• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability prediction

Search Result 1,207, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

Temperature Prediction of Cylinder Components in Medium-Speed Diesel Engine Using Conjugate Heat Transfer Analysis (복합 열전달 해석을 이용한 중속 디젤엔진 실린더 부품 온도 분포 예측)

  • Choi, Seong Wook;Yoon, Wook Hyoen;Park, Jong Il;Kang, Jeong Min;Park, Hyun Joong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
    • /
    • v.37 no.8
    • /
    • pp.781-788
    • /
    • 2013
  • Predicting the engine component temperature is a basic step to conduct structural safety evaluation in medium-speed diesel engine design. Recent trends such as increasing power density and performance necessitate more effective thermal management of the engine for achieving the desired durability and reliability. In addition, the local temperatures of several engine components must be maintained in the proper range to avoid problems such as low- or high-temperature corrosion. Therefore, it is very important to predict the temperature distribution of each engine part accurately in the design stage. In this study, the temperature of an engine component is calculated by using steady-state conjugate heat transfer analysis. A proper approach to determine the thermal load distribution on the thermal boundary area is suggested by using 1D engine system analysis, 3D transient CFD results, and previous experimental data from another developed engine model. A Hyundai HiMSEN engine having 250-mm bore size was chosen to validate the analysis procedure. The predicted results showed a reasonable agreement with experimental results.

Mobility Support Scheme Based on Machine Learning in Industrial Wireless Sensor Network (산업용 무선 센서 네트워크에서의 기계학습 기반 이동성 지원 방안)

  • Kim, Sangdae;Kim, Cheonyong;Cho, Hyunchong;Jung, Kwansoo;Oh, Seungmin
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
    • /
    • v.9 no.11
    • /
    • pp.256-264
    • /
    • 2020
  • Industrial Wireless Sensor Networks (IWSNs) is exploited to achieve various objectives such as improving productivity and reducing cost in the diversity of industrial application, and it has requirements such as low-delay and high reliability packet transmission. To accomplish the requirement, the network manager performs graph construction and resource allocation about network topology, and determines the transmission cycle and path of each node in advance. However, this network management scheme cannot treat mobile devices that cause continuous topology changes because graph reconstruction and resource reallocation should be performed as network topology changes. That is, despite the growing need of mobile devices in many industries, existing scheme cannot adequately respond to path failure caused by movement of mobile device and packet loss in the process of path recovery. To solve this problem, a network management scheme is required to prevent packet loss caused by mobile devices. Thus, we analyse the location and movement cycle of mobile devices over time using machine learning for predicting the mobility pattern. In the proposed scheme, the network manager could prevent the problems caused by mobile devices through performing graph construction and resource allocation for the predicted network topology based on the movement pattern. Performance evaluation results show a prediction rate of about 86% compared with actual movement pattern, and a higher packet delivery ratio and a lower resource share compared to existing scheme.

The Box-office Success Factors of Films Utilizing Big Data-Focus on Laugh and Tear of Film Factors (빅데이터를 활용한 영화 흥행 분석 -천만 영화의 웃음과 눈물 요소를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Young-mee;Park, Jin-tae;Moon, Il-young;Kim, Kwang-sun;Kwon, Oh-young
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
    • /
    • v.20 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1087-1095
    • /
    • 2016
  • The study aims to analyze factors of box office utilizing big data. The film industry has been increasing in the scale, but the discussion on analysis and prediction of box-office hit has not secured reliability because of failing in including all relevant data. 13 films have sold 10 million tickets until the present in Korea. The study demonstrated laughs and tears as an main interior factors of box-office hit films which showed more than 10 milling tickets power. First, the study collected terms relevant to laugh and tear. Next, it schematizes how frequently laugh and tear factors could be found along the 5-film-stage (exposition - Rising action - crisis - climax - ending) and revealed box-office hit films by genre. The results of the analysis would contribute to the construction of comprehensive database for the box office predictions on future scenarios.

Uncertainty of Agrometeorological Advisories Caused by the Spatiotemporally Averaged Climate References (시공간평균 기준기후에 기인한 농업기상특보의 불확실성)

  • Kim, Dae-jun;Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Soo-Ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.120-129
    • /
    • 2017
  • Agrometeorological advisories for farms and orchards are issued when daily weather exceeds a predefined range of the local reference climate, which is a long-term average of daily weather for the location. The reference climate at local scales is prepared by various simplification methods, resulting in uncertainty in the agrometeorological advisories. We restored daily weather data for the 1981-2010 period and analyzed the differences in prediction results of weather risk by comparing with the temporal and spatial simplified normal climate values. For this purpose, we selected the agricultural drought index (ADI) among various disaster related indices because ADI requires many kinds of weather data to calculate it. Ten rural counties within the Seomjin River Basin were selected for this study. The normal value of 'temporal simplification' was calculated by using the daily average value for 30 years (1981-2010). The normal value of 'spatial simplification' is the zonal average of the temporally simplified normal values falling within a standard watershed. For residual moisture index, temporal simplification normal values were overestimated, whereas spatial simplification normal values were underestimated in comparison with non-simplified normal values. The ADI's calculated from January to July 2017 showed a significant deviation in terms of the extent of drought depending on the normal values used. Through this study, we confirmed that the result of weather risk calculation using normal climatic values from 'simplified' methods can affect reliability of the agrometeorological advisories.

A Prediction of the Penetration Depth on CO2 Arc Welding of Steel Sheet Lap Joint with Fillet for Car Body using Multiple Regression Analysis Technique (자동차용 박강판 겹치기 이음부의 CO2 아크 용접에서 다중회귀분석기법을 이용한 용입깊이 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Min;Sim, Hyun-Woo;Kwon, Jae-Hyung;Yoon, Buk-Dong;Jeong, Min-Ki;Park, Moon-Soo;Lee, Bo-Young
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
    • /
    • v.30 no.2
    • /
    • pp.59-64
    • /
    • 2012
  • Welding is an essential process in the automotive industry. Most welding processes that are used for auto body are spot welding and $CO_2$ welding are used in a small part. In production field, $CO_2$ welding process is decreased and spot welding process is increased due to welding quality is poor and defects are occurred in $CO_2$ welding process frequently. But $CO_2$ welding process should be used at robot interference parts and closed parts where spot welding couldn't. Because of the 0.65mm ~ 2.0mm thickness steel sheet were used in the automotive industry, poor quality of welding area such as burn through and under fill were happened frequently in $CO_2$ process. In this paper, we will study about the penetration depth which gives a huge impact on burn through changing a degree of base metal, welding position and torch angle. Voltage, current and welding speed were fixed but degree of base metal, welding position and torch angle were changed. And Cold- Rolled(CR) steel sheet was used. Penetration depth was analysed by multiple regression analysis to derive approximate calculations. And reliability of approximate calculations were confirmed through additional experiments. As the results of this research, we confirmed the effect of torch and plate angle to bead shape. And we present a possibility that can simulate more accurate to weld geometry, as deduced the verification equations that has tolerance of less than 21.69%.

A Theoretical Review on the Natural Family Planning Method (자연적 가족계획 방법에 대한 이론적 고찰)

  • Park, Shin-Ae
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
    • /
    • v.7 no.2
    • /
    • pp.410-419
    • /
    • 1996
  • This study was reviewed from 1000 articles related to family planning from 1970 to 1990 and 20 articles associated with natural family planning from 1980 until the present. The purpose of natural family planning(NFP) is to identify the time ovulation of women themselves, to have intercourse with periodic abstinence, and to deliver a healthy child. The ultimate goal of NFP is to promote the family's health. The NFP method is described as periodic abstinence of intercourse to avoid pregnancy by identifying the ovulation time in the menstration cycle. Clinical symptoms and signs of reflection underlying changes in Estrogen and Progesterone are the change of basal body temperature, the change of cervical mucus and cervix, abdominal pain and breast tenderness. The types of NFP are the calender rthythm method, basal body temperature methods, cervical mucus method, symptothermal method, cyclo-thermal method and home based ovulation test kits. Recently the cyclo-thermal method involved. It is calendar rhythm method applied to B.B.T. For the cervical mucus method, when the estrogen level in the blood concentration is increased, the mucus begins to excrete, the amount of moist mucus increases while the mucus is clear, slippery, and smooth. For 3 days, this timing can be considered contraception. Fertility is at a maximum on the day mucus appears, abstinence for 3 days is a type of contraception. Sexual intercourse on a maximum day of mucus maximizes pregnancy potential. But, the contraception depends on the practice of a perfect rule. For basal body temperature methods, at ovulation time, the temperature increases $0.2^{\circ}C-0.5^{\circ}C$. Through the review of literature a high temperature above $0.2^{\circ}C$ for 3 days indicates that the previous 6 day period was ovulation and fertilization. The Symptothermal method is used to determine the prediction of ovulation through the observation of mucus excretion, high temperature, the change of cervical mucus, low abdominal pain, vaginal discharge, and breast change. Home based ovulation test kits are cervico-vaginal fluid aspiration, test a digital electric thermometer, body fluid(blood, saliva, urine) test kits, They are on the market. However, research on the contraception method is still in progress. For pregnancy it is still too early to use home based ovulation test kits because of deficit of reliability and simplicity more research on the technology is needed. It is suggested that NFP methods be included in nursing curriculum in order to educate NFP users how to effectively use NFP methods. Furthermore, this study has implications for the dissemination of NFP methods in terms of Korean policies of family planning and the support of community welfare agences.

  • PDF

A Study on Prediction of Nugget Diameter by Resistance Spot Welding Finite Element Analysis of High Tensile Steel (SGAFC 780) (고장력 강판(SGAFC780)의 저항 점 용접의 유한요소해석을 통한 너깃 직경 예측)

  • Lee, Cheal-Ho;Kim, Won Seop;Lee, Jong-Hun;Park, Sang-Heup
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.20 no.11
    • /
    • pp.144-150
    • /
    • 2019
  • In this study, resistance spot welding was performed using a high tensile steel plate SGAFC 780. The shear tensile strength, fracture profile, nugget diameter, and simulation were compared according to the conditions. After the nugget diameter calibration, the minimum diameter of welding was more than 4.3mm when the welding current was 8kVA or more. At 9kVA and above 10kVA, the minimum nugget diameter of 4.3mm was satisfied. On the other hand, due to the high current and time, the fly phenomenon occurred and the deep indentation remained. An evaluation of the weldability confirmed that there was an interval that was evaluated as weld failure due to the creep phenomenon, which satisfied the tensile shear strength and minimum nugget diameter. On the other hand, areas that have sufficient load bearing capacity even when drift has occurred were also identified. The simulation results show that the error rate was less than 4.2% when comparing the nugget diameter in the simulation and the experimental results in the appropriate weld zone, and confirmed the reliability of the simulation.

Grounding Line of Campbell Glacier in Ross Sea Derived from High-Resolution Digital Elevation Model (고해상도 DEM을 활용한 로스해 Campbell 빙하의 지반접지선 추정)

  • Kim, Seung Hee;Kim, Duk-jin;Kim, Hyun-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.545-552
    • /
    • 2018
  • Grounding line is used as evidence of the mass balance showing the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers and ice shelves. In this research, we utilized a high resolution digital elevation model of glacier surface derived by recently launched satellites to estimate the position of grounding line of Campbell Glacier in East Antarctica. TanDEM-X and TerraSAR-X data in single-pass interferometry mode were acquired on June 21, 2013 and September 10, 2016 and CryoSat-2 radar altimeter data were acquired within 15 days from the acquisition date of TanDEM-X. The datasets were combined to generate a high resolution digital elevation model which was used to estimate the grounding line position. During the 3 years of observation, there weren't any significant changes in grounding line position. Since the average density of ice used in estimating grounding line is not accurately known, the variations of the grounding line was analyzed with respect to the density of ice. There was a spatial difference from the grounding line estimated by DDInSAR whereas the estimated grounding line using the characteristics of the surface of the optical satellite images agreed well when the ice column density was about $880kg/m^3$. Although the reliability of the results depends on the vertical accuracy of the bathymetry in this study, the hydrostatic ice thickness has greater influence on the grounding line estimation.

A Study of Structural Stress Technique for Fracture Prediction of an Auto-Mobile Clutch Snap-Ring (클러치 스냅링부 파괴 예측을 위한 구조응력기법 연구)

  • Kim, Ju Hee;Myeong, Man Sik;Oh, Chang Sik;Kim, Yun Jae
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.40 no.2
    • /
    • pp.175-183
    • /
    • 2016
  • The endurance reliability assessment of a highly complex mechanism is generally predicted by the fatigue life based on simple stress analysis. This study discusses various fatigue life assessment techniques for an automobile clutch snap ring. Finite element analyses were conducted to determine the structural stress on the snap ring. Structural stress that is insensitive in regards to the mesh size and type definition is presented in this study. The structural stress definition is consistent with elementary structural mechanics theory and provides an effective measure of a stress state that pertains to fatigue behavior of welded joints in the form of both membrane and bending components. Numerical procedures for both solid models and shell or plate element models are presented to demonstrate the mesh-size insensitivity when extracting the structural stress parameters. Conventional finite element models can be used with the structural stress calculations as a post-processing procedure. The two major implications from this research were: (a) structural stresses pertaining to fatigue behavior can be consistently calculated in a mesh-insensitive manner regardless of the types of finite element models; and (b) by comparing with the clutch snap-ring fatigue test data, we should predict the fatigue fractures of an automobile clutch snap ring using this method.

Development and Application of the Mode Choice Models According to Zone Sizes (분석대상 규모에 따른 수단분담모형의 추정과 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ju-Yeong;Lee, Seung-Jae;Kim, Do-Gyeong;Jeon, Jang-U
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.29 no.6
    • /
    • pp.97-106
    • /
    • 2011
  • Mode choice model is an essential element for estimating- the demand of new means of transportation in the planning stage as well as in the establishment phase. In general, current demand analysis model developed for the mode choice analysis applies common parameters of utility function in each region which causes inaccuracy in forecasting mode choice behavior. Several critical problems from using common parameters are: a common parameter set can not reflect different distribution of coefficient for travel time and travel cost by different population. Consequently, the resulting model fails to accurately explain policy variables such as travel time and travel cost. In particular, the nonlinear logit model applied to aggregation data is vulnerable to the aggregation error. The purpose of this paper is to consider the regional characteristics by adopting the parameters fitted to each area, so as to reduce prediction errors and enhance accuracy of the resulting mode choice model. In order to estimate parameter of each area, this study used Household Travel Survey Data of Metropolitan Transportation Authority. For the verification of the model, the value of time by marginal rate of substitution is evaluated and statistical test for resulting coefficients is also carried out. In order to crosscheck the applicability and reliability of the model, changes in mode choice are analyzed when Seoul subway line 9 is newly opened and the results are compared with those from the existing model developed without considering the regional characteristics.