• 제목/요약/키워드: quantitative risk assessment

검색결과 510건 처리시간 0.029초

활주로시단이설에 따른 착륙대 위험발생빈도 변화 연구 (A Study on the Variation in the Risk Probability of Runway Strips due to the Runway Displaced Threshold)

  • 김도현;장효석
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2021
  • A runway safety area (RSA) is defined as the surface surrounding the runway prepared or suitable for reducing the risk of damage to airplanes in the event of an undershoot, overshoot, or excursion from the runway. The Runway Stripe is a defined area including the runway stopway, if provided, intended firstly to reduce the risk of damage to aircraft running off a runway, and secondly, to protect aircraft flying over it during takeoff or landing operations. This study used 2 RSA analysis models; RSARA and LRSARA. The analysis utilizes historical data from the specific airport and allows to take into consideration specific operational conditions to which movements are subject, as well as the actual or planned RSA conditions in terms of dimensions, configuration, and boundaries defined by existing obstacles. This study applied the RSA and LRSA risk assessment models to a domestic airport that do not meet the criteria required by standards for aerodrome physical characteristics. The airport is considering a method to secure the runway strip standard through the displaced threshold. This study intends to confirm through quantitative risk estimation whether meeting facility standards through the runway displaced threshold leads to a positive change in risk mitigation.

석면 해체 작업의 위험성평가모델 비교 분석 (A Comparative Analysis of Risk Assessment Models for Asbestos Demolition)

  • 김동규;김민승;이수민;김유진;한승우
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2022년도 가을 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.99-100
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    • 2022
  • As the danger of exposure to the asbestos has been revealed, the importance of demolition asbestos in existing buildings has been raised. Extensive body of study has been conducted to evaluate the risk of demolition asbestos, but there were confined types of variables caused by not reflecting categorical information and limitations in collecting quantitative information. Thus, this study aims to derive a model that predicts the risk in workplace of demolition asbestos by collecting categorical and continuous variables. For this purpose, categorical and continuous variables were collected from asbestos demolition reports, and the risk assessment score was set as the dependent variable. In this study, the influence of each variable was identified using logistic regression, and the risk prediction model methodologies were compared through decision tree regression and artificial neural network. As a result, a conditional risk prediction model was derived to evaluate the risk of demolition asbestos, and this model is expected to be used to ensure the safety of asbestos demolition workers.

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화재폭발지수 개선에 대한 사례 연구 (Case Study on Advanced Fire and Explosion Index)

  • 나건문;서재민;이미정;백종배
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제35권6호
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    • pp.78-84
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    • 2020
  • The F&EI technique is one of the risk assessments with many advantages. It can save time and effort compared to quantitative risk assessment (QRA). By using the evaluation result of this technique, it is possible to check the effectiveness of the investment cost. In addition, a relative risk ranking can be created and used to establish the facility management cycle and to prioritize investment. However, evaluating the target process can be evaluated more than the actual risk since the LCCF, a loss prevention measure, is too limited. In addition, calculating premiums via this method can result in excessive premiums, making it difficult to evaluate the risk precisely. Therefore, new safety guard was added to the LCCF of the F&EI risk assessment with reference to HAZOP and LOPA techniques. Newly added LCCFs are Deflagration arrester, Check valve, SIS, and Vacuum beaker, etc. As a case study, F&EI risk assessment was performed on Acetone storage tank of a API (Active pharmaceutical ingredient) plant to compare actual MPPD. The estimated loss amount was 592,558$ for the existing technique and 563,571$ for the improved technique, which was reduced by about 5% compared to the previous one.This proved that a more precise evaluation is possible and that the efforts for safety at the workplace are reflected in the evaluation results.

위험성 평가 기반의 U-도면정보 시스템에 관한 연구 (A Study on U-Drawing Information System Based on Risk Assessment)

  • 고재욱;유진환;이헌석
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제11권2호통권35호
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2007
  • 이 연구에서는 위험성 평가를 기반으로 한 U-도면정보 시스템을 제안하였다. 제안된 U-도면정보 시스템의 기술적 특징은 P&ID등 공정정보를 기본 자료로서 활용하는 정량적 위험성 평가를 도면상에서 직접 수행할 수 있는 구조로 구성되었다는 것이다. 따라서 기존의 방식으로 위험성 평가를 수행할 때 보다 효율적이고, 간편한 정보 검색을 할 수 있게 되었다. U-도면정보 시스템은 CAD file로 존재하는 모든 도면을 CAD S/W 없이 Web 기반 환경에서 쉽게 볼 수 있도록 설계하였다. 이는 플랫폼(U-단말기)을 이용하여 공정내 어디에서나 브로드밴드, IPv6로 접속이 가능하며, 센서 기능과 개인 인증기능 등을 통하여 항상 도면정보 시스템에 접속할 수 있도록 기존의 도면정보 시스템과 달리 Web 기반으로 시스템을 구성하였다. 이러한 결과는 기존의 단순한 해당 업무에 대한 검토가 아닌 위험도를 고려한 장치산업의 체계적 안전장치를 제공한다. 또한, 의사결정단계에서 공학 기술적 이론에 충실한 판단 근거들을 제시하였다

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건설 프로젝트의 재해영향요인 기반 위험성 평가방법 (A Risk Assessment Method using Disaster Influence Factors on Construction Project)

  • 유용신;최재욱;김태완;이찬식
    • 대한건축학회논문집:계획계
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    • 제35권6호
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    • pp.3-12
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    • 2019
  • Current risk assessment methods typically determine accident risks embedded in construction projects by combining severity and frequency; however, they do not reflect the characteristics of construction projects. To solve the problem, this study aims to develop a novel risk assessment method that combines severity, frequency, and disaster influence factors (i.e., weather conditions and worker's characteristics) for assessing risks of activities occurring on a construction site actually. In this study, a severity was estimated by death against victims, and a frequency was estimated by the victim rate. The frequency was then converted to probability taking disaster influence factors into account. Thus, instead of considering severity and frequency for assessing the original risks (RO), the proposed method uses severity and probability to yield adjusted risks (RA) for each activity. A case study was conducted to determine if the proposed method works as intended in a real setting. The results show that RA is more sensitive to disaster influence factors than RO and, therefore, is able to assess the actual risks reflecting the working environment and conditions of a construction site. This study contributes to risk management of construction projects by offering a risk assessment method that measures a possibility of potential disasters from the probabilistic perspective. This method would help project managers assess accident risks in a more systematic and quantitative manner.

위험도 평가를 통한 사고대비물질별 규정수량 고찰 (Consideration on the Regulated Quantity of Preparation for Accidents by Risk Assessment)

  • 안광재;김정욱;이근원;정승호
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • 제60권4호
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    • pp.506-511
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    • 2022
  • 화학물질관리법에서 장외영향평가서 및 위해관리계획서를 화학사고예방관리계획서로 일원화하는 제도가 시행되었다. 화학사고예방관리계획서에서 다루는 유해화학물질 중 사고대비물질은 화학사고의 발생 가능성이 높거나 화학사고가 발생한 경우에 그 피해 규모가 클 것으로 우려되는 화학물질로서 지정하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 사고대비물질별 규정수량 기준에 따른 위험도를 비교하고자 상위/하위 규정수량이 비슷한 화학물질을 특정하여 동일한 사고 시나리오를 선정하고 위험도 평가를 실시하였다. 연구대상물질은 암모니아, 염화수소, 이황화탄소, 벤젠 등 총 4종의 물질을 선정하였으며, DNV 사의 정량적 위험성 평가 프로그램인 Safeti 8.0을 활용하여 위험도를 비교 분석하였다. 그 결과, 비슷한 상위/하위규정수량임에도 불구하고 상대적으로 높은 위험도를 가지고 있는 물질을 확인할 수 있었다.

위험성평가를 이용한 노후설비에 대한 비용 편익분석 방법 (Cost-Benefit Analysis Method for Ageing Equipment of Chemical Plants Using Risk Assessment)

  • 정수민;정창모;강석민;채승빈;강승균;고재욱
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2020
  • 대부분의 화학공장 내 설비는 유해물질을 취급하거나, 일상적으로 접할 수 있는 온도 및 압력의 범위를 벗어난 환경에서 가동되며 이러한 응력 및 환경조건으로 인하여 노후화에 취약하다. 이러한 조건에 노출된 설비는 지속적인 손상이 누적되어 고장이 발생할 가능성이 높아짐은 물론, 정비 및 교체를 하지 않는다면 사고로 이어진다. 전세계적으로 위험성기반검사(Risk Based Inspection)라는 권고지침이 통용되고 있다. 하지만 RBI는 이미 일정시간 경과한 설비에 대해서는 한계가 존재한다. 적절한 점검을 수행하는 우리나라 울산 산업단지의 노후화 실태 조사 결과, 많은 수의 설비들이 사용기간이 20년을 경과하였다. 또한, 사고가 일어난 설비 대부분이 20년 이상 운영해 왔다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 일정 사용기간이 초과된 장치를 노후설비로 분류하는 기준을 제시하였다. 또한, 이에 대하여 정량적 위험성평가를 진행하였다. 이로 인해 도출된 해당 노후설비의 위험성을 Economic index로 표현하여 손실비용을 산정하고 Risk를 감소하기 위하여 비용편익 분석 방법을 활용한 안전투자 방법을 제안하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 정량적 위험성 평가를 이용한 노후설비의 비용편익 분석 방법을 활용하여 노후 설비의 성능 향상 및 수명 연장, 생산 효율성 및 설비 계통 신뢰도 향상, 안전관리 비용 인식 변화, 그리고 직원의 안정감 증대, 손실비용의 감소를 기대할 수 있다.

한국 남해안 대형선망어업의 생태계 위험도 분석에 의한 자원평가 연구 (Stock assessment by ecosystem risk analysis of large purse seine fishery in the southern sea of Korea)

  • 서영일;장창익;이재봉;차형기
    • 수산해양기술연구
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    • 제47권4호
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    • pp.369-389
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    • 2011
  • Changes in ecosystem risks were evaluated using the ecosystem-based fisheries assessment (EBFA) approach of Zhang et al. (2009, 2010) and the comprehensive ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) plan was made for the southern sea of Korea in this study. The risk assessment of the southern sea ecosystem was conducted by establishing ecosystem management objectives and by estimating risk scores (RS) for indicators. To conduct this analysis a number of indicators and their reference points for assessing these risk scores were developed in this study. The number of indicators in the risk analysis was 28 for the quantitative tier 1 analysis and 30 for the qualitative tier 2 analysis. The objective risk index (ORI), species risk index (SRI) and fisheries risk index (FRI) were calculated from the risk scores. Comparing the past (1988) and the current (2008) status of fisheries resources, management implications were discussed. The fishery risk index (FRI) of large purse seine fishery in the southern sea of Korea decreased substantially from 0.972 in 1988 to 0.883 in 2008, and improvement in the management of fisheries operated in the southern sea of Korea.

신도시 내 소각로 운영에 대한 건강영향평가 사례 연구 - 중금속 흡입에 따른 인체 위해도 평가 - (A Case Study on Health Impact Assessment from Incinerator Operation in New Towns - Human Risk Assessment due to Heavy Metals Inhalation -)

  • 명노일;이영수;신대윤
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.271-279
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    • 2010
  • We conducted a quantitative human health risk assessment with respect to inhalation of heavy metals for residents of housing developments in "new towns" where an incinerator will be operated within the area scheduled for construction thereof. To assess potential human health risk we calculated the amount of heavy metals emitted from the incinerator, and then forecasted the potential health impact on adjoining areas where new housing is to be developed (i.e. "new towns") at different altitudes by a using SCREEN-3 model. We assessed Cancer Risk (CR) caused by known carcinogens using the Inhalation Unit Risk criteria developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Notably, we assessed risk by determining concentrations of heavy metals on a floor by floor basis, as apartment buildings are to be constructed near the incinerator according to a pre-devised plan. Results indicated that cancer risk for most carcinogens exceeded US EPA standards for the highest locations at each collection point. This result indicates that construction of high buildings in areas adjoining incinerators is undesirable, and that measures to lower carcinogens are needed. The results of this study, which assessed health risk from exposure to heavy metals emitted from a nearby incinerator, can be useful in land use planning with respect to the location of housing developments in new towns, as well as the heights of any buildings constructed. Furthermore, the methodology deployed herein with respect to risk assessment can be helpful for policy makers and the general public in the event of conflicts regarding incinerator projects in the future. The results herein may also be of merit in determining priorities when establishing harm reduction measures for carcinogens at incinerators. However, the study does contain several limitations. The SCREEN-3 model, a kind of screening model that provides conservative results, can provide higher forecasted concentrations of air pollutants than other models. Moreover, although the incinerator in question is set to be a thermoselect type, domestic data for emissions from these incinerators is not available, and assumptions were based on a stoker type incinerator. Insufficient domestic data likewise compelled the use of data of USA, resulting in possible errors in results. Continued research will thus be required to develop systematic methodologies that address the foregoing factors and produce more reliable outcomes.

해저철도터널(목포-제주간) 화재시 정량적 위험도 평가기법에 의한 피난연결통로 적정간격산정에 관한 연구 (The study on interval calculation of cross passage in undersea tunnel by quantitative risk assesment method)

  • 유지오;김진수;이동호;신현준
    • 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.249-256
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    • 2015
  • 현재 목포-제주간 해저터널은 타당성 검토를 위한 기본계획 중에 있으며, 노선의 길이가 108 km인 고속여객 전용선으로 단면형태는 유로터널과 같은 서비스터널을 설치한 단선쌍굴터널로 검토되고 있다. 또한 교통량은 10량 1편성의 열차가 일일 76편/편도 운행하는 것으로 계획하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 터널의 피난연결통로의 적정 간격을 정량적 위험도 평가기법에 의해서 검토하는 것을 목표로 정량적 위험도 평가기법을 정립하였다. 또한 터널의 단면형태를 복선터널(Type 3), 쌍굴터널(Type 1) 및 복선터널을 격벽으로 분리하는 형태의 터널(Type 2)을 대상으로 단면형태별로 적정 피난연결통로 간격을 산정하였다. 본 연구결과, Type 2의 단면이 대피안전확보에 가장 효과적이며, 현행 국내 사회적 위험도 평가기준을 만족하기 위해서는 단면형태별로 350 m (Type 1), 400 m (Type 2), 1,500 m (Type 3)의 피난연결통로 간격이 요구되는 것으로 나타나고 있다.