• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.361-376
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• 2020

This study evaluates multiple Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in simulating temperature and precipitation over the Far East Asia (FEA) and estimates the portions of the total uncertainty originating in the RCMs and the driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) using nine present-day (1981~2000) climate data obtained from combinations of three GCMs and three RCMs in the CORDEX-EA phase2. Downscaling using the RCMs generally improves the present temperature and precipitation simulated in the GCMs. The mean temperature climate in the RCM simulations is similar to that in the GCMs; however, RCMs yield notably better spatial variability than the GCMs. In particular, the RCMs generally yield positive added values to the variability of the summer temperature and the winter precipitation. Evaluating the uncertainties by the GCMs (VARGCM) and the RCMs (VARRCM) on the basis of two-way ANOVA shows that VARRCM is greater than VARGCM in contrast to previous studies which showed VARGCM is larger. In particular, in the winter temperature, the ocean has a very large VARRCM of up to 30%. Precipitation shows that VARRCM is greater than VARGCM in all seasons, but the difference is insignificant. In the following study, we will analyze how the uncertainty of the climate model in the present-day period affects future climate change prospects.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.61 no.2
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• pp.25-39
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• 2019

The water pollution Accident in the South Han River is increasing due to increase of pollutants inflow from small streams from rural areas and reduced flow rate. This study predicted the change of water quality in the main stream of the South Han River due to climate change through the linkage of watershed and water quality models. Also, This study analyzed the effect of water quality improvement on Seomgang and the South Han River by securing the flow during the dry season. According to the scenarios for securing the river flow during drought season, the river flow in the Seomgang is increased up to 2.19 times, and the water quality during the drought season was improved up to $BOD_5$ 20.5%, T-N 40.8%, T-P 53.4%. Also, the water quality of the main stream of the South Han River improved to 5.22% of $BOD_5$, 5.42% of T-N and 7.69% of T-P as the river flow was secured from the Seomgang. The result of this study confirms that securing the baseflow in the Seomgang according to the scenarios for securing the river flow during the dry season has a positive effect on the improvement of the water quality of the rivers in the main river of the Seomgang and South Han River. The results of this study will contribute to the establishment of reasonable management to improve the water quality of the main stream of the Seomgang and South Han River.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.1215-1224
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• 2016

Climate information of the high resolution grid units is an important factor to explain the phenomenon in a variety of research field. Statistical linear interpolation models are computationally inexpensive and applicable to any climate data compared to the dynamic simulation method at regional scales. In this paper, we considered four different linear-based statistical interpolation models: general linear model, generalized additive model, spatial linear regression model, and Bayesian spatial linear regression model. The climate variable of interest was the daily mean temperature, where the spatial variability was explained using geographic terrain information: latitude, longitude, elevation. The data were collected by weather stations in January from 2003 and 2012. In the sense of RMSE and correlation coefficient, Bayesian spatial linear regression model showed better performance in reflecting the spatial pattern compared to the other models.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.2 s.175
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• pp.147-158
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• 2007

This study attempted to determine a suitable hydrologic model for assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, and to assess the accuracy of streamflow scenarios simulated by the selected hydrologic model using the meteorological scenarios of the Seoul National University Regional Climate Model(SNURCM). Comparison of four water balance models and two daily conceptual rainfall-runoff models for the simulation capability of the Daecheong Dam inflow indicated that the abcd model performs the best among the tested water balance models and performs as well as SSARR that is popular as a daily rainfall-runoff model in Korea. Parameters of the abcd model were then estimated for 12 ungauged subbasins of the Geum River by the regionalization method. The model parameters were first calibrated at nine multi-purpose dams and were then regionalized using catchment characteristics for another four multi-purpose dams, which were assumed to be ungauged sites. The model efficiency(ME) coefficients of the simulated inflows for these four dams were at least 87%. The MEs of the hindcasted meteorological rainfall scenarios of the 12 subbasins of the Geum River were more than 60%. Moreover, the ME of the Daecheong Dam inflow simulated by the abcd model using the SNURCM rainfall scenarios was more than 80%. Therefore, this research concluded that the abcd model coupled with the SNU-RCM meteorological scenarios can be used for impact assessment studies of climate change on water resources.

• Atmosphere
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.55-68
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• 2007

Future climate changes over East Asia are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using ECHO-G/S (ECHAM4/HOPE-G). Climate simulation in the 21st century is conducted with three standard SRES scenarios (A1B, B1, and A2) and the model performance is assessed by the 20th Century (20C3M) experiment. From the present climate simulation (20C3M), the model reproduced reliable climate state in the most fields, however, cold bias in temperature and dry bias of summer in precipitation occurred. The intercomparison among models using Taylor diagram indicates that ECHO-G/S exhibits smaller mean bias and higher pattern correlation than other nine AOGCMs. Based on SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming 21st century. Changes of geographical patterns from the present to the future are considerably similar through all the scenarios except for the magnitude difference. The temperature in winter and precipitation in summer show remarkable increase. In spite of the large uncertainty in simulating precipitation by regional scale, we found that the summer (winter) precipitation at eastern coast (north of $40^{\circ}N$) of East Asia has significantly increased. In the 21st century, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. Hence, more enhanced (weakened) land-sea thermal contrast over East Asia in summer (winter) will cause strong (weak) monsoon. In summer, the low pressure located in East Asia becomes deeper and the moisture from the south or southeast is transported more into the land. These result in increasing precipitation amount over East Asia, especially at the coastal region. In winter, the increase (decrease) of precipitation is accompanied by strengthening (weakening) of baroclinicity over the land (sea) of East Asia.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.192-202
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• 2024

Ocean reanalysis data are extensively used in ocean circulation and climate research by integrating observational data with numerical models. This approach overcomes the spatial and temporal limitations of observational data and provides high-resolution gridded information that considers the physical interactions between ocean variables. In this study, I extended the previously produced 12-year (2011-2022) Northwest Pacific regional ocean reanalysis data to create a long-term reanalysis dataset (K-ORA22E) with a horizontal resolution of 1/24° spanning 30 years (1993-2022). These data were analyzed to diagnose long-term ocean climate change in the Korean marginal seas. Analysis of the K-ORA22E data revealed that the axis of the Kuroshio extension has shifted northward by approximately 6 km per year over the past 30 years, with a significant increase in sea surface temperature north of the Kuroshio axis. Among the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula, the East Sea exhibited the most significant temperature increase. In the East Sea, the temperature increase was more pronounced in the middle layer than in the surface layer, with the East Korea Warm Current showing a rate two to three times higher than the global average. In the central Yellow Sea, where the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water appears, temperatures increased over the long-term, but decreased along the west and south coasts of the Korean Peninsula. These spatial differences in long-term temperature changes appear to be closely related to the heat transport pathways of warm water from the Kuroshio Current. High-resolution regional ocean reanalysis data, such as the K-ORA22E produced in this study, are essential foundational data for understanding long-term variability in the Korean marginal seas and analyzing the impacts of climate change.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.14-28
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• 2020

Future climate change may affect the hydro-thermal and biogeochemical characteristics of dam reservoirs, the most important water resources in Korea. Thus, scientific projection of the impact of climate change on the reservoir environment, factoring uncertainties, is crucial for sustainable water use. The purpose of this study was to predict the future water temperature and stratification structure of the Soyanggang Reservoir in response to a total of 42 scenarios, combining two climate scenarios, seven GCM models, one surface runoff model, and three wind scenarios of hydrodynamic model, and to quantify the uncertainty of each modeling step and scenario. Although there are differences depending on the scenarios, the annual reservoir water temperature tended to rise steadily. In the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the upper water temperature is expected to rise by 0.029 ℃ (±0.012)/year and 0.048 ℃ (±0.014)/year, respectively. These rise rates are correspond to 88.1 % and 85.7 % of the air temperature rise rate. Meanwhile, the lower water temperature is expected to rise by 0.016 ℃ (±0.009)/year and 0.027 ℃ (±0.010)/year, respectively, which is approximately 48.6 % and 46.3 % of the air temperature rise rate. Additionally, as the water temperatures rises, the stratification strength of the reservoir is expected to be stronger, and the number of days when the temperature difference between the upper and lower layers exceeds 5 ℃ increases in the future. As a result of uncertainty quantification, the uncertainty of the GCM models showed the highest contribution with 55.8 %, followed by 30.8 % RCP scenario, and 12.8 % W2 model.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.116-116
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• 2020

Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is a highly mountainous and remote region covering 45% of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) with around 1.8 million population is vulnerable to climate change and socio-economic growth makes water resources management and planning more complex. To understand the water scarcity in the region this study is carried out to project water supply and demand for agricultural and domestic sector under various climate-socio-economic scenarios in five sub catchments of GB i.e., Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok for a period of 2015 to 2050 using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. For climate change scenario ensembled mean of three global climate models (GCMs) was used under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and agricultural Land Development (LD) scenarios were combined with climate scenarios to develop climate-socio-economic scenario. Our results indicate that the climate change and socio-economic growth would create a gap between supply and demand of water in the region, with socio-economic growth (e.g. agricultural and population) as dominant external factor that would reduce food production and increase poverty level in the region. Among five catchments only Astore and Gilgit will face shortfall of water while Shyoke would face shortfall of water only under agricultural growth scenarios. We also observed that the shortfall of water in response to climate-socio-economic scenarios is totally different over two water deficient catchments due to its demography and geography. Finally, to help policy makers in developing regional water resources and management policies we classified five sub catchments of UIB according to its water deficiency level.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.39-42
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• 2001

There is general agreement that the mean land-surface air temperature of the Earth has increased by about 0.6 over the past century (Vinnikov et al., 1990; Jones, 1994). However, IPCC concluded in 1996 that the observed warming was "broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it was also the same magnitude as natural climate variability".(omitted).(omitted)

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.139-148
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• 2016

A seasonal outlook for crop insect pests is most valuable when it provides accurate information for timely management decisions. In this study, we investigated probable tele-connections between climatic phenomena and pest infestations in Korea using a statistical method. A rice insect pest, brown planthopper (BPH), was selected because of its migration characteristics, which fits well with the concept of our statistical modelling - utilizing a long-term, multi-regional influence of selected climatic phenomena to predict a dominant biological event at certain time and place. Variables of the seasonal climate forecast from 10 climate models were used as a predictor, and annual infestation area for BPH as a predictand in the statistical analyses. The Moving Window Regression model showed high correlation between the national infestation trends of BPH in South Korea and selected tempo-spatial climatic variables along with its sequential migration path. Overall, the statistical models developed in this study showed a promising predictability for BPH infestation in Korea, although the dynamical relationships between the infestation and selected climatic phenomena need to be further elucidated.