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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.2.147

Application of Monthly Water Balance Models for the Climate Change Impact Assessment  

Hwang, Jun-Shik (ESP Solution Technical Institute)
Jeong, Dae-Il (Engineering Research Institute, Seoul National Univ.)
Lee, Jae-Kyoung (School of Civil, Urban & Geosystem Eng., Seoul National Univ.)
Kim, Young-Oh (School of Civil, Urban & Geosystem Eng., Seoul National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.40, no.2, 2007 , pp. 147-158 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study attempted to determine a suitable hydrologic model for assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, and to assess the accuracy of streamflow scenarios simulated by the selected hydrologic model using the meteorological scenarios of the Seoul National University Regional Climate Model(SNURCM). Comparison of four water balance models and two daily conceptual rainfall-runoff models for the simulation capability of the Daecheong Dam inflow indicated that the abcd model performs the best among the tested water balance models and performs as well as SSARR that is popular as a daily rainfall-runoff model in Korea. Parameters of the abcd model were then estimated for 12 ungauged subbasins of the Geum River by the regionalization method. The model parameters were first calibrated at nine multi-purpose dams and were then regionalized using catchment characteristics for another four multi-purpose dams, which were assumed to be ungauged sites. The model efficiency(ME) coefficients of the simulated inflows for these four dams were at least 87%. The MEs of the hindcasted meteorological rainfall scenarios of the 12 subbasins of the Geum River were more than 60%. Moreover, the ME of the Daecheong Dam inflow simulated by the abcd model using the SNURCM rainfall scenarios was more than 80%. Therefore, this research concluded that the abcd model coupled with the SNU-RCM meteorological scenarios can be used for impact assessment studies of climate change on water resources.
Keywords
Climate change; monthly rainfall-runoff models; SNURCM; regionalization; water balance models;
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