• 제목/요약/키워드: quantitative risk assessment

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LPG 저장시설에 대한 위험성 평가에 관한 연구 (A Study for Risk Assessment of LPG Storage Facilities)

  • 박명섭;서재민;이정우;김기수;김성빈;고재욱;신동일
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 1999
  • 도시지역에 위치한 위해 시설 특히 가스에너지 관련 시설은 최근에 이르러 그 사고로 인해 막대한 재산 및 인명 피해를 동반하는 등 지역 주민에 위험 대상으로 등장했다. 이러한 가스에 관련된 사고의 영향을 예측하고 줄이기 위하여 위험성 평가를 이용한 종합적인 안전관리 시스템이 절대적으로 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 이런 상황들과 최근의 시대적 여건들을 고려하여 종합적인 정량적 위험성 평가 기반 구조를 구축하고 관련 모델들의 원만한 연관성을 갖게 하기 위한 개념 및 이론을 제시하였다 이를 위해 LPG시설의 사고 시나리오에 대한 위험성을 정량화 하여 LPG 저장시설에 대한 위험성을 평가할 수 있는 방안과 정량화 된 위험성을 표현하기 위하여 개인적 위험과 사회적 위험의 활용방안을 제시하였으며 이것들을 효율적으로 지원할 수 있는 지원 프로그램의 개발을 병행하였다.

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환경매체별 취약성을 반영한 장외영향평가 위험도 분석 (Risk Analysis of Off-site Risk Assessment using Vulnerability by Environmental Medium)

  • 최우수;백종배
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제33권5호
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2018
  • As the types and usage of chemical increase, modern countries should protect their health and environment from the risk of hazardous chemical. Chemical accidents not only affect humans but also cause huge losses to the environment. Moreover, since its effects do not end in a short period of time, it is necessary to identify the extent of the damage and establish a prevention and response system in advance. In 2015, the Chemical Substances Management Act provided a system for assessing the impact on the people and the environment around the workplace. However, it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate the impact on environmental factors such as vegetation and aquatic, with the current hazard assessment methods. The purpose of this study is to analyze the quantitative risk of environmental receptors. This study improved the existing risk assessment formula by using the environmental vulnerability index and established the end point concentration criterion which can estimate the damage range to environmental media. To verify the results of the study, a virtual accident scenario was selected and a case study was conducted. As a result, the extent of impact on the environmental medium can be calculated, and the degree of environmental risk of the zone can be quantified through the risk analysis considering the environmental vulnerability. This study is expected to increase the reliability of the reliability of the existing risk anaylsis method beacause it is a risk analysis method that can be applied when the environmental factors are absolutely necessary and when the residents and environment are complex.

지진 재해 위험도 평가 분석 도구 사례 분석 연구 (A Review and Analysis of Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment Tools and Applications)

  • 채수성;서동준
    • 디지털콘텐츠학회 논문지
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.899-906
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    • 2018
  • 재난피해 손실의 최소화를 위하여 관련 정보의 체계적인 구축과 피해를 정량적으로 분석하는 것은 재난 예방, 대응 복구 등의 재난관리 전 단계에 있어서 매우 중요하다. 우리나라를 비롯한 세계 각국에서는 해당 지역 또는 특정 환경에 적합한 인벤토리, 취약성 정보, 재해 위험지도 등의 정보 구축 연구뿐만 아니라 경제적 손실, 인명 손실, 건물 손상도 추정, 피난처 분석 등을 포함한 재해 피해 평가 및 분석 도구 개발에 많은 노력을 기울이고 있다. 본 논문은 지진 재해를 중심으로 대표적인 지진 피해 위험 분석 도구를 선정하고, 이를 비교 분석하였다. 이를 통해, 관련분야의 연구자들뿐만 아니라 재난 관리 의사 결정자 등에게 적합한 분석도구의 선정, 응용 소프트웨어의 개발 및 확장 등에 있어서 유용한 정보를 제공할 수 있을 것이다.

OECD 대량생산화학물질 위해성평가 및 대책 (Risk Assessment in OECD High Production Volume Chemicals Program and its Countermeasure)

  • 김명진;배희경;최연기;김미경;구현주;송상환;최광수
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제14권5호
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    • pp.347-353
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    • 2005
  • The risk assessment is the qualitative or quantitative evaluation of the risk posed to human health and the environment by the actual or potential presence or release of hazardous substances, pollutants or contaminants. The environmental impact assessment (EIA) is assessed by the environmental criteria, and risk assessment is assessed by the risk rate. Risk rate based on dose-response values may not be easy to apply on regulatory basis like EIA for uncertainty. Internationally there is an example of OECD program. Risk assessment of High Production Volume (HPV) Chemicals has started since the OECD Program with the 1990 Council Act on the Co-operative Investigation and Risk Reduction of Existing Chemicals. These HPV chemicals include all chemicals produced or imported at levels greater than 1,000 tonnes per year in at least one Member country or in the European Union region. The SIDS called the Screening Information Data Set is regarded as the minimum information needed to assess an HPV chemical to determine whether any further work should be carried out or not. All the data elements of SIDS including assessment for environment and health are prepared as three formats of the full SIDS Dossier, the SIDS Initial Assessment Report (SIAR), and the SIDS Initial Assessment Profile (SIAP) of an HPV chemical. In 1998 the global chemical industry through the International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA) has joined to work with OECD. The OECD has assessed approximately 1,000 chemicals from 1991 through 2004 with ICCA. Till the February of 2005, 592 chemicals of those chemicals completed SIDS reports. Member countries have been targeted the goal of 1,000 new chemicals from 2005 to 2010 and Korea shared 36 chemicals from the 1,000 new chemicals. Currently Korea has completed SIDS reports of 7 chemicals among sponsored 24 chemicals. In conclusion SIDS project will be linked to national program for outputs application with more reliable production. Both the OECD and industry will carry out their commitment to complete assessments for more and the remaining chemicals assessment. The major outputs will contribute to cope with international chemical management.

Quantitative and Semiquantitative Health Risk Assessment of Occupational Exposure to Styrene in a Petrochemical Industry

  • Moshiran, Vahid Ahmadi;Karimi, Ali;Golbabaei, Farideh;Yarandi, Mohsen Sadeghi;Sajedian, Ali Asghar;Koozekonan, Aysa Ghasemi
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.396-402
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    • 2021
  • Background: Styrene is one of the aromatic compounds used in acetonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) producing petrochemicals, which has an impact on health of workers. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the health risks of styrene emitted from the petrochemical industry in Iran. Methods: Air samples were collected based on NIOSH 1501 method. The samples were analyzed by the Varian-cp3800 gas chromatograph. Finally, risk levels of styrene's health effects on employees were assessed by the quantitative method of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and the semiquantitative way by the Singapore Occupational Safety and Health Association. Results: Based on the results, the employees had the highest average exposure to styrene vapors (4.06 × 10-1mg.(kg - day)-1) in the polybutadiene latex (PBL) unit. Therefore, the most top predictors of cancer and non-cancer risk were 2.3×10-4 and 7.26 × 10-1, respectively. Given that the lowest average exposure (1.5 × 10-2mg.(kg - day)-1) was in the dryer unit, the prediction showed a moderate risk of cancer (0.8 × 10-6) and non-cancer (2.3 × 10-3) for the employees. The EPA method also predicted that there would be a definite cancer risk in 16% and a probable risk in 76% of exposures. However, according to the semiquantitative approach, the rate of risk was at the "low" level for all staff. The results showed that there was a significant difference (p < 0.05) between the units in exposure and health risk of styrene (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Given the high risk of styrene's health effects, appropriate control measures are required to reduce the exposure level.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Natural and Processed Cheeses

  • Lee, Heeyoung;Lee, Soomin;Kim, Sejeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Ha, Jimyeong;Yoon, Yohan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제29권8호
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    • pp.1188-1196
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    • 2016
  • This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model ($r=1.82{\times}10^{-11}$) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were $12.40{\pm}19.43g$ and $19.46{\pm}14.39g$, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (${\alpha}1=1$, ${\alpha}2=91$; ${\alpha}1=1$, ${\alpha}2=309$)${\times}$uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be -2.35 and -2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were $9.57{\times}10^{-14}$ and $3.58{\times}10^{-14}$, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by consumption cheese is low, and it can be used to establish microbial criteria for C. perfringens on natural and processed cheeses.

Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments - A Review

  • Choi, Kyoung-Hee;Lee, Heeyoung;Lee, Soomin;Kim, Sejeong;Yoon, Yohan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.307-314
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    • 2016
  • Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models.

항공안전데이터를 사용한 위해요인 위험도 정량적 평가기법 (Quantitative Safety Risk Assessment using Aviation Safety Data)

  • 백현진;김준환;임재진;전성진;최영재
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제30권4호
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    • pp.145-158
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    • 2022
  • To manage State Safety Program (SSP) in a more integrative and proactive manner, an aviation safety authority of the state shall detect and assess the risk of emerging or hidden safety hazards before they provoke accidents or incidents(ICAO, 2018). In case of South Korea, safety risk assessment is conducted by calculating the likelihood and severity of the hazard following ICAO's safety management manual. It is reasonable to extract the safety risk likelihood by calculating the number of occurrence caused by the hazard. However, it is ambiguous to assess the safety risk severity defined as the extent of harm that might be expected to occur as a consequence of the identified hazard. In this paper, a safety risk assessment method which quantitatively calculates the risk of hazard using aviation safety data(i.e. aviation safety mandatory report, etc.) is proposed. By utilizing the proposed method, the existing process that safety risk is being subjectively assessed by safety inspectors can be supplemented. So that essential aviation safety policy decision making can be accomplished by the accurate result of safety risk assessment.