• Title/Summary/Keyword: relative risk factor

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Genetic radiation risks: a neglected topic in the low dose debate

  • Schmitz-Feuerhake, Inge;Busby, Christopher;Pflugbeil, Sebastian
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.31
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    • pp.1.1-1.13
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    • 2016
  • Objectives To investigate the accuracy and scientific validity of the current very low risk factor for hereditary diseases in humans following exposures to ionizing radiation adopted by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation and the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The value is based on experiments on mice due to reportedly absent effects in the Japanese atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors. Methods To review the published evidence for heritable effects after ionising radiation exposures particularly, but not restricted to, populations exposed to contamination from the Chernobyl accident and from atmospheric nuclear test fallout. To make a compilation of findings about early deaths, congenital malformations, Down's syndrome, cancer and other genetic effects observed in humans after the exposure of the parents. To also examine more closely the evidence from the Japanese A-bomb epidemiology and discuss its scientific validity. Results Nearly all types of hereditary defects were found at doses as low as one to 10 mSv. We discuss the clash between the current risk model and these observations on the basis of biological mechanism and assumptions about linear relationships between dose and effect in neonatal and foetal epidemiology. The evidence supports a dose response relationship which is non-linear and is either biphasic or supralinear (hogs-back) and largely either saturates or falls above 10 mSv. Conclusions We conclude that the current risk model for heritable effects of radiation is unsafe. The dose response relationship is non-linear with the greatest effects at the lowest doses. Using Chernobyl data we derive an excess relative risk for all malformations of 1.0 per 10 mSv cumulative dose. The safety of the Japanese A-bomb epidemiology is argued to be both scientifically and philosophically questionable owing to errors in the choice of control groups, omission of internal exposure effects and assumptions about linear dose response.

Prognostic factors for survival of dogs infected with canine parvovirus

  • Pak, Son-il;Hwang, Cheol-young;Han, Hong-ryul
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.838-845
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    • 1999
  • To determine the prognostic factors for survival of dogs infected with canine parvovirus, clinical and laboratory data of 35 dogs with clinical signs compatible with canine parvoviral enteritis admitted to the Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital, Seoul National University during the period 1997-1998 were collected. Dogs were grouped by some major covariates, which can be considered as guides to the relative prognosis of dogs in the different subgroups. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Weibull proportional hazard model were used to estimate overall survival, evaluate the comparability between groups, and identify potential prognostic factors. The overall survival rate for all dogs was 45.7% over the study period, and the Kaplan-Meier estimate of one week survival was 0.4989. Gender was the most favorable prognosis ; male dog (median, 6 days) had significantly higher risk of dying than female dog (median, 17 days ; p = 0.0023). In addition to gender, age was significantly associated with survival, with juvenile dogs less than 6-month-old having higher risk (p = 0.0359). Dogs that vaccinated with complete protocol (p = 0.0374) and those of having higher value of mean corpuscular volume (p = 0.0346) were found to be of prognostic importance. The 7 dogs in which white blood cell count of less than 2000 had shorter median survival time (3 days) than the remaining 28 dogs (8 days), but no statistical significance was found between leukopenic and survival. The distribution of packed cell volume and hemoglobin measurement was such that the overall risk of dying in the two groups was comparable. Further studies are needed to more accurately assess these results.

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Extracting Risk Factors and Analyzing AHP Importance for Planning Phase of Real Estate Development Projects in Myanmar (미얀마 부동산 개발형사업 기획단계의 리스크 요인 추출 및 AHP 중요도 분석)

  • Kim, Sooyong;Chung, Jaihoon;Yang, Jinkook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2021
  • Myanmar is an undeveloped country with high development value among Asian countries. Therefore, various countries including the U.S. are considering entering the market. In this respect, demand for real estate development project is forecast to grow on increased inflow of foreigners and Myanmar's economic growth. However, Myanmar is a high-risk country in terms of overseas companies, including national risk. In this study, we conducted an in-depth interview with experts (law, finance, technology, and local experts) after analyzing data on Myanmar to extract risk-causing factors. Through this, 106 risk factors were extracted, and the final risk classification system was established by conducting three-time groupings using the affinity diagramming. And the relative importance of each factor was presented using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique. As a result, the country-related risk, the fund-related risk, and the pre-sale-related risk were highly important. The research results are expected to provide risk management standards to companies entering the Myanmar real estate development type project.

Fasting Serum Glucose and Subsequent Liver Cancer Risk in a Korean Prospective Cohort (공복 혈당과 간암 발생 위험에 관한 코호트 연구)

  • Gwack, Jin;Hwang, Seung-Sik;Ko, Kwang-Pil;Jun, Jae-Kwan;Park, Sue-Kyung;Chang, Soung-Hoon;Shin, Hai-Rim;Yoo, Keun-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.23-28
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    • 2007
  • Objectives : Chronic infections with hepatitis B or C and alcoholic cirrhosis are three well-known major risk factors for liver cancer. Diabetes has also been suggested as a potential risk factor. However, the findings of previous studies have been controversial in terms of the causal association. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the association between serum glucose levels and liver cancer development in a Korean cohort. Methods : Thirty-six liver cancer cases were identified in the Korean Multi-Center Cancer Cohort (KMCC). Baseline information on lifestyle characteristics was obtained via questionnaire. Serum glucose levels were measured at the study's enrollment. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using a Cox proportional hazard regression model. The adjusting variables included age, gender, smoking history, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seropositivity. Results : The RRs of serum glucose for liver caner were 1.20 (95% CI = 0.48-2.99) for the category of 100 to 125 mg/dL of serum glucose and 2.77 (95% CI = 1.24-6.18) for the >126 mg/dL serum glucose category (both compared to the <100 mg/dL category). In a subgroup analysis, the RR of serum glucose among those who were both HBsAg seronegative and non-drinkers was 4.46 (95% CI = 1.09-18.28) for those with glucose levels >100 mg/dL. Conclusions : The results of this study suggest that a high level of serum glucose can increase liver cancer risk independently of hepatitis infection and drinking history in Koreans. This study implies that glucose intolerance may be an independent risk factor for liver cancer.

Relation between Risk and Return in the Korean Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market (주가와 환율의 위험-수익 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Gon;Lee, Phil-Sang
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.199-226
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    • 2009
  • We examine the intertemporal relation between risk and return in the Korean stock market and foreign exchange market based on the two factor ICAPM framework. The standard GARCH model and the GJR(1993) model are employed to estimate conditional variances of the stock returns and foreign exchange rates. The covariance between the rates of stock returns and changes in the exchange rates are estimated by the constant conditional correlation model of Bollerslev(1990) and the dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle(2002). The multivariate GARCH in mean model and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method, consequently, are applied to investigate riskreturn relation jointly. We find that the estimated coefficient of relative risk aversion is negative and statistically significant in the post-financial crisis sample period in the Korean stock market. We also show that the expected stock returns are negatively related to the dynamic covariance with foreign exchange rates. Both estimated parameters of conditional variance and covariance in the foreign exchange market, however, are not statistically significant. The GJR model is better than the standard GARCH model to estimate the conditional variances. In addition, the dynamic conditional correlation model has higher explanatory power than the constant correlation model. The empirical results of this study suggest following two points to investors and risk managers in hedging and diversifying strategies for their portfolios in the Korean stock market: first, the variability of foreign exchange rates should be considered, and second, time-varying correlation between stock returns and changes in foreign exchange rates supposed to be considered.

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An Analysis of Time Varying Beta Risk in Domestic Renewable Energy Company (국내 신재생에너지 기업의 리스크 분석)

  • Lee, UiJae;Heo, Eunnyeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.99-125
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    • 2013
  • Renewable energy industry not only has a promising future but also has more risk than conventional energy industry because of its characteristics. Therefore, in this study, an analysis of domestic renewable energy company risk has been performed. The risk of domestic wind and photovoltaic energy companies has been analyzed by using time varying beta model. The model has been constructed based on risk factors like firm size, firm diversification index, domestic installation, and so on. The principal result of analysis can be summarized as follows. First, risk factors affect domestic renewable energy companies have been discovered. Variables like firm size, growth rate of debt ratio, firm diversification index are statistically significant. I found that large firms are less riskier than small firms. It is also confirmed that companies with high diversification index and high debt ratio have high risk. Second, I got the result that policy factors like domestic renewable energy installation and government R&D expenditure could decrease risk of domestic renewable energy company. Third, relative sensitivity of each risk factor have been discovered. The effect of each variable gets bigger in this order: growth rate of domestic installation, firm size or diversification index, growth rate of debt ratio, growth rate of government R&D expenditure.

Conclusions and Suggestions on Low-Dose and Low-Dose Rate Radiation Risk Estimation Methodology

  • Sakai, Kazuo;Yamada, Yutaka;Yoshida, Kazuo;Yoshinaga, Shinji;Sato, Kaoru;Ogata, Hiromitsu;Iwasaki, Toshiyasu;Kudo, Shin'ichi;Asada, Yasuki;Kawaguchi, Isao;Haeno, Hiroshi;Sasaki, Michiya
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.14-23
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    • 2021
  • Background: For radiological protection and control, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) provides the nominal risk coefficients related to radiation exposure, which can be extrapolated using the excess relative risk and excess absolute risk obtained from the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki with the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). Materials and Methods: Since it is impossible to directly estimate the radiation risk at doses less than approximately 100 mSv only from epidemiological knowledge and data, support from radiation biology is absolutely imperative, and thus, several national and international bodies have advocated the importance of bridging knowledge between biology and epidemiology. Because of the accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)'s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, the exposure of the public to radiation has become a major concern and it was considered that the estimation of radiation risk should be more realistic to cope with the prevailing radiation exposure situation. Results and Discussion: To discuss the issues from wide aspects related to radiological protection, and to realize bridging knowledge between biology and epidemiology, we have established a research group to develop low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation risk estimation methodology, with the permission of the Japan Health Physics Society. Conclusion: The aim of the research group was to clarify the current situation and issues related to the risk estimation of low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure from the viewpoints of different research fields, such as epidemiology, biology, modeling, and dosimetry, to identify a future strategy and roadmap to elucidate a more realistic estimation of risk against low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure.

Dynamic Path Planning for Mobile Robots Using Fuzzy Potential Field Method (퍼지 포텐셜 필드를 이용한 이동로봇의 동적 경로 계획)

  • Woo, Kyoung-Sik;Park, Jong-Hun;Huh, Uk-Youl
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.61 no.2
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    • pp.291-297
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, potential field algorithm was used for path planning in dynamic environment. This algorithm is used to plan a robot path because of its elegant mathematical analysis and simplicity. However, there are some problems. The problems are problem of collision risk, problem of avoidance path, problem of time consumption. In order to solve these problems, we fused potential field with fuzzy system. The input of the fuzzy system is set using relative velocity and location of robot and obstacle. The output of the fuzzy system is set using the weighting factor of repulsive potential function. The potential field algorithm is improved by using fuzzy potential field algorithm and, path planning in various environment has been done.

A Study fo rthe determination of optimum cutangle for the heavily jointed rock slope (절리가 심하게 발달된 암반사면의 최적 절취각 고찰)

  • 홍예성;조태진;한공창
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.166-174
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    • 1996
  • Stability of rock slope is greatly affected by the geometry and strength of discontinuities developed in the rock mass. In this study an analytical method which is capable of analyzing the effect of relative orientation between the discontinuities and the slope face on the safety of slope by assessing their vector components was used to evaluate the stability and the maximum cut-angle for the proposed slope design. The results of computerized vector analysis revealed that slope area under investigation might be divided into 3 sections of different face directions. The safety factors for benches in each 3 sections were calculated using the limit-equilibrium theory. Then, by utilizing the concept of probabilistic risk analysis, the susceptibility of entire slope failure was estimated. Based on the distribution of safety factor in each bench, the maximum cut angle of each section could be selected differently ot achieve the permanent stability of the entire slope.

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An Association between Factor of Metabolic Syndrome and Serum Levels of Gamma-glutamyltranspeptidse at Age 40 Years

  • Choi, Seok-Cheol;Seok, Seong-Ja
    • Biomedical Science Letters
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2011
  • We have evaluated an usefulness and association between serum levels of gamma-glutamyltranspeptiase (GGT) and metabolic syndrome (MS) in 40-year-old men and women. The prevalence of MS in men (11.8%) was higher than that of women (4.0%). Serum levels of GGT were higher in men and women with MS than in them without MS. In the prevalence of higher serum GGT, men group with MS (35.8%) was greater than women group with MS (22.7%). In the relative risk of MS to an increased level of GGT, women group was higher than men group (about 3 times) (female, OR=7.48 vs male, OR=2.46). The present study reveals that routine check of serum GGT in health examination can be useful for the prevention and management of MS including cardiovascular and/or liver diseases.