• Title/Summary/Keyword: rainfall trend

Search Result 237, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Rainfall Frequency Analysis Considering Change of Trend Slope in Observed Rainfall Intensity (관측강우강도의 경향성 기울기 변화를 고려한 강우빈도 해석)

  • Jang, Sun-Woo;Seo, Lynn;Choi, Min-Ha;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2011.05a
    • /
    • pp.26-30
    • /
    • 2011
  • 최근 기후변화에 따라 강우의 패턴이 변화하고 있다. 강우일수는 줄어드는 반면, 강우강도는 증가하여, 홍수로 인한 많은 피해에 직면하고 있다. 이러한 기상이변은 홍수방어시스템을 위한 수공구조물에도 많은 영향을 미친다. 수공구조물을 설계할 때, 일반적으로 강우 기록들의 통계적 특성이 정상성을 가진다고 가정한다. 하지만 최근의 강우 자료를 분석하면, 시간에 따라 평균, 분산, 왜곡도와 같은 기본 통계량이 변화하는 것을 알 수 있다. 따라서, 수공구조물의 설계를 위한 확률 강우량은 이러한 기후변화에 따른 자료의 특성을 반영할 필요가 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 강우 자료의 비정상성의 특성을 이용하여 확률강우량을 산정하는 것이다. 최근 비정상성 강우빈도해석에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있는데, 이들 연구는 대부분 목표연도까지 경향성의 기울기가 증가, 또는 일정하다고 가정한다. 하지만, 현재는 경향성이 있지만, 목표연도에는 경향성이 없을 경우도 있고, 또는 경향성이 있어도 그 기울기가 적어지는 경향을 보일 수도 있다. 본 연구에서는 현시점과 목표연도의 시점에 대한 경향성 기울기의 변화를 고려하여 비정상성 강우빈도해석을 수행하였다. 대상지점 선정은 통계적 경향성 검정, Mann-Kendall test를 이용하여 1994년(현재시점)에 경향성이 있다고 판단되는 관측지점을 대상지점으로 선정하였다. 분석 방법은 24시간 임계지속시간의 연최대강우자료를 구축하였다. 자료를 현시점까지 선형회귀식을 이용하여 잔차 계열을 산정하고, Gumbel 분포를 이용하여 확률 잔차를 산정하였다. 확률강우량을 추정하기 위해 추세요소를 산정하였다. 기울기의 증가 혹은 감소 경향을 회귀모형을 이용하여 추세요소를 산정하였고, 잔차의 확률빈도와 추세요소의 합으로 비정상상 확률강우량을 산정하였다.

  • PDF

Characteristics of Particle Size Distribution and Heavy Metal Concentration in Pavement Road Runoff (포장지역 강우유출수에서의 입자성물질의 입도 분포 및 중금속 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Hai-Mi;Kim, Young-Jun;Ko, Seok-Oh
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.11 no.3
    • /
    • pp.141-149
    • /
    • 2009
  • Objective of this study was to characterize the particle size distribution(PSD) and quantify the pollutant concentration in highway runoff. Runoff samples during two rainfall events at four road sites in Gyunggi-Do were collected and PSD and associated pollutant distribution was quantified. Also, rainfall amount, flow rate, and other pollutants in samples were analyzed. PSDs in each sample were analyzed and compared with temporal trends of other pollutants. High partial event mean concentrations(PEMC) of particulates were observed at the beginning of runoff and rapid decrease thereafter. Other pollution parameters such as turbidity, TSS, BOD, TN, and TP also have similar temporal runoff trend with the PEMC. Especially PEMC was well correlated with total suspended solids(TSS) and turbidity. Cu, Pb, Zn had high concentration both runoff and sediment. Heavy metals in sediment were strongly bound to fine particles that have the large surface area-to-volume ratios.

  • PDF

Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics on Bias Correction Method of Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오 편의보정 기법에 따른 강우-유출 특성 분석)

  • Kum, Donghyuk;Park, Younsik;Jung, Young Hun;Shin, Min Hwan;Ryu, Jichul;Park, Ji Hyung;Yang, Jae E;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
    • /
    • v.31 no.3
    • /
    • pp.241-252
    • /
    • 2015
  • Runoff behaviors by five bias correction methods were analyzed, which were Change Factor methods using past observed and estimated data by the estimation scenario with average annual calibration factor (CF_Y) or with average monthly calibration factor (CF_M), Quantile Mapping methods using past observed and estimated data considering cumulative distribution function for entire estimated data period (QM_E) or for dry and rainy season (QM_P), and Integrated method of CF_M+QM_E(CQ). The peak flow by CF_M and QM_P were twice as large as the measured peak flow, it was concluded that QM_P method has large uncertainty in monthly runoff estimation since the maximum precipitation by QM_P provided much difference to the other methods. The CQ method provided the precipitation amount, distribution, and frequency of the smallest differences to the observed data, compared to the other four methods. And the CQ method provided the rainfall-runoff behavior corresponding to the carbon dioxide emission scenario of SRES A1B. Climate change scenario with bias correction still contained uncertainty in accurate climate data generation. Therefore it is required to consider the trend of observed precipitation and the characteristics of bias correction methods so that the generated precipitation can be used properly in water resource management plan establishment.

An Analysis of the Effect of Barrier Discharge on the Topographic Change of Nak-dong River Estuary (낙동강 하구둑 방류량이 하구지역 지형 변화에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Tae-Uk Gong;Sung-Bo Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.163-173
    • /
    • 2023
  • In this study, topographic change analysis was performed on the Nak-dong River estuary area. The factors affecting the changes in the bathymetry of the Nak-dong River estuary were analyzed using data from the discharge, suspended sediments, and rainfall of the Nak-dong River barrier as analysis data. As a result, erosion and sedimentation are judged to appear repeatedly due to complex effects such as discharge of the estuary barrier of the Nak-dong River and invasion of the open sea waves, and it is judged that there is no one-sided tendency. However, as a result of checking the data in the second half of 2020, it was possible to confirm a large amount of erosion, which is different from the past data. It is clear that this is a result beyond the trend of erosion in the first half and sedimentation in the second half. In the summer of 2020, the rainy season lasted for more than a month and torrential rains occurred, which seems to be due to about three times higher rainfall than other periods, and erosion is believed to have occurred as the discharge increased rapidly compared to the time deposited by river water outflow. In addition, compared to other times, the influence of many typhoons in the summer of 2020 is believed to have affected the topographical change at the mouth of the Nak-dong River.

Comparative Analysis of Italian Ryegrass Vegetation Indices across Different Sowing Seasons Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (무인기를 이용한 이탈리안 라이그라스의 파종계절별 식생지수 비교)

  • Yang Seung Hak;Jung Jeong Sung;Choi Ki Choon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
    • /
    • v.43 no.2
    • /
    • pp.103-108
    • /
    • 2023
  • Due to the recent impact of global warming, heavy rainfall and droughts have been occurring regardless of the season, affecting the growth of Italian ryegrass (IRG), a winter forage crop. Particularly, delayed sowing due to frequent heavy rainfall or autumn droughts leads to poor growth and reduced winter survival rates. Therefore, techniques to improve yield through additional sowing in spring have been implemented. In this study, the growth of IRG sown in Spring and Autumn was compared and analyzed using vegetation indices during the months of April and May. Spectral data was collected using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) equipped with a hyperspectral sensor, and the following vegetation indices were utilized: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI, Normalized Difference Red Edge Index; NDRE (I), Chlorophyll Index, Red Green Ratio Index; RGRI, Enhanced Vegetation Index; EVI and Carotenoid Reflectance Index 1; CRI1. Indices related to chlorophyll concentration exhibited similar trends. RGRI of IRG sown in autumn increased during the experimental period, while IRG sown in spring showed a decreasing trend. The results of RGRI in IRG indicated differences in optical characteristics by sowing seasons compared to the other vegetation indices. Our findings showed that the timing of sowing influences the optical growth characteristics of crops by the results of various vegetation indices presented in this study. Further research, including the development of optimal vegetation indices related to IRG growth, is necessary in the future.

Assessment of Drought Severity over South Korea using Standardized Precipitation Evapo-transpiration Index (SPEI) (표준강수 증발산지수(SPEI)를 이용한 남한지역의 가뭄심도 평가)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Sung, Jang-Hyun;Kang, Hyun-Suk;Cho, Chun-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.45 no.9
    • /
    • pp.887-900
    • /
    • 2012
  • Drought is a non-negligible disaster of nature and it is mainly caused by rainfall shortage for a long time though there are many definitions of drought. 'Standard Precipitation Index' (SPI) that is widely used to express the level of meteorological drought intensity has a limit of not being able to consider the hydrological changes such as rainfall and evapotranspiration caused by climate change, because it does not consider the temperature-related variables other than the precipitation. Recently, however, 'Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index' (SPEI), a drought index of new concept which is similar to SPI but can reflect the effect of temperature variability as well as the rainfall change caused by climate variation, was developed. In this study, the changes of drought occurrence in South Korea were analyzed by applying SPEI for meteorological data (1973~2011) of 60 climate observatories under Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). As the result of application, both of SPI and SPEI showed the trend of deepening drought in spring and winter and mitigating drought in summer for the entire nation, with SPI showing greater drought intensity than SPI. Also, SPI and SPEI with 12 months of duration showed that severe droughts with low frequency of around 6 years are generally being repeated.

Long-term Runoff Simulation Considering Water for Agricultural Use in Geum River Basin (농업용수 이용량을 고려한 금강유역 장기유출모의)

  • Woo, Dong-Hyeon;Lee, Sang-Jin;Kim, Joo-Cheol;An, Jung-Min
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.43 no.3
    • /
    • pp.349-355
    • /
    • 2010
  • This study aims at the augmentation of reliability of the long-term rainfall runoff model. To do so agricultural water uses are evaluated by analyzing the effects of small scale irrigational hydraulic structures on long term runoff processes and thereby rainfall-runoff model is modified considering them. As a result the simulation results of the sub-basins having more agricultural reservoirs than the others are disagreed with the observations. The 2nd quarter simulation results show similar trend to it. Especially the farming seasonal results of the drought year as the year of 2008 have many negative discharge values due to the lack of agricultural water uses. This result come from the water uses input data corresponding to not real water uses but water demands. In this study the formulas are derived to estimate the discharges and return ratios and the long term rainfall-runoff model is reformulated based on these. It is confirmed that the errors of the simulation results could be reduced by considering the effects of small scale irrigational hydraulic structures and the reliability of the simulation results improved greatly.

Non-stationary Frequency Analysis with Climate Variability using Conditional Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (기후변동을 고려한 조건부 GEV 분포를 이용한 비정상성 빈도분석)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Lee, Jung-Ki;Kim, Hung-Soo;Lee, Jin-Won
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.499-514
    • /
    • 2011
  • An underlying assumption of traditional hydrologic frequency analysis is that climate, and hence the frequency of hydrologic events, is stationary, or unchanging over time. Under stationary conditions, the distribution of the variable of interest is invariant to temporal translation. Water resources infrastructure planning and design, such as dams, levees, canals, bridges, and culverts, relies on an understanding of past conditions and projection of future conditions. But, Water managers have always known our world is inherently non-stationary, and they routinely deal with this in management and planning. The aim of this paper is to give a brief introduction to non-stationary extreme value analysis methods. In this paper, a non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis approach is introduced in order to determine probability rainfall consider changing climate. The non-stationary statistical approach is based on the conditional Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation. This method are applied to the annual maximum 24 hours-rainfall. The results show that the non-stationary GEV approach is suitable for determining probability rainfall for changing climate, sucha sa trend, Moreover, Non-stationary frequency analyzed using SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) of ENSO(El Nino Southern Oscillation).

Hydrologic Analysis of the September 1990 Extreme Flood Occurred on the Chungju Dam Basin (충주(忠州)댐 유역(流域) 1990년(年) 9월(月) 대홍수(大洪水)의 수문학적(水文學的) 분석(分析))

  • Ko, Seok Ku;Lee, Hee Sung;Jeong, Dong Kug;Jung, Jae Sung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.12 no.4_1
    • /
    • pp.107-119
    • /
    • 1992
  • A heavy storm hit the central part of the Korean Peninsula especially on the Chungju Dam Basin from the 9th to 12th of September 1990. The Chungju multipurpose dam is the largest water project in Korea completed in 1986. The storm recorded a peak inflow of about $21,000m^3/sec$ at the dam site which is equivalent to 500 to 1000 years recurring frequency according to the designed concept. Extensive hydrological analyses including field investigation were performed to identify the storm. The result of the field investigation showed that 6 gages among the 22 telemetering rain-gages located in the basin were proved to be out-of-normal operation during the storm. The corrected basin average rainfall was estimated to be 458.6 mm ranging from 206 to 665 mm. The correction of the rainfall depth included the adjustment of the rainfall depths of the 6 gages using the Kriging interpolation technique, and adjustment according to the heights of the gage mouths. For the maintenance and operation of the Chungju Dam, new design floods were suggested from the trend analysis which showed that the design flood have to be increased because of the increasing tendency of the annual flood peaks.

  • PDF

The Impact of Monsoon Rainfall on the Water Quality in the Upstream Watershed of Southern Han River (하절기의 집중강우가 남한강 상류수계 수질에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Sung-Min;Shin, Yoon-Keun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.44 no.4
    • /
    • pp.373-384
    • /
    • 2011
  • The objective of this was to determine how the seasonal intensive rainfall influenced the water quality, and to analyze the long-term temporal trend of water chemistry and spatial heterogeneity in the upstream watershed of Southern Han River using water quality dataset from 1997 to 2007. The largest seasonal variability in most parameters occurred during the two month July and August and there were closely associated with a large spate of summer monsoon rain. Total phosphorus (TP), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and suspended solids (SS) were greater during summer than any other seasons, and had a direct correlation with precipitation (r>0.4, p<0.01, n-120). In addition, dissolved oxygen (DO) had and inverse function with precipitation (r=-0.542, p<0.01). Overall, the data of total phosphorus (TP) and suspended solids (SS) showed that water quality was worst in Site I1, compared to the others. This was due to continuous effluents from the highlands' fields and cattle farms within the upstream area of Doam lake (Song stream). Based on the overall dataset, an efficient water quality management is required in the highlands and farms areas for better water quality with precipitation (r.0.4, p<0.01, n=120).