• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantitative risk assessment

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Regional Seismic Risk Assessment for Structural Damage to Buildings in Korea (국내 건축물 지진피해 위험도의 지역단위 평가)

  • Ahn, Sook-Jin;Park, Ji-Hun;Kim, Hye-Won
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.265-273
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    • 2023
  • This study proposes a methodology for the regional seismic risk assessment of structural damage to buildings in Korea based on evaluating individual buildings, considering inconsistency between the administrative district border and grid lines to define seismic hazard. The accuracy of seismic hazards was enhanced by subdividing the current 2km-sized grids into ones with a smaller size. Considering the enhancement of the Korean seismic design code in 2005, existing seismic fragility functions for seismically designed buildings are revised by modifying the capacity spectrum according to the changes in seismic design load. A seismic risk index in building damage is defined using the total damaged floor area considering building size differences. The proposed seismic risk index was calculated for buildings in 29 administrative districts in 'A' city in Korea to validate the proposed assessment algorithm and risk index. In the validation procedure, sensitivity analysis was performed on the grid size, quantitative building damage measure, and seismic fragility function update.

Risk Analysis of Ammonia Leak in the Refrigeration Manufacturing Facilities (냉동제조 시설의 암모니아 누출사고 위험 분석)

  • Kang, Su-Jin;Lee, Ik-Mo;Moon, Jin-Young;Chon, Young-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2017
  • Recently, ammonia leak occurred frequently in the domestic refrigeration manufacturing facilities. Ammonia caused great damage to the environment and human health in the event of an accident as combustible gases and toxic gases. After considering the types of ammonia accidents of domestic refrigeration manufacturing facilities and selected accident scenarios and to analyze the risk analysis through Impact range estimates and frequency analysis and there was a need to establish measures to minimize accident damage. In this study, depending on the method of analysis quantitative risk assessment we analyzed the risk of the receiver tank of ammonia system. Scenario analysis conditions were set according to the 'Technical guidelines for the selection of accident scenario' under the chemicals control act and 'Guidelines for chemical process quantitative risk analysis' of center for chemical process safety. The risk estimates were utilized for consequence analysis and frequency analysis by SAFETI program of DNV, event tree analysis methodology and part count methodology. The individual risk of ammonia system was derived as 7.71E-04 / yr, social risk were derived as 1.17E-03 / yr. The derived risk was confirmed to apply as low as reasonably practicable of the national fire protection association and through risk calculation, it can be used as a way to minimize accidents ammonia leakage accident damage.

Development of a Collision Risk Assessment System for Optimum Safe Route (최적안전항로를 위한 충돌위험도 평가시스템의 개발)

  • Jeon, Ho-Kun;Jung, Yun-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.670-678
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    • 2018
  • In coastal waters where the traffic volume of the ship is high, there is a high possibility of a collision accident because complicated encounter situations frequently occurs between ships. To reduce the collision accidents at sea, a quantitative collision risk assessment is required in addition to the navigator's compliance with COLREG. In this study, a new collision risk assessment system was developed to evaluate the collision risk on ship's planned sailing routes. The appropriate collision risk assessment method was proposed on the basis of reviewing existing collision risk assessment models. The system was developed using MATLAB and it consists of three parts: Map, Bumper and Assessment. The developed system was applied to the test sea area with simple computational conditions for testing and to actual sea areas with real computational conditions for validation. The results show the length of own ship, ship's sailing time and sailing routes affect collision risks. The developed system is expected to be helpful for navigators to choose the optimum safe route before sailing.

A Study on Quantitative Risk Presentation of LNG Station (LNG충전시설의 위험도 표현에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jae-Wook;Yoo, Jin-Hwan;Kim, Bum-Su;Lee, Heon-Seok;Kim, Min-Seop
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2009
  • There are lots of energy facilities using gas(storage facility, compressed gas pipe, station, tank lorry) on the domestic. These major gas facilities cause major accidents associated with fire, explosion, toxic and etc. With the increased interest in reducing air pollution, supply of natural gas for gas vehicles is increasing. Thus, the number of establishments of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) and CNG(Compressed Natural Gas) stations is increasing as well. However, due to major gas accidents such as the fire and explosion accident of a Buchen LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) station, it is difficult to establish a new station. In this research, we present quantitative risk assessment for LCNG;LNG multi-station and compare it result against individual risk criteria of HSE.

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Construction Safety Risk Assessment Method Based on Accident Loss Cost in the Construction Phase (시공단계의 사고손실 비용 기반 건설안전 위험성 평가 방안)

  • Lee, Jae-Hyun;Jeong, Jae-Wook;Jeong, Jae-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.407-408
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    • 2023
  • This article proposes a method to assess construction safety risk during the construction phase based on accident loss costs. Risk assessments for hazardous construction work are required by law, but they lack quantitative criteria. To address this, a survey estimated loss costs due to fatalities in the construction industry, finding labor loss cost and delay reimbursement cost to be the largest factors. The proposed method uses algorithm to calculate expected accidents and risk levels based on project characteristics, work methods, personnel, and environment data. This method is expected to enhance the reliability and usability of risk assessments during the construction phase of construction projects.

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Estimation of Safety in Railway Tunnel by Using Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA를 이용한 철도터널 방재 안전성 평가)

  • Kim, Do-Sik;Kim, Do-Hyung;Kim, Woo-Sung;Lee, Du-Hwa;Lee, Ho-Seok
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.16 no.5 s.64
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    • pp.357-367
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    • 2006
  • Recently, as the construction of new railway and the relocation of existing line increase, tunnel structures grow longer. The railway fire accidents in long tunnel bring large damages of human life and disaster. The interest of safety in long tunnel have a growing and the safety standard of long tunnel is tightening. For that reason, at the planning of long tunnel, the optimum design of safety facility in long tunnel for minimizing the risks and satisfying the safety standard is needed. For the reasonable design of long railway tunnel considering high safety, qualitative estimation for tunnel safety is required. In this study, QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) technique is applied to design of long railway tunnel for assuring the safety function and estimating the risk of safety. The case study for safety design in long railway tunnel is tarried out to verifying the QRA technique for two railway tunnels. Thus, the inclined and vertical shaft for escape way and safety facilities in long tunnel are planned, and the risks of tunnel safety for each case are estimated quantitatively.

A Study on the Advancement of Quantitative Risk Assessment for the PBL Process - The Center of FTA and Consequence Analysis- (PBL 반응공정의 정량적 위험성 평가에 관한 연구 - 결함수분석(FTA) 및 사고결과영향분석(CA)을 중심으로-)

  • Lee Young-Soon;Kang Sun-Jung;Choi Bong-Sun;Kim Hyong-Shuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 1998
  • A quantitative risk assessment and consequence analysis for PBL(Poly Butadiene Latex) reaction processes were performed. As a result of the Quantitative risk assessment, for the accident probability of PBL reactors causing a reaction runaway, was calculated as $9.197{\times}10^{-5}/yr$ The most important factor that affected the accident probability of PBL reactor was the relief device. When the reactor exploded, peak overpressure at the target point was $5.066{\times}10^5(Pa)$ and the range of effects windows to be broken occurred in almost all of the factory areas. The maximum radius of effect was 27m, in which workers could be die by the direct for eardrum damage was calculated at 77m. When the PBL reactor exploded, the extent of structural damage to buildings was calculated from the center of the explosion to a range of 52m. The results of the study's assessment have provided a direction for facility's improvement as well as effective safety investment.

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The Development of a Checklist for Quantitative Assessment of Risk Factors of Musculoskeletal Complaints in Shipbuilding Workers (조선소 근로자의 근골격계 자각증상에 대한 위험요인 평가척도 개발)

  • Kim, Won-Ho
    • Physical Therapy Korea
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a checklist of risk factors for quantitative assessment of musculoskeletal complaints in shipbuilding workers. A key point was to develop comprehensive a checklist including the worker's physical ability, as ergonomic and workload factors. ln the first, through correlation analysis between musculoskeletal complaints and physical abilities in shipbuilding workers, risk factors related to physical abilities were selected. In the second, after the development of a checklist was composed of physical, ergonomic and workload factors, factor analysis was used to test the validity of the developed checklist. Each factors selected finally showed that physical factors were hand grip strength, spinal curvature, and flexibility (sit to reach), ergonomic factors were posture, total exposed time, duration, and force of working, and workload factors were physical and psychological workload perceived by worker. The results showed that musculoskeletal complaints was associated with physical abilities (p<.05). The developed checklist had a reliability of .761 (Cronbach=.761) and a validity and explanation of 54.9%. The criterion of management was classified in 4 stages by relative weights of each factor. It is suggested that active intervention is needed to reduce musculoskeletal complaints in workers with more than a 14.31 score.

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A Study on the Processing Method of Reliability Database using 2-Bayes Theory (2-Bayes 이론을 이용한 데이터 처리방법에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, M.S.;Rhie, K.W.;Kim, T.H.;Yoon, I.K.;Oh, Y.D.;Seo, D.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.144-149
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    • 2009
  • The safety assessment for facility industry is now being periodically performed in Korea. For the purpose of scientific safety management, QRA(Quantitative Risk Assessment) is also being performed, and reliability data of the facilities is essential to perform the assessment. The necessary reliability data for QRA have been generally announced the values in other process industries, which results in the drop of risk reliability. The most appropriate method is to perform a direct reliability analysis towards the facilities undergoing safety assessment. In this study, the distinction between homogeneous sample estimation and multi-sample estimation of reliability data clarify using 2-Bayes theory.