• Title/Summary/Keyword: receiver operating characteristic curve

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Predicting Mortality in Patients with Tuberculous Destroyed Lung Receiving Mechanical Ventilation

  • Kim, Won-Young;Kim, Mi-Hyun;Jo, Eun-Jung;Eom, Jung Seop;Mok, Jeongha;Kim, Ki Uk;Park, Hye-Kyung;Lee, Min Ki;Lee, Kwangha
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.81 no.3
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    • pp.247-255
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    • 2018
  • Background: Patients with acute respiratory failure secondary to tuberculous destroyed lung (TDL) have a poor prognosis. The aim of the present retrospective study was to develop a mortality prediction model for TDL patients who require mechanical ventilation. Methods: Data from consecutive TDL patients who had received mechanical ventilation at a single university-affiliated tertiary care hospital in Korea were reviewed. Binary logistic regression was used to identify factors predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. A TDL on mechanical Ventilation (TDL-Vent) score was calculated by assigning points to variables according to ${\beta}$ coefficient values. Results: Data from 125 patients were reviewed. A total of 36 patients (29%) died during ICU admission. On the basis of multivariate analysis, the following factors were included in the TDL-Vent score: age ${\geq}65$ years, vasopressor use, and arterial partial pressure of oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio <180. In a second regression model, a modified score was then calculated by adding brain natriuretic peptide. For TDL-Vent scores 0 to 3, the 60-day mortality rates were 11%, 27%, 30%, and 77%, respectively (p<0.001). For modified TDL-Vent scores 0 to ${\geq}3$, the 60-day mortality rates were 0%, 21%, 33%, and 57%, respectively (p=0.001). For both the TDL-Vent score and the modified TDL-Vent score, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were larger than that of other illness severity scores. Conclusion: The TDL-Vent model identifies TDL patients on mechanical ventilation with a high risk of mortality. Prospective validation studies in larger cohorts are now warranted.

Surgical indication analysis according to bony defect size in pediatric orbital wall fractures

  • Kim, Seung Hyun;Choi, Jun Ho;Hwang, Jae Ha;Kim, Kwang Seog;Lee, Sam Yong
    • Archives of Craniofacial Surgery
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.276-282
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    • 2020
  • Background: Orbital fractures are the most common pediatric facial fractures. Treatment is conservative due to the anatomical differences that make children more resilient to severe displacement or orbital volume change than adults. Although rarely, extensive fractures may result in enophthalmos, causing cosmetic problems. We aimed to establish criteria for extensive fractures that may result in enophthalmos. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the charts of patients aged 0-15 years diagnosed with orbital fractures in our hospital from January 2010 to February 2019. Computed tomography images were used to classify the fractures into linear, trapdoor, and open-door types, and to estimate the defect size. Data on enophthalmos severity (Hertel exophthalmometry results) and fracture pattern and size at the time of injury were obtained from patients who did not undergo surgery during the follow-up and were used to identify the surgical indications for pediatric orbital fractures. Results: A total of 305 pediatric patients with pure orbital fractures were included-257 males (84.3%), 48 females (15.7%); mean age, 12.01±2.99 years. The defect size (p=0.002) and fracture type (p=0.017) were identified as the variables affecting the enophthalmometric difference between the eyes of non-operated patients. In the linear regression analysis, the variable affecting the fracture size was open-door type fracture (p<0.001). Pearson's correlation analysis demonstrated a positive correlation between the enophthalmometric difference and the bony defect size (p=0.003). Using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, a cutoff value of 1.81 ㎠ was obtained (sensitivity, 0.543; specificity, 0.724; p=0.002). Conclusion: The incidence of enophthalmos in pediatric pure orbital fractures was found to increase with fracture size, with an even higher incidence when open-door type fracture was a cofactor. In clinical settings, pediatric orbital fractures larger than 1.81 ㎠ may be considered as extensive fractures that can result in enophthalmos and consequent cosmetic problems.

Validity Assessment of Self-reported Smoking Status: Results from the Korean National Environmental Health Survey (KoNEHS) 2009-2011 (흡연상태에 관한 자가보고 설문의 타당도 평가: 제1기(2009-2011) 국민환경보건기초조사 자료 분석)

  • Choi, Wookhee;Park, Kyung Hwa;Kim, Hyun Jeong;Ryu, Jungmin;Yu, Seung Do;Choi, Kyunghee;Kim, Suejin
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.492-501
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of self-reported cigarette smoking status and investigate factors associated with the accuracy self-reported and measured urinary cotinine in Korean adults. Methods: We used data from the $1^{st}$ Korean National Environmental Health Survey (2009-2011) among adults aged ${\geq}19$ years (N=6,246). The survey examined self-reported smoking status, and urinary cotinine was regarded as the biomarker of exposure to tobacco smoke. Urinary cotinine was analyzed using a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and data analysis was conducted using IBM SPSS version 20.0, which uses the sample weight and calculates variance estimates to adjust for the unequal probability of selection into the survey. Results: We calculated a cut-off point (53.3 ug/L) by using a ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve. The smoking prevalence was 24.6% based on self-reported data and 28.2% based on urinary cotinine concentrations. When we assessed the agreement between self-reported and urinary cotinine, we found an average agreement of 97.7% among self-reported smokers and 94.5% among self-reported non-smokers. Among self-reported smokers, factors affected the discrepancy were age, household economic status and average number of cigarettes smoked per day. On the other hand, gender, former smoking experience, and exposure to SHS (second hand smoke) were associated with discrepancies among self-reported non-smokers. Conclusion: These results suggest that self-reported data on smoking status provide a valid estimate of actual smoking status. In future research, we will conduct a continuous monitoring study for reliability verification of the data to reduce potential interpretation errors.

Use of an Artificial Neural Network to Construct a Model of Predicting Deep Fungal Infection in Lung Cancer Patients

  • Chen, Jian;Chen, Jie;Ding, Hong-Yan;Pan, Qin-Shi;Hong, Wan-Dong;Xu, Gang;Yu, Fang-You;Wang, Yu-Min
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.5095-5099
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    • 2015
  • Background: The statistical methods to analyze and predict the related dangerous factors of deep fungal infection in lung cancer patients were several, such as logic regression analysis, meta-analysis, multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis, retrospective analysis, and so on, but the results are inconsistent. Materials and Methods: A total of 696 patients with lung cancer were enrolled. The factors were compared employing Student's t-test or the Mann-Whitney test or the Chi-square test and variables that were significantly related to the presence of deep fungal infection selected as candidates for input into the final artificial neural network analysis (ANN) model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) model and logistic regression (LR) model. Results: The prevalence of deep fungal infection from lung cancer in this entire study population was 32.04%(223/696), deep fungal infections occur in sputum specimens 44.05%(200/454). The ratio of candida albicans was 86.99% (194/223) in the total fungi. It was demonstrated that older (${\geq}65$ years), use of antibiotics, low serum albumin concentrations (${\leq}37.18g/L$), radiotherapy, surgery, low hemoglobin hyperlipidemia (${\leq}93.67g/L$), long time of hospitalization (${\geq}14$days) were apt to deep fungal infection and the ANN model consisted of the seven factors. The AUC of ANN model($0.829{\pm}0.019$)was higher than that of LR model ($0.756{\pm}0.021$). Conclusions: The artificial neural network model with variables consisting of age, use of antibiotics, serum albumin concentrations, received radiotherapy, received surgery, hemoglobin, time of hospitalization should be useful for predicting the deep fungal infection in lung cancer.

Total Serum Bile Acid as a Potential Marker for the Diagnosis of Cholangiocarcinoma without Jaundice

  • Sombattheera, Sutthikan;Proungvitaya, Tanakorn;Limpaiboon, Temduang;Wongkham, Sopit;Wongkham, Chaisiri;Luvira, Vor;Proungvitaya, Siriporn
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1367-1370
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    • 2015
  • Diagnosis of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is difficult when patients do not show jaundice. The aim of this study was to examine the feasibility of using the total serum bile acid (TSBA) level as an aid for the diagnosis of CCA in patients without jaundice. For this purpose, TSBA of the following groups were measured using a Beckman Synchron CX4 clinical chemistry analyzer: 60 cases of CCA with total serum bilirubin ${\leq}2mg/dL$ (low total bilirubin group, LTB); 32 cases of CCA with total serum bilirubin >2 mg/dL (high total bilirubin group, HTB); and 115 healthy controls. Liver function parameters such as serum cholesterol, albumin, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) were also examined. The results showed that the TSBA of both LTB and HTB groups of the CCA patients were significantly higher than that of the healthy controls. Also, significant correlation was observed between TSBA and total bilirubin levels in the HTB group of CCA patients. However, no such correlation was seen in the LTB group. The cut-off value of TSBA was determined for the LTB group of CCA patients using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and it was $6.05{\mu}mol/L$ with the sensitivity and specificity of 46.7% and 84.4%, respectively. In addition, the ALP level was correlated well with the TSBA level and ALP in HTB group was significantly higher than that of LTB group. Moreover, the combination of high TSBA and high ALP levels gave higher specificity up to 97.4%. TSBA might be useful for the diagnosis of CCA patients without jaundice.

Performance of the R-way Colposcopic Evaluation System in Cervical Cancer Screening

  • Zhao, Jian;Zhang, Xi;Chen, Rui;Zhao, Yu-Qian;Wang, Ting-Ting;He, Shan;Qiao, You-Lin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.4223-4228
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    • 2015
  • Objective: To investigate the diagnostic value of the R-way colposcopic evaluation system (R-way system) in cervical cancer screening. Materials and Methods: Between August 2013 and August 2014, a total of 1,059 cases referred to colposcopy in Peking University First Hospital were studied using both the R-way system and conventional colposcopy. Our study evaluated and compared the diagnostic ability of the two methods in detecting high-grade lesions and cervical cancer (hereinafter called CIN2+). Evaluation indicators including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), Youden index and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were calculated. Results: The R-way system had a slightly lower specificity (94.5%) than conventional colposcopy (96.0%) for CIN2+ detection (P=0.181). However, the sensitivity (77.8%) was significantly higher than with the conventional colposcopic method (46.6%) (${\chi}^2=64.351$, P<0.001). In addition, the AUC of the ROC for CIN2+ detection using the R-way system (0.839) was larger than that with conventional colposcopy (0.731) (Z=4.348, P<0.001). If preliminary result had been drawn from cervical exfoliated cytology before colposcopy referral, combination of the R-way system with cytology could increase the sensitivity to 93.9% for CIN2+ detection (excluding ASCUS\LSIL), confirmed by multipoint biopsy or ECC. Conclusions: The diagnostic value of the R-way evaluation system is higher than that of conventional colposcopic evaluation in cervical cancer screening. Moreover, taking the ease of use and standardized quality control management into account, the R-way system is highly preferable.

Selection and optimization of nutritional risk screening tools for esophageal cancer patients in China

  • Dong, Wen;Liu, Xiguang;Zhu, Shunfang;Lu, Di;Cai, Kaican;Cai, Ruijun;Li, Qing;Zeng, Jingjing;Li, Mei
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.20-24
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    • 2020
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Malnutrition has multiple impacts on surgical success, postoperative complications, duration of hospital stay, and costs, particularly for cancer patients. There are various nutrition risk screening tools available for clinical use. Herein, we aim to determine the most appropriate nutritional risk screening system for esophageal cancer (EC) patients in China. SUBJECTS/METHODS: In total, 138 EC patients were enrolled in this study and evaluated by experienced nurses using three different nutritional screening tools, the Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 tool (NRS2002), the Patient-generated Subjective Globe Assessment (PG-SGA), and the Nutrition Risk Index (NRI).We compared sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and Youden index generated by each of the three screening tools. Finally, cut-off points for all three tools were re-defined to optimize and validate the best nutritional risk screening tool for assessing EC patients. RESULTS: Our data suggested that all three screening tools were 100% sensitive for EC patients, while the specificities were 44.4%, 2.96%, and 59.26% for NRS 2002, PG-SGA, and NRI, respectively. NRI had a higher positive likelihood ratio as well as a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve compared to those of NRS 2002 and PG-SGA; although, all three tools had null negative likelihood ratios. After adjusting the cut-off points, the specificity and accuracy for all tools were significantly improved, however, the NRI remained the most appropriate nutritional risk screening system for EC patients. CONCLUSIONS: The NRI is the most suitable (highest sensitivity and accuracy) nutritional risk screening tool for EC patients. The performance of the NRI can be significantly improved if the cut-off point is modified according to the results obtained using MedCalc software.

Meaning of the DR-$70^{TM}$ Immunoassay for Patients with the Malignant Tumor (악성 종양 환자에 대한 DR-$70^{TM}$ 면역 분석법의 의의: Validation Study)

  • Lee, Ki-Ho;Cho, Dong-Hee;Kim, Sang-Man;Lee, Duck-Joo;Kim, Kwang-Min
    • IMMUNE NETWORK
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2006
  • Background: The DR-$70^{TM}$ immunoassay is a newly developed cancer diagnostic test which quantifies the serum fibrin degradation products (FDP), produced during fibrinolysis, by antibody reaction. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential of DR-$70^{TM}$ Immunoassay in screening malignant tumor. Methods: Sample subjects were 4,169 adults, both male and female, who visited the health promotion center of a general hospital from March 2004 to April 2005 and underwent the DR-$70^{TM}$ immunoassay test and other tests for cancer diagnosis. The patient group was defined as 42 adults out of the sample subjects who were newly diagnosed with cancer during the same time period when the DR-$70^{TM}$ immunoassay test was performed. Final confirmation of a malignant tumor was made by pathological analysis. Results: The mean DR-$70^{TM}$ level was $0.83{\pm}0.65{\mu}g/ml$ (range: 0.00 (0.0001)${\sim}7.42{\mu}g/ml)$ in the control group (n=4,127) as opposed to $2.70{\pm}2.33{\mu}g/ml$ (range: $0.12{\sim}9.30{\mu}g/ml)$ in the cancer group (n=42), and statistical significance was established (p<0.0001, Student t-test). When categorized by the type of malignant tumor, all cancer patients with the exception of the subgroups of colon and rectal cancer showed significantly higher mean DR-$70^{TM}$ levels compared with the control group (p<0.0001, Kruscal-Wallis test). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed ${\geq}1.091{\mu}g/ml$ as the best cut-off value. Using this cut-off value, the DR-$70^{TM}$ immunoassay produced a sensitivity of 71.4%, a specificity of 70.1%, a positive predictability of 69.4%, and a negative predictability of 69.2% (1). Conclusion: A significant increase in the mean DR-$70^{TM}$ value was observed in the cancer group (thyroidal, gastric, breast, hepatic and ovarian) com pared with the control group. In particular, the specificity and sensitivity of the DR-$70^{TM}$ immunoassay was relatively high in the subgroups of breast, gastric, and thyroidal cancer patients. There is need for further studies on a large number of malignant tumor patients to see how the DR-$70^{TM}$ level might be changed according to the differentiation grade and postoperative prognosis of the malignant tumor.

Prognosis in the Patients with Prolonged Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

  • Kim, Tae-Hun;Lim, Cheong;Park, Il;Kim, Dong-Jin;Jung, Yo-Chun;Park, Kay-Hyun
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.236-241
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    • 2012
  • Background: Prolonged usage of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) may induce multi-organ failure. This study is aimed to evaluate prognostic factors in the patients with ECMO. Also, the prognosis of ECMO with Kidney Injury Network Scoring system is studied. Materials and Methods: From May 2005 to July 2011, 172 cases of ECMO were performed. The cases of perioperative use of ECMO were excluded. Renal failure patient and younger than 15 years old one were also excluded. As a result, 26 cases were enrolled in this study. Male patients were 15 (57.7%), and mean age was $56.57{\pm}17.03$ years old. Demographic data, ECMO parameters, weaning from ECMO, and application of continuous renal replacement therapy are collected and Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) scores were evaluated just before ECMO and day 1, day 2 during application of ECMO. Results: Venoarterial ECMO was applied in 22 cases (84.6%). The reasons for applications of ECMO were cardiac origin in 21 (80.8%), acute respiratory distress syndrome in 4, and septic shock in 1 case. Successful weaning from ECMO was achieved in 15 cases (57.7%), and survival discharge rate was 9 cases (34.6%). Mean duration of application of ECMO was $111.39{\pm}54.06$ hours. In univariate analysis, myocarditis was independent risk factors on weaning failure. Using the receiver operating characteristic curve, level of hemoglobin on 24 hours after ECMO, and base excess on 48 hours after ECMO were showed more than 0.7. AKIN score was not matched the prognosis of the patients with ECMO. Conclusion: In our study, the prognosis of the patients with myocarditis was poor. Hemoglobin level at first 24 hours, and degree of acidosis at 48 hours were useful methods in relating with prognosis of ECMO. AKIN scoring system was not related with the prognosis of the patients. Further study for prognosis and organ injury during application ECMO may be needed.

Procalcitonin in 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pneumonia: Role in Differentiating from Bacterial Pneumonia (2009 H1N1 인플루엔자 폐렴에서 Procalcitonin의 유용성: 세균성 폐렴과의 감별 역할)

  • Ahn, Shin;Kim, Won-Young;Yoon, Ji-Young;Sohn, Chang-Hwan;Seo, Dong-Woo;Kim, Sung-Han;Hong, Sang-Bum;Lim, Chae-Man;Koh, Youn-Suck;Kim, Won
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.68 no.4
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    • pp.205-211
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    • 2010
  • Background: Procalcitonin is a well known marker in infection that plays a role in distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections in screening. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the role of procalcitonin in differentiating between 2009 H1N1 influenza pneumonia and community acquired pneumonia of bacterial origin, or mixed bacterial origin and 2009 H1N1 influenza infection. Methods: A retrospective observational study was performed over the 6-month winter period during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Ninety-six patient-subjects were enrolled, all of whom had been diagnosed with community acquired pneumonia in emergency department during the study period. On admission, laboratory studies were performed, which included 2009 H1N1 influenza real-time polymerase chain reaction of nasal secretions and procalcitonin on serum; the laboratory values were compared between the study groups. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed on the resulting data. Results: Compared to those with bacterial or mixed infections (n=62) and bacterial pneumonia with confirmed organisms (n=30), patients with 2009 H1N1 pneumonia (n=34) were significantly more likely to have low procalcitonin levels (p=0.008, 0.001). Using cutoff of value >0.3 ng/mL, the sensitivity and specificity of procalcitonin for detection of patients with confirmed bacterial pneumonia were 76.2% and 60.6%, respectively. A significant difference in procalcitonin was found between 2009 H1N1 pneumonia and pneumonia caused by mixed influenza viral and bacterial infections (0.15 [0.05~0.84] vs. 10.3 [0.05~22.87] ng/mL, p=0.045). Conclusion: Serum procalcitonin measurement may assist in the discrimination between pneumonia of bacterial and of 2009 H1N1 influenza origin. High values of procalcitonin suggest that bacterial infection or mixed infection of bacteria and 2009 H1N1 influenza is more likely.