• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.1-9
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• 2020

Interest rate spreads indicate the conditions of the economy and serve as an indicator of the recession. The purpose of this study is to predict Korea's interest rate spreads using US data with long-term continuity. To this end, 27 US economic data were used, and the entire data was reduced to 5 dimensions through principal component analysis to build a dataset necessary for prediction. In the prediction model of this study, three RNN models (BasicRNN, LSTM, and GRU) predict the US interest rate spread and use the predicted results in the SVR ensemble model to predict the Korean interest rate spread. The SVR ensemble model predicted Korea's interest rate spread as RMSE 0.0658, which showed more accurate predictive power than the general ensemble model predicted as RMSE 0.0905, and showed excellent performance in terms of tendency to respond to fluctuations. In addition, improved prediction performance was confirmed through period division according to policy changes. This study presented a new way to predict interest rates and yielded better results. We predict that if you use refined data that represents the global economic situation through follow-up studies, you will be able to show higher interest rate predictions and predict economic conditions in Korea as well as other countries.

• The Journal of shipping and logistics
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.545-563
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• 2018

This study analyzes the major factors affecting the freight rates of Very Large Crude-Oil Carriers (VLCC) using co-integration and vector error correction models (VECM). Particularly, we estimate the long-term equilibrium function that determines the VLCC freight rate by conducting difference conversion. In the VECM regression analysis, the error term converges toward long-term balance irrespective of whether the previous period's freight rate is bigger or smaller than the long-term equilibrium rate. Thus, even if the current rate is different from the long-term rate, it eventually converges to the long-term balance irrespective of a boom or recession. This study follows Ko and Ahn (2018), which analyzed the factors affecting the chemical carrier freight rate and was published in the Journal of Shipping and Logistics (Vol. 34, No. 2). It is expected that an academic comparison of the results of each study will be possible if further research is conducted on other vessel types, such as container ships and dry cargo vessels.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.10a
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• pp.7-13
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• 2011

RAMS is the procedure to maximize the reliability and availability of systems with managing operation rate, the frequency of failure in the system and repair method. Recently, all system life-cycle focusing on RAMS process has been rapidly developing in the field of railway vehicles, for example, applying th reliability management techniques for procurement and disposal of EMU. In particular, global economic recession require to reasonable measures for the EMU maintenance costs under the circumstances therefore, an alternative solution based on RCM(Reliability Centered Maintenance) which is the optimal maintenance method is interested. In this study, the state of being critical of each component and a primary factors was analyzed to improve VVVF inverter of the line 7 EMU by applying FMECA process. Furthermore, this paper showed the impact of connecting between the main and sub system. Based on these data, critical components according to malfunction ratings were classified by screening measures and improvements for each components was summarized.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.4724-4731
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• 1978

Using hydrometric data from an upland river in North Wales, a relationship between rate of river flow and water stored within the catchment area (catchment storage) is assumed to exist, and is evaluated from an analysis of winter recession curves. This storage/river flow relationship, when combined with water balance equations, produces a set of equations which may be used for "routing" input of rainfall through a storage with defined outflow characteristics, providing a straightforward method of flood prediction and analysis from rainfall data. Recorded and predicted flood hydrographs are compared, and the effectiveness and limitations of the method are considered. The development of a complete mathematical model, embodying the storage/river flow relationship, and suitable for generation of continuous run-off records from rainfall and evaporation data, is also considered.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2009.11a
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• pp.483-493
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• 2009

The global economic recession caused a great change of the labor environment such as restructurings and unstable employment. This facts brought about an increase in sense of rivalry, over workload, job uncertainty and lowering of self-confidence. Due to the fact that the work process and employing system in construction field is little differ from normal industries, especially, labors working in construction field are much exposed to the job stress. On this study, we survey construction-field labors and made an analysis of the gathered data through the statistic method to reveal what kind of job-stress factors influence on the defects of construction works. As the result, we investigated the truth of the induction factors which cause the job-stress in costruction field and proposed an alternative plan for an effective job-stress management which make the defect rate low.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2007.03a
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• pp.490-497
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• 2007

Since the foreign currency crisis, Korean economy has suffered recession and the government launches residence and real estate policy in order to increase the demand and trade of real estate and to help the economy revitalization. 1 As a result, the rate of economy growth is shown the high increase with the figure of 10.9% in 1999 and 8.8% in 2000. However, it brings overheating market as a negative effect. Although, the government established the policy for the control of speculation, the policy causes instability of economy. This study is to analyze the effect between the residence policy and the housing cost since the foreign currency crisis through housing sale price estimation and housing lease price estimation and is to apply the basis data of the next residence policy.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2019

This article assumes that the first newtown has declined in Korea. Urban regeneration projects should be implemented for regeneration for CBD in Newtown as well as small local cities. The purpose of this article is to analyze the character of the subway area and to suggest the key issues for regeneartion in the subway area. Especially focussing on the local important commercial function in 5 subway areas. As a result of analyzing 5 subway areas according to basic statistical data, field interviews, and legal decline diagnostic index, all five commercial districts showed decline. In particular, the decline of Baekseok Station area appears to be serious, and there is a key factor that attracts the decline of the commercial area such as the long - term building or the closure rate of each commercial area. In addition, the vacancy rate is increasing due to large distribution facilities in new cities, the entry of new floating facilities on the outskirts, and unsold new stores, and the recession is accelerating. In this way, the signs of decline in the core of the new city are enriched, but the current Urban Regeneration Act is a legal system with a policy goal of regeneration of small and medium cities in the provinces as a system to promote the function of core bases rather than the overall redevelopment of new cities. Therefore, preemptive response is needed for the regeneration in those areas.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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• v.65 no.7
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• pp.86-100
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• 2015

This study is to investigate the relationships between heel height and macro-economic factors - recession and unemployment; and to analyze the time lags reflecting economic factors on heel height index using U.S. data. The life-history evolution theory was applied to propose the relationships studied. The data for the heel height measurements of women's shoes - pump style only - were obtained from US Vogue fashion editorial sections on spring and fall editions from 1950 to 2014. I divided the heel height by the length of the shoes in order to standardize the data. Total of 1581 samples were used, and heel height data were aggregated to create a yearly average. To explore the relationships between macro-economic factors and heel height, this study used OLS of Stata 13 program. The main findings show that unemployment rates influenced heel height for three years in a positive direction. Furthermore, the effects of unemployment rate from two years ago on the current heel height were very close to being on a significant level.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.77-92
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• 2014

The focus of this study is to analyse dynamic relationship among BDI(Baltic Dry-bulk Index, hereafter BDI), forex market and industrial production using monthly data from 2003-2013. Specifically, we have focused on the investigations how monetary and real variable affect shipping industry during recession period. To compare performance between general VAR and Bayesian VAR we first examine DAG(Directed Acyclic Graph) to clarify causality among the variables and then employ MSFE(mean squared forecast error). The overall estimated results from impulse-response analysis imply that BDI has been strongly affected by other shock, such as forex market and industrial production in Bayesian VAR. In particular, Bayesian VAR show better performance than general VAR in forecasting.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.109 no.4
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• pp.429-437
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• 2020

In this study we quantified the long-term change in discharge against precipitation in a forested watershed and investigated how the growth of forest trees influences these changes. We found a proportional relationship between precipitation and discharge for each year, and discharge decreased gradually with time. Precipitation and discharge were highest in July and August, and the changes in precipitation, discharge, and runoff rate did not always coincide, given that high runoff rate was shown in August and September. The monthly coefficient of variation (CV) for discharge was larger than that for precipitation, and the deviation between precipitation and discharge increased gradually. From 2011 to 2017, the gradient of the trend line for the change of total discharge and direct runoff against precipitation decreased, whereas the gradient of the base flow increased in this same time period. A possible explanation is that the water holding capacity of soil deposits increased as the forest soil of the Palgong Mountain watershed developed and the increase of base flow rose with groundwater level together with that of outflow quantity. The coefficient of flood recession was lower in the period 2011 to 2017 than in 2003 to 2010; thus, the reduction of discharge was mitigated and remained steady as time progressed. We conclude from these results that the discharge of surface runoff decreased as tree growth and base flow increased; however, the water yield function of the forest increased gradually.