• Title/Summary/Keyword: recession rate

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Study on Rate Dependent Fracture Behavior of Structures; Application to Brittle Materials Using Molecular Dynamics (구조물의 속도 의존적 파괴 특성에 대한 연구; 입자동역학을 이용한 취성재료에의 적용)

  • Kim, Kunhwi;Lim, Jihoon;Llim, Yun Mook
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.4A
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    • pp.529-536
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    • 2008
  • The failure behavior of structures is changed under different loading rates, which might arise from the rate dependency of materials. This phenomenon has been focused in the engineering fields. However, the failure mechanism is not fully understood yet, so that it is hard to be implemented in numerical simulations. In this study, the numerical experiments to a brittle material are simulated by the Molecular Dynamics (MD) for understanding the rate dependent failure behavior. The material specimen with a notch is modeled for the compact tension test simulation. Lennard-Jones potential is used to describe the properties of a brittle material. Several dynamic failure features under 6 different loading rates are achieved from the numerical experiments, where remarkable characteristics such as crack roughness, crack recession/arrest, and crack branching are observed during the crack propagation. These observations are interpreted by the energy inflow-consumption rates. This study will provides insight about the dynamic failure mechanism under different loading rates. In addition, the applicability of the MD to the macroscopic mechanics is estimated by simulating the previous experimental research.

Analysis of Characteristics and Determinants of Household Loans in Korea: Focusing on COVID-19 (국내 가계대출의 특징과 결정요인 분석: COVID-19를 중심으로)

  • Jin-Hee Jang;Jae-Bum Hong;Seung-Doo Choi
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - Since COVID-19, the government's expansion of liquidity to stimulate the economy has resulted in an increase in private debt and an increase in asset prices of such as real estate and stocks. The recent sharp rise of the US Federal fund rate and tapering by the Fed have led to a fast rise in domestic interest rates, putting a heavy burden on the Korean economy, where the level of household debt is very high. Excessive household debt might have negative effects on the economy, such as shrinking consumption, economic recession, and deepening economic inequality. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to identify the causes of the increase in household debt. Design/methodology/approach - Main methodology is regression analysis. Dependent variable is household loans from depository institutions. Independent variables are consumer price index, unemployment rate, household loan interest rate, housing sales price index, and composite stock price index. The sample periods are from 2017 to May 2022, comprising 72 months of data. The comparative analysis period before and after COVID-19 is from January 2017 to December 2019 for the pre-COVID-19 period, and from Jan 2020 to December 2022 for the post-COVID-19 period. Findings - Looking at the results of the regression analysis for the entire period, it was found that increases in the consumer price index, unemployment rate, and household loan interest rates decrease household loans, while increases in the housing sales price index increase household loans. Research implications or Originality - Household loans of depository institutions are mainly made up of high-credit and high-income borrowers with good repayment ability, so the risk of the financial system is low. As household loans are closely linked to the real estate market, the risk of household loan defaults may increase if real estate prices fall sharply.

A Study on the Perception Level Differences Between Staffs and Students on University Employment Supporting Activities in Choong-buk Province, Korea (충북지역 대학의 취업지원 활동에 대한 대학 취업담당자와 대학생들 간의 인식의 차이)

  • Kim, Dong-Hwan;Oh, Sang-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.8
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    • pp.3510-3516
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    • 2011
  • Due to the economic recession and corporation's growth without more jobs, college graduates unemployment issue has been emerged as a serious social problem. Since the employment rate of each college became an important factor of college evaluation by the government, each college is trying to increase the employment rate of students. Therefore universities are supporting student employment through various policies and programs. However there have been perception differences in intention of employment supporting activities, final results, preparedness, student satisfaction level and overall effectiveness level of program between students and university career center staff members. The perception differences may lead not only to the waste of budget but also ineffectiveness of various programs to promote student employment. Therefore this research proposed new revised efficient employment supporting programs of universities and desirable attitude of students to increase the effectiveness of student employment based on the analysis of perception level on the several issues such as degree of usefulness of program and satisfaction level of students.

Data Envelopment Analysis of Managerial Efficiency of China, Korea and Other Global Retail Distributors (자료포락분석을 이용한 중국·한국·글로벌 소매유통업체 경영효율성 분석)

  • Wang, Peng;Kim, Moon-Hong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.91-101
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study compares the management efficiency of retailers in China, Korea and other global countries. China's retail industry is experiencing a recession. In order to strengthen the competitiveness of retailers, it is necessary to manage the efficiency. Therefore, we analyzed the management efficiency of Chinese retailers as well as Korea and global retailers who are competing with Chinese retailers. Research design, data, and methodology - The DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) carried out for evaluating the relative efficiency of multiple DMUs (decision making units) with homogeneity. Data were collected from the American Retail Trade Association (2017). In those distributors' data, 5 of China and 5 of Korea and 10 of other global countries' analyzed. CCR and BCC analysis were performed to determine the cause of the inefficiency of DMUs by measuring the technical efficiency, pure technology efficiency and scale efficiency. Result - Among the 20 retail distributors, Costco, Kroger (Global), Eland World, BGF(Korea) are operating efficiently. Chinese retailers are operating inefficiently. Retailers' CRS status means the growth rate of input is equal to the growth rate of output. In the case of DRS status, the ratio of output to input variable is much smaller. In order to improve inefficiency, reducing input variables can be a solution. For the firms in IRS status, the rate of increase in output is relative greater than the input. That means efficiency is good condition. The analysis result shows that most retailers are showing DRS status especially Chinese retailers. Scale efficiency is a major cause of inefficiency rather than pure technology efficiency. It is recommended for ineffective retailers to reduce inputs to become efficient retailers. Otherwise, retrain existing employees or introducing advanced technologies to increase the output. Conclusions - Most of Chinese retailers are operating inefficiently which caused by the excessive investment in the inputs. On the other hand, Other global retailers are analyzed to be efficient by DEA. In this study, benchmarking targets of some retailers' suggested to improve the management efficiency especially in inputs.

A default-rate comparison of the construction and other industries using survival analysis method (생존분석기법을 이용한 건설업과 타 업종간의 부도율 비교 분석)

  • Park, Jin-Kyung;Oh, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Min-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.747-756
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    • 2010
  • With the recent recession, studies on the economy are actively being conducted throughout the industry. Based on the Small Business data registered in the Credit Guarantee Fund, we estimated the survival probability in the context of the survival analysis. We also analyzed the survival time for the construction and the other industries which are distinguished depending on the types of business and assets in the Small Business. The survival probability was estimated by using the life-table and the difference between the survival probabilities for the different types of business was described via the method of the Log-rank test and the Wilcoxon test. We found that the small business with over one billion asset has the highest survival probability and that with less than 1000 million asset showed the similar survival probability. In terms of types of business Wholesale and Retail trade industry and Services were relatively high in the survival probability than Light, Heavy, and the construction industries. Especially the construction industry showed the lowest survival probability. Most of the Small Business tend to increase in the hazard rate over time.

Characteristics of the Rainfall-Runoff and Groundwater Level Change at Milbot Bog located in Mt.Cheonseong (천성산 밀밭늪의 강우 유출 및 지하수위 변동 특성)

  • Jung, Yu-Gyeong;Lee, Sang-Won;Lee, Heon-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.99 no.4
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    • pp.559-567
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to investigate the hydrological characteristics of groundwater level change and rainfall hydrological runoff processes caused by tunnel construction at Milbot bog located in Mt. Cheonseong. Data were collected from July 2004 to May 2008. The results were summarized as follows: The occurrence time of the direct runoff caused by unit rainfall at the Milbot bog were tended to be slower than those at general mountainous basin. Also, runoff did not sensitively respond to amount of rainfall at the most of the long and short term hydrograph. The annual runoff rates from 2004 to 2008 were 0.26, 0.13, 0.16, 0.25 and 0.27, respectively, slightly increased after 2005 regardless of the tunnel construction. Thus, the function of Milbot bog will be weakened, and it supposed to be changed to land in the future because of increasing annual runoff. The annual runoff rate for 4 years was 0.19, which is greatly lower than that of general mountainous basin. The recession coefficient of the direct runoff in short term hydrograph was ranged to 0.89~0.97, which is much larger than that of the general mountainous basin, 0.2~0.8. The recession coefficient of base flow ranged from 0.93 to 0.99, which are similar to general mountainous watershed's values. Groundwater level of Milbot bog increased or decreased in proportion to rainfall intensity, and in the descending time after the groundwater level was reached at peak point, it tends to be decreased very slowly. Also, groundwater level increased or decreased maintaining relatively high value after precedent rainfall. Groundwater level was highest during summer with heavy rainfall, but was lowest during winter. Average groundwater levels decreased annually from 2004 to 2008, -8.48 cm, -14.60 cm, -20.46 cm, -20.11 cm, -28.59 cm, respectively. Therefore, it seems that the Milbot bog is becoming dry and losing its function as a bog.

Effect of the Spread on Housing Mortgage Loans (가산금리가 주택담보대출에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Woo Seok
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.75-88
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the spread on housing mortgage loans. In particular, this study analyzes how the spread has a decisive effect on housing mortgage loans when a structural change occurs in the spread. For the sake of empirical analysis, this study utilizes the housing mortgage loan, housing mortgage loan interest rate, COFIX interest rate, and spread. The period of analysis is from December 2010 to December 2017. Results of the analysis show that there is a statistically significant structural change in the spread and housing mortgage loans (May and June 2015, respectively). It is estimated that the structural change in the spread has an influence on the structural change in housing mortgage loans. In addition, the effect of the spread on housing mortgage loans is larger than the effect of the COFIX interest rate and the housing mortgage loan interest rate. This indicates that the adjustment of the spread is a significant burden on housing mortgage loans. As economic uncertainties both internally and externally are increasing, pressure on interest rate hikes is also increasing. Considering these circumstances, interest rate hikes will be inevitable in the future. If the base interest rate and the spread increase simultaneously at Korea's current economic level, it will obviously lead to an economic recession as the burden on the repayment of principal and interest of housing mortgage loans will increase. Therefore, it is imperative that financial authorities prepare institutional arrangements in order to protect financial consumers by preventing arbitrary calculation of the spread, which would not be objective and would not be transparent from the banks.

A Study on the Survival Characteristics of the Restaurant Business in Major and Side-Street Trade Areas, Seoul (서울시 발달상권과 골목상권의 일반음식점 생존특성 연구)

  • Kim, Dongjun;Yi, Changhyo;Lee, Seungil
    • Journal of Korea Planning Association
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.76-90
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the survival characteristics of the restaurant business by trade area type (major and side street). By the increase of the unemployment rate, the new foundation of selt-employment type is increasing. However, due to high competition and economic recession, the sustainability of new foundation is not high. Therefore, in this study, survival analysis was performed considering the individual and commercial characteristics focused on the ordinary restaurants. The major findings are as follow. First, the characteristics of parcel unit and adjacent area have a significant effect on the survival. This means the micro-scopic spatial characteristics should be considered for survival in the location choice. Second, the regional economic characteristics in trade area have a significant effect on survival. Furthermore, these characteristics are different by the trade area type. Third. the development characteristics have a different effect on survival by the building usage and trade area type. Finally, regional economic characteristics have a significant effect on survival. These results are expected to be used as basic data for commercial location selection and trade area analysis system in the private and public sectors.

Analysis of Factors Affecting on the Freight Rate of Container Carriers (컨테이너 운임에 미치는 영향요인 분석)

  • Ahn, Young-Gyun;Ko, Byoung-Wook
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.159-177
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    • 2018
  • The container shipping sector is an important international logistics operation that connects open economies. Freight rates rapidly change as the market fluctuates, and staff related to the shipping market are interested in factors that determine freight rates in the container market. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) to estimate the impact of factors affecting container freight rates. This study uses data published by Clarksons. The analysis results show a 4.2% increase in freight rates when world container traffic increases at 1.0%, a 4.0% decrease in freight rates when volume of container carriers increases by 1.0%, a 0.07% increase in freight rates when bunker price increases by 1.0%, and a 0.04% increase in freight rates accompanying 1.0% increase in libor interests rates. In addition, if the current freight rate is 1.0% higher than the long-term equilibrium rate, the freight rate will be reduced by 3.2% in the subsequent term. In addition, if the current freight rate is 1.0% lower than the long-term equilibrium rate, the freight rate will decrease by 0.12% in the following term. However, the adjusting power in a period of recession is not statistically significant which means that the pressure of freight rate increase in this case is neglectable. This research is expected to contribute to the utilization of scientific methods in forecasting container freight rates.

Demand Pattern of the Global Passengers: Sea and Air Transport (글로벌 여객의 해상과 항공운송에 대한 수요패턴)

  • Mo, Soo-Won
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2011
  • The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of exchange rate and economic business activity on the passengers' demand for international transportation. The demand pattern depends upon the transport vehicles that the global passengers take. The global passengers' demand for transportation is modelled as exchange rate, industrial production and seasonal dummy variables. The seasonality is found in both water and air, but the former is far greater than the latter. All series span the period January 1990 to December 2008. The empirical results of this paper reveal that the income elasticity of sea transport is greater than that of air one, all of which are positive. The study also shows that the exchange rate has an significant impact on the demand for air transport, whereas it is insignificant in water transport. The impulse response function indicates that passengers increase steadily before peaking seven to eight months after the shocks to economic business activity and decline very slowly to its pre-shock level. The air passengers also respond negatively to the shocks in exchange rate and the impacts of exchange rate shock seem to decrease relatively slowly, while the water passengers respond positively after six months. The industrial production shocks remain above equilibrium for more than twenty four months, while the exchange rate shocks remain below equilibrium for more than twenty four months. Boosted by improved economic conditions worldwide, international tourism has recovered faster than expected from the impacts of the global financial crisis and economic recession of late 2008 and 2009. These facts suggest that the demand of global water transport has the high possibility of growing steadily and continuously.