• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.3-26
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• 1992

The pupose of this paper is to construct a price determination model of the Korean economy and to find out the propogation mechanism of monetary and fiscal policies. The model is a small-size macroeconometric model consisted of ten core equations : consumption, investment, exports, imports, consumer price index, wage rate, corporate bond rate, potential GNP, capital stock, and GNP identity. The model is a Keynesian model : consumer price index is determined by markup over costs, and wage rate is expressed by Phillipse curve ralation. Two features of the model, however, distinguish this model from other macroeconometric models of the Korean economy. First of all, the estimation of potential GNP and the capital stock is endogenized as suggested by Haque, Lahiri, and Montiel (1990). This allows us to calculate the level of excess demand, which is defined as the difference between the actual GNP and the potential GNP. Second, interest rate, inflation and wages are all estimated as endogenous variables. Moreover, all quantity variables include price variables as important determinants. For instance, interest rate is an important determinant of consumption and investment. Exports and imports are determined by the real effective exchange rate. These two features make the interactions between excess demand and prices the driving forces of this model. In the model, any shock which affects quantity variable(s) affects excess demand, which in turn affects prices. This strong interaction between prices and quantities makes the model look like a classical model over the long run. That is, increases in money supply, government expenditures, and exchange rate (the price of the U.S. dollar in terms of Korean won) all have expansionery effects on the real GNP in the short run, but prices, wage, and interest rate all increase as a result. Over the long run, higher prices have dampenning effects on output. Therefore the level of real GNP turns out to be not much different from the baseline level ; on the other hand, the rates of inflation, wage and interest rate remain at higher levels.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.32-44
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• 1987

This study was carried out to analyze and furecast the domestic demand for plywood in Korea by regression models with time-series data for 16 years(1970-85). The results obtained were summarized as follows. 1. To analyze domestic demand for plywood, GNP, PWI and CWI were used as independant variables. The domestic demand equation was computed as follows: $^{in}DDP$=0.65186+1.29412 $^{in}GNP$-0.28385 $^{in}PWI$-1.05011 $^{in}CWI$ Where DDP : Domestic demand for plywood(1000 S/F) GNP: Gross national product (Billion won) PWI : Real wholesale price index of plywood CWI: Real wholesale price index of construction materials. 2. Among independant variables reflecting on the production activity of plywood industry, GNP was the most decisive in forecasting the domestic demand for plywood. 3. The significance can be recognized highly because the decision coefficient of the forecasting model which is obtained by using time series data is 0.9. 4. According to the estimated regression coefficients for GNP, PWI and CWI, GNP shows positive relation while PWI and CWI show negative relation. 5. An annual average increase rate of demand for plywood was 9.4 percent during expect period. Therefore, it was decreased slightly than that of 10.2 percent during sample period.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.65 no.1
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• pp.80-91
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• 1984

The purposes of this study are to analyze and forecast the domestic demand for papers by regression models with time-series data (1965-81). For the period of 1965-81, the real GNP of Korea grew at annual average increase rate of 8.8 percent. On the other hand, the domestic demand of papers grew at annual average increase rate of 17.9 percent in this period. Especially, the annual average increase rate for board-papers accounted to 25.8 percent. To analyze domestic demand for papers, GNP, per capita GNP, price findex of papers, production activity index of the major papers consuming industries and price index of substitutive goods were selected as independent variables. The expected values of domestic demand for papers were computed by forecasting equations as follows. T-values are in parentheses. ${\ell}nDDP=2.452+1.986{\ell}nPG-0.844{\ell}nPWI$ $(33.397)^*\;(-6.149)^*\;R^2=0.997$ ${\ell}nDDP=6.468+0.827{\ell}nPDA$ $(17.403)^*\;R^2=0.950$ DDP : Domestic demand for papers PG : Real GNP per capita (1,000 won) PWI : Real price index of papers (1980 = 100) PDAV : Production activity index of the major papers consuming industries The results analyzed and forecasted by these models are summarized as follows: The domestic demand for papers had positive correlation toward per capita GNP and production activity index of the major papers consuming industries. Per capita GNP elasticity of the domestic demand for papers was the most elastic among independent variables. The price elasticity of domestic demand for papers had negative sign and inelastic. These were not only statistically significant but theoretically compatible. The domestic demand for papers was projected to be 3,152-4,470 thousand mit in 1991, representing at annual increase rate of 5.0-12.4 percent during the period of 1982-91. Domestic demand for papers per capita was projected to be 69.1-98.0 kg in 1991.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.37-60
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• 1992

This paper applies a Structural VAR approach to a 4 variable system in real GNP, M2, GNP deflator and nominal monthly earnings, disentangling 4 structural shocks, i.e., aggregate demand and supply shocks, wage pushes and various forms of regulations reinforced especially during stabilization process. Preliminary diagnostic tests confirm that the log level of each time series has at least one unit root, though the evidence is somewhat ambiguous for real GNP. One co-integration relationship is found among 4 variables, while no co-integration is found in a subsystem consisting of nomina) variables. The absence of co-integration among nominal variables strongly suggested that money is not neutral even in the long-run. The reduced form is estimated and the structural form is recovered using 6 additional identifying restrictions. Recovered structural shocks are able to capture main episodes of past 20 years, ranging from first and second oil shocks, to strong stabilization policy of early 80's and rapid wage hikes of late 80's. Overall responses of the economy to each structural shock are usually consistent with the standard Keynesian predictions, though some responses seem to be specific to Korean economic environment.

• The Journal of Korean Academic Society of Nursing Education
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.97-105
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• 1999

Based on literature, status and role of the NP in America was reviewed. The process of developing NP program in America suggests us many things. In America, nurse practitioners have sustained a mutually beneficial status with their patients for over thirty years. Excel fence in academic education and clinical training will enable nurse practitioners to continue to provide quality health care. The magnitude changes in the health care system of the United States, the challange of providing real access of health care continues. Lack of access to adequate primary care was the driving force in the initial 1965 Federal Involvement in developing the NP role. In 1993 President Bill Clinton's health care reform initiative provided policy support for NPs as primary care providers. The Institute of Medicine explicitly recognized NPs as an integral part of the primary care team. In addition, several national reports recognized NPs as affordable, accessible, high-quality care providers. The recent passage of direct Medicare reimbursement for NPs reflected public policy statements coincided with and likely contributed to a growth spurt in the NP workforce. From 1965 to 1977 NP programs offered traditional primary care clinical tracks(adult, family, woman's health, and pediatrics) for relatively small clusters of students in a variety of institutional settings. From 1978 to 1990 these educational programs were incorporated into graduate schools of nursing. By 1990 the majority of NPs received educational preparation in master's-level nursing programs. A new emphases was placed on postmaster's NP programs designed for master's prepared clinical nurse specialists and nurse managers. he the health care system shifted hospital nursing resources toward community-based care, these master's -level nurses sought additional NP preparation. NP educational programs are defined as the educational structure in which one or more NP clinical tracks are offered. NP clinical tracks, in turn, offer curriculum and supervised clinical experiences that match standards in specific practice areas such as family(FNP), adult(AUP), geriatrics(GNP), pediatrics(PNP), women's health (WHNP), neonatal (NNP), and acute care(ACNP). There were indications that NP practice was expanding into new clinical areas as evidenced by new types of tracks, particularly in acute care and psychiatry. The increase in acute care NP students likely reflects the increased demand from hospitals and other acute care settings. In Korea, change of nurse's role into nurse practitioner's role may have many difficulties. The need of health consumer, policy support of government, approval of medical care team are all essential component. Every nursing personnel make effort to planning the new health care delivery system.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.3-19
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• 1991

This paper attempts to identify key determinants of long run movements of real M2 by using the Johansen procedure for estimating and testing cointegration relations. It turns out that the real M2 equation has been stable over the long run despite rapid changes in financial structure since 1975. Moreover, the real M2 equation can be reduced to a velocity equation with the opportunity cost variable, expected inflation less the weighted average rate paid on M2 deposits, being the key determinant. However, it does not work to use a market interest rate such as the yield on corporate bonds in place of expected inflation for calculation of the opportunity cost. In the U.S., a market interest rate can be used, but not in Korea. Presumably, two somewhat different reasonings can be used to explain this result. One is that the yield on corporate bonds may not adequately reflect the inflationary expectations due to regulations on movements in interest rates. The other is that M2 deposits are not readily substitutable with such assets as corporate bonds because of market segmentations, regulations, and so on. From the policymaker's point of view, this implies that the inflation rate is an important indicator of a policy response. On the other hand, policymakers do not regard movements of the yield on corporate bonds as an important policy indicator. Altogether, the role of interest rates has been quite limited in Korea because of incomplete interest rate liberalization, an underdeveloped financial system, implementation procedures of policy measures, and so on. The result that M2 velocity has a positive cointegration relation with expected inflation minus the average rate on M2 implies that frequent adjustments of the regulated rates on M2 will be necessary as market conditions change. As the expected inflation gets higher, M2 velocity will eventually increase, given that the rates on M2 do not change. This will cause higher inflation. If interest rates are liberalized, then increases in market interest rates will result in lagged increases in deposits rates on M2. However, in Korea a substantial portion of deposit rates are regulated and will not change without the authority's initiatives. A tight monetary policy will cause increases in a few market interest rates. But the market mechanism, upward pressure for interest rate adjustments, never reaches regulated deposit rates. Hence the overall effects of tight monetary policy diminish considerably, only causing distortions in the flow of funds. Therefore, frequent adjustments of deposit rates are necessary as market conditions such as inflationary expectations change. Then it becomes important for the policymaker to actively engage in adjusting regulated deposit rates, because the financial sector in Korea is not fully developed.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.233-265
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• 1996

We examine the impact of public and private information on price movements using the thirty DJIA stocks and twenty-one NASDAQ stocks. We find that the standard deviation of daily returns on information days (dividend announcement, earnings announcement, insider purchase, or insider sale) is much higher than on no-information days. Both public information matters at the NYSE, probably due to masked identification of insiders. Earnings announcement has the greatest impact for both DJIA and NASDAQ stocks, and there is some evidence of positive impact of insider asle on return volatility of NASDAQ stocks. There has been considerable debate, e.g., French and Roll (1986), over whether market volatility is due to public information or private information-the latter gathered through costly search and only revealed through trading. Public information is composed of (1) marketwide public information such as regularly scheduled federal economic announcements (e.g., employment, GNP, leading indicators) and (2) company-specific public information such as dividend and earnings announcements. Policy makers and corporate insiders have a better access to marketwide private information (e.g., a new monetary policy decision made in the Federal Reserve Board meeting) and company-specific private information, respectively, compated to the general public. Ederington and Lee (1993) show that marketwide public information accounts for most of the observed volatility patterns in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets. Company-specific public information is explored by Patell and Wolfson (1984) and Jennings and Starks (1985). They show that dividend and earnings announcements induce higher than normal volatility in equity prices. Kyle (1985), Admati and Pfleiderer (1988), Barclay, Litzenberger and Warner (1990), Foster and Viswanathan (1990), Back (1992), and Barclay and Warner (1993) show that the private information help by informed traders and revealed through trading influences market volatility. Cornell and Sirri (1992)' and Meulbroek (1992) investigate the actual insider trading activities in a tender offer case and the prosecuted illegal trading cased, respectively. This paper examines the aggregate and individual impact of marketwide information, company-specific public information, and company-specific private information on equity prices. Specifically, we use the thirty common stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and twenty one National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) common stocks to examine how their prices react to information. Marketwide information (public and private) is estimated by the movement in the Standard and Poors (S & P) 500 Index price for the DJIA stocks and the movement in the NASDAQ Composite Index price for the NASDAQ stocks. Divedend and earnings announcements are used as a subset of company-specific public information. The trading activity of corporate insiders (major corporate officers, members of the board of directors, and owners of at least 10 percent of any equity class) with an access to private information can be cannot legally trade on private information. Therefore, most insider transactions are not necessarily based on private information. Nevertheless, we hypothesize that market participants observe how insiders trade in order to infer any information that they cannot possess because insiders tend to buy (sell) when they have good (bad) information about their company. For example, Damodaran and Liu (1993) show that insiders of real estate investment trusts buy (sell) after they receive favorable (unfavorable) appraisal news before the information in these appraisals is released to the public. Price discovery in a competitive multiple-dealership market (NASDAQ) would be different from that in a monopolistic specialist system (NYSE). Consequently, we hypothesize that NASDAQ stocks are affected more by private information (or more precisely, insider trading) than the DJIA stocks. In the next section, we describe our choices of the fifty-one stocks and the public and private information set. We also discuss institutional differences between the NYSE and the NASDAQ market. In Section II, we examine the implications of public and private information for the volatility of daily returns of each stock. In Section III, we turn to the question of the relative importance of individual elements of our information set. Further analysis of the five DJIA stocks and the four NASDAQ stocks that are most sensitive to earnings announcements is given in Section IV, and our results are summarized in Section V.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.4-14
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• 1974

The total forest land area in Korea accounts for some 67 percent of the nation's land total. Its productivity, however, is very low. Consequently, forest production accounts for only about 2 percent of the gross national product and a minor proportion of no more than about 5 percent versus primary industry. In this case, however, only the direct income from forestry is taken into account, making no reference to the forestry output induced by other industrial sectors. The value added Or the induced forestry output in manufacturing the primary wood products into higher quality products, makes a larger contribution to the economy than direct contribution. So, this author has tried to analyze the structure of forestry and compute the repercussion effect and the induced output of primary forest products when utilized by other industries for their raw materials, Hsing the input-output table and attached tables for 1963 and 1966 issued by the Bank of Korea. 1. Analysis of forestry structure A. Changes in total output Durng the nine-year period, 1961-1969, the real gross national product in Korea increased 2.1 times, while that of primary industries went up about 1. 4 times. Forestry which was valued at 9,380 million won in 1961, was picked up about 2. 1 times to 20, 120 million won in 1969. The rate of the forestry income in the GNP, accordingly, was no more than 1.5 percent both in 1961 and 1962, whereas its rate in primary industries increased 3.5 to 5.4 percent. Such increase in forestry income is attributable to increased forest production and rise in timber prices. The rate of forestry income, nonetheless, was on the decrease on a gradual basis. B. Changes in input coefficient The input coefficient which indicates the inputs of the forest products into other sectors were up in general in 1966 over 1963. It is noted that the input coefficient indicating the amount of forest products supplied to such industries closely related with forestry as lumber and plywood, and wood products and furniture, showed a downward trend for the period 1963-1966. On the other hand, the forest input into other sectors was generally on the increase. Meanwhile, the input coefficient representing the yolume of the forest products supplied to the forestry sector itself showed an upward tendency, which meant more and more decrease in input from other sectors. Generally speaking, in direct proportion to the higher input coefficient in any industrial sector, the reinput coefficient which denotes the use of its products by the same sector becomes higher and higher. C. Changes in ratio of intermediate input The intermediate input ratio showing the dependency on raw materials went up to 15.43 percent m 1966 from 11. 37 percent in 1963. The dependency of forestry on raw materials was no more than 15.43 percent, accounting for a high 83.57 percent of value added. If the intermediate input ratio increases in any given sector, the input coefficient which represents the fe-use of its products by the same sector becomes large. D. Changes in the ratio of intermediate demand The ratio of the intermediate demand represents the characteristics of the intermediary production in each industry, the intermediate demand ratio in forestry which accunted for 69.7 percent in 1963 went up to 75.2 percent in 1966. In other words, forestry is a remarkable industry in that there is characteristics of the intermediary production. E. Changes in import coefficient The import coefficient which denotes the relation between the production activities and imports, recorded at 4.4 percent in 1963, decreased to 2.4 percent in 1966. The ratio of import to total output is not so high. F. Changes in market composition of imported goods One of the major imported goods in the forestry sector is lumber. The import value increased by 60 percent to 667 million won in 1966 from 407 million won in 1963. The sales of imported forest products to two major outlets-lumber and plywood, and wood products and furniture-increased to 343 million won and 31 million won in 1966 from 240million won and 30 million won in 1963 respectively. On the other hand, imported goods valued at 66 million won were sold to the paper products sector in 1963; however, no supply to this sector was recorded in 1963. Besides these major markets, primary industries such as the fishery, coal and agriculture sectors purchase materials from forestry. 2. Analysis of repercussion effect on production The repercussion effect of final demand in any given sector upon the expansion of the production of other sectors was analyzed, using the inverse matrix coefficient tables attached to the the I.O. Table. A. Changes in intra-sector transaction value of inverse matrix coefficient. The intra-sector transaction value of an inverse matrix coefficient represents the extent of an induced increase in the production of self-support products of the same sector, when it is generated directly and indirectly by one unit of final demand in any given sector. The intra-sector transaction value of the forestry sector rose from 1.04 in 1963 to 1, 11 in 1966. It may well be said, therefore, that forestry induces much more self-supporting products in the production of one unit of final demand for forest products. B. Changes in column total of inverse matrix coefficient It should be noted that the column total indicates the degree of effect of the output of the corresponding and related sectors generated by one unit of final demand in each sector. No changes in the column total of the forestry sector were recorded between the 1963 and 1966 figures, both being the same 1. 19. C. Changes in difference between column total and intra-sector transaction amount. The difference between the column total and intra-sector transaction amount by sector reveals the extent of effect of output of related industrial sector induced indirectly by one unit of final demand in corresponding sector. This change in forestry dropped remarkable to 0.08 in 1966 from 0.15 in 1963. Accordingly, the effect of inducement of indirect output of other forestry-related sectors has decreased; this is a really natural phenomenon, as compared with an increasing input coefficient generated by the re-use of forest products by the forestry sector. 3. Induced output of forestry A. Forest products, wood in particular, are supplied to other industries as their raw materials, increasng their value added. In this connection the primary dependency rate on forestry for 1963 and 1966 was compared, i. e., an increase or decrease in each sector, from 7.71 percent in 1963 to 11.91 percent in 1966 in agriculture, 10.32 to 6.11 in fishery, 16.24 to 19.90 in mining, 0.76 to 0.70 in the manufacturing sector and 2.79 to 4.77 percent in the construction sector. Generally speaking, on the average the dependency on forestry during the period 1963-1966 increased from 5.92 percent to 8.03 percent. Accordingly, it may easily be known that the primary forestry output induced by primary and secondary industries increased from 16, 109 million won in 1963 to 48, 842 million won in 1966. B. The forest products are supplied to other industries as their raw materials. The products are processed further into higher quality products. thus indirectly increasing the value of the forest products. The ratio of the increased value added or the secondary dependency on forestry for 1963 and 1966 showed an increase or decrease, from 5.98 percent to 7.87 percent in agriculture, 9.06 to 5.74 in fishery, 13.56 to 15.81 in mining, 0.68 to 0.61 in the manufacturing sector and 2.71 to 4.54 in the construction sector. The average ratio in this connection increased from 4.69 percent to 5.60 percent. In the meantime, the secondary forestry output induced by primary and secondary industries rose from 12,779 million Wall in 1963 to 34,084 million won in 1966. C. The dependency of tertiary industries on forestry showed very minor ratios of 0.46 percent and 0.04 percent in 1963 and 1966 respectively. The forestry output induced by tertiary industry also decreased from 685 million won to 123 million won during the same period. D. Generally speaking, the ratio of dependency on forestry increased from 17.68 percent in 1963 to 24.28 percent in 1966 in primary industries, from 4.69 percent to 5.70 percent in secondary industries, while, as mentioned above, the ratio in the case of tertiary industry decreased from 0.46 to 0.04 percent during the period 1963-66. The mining industry reveals the heaviest rate of dependency on forestry with 29.80 percent in 1963 and 35.71 percent in 1966. As it result, the direct forestry income, valued at 8,172 million won in 1963, shot up to 22,724 million won in 1966. Its composition ratio lo the national income rose from 1.9 percent in 1963 to 2.3 per cent in 1966. If the induced outcome is taken into account, the total forestry production which was estimated at 37,744 million won in 1963 picked up to 105,773 million won in 1966, about 4.5 times its direct income. It is further noted that the ratio of the gross forestry product to the gross national product. rose significantly from 8.8 percent in 1963 to 10.7 percent in 1966. E. In computing the above mentioned ratio not taken into consideration were such intangible, indirect effects as the drought and flood prevention, check of soil run-off, watershed and land conservation, improvement of the people's recreational and emotional living, and maintenance and increase in the national health and sanitation. F. In conclusion, I would like to emphasize that the forestry sector exercices an important effect upon the national economy and that the effect of induced forestry output is greater than its direct income.