• 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.307-319
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• 2010

대구지하철 화재사고에서와 같이 철도터널 내 화재는 제연과 배연의 어려움으로 자칫 대형 사고로 이어질 가능성이 크다. 철도터널에서는 화재 시 안전성 확보를 위하여 정량적 위험도 평가를 통하여 방재 시설을 설치하도록 되어 있다. 이 연구에서는 터널내 화재시 정량적 위험도평가를 위해서 필요한 화재발생 표준시나리오, 화재 및 대피해석모델, 사망자 추정모델, 사회적 위험도 평가기준 등을 정립하여 철도터널에 대한 정량적 안전성 평가 기법을 제시하고자 하였다. 또한 본 연구에는 각각의 철도터널 화재사고에 대한 정량적 위험도를 평가할 수 있는 프로그램의 개발과 각종 모델을 정립하여 호남고속철도 방재시설 설계에 반영하였다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2006

Subway platform is divided into Side-platform type and Center-platform type. In this study does quantitative fire risk assesment of subway platform types in numerical analysis by using CFD model. From the result of this study, 1) All exhaust mode was low-end result it seems most fire risk at Side-platform station. 2) All exhaust mode was low-end result it seems most fire risk at Center-Platform station. 3) When comparing same type exhaust mode of Side-platform and Center-platform that last thing was visible $9.1{\sim}72.34%$ low-end fire risk. Center-platform is more opera-tive than Side-platform that reduce fire risk when that was same dimension and external environment. Designer look upon a fire characteristic of subway platform types when he make smoke control air volume and platform area design.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.143-154
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• 2008

다양한 제반 위험요소가 상존하는 고속도로 교통안전시설의 안전에 대한 사회적 관심증가로 인하여 교통안전시 설에 대한 체계적인 성능, 비용 및 효과 분석 프로세스가 요구되어지고 있다. 교통안전시설은 도로사용자의 직 간접적인 사고위험성이 상존하는 중요한 시설물임을 고려하여 위험도의 정량적 평가에 대한 고려가 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 교통안전시설의 가치분석 수행시 정량적 위험도분석 결과를 적용한 합리적인 가치분석(VE)기법을 제시하였으며, 고속도로 개선 전 후 중앙분리대에 적용하여 가치평가를 수행하였다. 또한 기능분석을 통해 중점개선대상 기능 도출기법을 제시하였으며, 이를 통해 개선 전 중앙분리대 문제점의 정확한 분석이 가능하며 향후 다양한 교통안전시설의 가치대안 창출 시 적용 가능하다.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.373-378
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• 2012

해상에서 위험성평가는 해양사고예방의 관점에서 안전한 항만수로를 설계하는데 중요한 역할을 하고 있다. 본 연구는 IALA에서 권고하는 정량적인 충돌확률분석방법인 IWRAP(IALA Waterway Risk Assessment)에 기초를 두고 목포항 진입수로의 충돌위험성을 분석하였다. 과거 AIS 및 레이더의 기록 데이터를 IWRAP 평가도구에 적용함으로써 선박의 조우상태별 충돌위험 확률을 계산하였다. 항로의 구간별로 위험도를 제공함으로써, VTS에서 섹터 관제의 관점에서 항로구간별로 해상교통의 특징과 개선책을 세우는데 기여할 것으로 사료된다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제13권21호
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• pp.29-41
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• 1990

An assessment of risk in industrial and urban environments is essential in the prevention of accident and in the analysis of situations which are hazardous to public health and safety. The risk imposed by a particular hazard increases with the likelihood of occurence of the event, the exposure and the possible consequence of that event. In a traditional approach, the calculation of a quantitative value of risk is usually based on an assignment of numerical values of each of the risk factors. Then the product of the values of likelihood, exposure and consequences called risk score is derived. However vagueness and imprecision in mathematical quantification of risk are equated with fuzziness rather than randomness. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the area of systems safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique based on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

• 정보처리학회논문지:소프트웨어 및 데이터공학
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.75-80
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• 2012

소프트웨어 개발 시, 프로세스 개선에 저해 요인이 되는 소프트웨어, 하드웨어, 인적 오류의 문제가 다수 존재한다. 시스템의 저해 요인을 제거하고 동시에 체계적으로 이를 관리하기 위하여 본 논문에서는 오류의 정량적인 분석방안을 제안한다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.416-423
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• 2003

During the last ten years, the need has been increased for reducing maintenance cost for aged equipments and ensuring safety, efficiency and profitability of petrochemical and refinery plants. RBI (Risk Based Inspection) methodology is one of the most promising technologies satisfying the need in the field of integrity management. In this study, a user-friendly software, realRBl for RBI based on the API 581 code was developed. This software has modules for evaluating qualitative and semi-quantitative risk level, analyzing quantitative risks using the potential consequences of a failure of the pressure boundary, and assessing the likelihood of failure. A quantitative analysis was performed for 16 columns in a domestic NCC (Naphtha Cracking Center) plant whose operating time reaches about 12 years. Each column was considered as two equipment parts by dividing into top and bottom. Generic column failure frequencies were adjusted based on likelihood data. After determining release rate, release duration and release mass for each failure scenario, flammable/explosive and toxic consequences were assessed. Current risks for 32 equipment parts were evaluated and risk based prioritization were determined as a final result.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.742-743
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• 2015

Korean construction industry has developed with national economy growth for a couple of decades. However, because of slump of real estate, the domestic construction industry was intimidated. In this situation, many construction company has no choice but to go abroad to find construction projects. However, almost small or medium-sized construction companies are very hard to operate their business because they have small funding ability and weak labor power. Therefore, this study aims to propose an assessment tool through analyzing risk factors of overseas construction projects for small or medium-sized companies by examining preceding research and interviewing industry experts. Weights of the risk factors are determined through the surveys of the industry practitioners. All of the data is configured into the assessment tool and this converts the quantitative information which leads to the optimal of strategies choice. This paper provides a quantitative measurement of possible performance and detailed assessment of each itemized risk factors. This assessment tool is qualified for industry experts so that it can safely be applied to the future projects. Ultimately, many small or medium sized construction companies will benefit from the tool proposed in this study to examine the potential of the overseas market expansion.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.71-76
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• 2007

Failures of equipments for train control systems are linked directly to extensive damages of human lives or financial losses from the increasing uses of train control equipments utilizing computers. Then safety activities for assuring safety and reliability are needed during the system life-cycle. Risk analysis is important phase to increase safety from determining the risk presented by the identified hazard. In this paper, we investigated several methods for risk estimation of safety activities, and then we drew a comparison between original methods to suggest optimized one in the application to train control systems. In the result of the comparison, we had plan to propose the risk analysis method called Best-Practice(BP) risk method combining advantages of the qualitative and the quantitative analysis. In addition, we attempted to apply the BP-risk method to domestic train control systems handling in Korea.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.25-41
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• 2004

There have been many studies to build a model that can help investors construct optimal portfolio. Most of the previous models, however, are based upon the path-breaking Markowitz model (1959) which is a quantitative model. One of the most important problems with that kind of quantitative model is that, in reality, most of the investors use not only quantitative, but also qualitative information when they select their optimal portfolio. Since collecting both types of information from the markets are time consuming and expensive, making a set of target assets smaller, without suffering heavy loss in the rate of return, would attract investors. To extract only desired assets among all available assets, we need knowledge that identifies investors' preference for the risk of the assets. This study suggests two-layer decision-making rules capable of identifying an investor's risk preference and an architecture applying them to a quantitative portfolio model based on risk and expected return. Our knowledge-based portfolio system is to build an investor's preference-oriented portfolio. The empirical tests using the data from Korean capital markets show the results that our model contributes significantly to the construction of a better portfolio in the perspective of an investor's benefit/cost ratio than that produced by the existing portfolio models.