weather input data were obtained from a near-by weather station. Those results suggested that the ORYZA (v3) model would be useful for development of a decision support system for fertilizer application when reliable input data for weather variables become available.

Closed Static Chamber Methods for Measurement of Methane Fluxes from a Rice Paddy: A Review (벼논 메탄 플럭스 측정용 폐쇄형 정적 챔버법: 고찰)

  • Ju, Okjung;Kang, Namgoo;Lim, Gapjune
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2020
  • Accurate assessment of greenhouse gas emissions is a cornerstone of every climate change response study, and reliable assessment of greenhouse gas emission data is being used as a practical basis for the entire climate change prediction and modeling studies. Essential, fundamental technologies for estimating greenhouse gas emissions include an on-site monitoring technology, an evaluation methodology of uncertainty in emission factors, and a verification technology for reductions. The closed chamber method is being commonly used to measure gas fluxes between soil-vegetation and atmosphere. This method has the advantages of being simple, easily available and economical. This study presented the technical bases of the closed chamber method for measuring methane fluxes from a rice paddy. The methane fluxes from rice paddies occupy the largest portion of a single source of greenhouse gas in the agricultural field. We reviewed the international and the domestic studies on automated chamber monitoring systems that have been developed from manually operated chambers. Based on this review, we discussed scientific concerns on chamber methods with a particular focus on quality control for improving measurement reliability of field data.

A Study on Predictive Traffic Information Using Cloud Route Search (클라우드 경로탐색을 이용한 미래 교통정보 예측 방법)

  • Jun Hyun, Kim;Kee Wook, Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2015
  • Recent navigation systems provide quick guide services, based on processing real-time traffic information and past traffic information by applying predictable pattern for traffic information. However, the current pattern for traffic information predicts traffic information by processing past information that it presents an inaccuracy problem in particular circumstances(accidents and weather). So, this study presented a more precise predictive traffic information system than historical traffic data first by analyzing route search data which the drivers ask in real time for the quickest way then by grasping traffic congestion levels of the route in which future drivers are supposed to locate. First results of this study, the congested route from Yang Jae to Mapo, the analysis result shows that the accuracy of the weighted value of speed of existing commonly congested road registered an error rate of 3km/h to 18km/h, however, after applying the real predictive traffic information of this study the error rate registered only 1km/h to 5km/h. Second, in terms of quality of route as compared to the existing route which allowed for an earlier arrival to the destination up to a maximum of 9 minutes and an average of up to 3 minutes that the reliability of predictable results has been secured. Third, new method allows for the prediction of congested levels and deduces results of route searches that avoid possibly congested routes and to reflect accurate real-time data in comparison with existing route searches. Therefore, this study enabled not only the predictable gathering of information regarding traffic density through route searches, but it also made real-time quick route searches based on this mechanism that convinced that this new method will contribute to diffusing future traffic flow.

Research on fault analysis and reliability improvement of APU start motor for Korea Utility Helicopter (한국형 기동헬기 APU 시동모터 결함원인 분석 및 신뢰성 개선)

  • Kang, Tae-Woo;Yeom, Hyo-Won;Lee, Hee-Rang;Ahn, Jong-Moo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.703-709
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    • 2017
  • Korea Utility Helicopter(KUH) is a project to replace the aging helicopter presently being operated by the military with a domestic helicopter. The auxiliary power unit is a device that supplies emergency power to the system by an alternator installed when the main generator fails and the start motor converts the electrical energy of the battery into mechanical rotational energy to rotate the auxiliary power unit engine. With continuing power and operation, defects of the starting motor were found and improvements were carried out to solve it. In the failure mode analysis, the causes of possible defects were classified into 5 categories. Analysis of the 5 factors revealed that the main cause of defects is mechanical wear, which was found to be related to spring pressure. 250 tests were conducted through the theoretically determined pressure and regression analysis was performed with 4 sampling.The results showed that pressure was related to wear rate. In conclusion, early wear and breakage due to wear can be controlled through spring force and test showed the prediction of wear and the validity of the result were confirmed.

Characteristics of Material Function Related to Permeability and Compressibility for Soft Clay Ground (투수 및 압축에 대한 연약 점토지반의 물질함수 특성)

  • Lee, Song;Jeon, Je-Sung;Yi, Chang-Tok
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.183-194
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    • 2004
  • It's essential process to study non-linear material function related to characteristics of compressibility and permeability when we predict the consolidation behavior of soft clay ground. In this study, laboratory tests were conducted to find out the material function using marine clay. Standard oedometer test and Rowe cell test were performed with conditions, which were classified into vertical drainage only, radial drainage only and vertical-radial drainage case. Modified oedometer test equipment was developed to find out the material function and special extrusion device was originated to minimize the sample disturbance effect. Reliability of the results in modified oedometer test could be confirmed by comparing with the Rowe cell's one. Effective stress - void ratio - permeability relations were analyzed using all testing results. As a result, void ratio with effective stress level could be expressed by the power function and permeability with void ratio could be expressed by exponential function. In soft clay with high initial water content and low shear strength, non-linear characteristics related to compressibility and permeability varied with wide range by the effective stress levels. It's important to note that non-linearity of the material function should be considered at prediction of the consolidation behavior.

An Interpretable Log Anomaly System Using Bayesian Probability and Closed Sequence Pattern Mining (베이지안 확률 및 폐쇄 순차패턴 마이닝 방식을 이용한 설명가능한 로그 이상탐지 시스템)

  • Yun, Jiyoung;Shin, Gun-Yoon;Kim, Dong-Wook;Kim, Sang-Soo;Han, Myung-Mook
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2021
  • With the development of the Internet and personal computers, various and complex attacks begin to emerge. As the attacks become more complex, signature-based detection become difficult. It leads to the research on behavior-based log anomaly detection. Recent work utilizes deep learning to learn the order and it shows good performance. Despite its good performance, it does not provide any explanation for prediction. The lack of explanation can occur difficulty of finding contamination of data or the vulnerability of the model itself. As a result, the users lose their reliability of the model. To address this problem, this work proposes an explainable log anomaly detection system. In this study, log parsing is the first to proceed. Afterward, sequential rules are extracted by Bayesian posterior probability. As a result, the "If condition then results, post-probability" type rule set is extracted. If the sample is matched to the ruleset, it is normal, otherwise, it is an anomaly. We utilize HDFS datasets for the experiment, resulting in F1score 92.7% in test dataset.