• Title/Summary/Keyword: rainfall modeling

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Unveiling the mysteries of flood risk: A machine learning approach to understanding flood-influencing factors for accurate mapping

  • Roya Narimani;Shabbir Ahmed Osmani;Seunghyun Hwang;Changhyun Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.164-164
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    • 2023
  • This study investigates the importance of flood-influencing factors on the accuracy of flood risk mapping using the integration of remote sensing-based and machine learning techniques. Here, the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms integrated with GIS-based techniques were considered to develop and generate flood risk maps. For the study area of NAPA County in the United States, rainfall data from the 12 stations, Sentinel-1 SAR, and Sentinel-2 optical images were applied to extract 13 flood-influencing factors including altitude, aspect, slope, topographic wetness index, normalized difference vegetation index, stream power index, sediment transport index, land use/land cover, terrain roughness index, distance from the river, soil, rainfall, and geology. These 13 raster maps were used as input data for the XGBoost and RF algorithms for modeling flood-prone areas using ArcGIS, Python, and R. As results, it indicates that XGBoost showed better performance than RF in modeling flood-prone areas with an ROC of 97.45%, Kappa of 93.65%, and accuracy score of 96.83% compared to RF's 82.21%, 70.54%, and 88%, respectively. In conclusion, XGBoost is more efficient than RF for flood risk mapping and can be potentially utilized for flood mitigation strategies. It should be noted that all flood influencing factors had a positive effect, but altitude, slope, and rainfall were the most influential features in modeling flood risk maps using XGBoost.

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Analysis on Characteristics of Sediment Produce by Landslide in a Basin 2. Rainfall Event-based Analysis (유역 내에서의 산사태에 의한 토사발생특성 분석 2. 강우사상별 분석)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Kee-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.147-154
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    • 2010
  • This study analyzed the characteristics of sediment produce by landslide triggered by rainfall. One-dimensional unsaturated groundwater model and infinite slope stability analysis were used to estimate the behavior of soil moisture and slope stability according to rainfall, respectively. Slope stability analysis was performed considering on soil depth and characteristics of trees. The results of the analysis on characteristics of sediment produce according to rainfall events showed that the sediment produce by landslide was mainly contributed to rainfall intensity and its temporal clustering. The results of the analysis on characteristics of sediment produce by extreme events showed that remaining rainfall amount of typhoon 'Rusa' was much more than that of the other extreme events, and thus this remaining rainfall was to contribute to sediment transportation. Additionally, only a small number of extreme events were found to cause most amount of sediment produce in a basin.

Assessing Unit Hydrograph Parameters and Peak Runoff Responses from Storm Rainfall Events: A Case Study in Hancheon Basin of Jeju Island

  • Kar, Kanak Kanti;Yang, Sung-Kee;Lee, Jun-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.437-447
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    • 2015
  • Estimation of runoff peak is needed to assess water availability, in order to support the multifaceted water uses and functions, hence to underscore the modalities for efficient water utilization. The magnitude of storm rainfall acts as a primary input for basin level runoff computation. The rainfall-runoff linkage plays a pivotal role in water resource system management and feasibility level planning for resource distribution. Considering this importance, a case study has been carried out in the Hancheon basin of Jeju Island where distinctive hydrological characteristics are investigated for continuous storm rainfall and high permeable geological features. The study aims to estimate unit hydrograph parameters, peak runoff and peak time of storm rainfalls based on Clark unit hydrograph method. For analyzing observed runoff, five storm rainfall events were selected randomly from recent years' rainfall and HEC-hydrologic modeling system (HMS) model was used for rainfall-runoff data processing. The simulation results showed that the peak runoff varies from 164 to 548 m3/sec and peak time (onset) varies from 8 to 27 hours. A comprehensive relationship between Clark unit hydrograph parameters (time of concentration and storage coefficient) has also been derived in this study. The optimized values of the two parameters were verified by the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and runoff comparison performance were analyzed by root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) estimation. After statistical analysis of the Clark parameters significance level was found in 5% and runoff performances were found as 3.97 RMSE and 0.99 NSE, respectively. The calibration and validation results indicated strong coherence of unit hydrograph model responses to the actual situation of historical storm runoff events.

An Analysis of the Rainfall-Runoff of Natural Watershed Using the Hydraulic Routing Method (수리학적 추적 방법을 이용한 자연하천의 강우유출 해석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.7 s.156
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    • pp.555-564
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    • 2005
  • In this study, a simple rainfall-runoff model was proposed by using the hydraulic routing model that requires relatively few parameters. The parameters of this model were estimated by the watershed characteristics data, and were applied to the Soyang watershed and Ui stream watershed by using the kinematic wave for overland flow and dynamic wave routing for channel routing. In order to demonstrate validity, the proposed approach was compared to the HEC-1 model for the Soyang watershed. As the results of modeling have shown, the hydraulic model shows reasonable results similar to that of the HEC-1 model. This model also represents good results for the Ui stream watershed. Hence, even if this model is a simple rainfall-runoff model using general methodology, it is competitive to the natural watershed. However, it is still difficult to estimate the roughness coefficient and the catchment width, and therefore this model is in need of such supplements.

Calculation of Runoff in Flood Basin Using GIS (GIS를 활용한 홍수유역의 유출량 산정)

  • 이형석;김인호
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.143-153
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    • 2003
  • In order to investigate the effect of a pouring rain that it follows in the typhoon, the effect analysis with actual measurement data of rainfall outflow it follows in flood basin is necessary. Also there is a case that it analyzes with the fact that the rainfall occurs identically in whole basin in case of the rainfall outflow analysis, but the actual rainfall distribution from the basin very will be irregular and the interpretation which it reflects must become accomplished. It created spatial information of terrain, land use and the soil using GIS. It created topographical factor of the subject area and calculated CN(runoff curve number) with WMS(Watershed Modeling System). It calculated runoff using a HEC-1 model and the Rational Method connected at the WMS. By connecting GIS and WMS, it calculated the effect of a pouring rain and runoff from the construction area. Also it will be able to apply with a basic data in more efficient runoff analysis.

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Development of Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Modelling System Integrated with GIS (지리정보시스템과 통합된 분포형 강우-유출 모의 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Yun-Seok;Kim, Kyung-Tak;Shim, Myung-Pil
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.76-87
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    • 2009
  • Most distributed models have been developed for data interchange between model for hydrological analysis and GIS(Geographic Information System). And some interface systems between them have been developed to operate the model conveniently. This study is about developing integrated system between model and GIS not coupled system based on file interchange or interface system. In this study, HyGIS-GRM which is integrated system between GRM(Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model) which is physically based distributed rainfall-runoff model and HyGIS(Hydro Geographic Information System) have been developed. HyGIS-GRM can carry out all the processes from preparing input data to appling them to model in the same system, and this operation environment can improve the efficiency of running the model and analyzing modeling results. HyGIS-GRM can provide objective modeling environment through establishing the process of integrated operation of GIS and distributed model, and we can obtain fundamental technologies for developing integrated system between GIS and water resources model.

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Introduction plan of future integrated water circulation management system using LID facility model verification (LID시설 모델검증을 활용한 미래형 통합 물순환관리시스템 도입방안)

  • Lee, Jiwon;Gil, Kyungik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2021
  • As the impermeable area increases due to urbanization and industrialization, the influence of non-point pollutants caused by rainfall runoff on the water system is increasing. In the past, the best management practices(BMP) were used a lot to manage non-point pollutants, but recently, technology that naturally treats them through LID (Low Impact Development) technology is widely used. In this study, various rainfall events were simulated through the SWMM model based on the data of rainfall monitoring in bioretention among natural facilities. The characteristic of LID modeling research is that it is difficult to build accurate modeling data with short-term data because real data is the result obtained through natural facilities, and it is difficult to implement an accurate model. In this study, the data monitored for 3 years It is significant in that it has built a precise model. The actual data monitored a total of 18 times was simulated, and the inflow and outflow and the removal efficiency of five pollutants were simulated. As a result of performing the performance evaluation, most of the 7 items showed excellent indicators, and the TN and TP showed relatively low simulation performance. In the future, it is expected that Korea will introduce an integrated water management system in which the water supply system and the sewage system are substantially integrated and operated. Therefore, the results of this study are considered to play an important role in the initial stage of rainfall management in the future integrated water management system, and the extent of rainfall runoff reduction and pollutant reduction in the expected installation area can be predicted in advance. This is expected to prevent overdesign of bioretention.

Estimation of Pollutant Load to Yongdam Reservoir Considering Rainfall Effect (강우의 영향을 고려한 용담호 유입오염부하량 산정)

  • Lee, Eun-Hyong;Seo, Dong-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.521-531
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    • 2003
  • Pollutant load to Yongdam Reservoir considering rainfall effect is estimated using data collected during dry and wet days between Dec 1998 and Oct. 1999. Limit of significant rainfall was assumed to be as 10 mm/day and numbers of days of significant rainfall for each month were counted using 10 years of meteorological data of the study area. Water quality input concentrations were estimated by taking weighted averages of concentrations in dry and wet days in each month. The resulting concentrations were used as inputs for water quality modeling of Yongdam Reservoir. When rainfall effect was included average reservoir concentrations of BOD, TN and TP were increased by 70%, 5% and 27%, respectively Considering the fact that Korea is under the significant influence of monsoon effect during the summer, it should be important to include rainfall effect in estimating pollutant input to receiving waters. This method is expected to increase reliability of annual water quality modeling results by providing realistic input data.

A study on the adsorption characteristic and safety assessment of railway subsoil material (철도 노반 재료의 중금속 흡착특성과 안전성에 관한 연구)

  • Paek, Seoungbong;Gil, Kyungik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.146-154
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    • 2015
  • Domestic railway industry has grown in numbers, scale of railway ndustrial and operation because was focused on an environmentally sustainable transportation. However, it is not enough to treat and prevent heavy metals which occur as the railway operation increases. The heavy metals occurred when the operating railway and it will be flow into water system with rainfall effluent during rainfall. will flow out along with the rainfall effluent when rainfall comes. In case of a railway bridge, In particular, heavy metals were flow into the water system without any treatment from railway bridges where located nearby rivers and lakes. So, rainfall effluent from railway facilities was occurred pollution of water system. For the prevent of heavy metal runoff during rainfall, the adsorptivity of material in railway roadbed is important.In this study, adsorptivity of gravel which is main gravel and blast-furnace slag were conducted adsorption test and deducted Freundlich's and Langmuir's isothermal adsorption equations. Safety as railway subbase course material was evaluated using modeling. As a result, absorption amount of slag, Cd and Cu, was shown higher than gravel and Pb along with Zn showed higher absorption amount of gravel. However, absorption amount of slag was shown higher than gravel used as railway subbase course material as time passes by. Absorption features had more suitable determination coefficient of heavy metals in warm absorption type such as Langnmuir compared to warm absorption type like Freundlich. To add, they showed less transformation by about 10% compared to gravel in safety evaluation through modeling. This is a railway subbase course material that prevents water outflow of heavy metal thus we can know slag is needed to be used.

Evaluation of conceptual rainfall-runoff models for different flow regimes and development of ensemble model (개념적 강우유출 모형의 유량구간별 적합성 평가 및 앙상블 모델 구축)

  • Yu, Jae-Ung;Park, Moon-Hyung;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.105-119
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    • 2021
  • An increase in the frequency and intensity of both floods and droughts has been recently observed due to an increase in climate variability. Especially, land-use change associated with industrial structure and urbanization has led to an imbalance between water supply and demand, acting as a constraint in water resource management. Accurate rainfall-runoff analysis plays a critical role in evaluating water availability in the water budget analysis. This study aimed to explore various continuous rainfall-runoff models over the Soyanggang dam watershed. Moreover, the ensemble modeling framework combining multiple models was introduced to present scenarios on streamflow considering uncertainties. In the ensemble modeling framework, rainfall-runoff models with fewer parameters are generally preferred for effective regionalization. In this study, more than 40 continuous rainfall-runoff models were applied to the Soyanggang dam watershed, and nine rainfall-runoff models were primarily selected using different goodness-of-fit measures. This study confirmed that the ensemble model showed better performance than the individual model over different flow regimes.