• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantitative models

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Projecting the climatic influences on the water requirements of wheat-rice cropping system in Pakistan (파키스탄 밀-옥수수 재배시스템의 기후변화를 반영한 필요수량 산정)

  • Ahmad, Mirza Junaid;Choi, Kyung-Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.486-486
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    • 2018
  • During the post green revolution era, wheat and rice were the main crops of concern to cater the food security issues of Pakistan. The use of semi dwarf high yielding varieties along with extensive use of fertilizers and surface and ground water lead to substantial increase in crop production. However, the higher crop productivity came at the cost of over exploitation of the precious land and water resources, which ultimately has resulted in the dwindling production rates, loss of soil fertility, and qualitative and quantitative deterioration of both surface and ground water bodies. Recently, during the past two decades, severe climate changes are further pushing the Pakistan's wheat-rice system towards its limits. This necessitates a careful analysis of the current crop water requirements and water footprints (both green and blue) to project the future trends under the most likely climate change phenomenon. This was done by using the FAO developed CROPWAT model v 8.0, coupled with the statistically-downscaled climate projections from the 8 Global Circulation Models (GCMs), for the two future time slices, 2030s (2021-2050) and 2060s (2051-2080), under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The wheat-rice production system of Punjab, Pakistan was considered as a case study in exploration of how the changing climate might influence the crop water requirements and water footprints of the two major crops. Under the worst, most likely future scenario of temperature rise and rainfall reduction, the crop water requirements and water footprints, especially blue, increased, owing to the elevated irrigation demands originating from the accelerated evapotranspiration rates. A probable increase in rainfall as envisaged by some GCMs may partly alleviate the adverse impacts of the temperature rise but the higher uncertainties associated with the predicated rainfall patterns is worth considering before reaching a final conclusion. The total water footprints were continuously increasing implying that future climate would profoundly influence the crop evapotranspiration demands. The results highlighted the significance of the irrigation water availability in order to sustain and improve the wheat-rice production system of Punjab, Pakistan.

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Vision-based dense displacement and strain estimation of miter gates with the performance evaluation using physics-based graphics models

  • Narazaki, Yasutaka;Hoskere, Vedhus;Eick, Brian A.;Smith, Matthew D.;Spencer, Billie F.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.709-721
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    • 2019
  • This paper investigates the framework of vision-based dense displacement and strain measurement of miter gates with the approach for the quantitative evaluation of the expected performance. The proposed framework consists of the following steps: (i) Estimation of 3D displacement and strain from images before and after deformation (water-fill event), (ii) evaluation of the expected performance of the measurement, and (iii) selection of measurement setting with the highest expected accuracy. The framework first estimates the full-field optical flow between the images before and after water-fill event, and project the flow to the finite element (FE) model to estimate the 3D displacement and strain. Then, the expected displacement/strain estimation accuracy is evaluated at each node/element of the FE model. Finally, methods and measurement settings with the highest expected accuracy are selected to achieve the best results from the field measurement. A physics-based graphics model (PBGM) of miter gates of the Greenup Lock and Dam with the updated texturing step is used to simulate the vision-based measurements in a photo-realistic environment and evaluate the expected performance of different measurement plans (camera properties, camera placement, post-processing algorithms). The framework investigated in this paper can be used to analyze and optimize the performance of the measurement with different camera placement and post-processing steps prior to the field test.

Verification of Effective Support Points of Stern Tube Bearing Using Nonlinear Elastic Multi-Support Bearing Elements (비선형 탄성 다점지지 베어링 요소를 이용한 선미관 베어링의 유효지지점 검증)

  • Choung, Joon-Mo;Choe, Ick-Heung;Kim, Kyu-Chang
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.42 no.5 s.143
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    • pp.479-486
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    • 2005
  • The final goal of shift alignment design is that the bearing reaction forces or mean pressures are within design boundaries for various service conditions of a ship. However, it is found that calculated bearing load can be substantially variable according to the locations of the effective support points of after sterntube bearing which are determined by simple calculation or assumption suggested by classification societies. A new analysis method for shaft alignment calculation is introduced in order to resolve these problems. Key concept of the new method is featured by adopting both nonlinear elastic and multi-support elements to simulate a bearing support Hertz contact theory is basically applied for nonlinear elastic stiffness calculation instead of the projected area method suggested by most of classification societies. Three loading conditions according to the bearing offset and the hydrodynamic moment and twelve models according to the locations of the effective support points of sterntube bearings are prepared to carry out quantitative verifications for an actual shafting system of 8000 TEU class container vessel. It is found that there is relatively large difference between assumed and calculated effective support points.

A Simple Ensemble Prediction System for Wind Power Forecasting - Evaluation by Typhoon Bolaven Case - (풍력예보를 위한 단순 앙상블예측시스템 - 태풍 볼라벤 사례를 통한 평가 -)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Hyun-Goo;Kang, Yong-Heack;Yun, Chang-Yeol;Kim, Ji-Young;Lee, Jun-Shin
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2016
  • A simple but practical Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) for wind power forecasting was developed and evaluated using the measurement of the offshore meteorological tower, HeMOSU-1(Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unite-1) installed at the Southwest Offshore in South Korea. The EPS developed by the Korea Institute of Energy Research is based on a simple ensemble mean of two Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) models, WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. In addition, the Kalman Filter is applied for real-time quality improvement of wind ensembles. All forecasts with EPS were analyzed in comparison with the HeMOSU-1 measurements at 97 m above sea level during Typhoon Bolaven episode in August 2012. The results indicate that EPS was in the best agreement with the in-situ measurement regarding (peak) wind speed and cut-out speed incidence. The RMSE of wind speed was 1.44 m/s while the incidence time lag of cut-out wind speed was 0 hour, which means that the EPS properly predicted a development and its movement. The duration of cut-out wind speed period by the EPS was also acceptable. This study is anticipated to provide a useful quantitative guide and information for a large-scale offshore wind farm operation in the decision making of wind turbine control especially during a typhoon episode.

Analysis of Optical Properties of Organic Carbon for Real-time Monitoring (유기탄소 실시간 모니터링을 위한 분광학적 특성인자 분석)

  • You, Youngmin;Park, Jongkwan;Lee, Byungjoon;Lee, Sungyun
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.344-354
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    • 2021
  • Optical methods such as UV and fluorescence spectrophotometers can be applied not only in the qualitative analysis of dissolved organic matter (DOM), but also in real-time quantitative DOM monitoring for wastewater and natural water. In this study, we measure the UV254 and fluorescence excitation emission spectra for a sewage treatment plant influent and effluent, and river water before and after sewage effluent flows into the river to examine the composition and origin of DOM. In addition, a correlation analysis between quantified DOM characteristics and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was conducted. Based on the fluorescence excitation emission spectra analysis, it was confirmed that the protein-type tryptophan-like DOM was the dominant substance in the influent, and that the organic matter exhibited relatively more humic properties after biological treatment. However, DOM in river water showed the fluorescence characteristics of terrestrial humic-like and algal tyrosine-like (protein-like) organic matter. In addition, a correlation analysis was conducted between the DOC and optical indices such as UV254, the fluorescence intensity of protein-like and humic-like organic matter, then DOC prediction models were suggested for wastewater and river monitoring during non-rainfall and rainfall events. This study provides basic information that can improve the understanding of the contribution of DOC concentration by DOM components, and can be used for organic carbon concentration management in wastewater and natural water.

Maxillary first molar wear: a longitudinal study of children

  • Kim, Won-Hee;Nam, Shin-Eun;Park, Young-Seok;Lee, Seung-Pyo
    • Anatomy and Cell Biology
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.251-259
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    • 2018
  • The aim of this study is to examine the correlation between tooth wear and age by quantitatively measuring maxillary first molar wear in children. A total of 150 maxillary dental models were analyzed in 30 subjects (male, 11; female, 19) with an age range of 6-14 years. Maxillary first molar wear were assessed based on area, volume and the shortest distance from the buccal occlusal plane to the central pit point (BCPH). The area and volume of the tooth cusps were measured at four different offset-plane heights (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, and 0.8 mm). Relationship between age and the amount of wear or BCPH were statistically analyzed. Correlation and regression analyses were also performed, and age estimation was obtained with linear regression analysis. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed significant differences between age and the amount of wear based on area, volume, and offset-plane height. Except age of 8 and 10, 12 and 14's 0.2-mm offset-plane-measured volume, all area and volume measurement of all ages and offset-plane height showed a significant amount of increase. Wear speeds were calculated using the BCPH. Among age and measurement variables, the correlation coefficient was strongest when the volume was measured from the 0.4-mm offset-plane. As age increases, the amount of wear, as quantified by area and volume measurements, also increases. According to this study, a regression equation that can be used for age estimation is follows: Age $(y)=0.16{\times}0.4V+0.85$ ($R^2=0.490$) using volume.

Development of a Predictive Model and Risk Assessment for the Growth of Staphylococcus aureus in Ham Rice Balls Mixed with Different Sauces (소스 종류를 달리한 햄 주먹밥에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장예측모델 개발 및 위해평가)

  • Oh, Sujin;Yeo, Seoungsoon;Kim, Misook
    • Journal of the Korean Dietetic Association
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.30-43
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    • 2019
  • This study compared the predictive models for the growth kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in ham rice balls. In addition, a semi-quantitative risk assessment of S. aureus on ham rice balls was conducted using FDA-iRISK 4.0. The rice was rounded with chopped ham, which was mixed with mayonnaise (SHM), soy sauce (SHS), or gochujang (SHG), and was contaminated artificially with approximately $2.5{\log}\;CFU{\cdot}g^{-1}$ of S. aureus. The inoculated rice balls were then stored at $7^{\circ}C$, $15^{\circ}C$, and $25^{\circ}C$, and the number of viable S. aureus was counted. The lag phases duration (LPD) and maximum specific growth rate (SGR) were calculated using a Baranyi model as a primary model. The growth parameters were analyzed using the polynomial equation as a function of temperature. The LPD values of S. aureus decreased with increasing temperature in SHS and SHG. On the other hand, those in SHM did not show any trend with increasing temperature. The SGR positively correlated with temperature. Equations for LPD and SGR were developed and validated using $R^2$ values, which ranged from 0.9929 to 0.9999. In addition, the total DALYs (disability adjusted life years) per year in the ham rice balls with soy sauce and gochujang was greater than mayonnaise. These results could be used to calculate the expected number of illnesses, and set the hazard management method taking the DALY value for public health into account.

An Empirical Study on the Feasibility of Eco-efficiency for Sustainable Development between Korea and China (한중간 지속가능발전의 타당성에 관한 실증분석)

  • Choi, Yongrok
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.205-219
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    • 2010
  • In general, industrial production involves large amounts of harmful by-product, causing serious pollution and ecological risk. Eco-efficiency, which indicates how efficient the economic activity is by considering both the environmental risks and economic performance, is a new concept for economic sustainability analysis and quantitative ecological risk analysis. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been widely used to examine eco-efficiency in recent years. Whereas traditional DEA models such as CCR and BCC model neglect undesirable outputs, this paper adopts a stochastic undesirable-output DEA model to measure the eco-efficiency of each province of China and Korea. The results indicate that whereas the eco-efficiency of the eastern region was the highest, that of the western region was the lowest. The reason may come from the negative external dis-economies of environment. And thus the governmental efforts for outreach on the underdeveloped regions should be promoted.

Study on the Skin-frictional Drag Reduction Phenomenon by Air Layer using CFD Technique (CFD 기법을 활용한 공기층에 의한 마찰항력 감소 현상 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Taek;Kim, HyoungTae;Lee, Dong-Yeon
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.361-372
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    • 2019
  • The flow pattern of air layers and skin-friction drag reduction by air injection are investigated to find the suitable multiphase flow model using unstructured finite-volume CFD solver for the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. In the present computations, two different multiphase flow modeling approaches, such as the Volume of Fluid (VOF) and the Eulerian Multi-Phase (EMP), are adopted to investigate their performances in resolving the two-phase flow pattern and in estimating the frictional drag reduction. First of all, the formation pattern of air layers generated by air injection through a circular opening on the bottom of a flat plate are investigated. These results are then compared with those of MMkiharju's experimental results. Subsequently, the quantitative ratios of skin-friction drag reduction including the behavior of air layers, within turbulent boundary layers in large scale and at high Reynolds number conditions, are investigated under the same conditions as the model test that has been conducted in the US Navy's William B. Morgan Large Cavitation Channel (LCC). From these results, it is found that both VOF and EMP models have similar capability and accuracy in capturing the topology of ventilated air cavities so called'air pockets and branches'. However, EMP model is more favorable in predicting quantitatively the percentage of frictional drag reduction by air injection.

Quantitative assessment of steroid amount in the tissue after epidural steroid injection: a new rabbit model

  • Cho, Jungheum;Lee, Joon Woo;Lee, Eugene;Kang, Yusuhn;Cho, Ha Ra;Kim, Dong Yoon;Ho, Myoung Jin;Kang, Myung Joo;Choi, Yong Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Pain
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.264-270
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    • 2019
  • Background: To develop a rabbit epidural steroid injection (ESI) model for analyzing steroid retention in the tissue, and to assess the difference in steroid retention in the model according to the location and time elapsed after ESI. Methods: Fluoroscopy-guided ESI was performed using the interlaminar approach between the lowest two lumbar segments in 13 female New Zealand white rabbits. Four rabbits were allocated to each of three different groups according to the time of sacrifice: 3, 7, and 15 days post-ESI; the remaining rabbit was sacrificed immediately post-ESI to obtain baseline data. After sacrifice, two segments were harvested: the lowest two lumbar vertebrae and another two lumbar vertebrae immediately above these. The residual steroid amount (RSA) and residual steroid concentration (RSC) in the collected spinal columns were analyzed. A linear mixed model was used to compare RSAs and RSCs between the injected and adjacent segments, and among the number of days until sacrifice; P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Both RSA and RSC of the injected segment were significantly higher than those of the adjacent segment (P < 0.001, both). The RSA and RSC significantly decreased over time (P = 0.009 and P = 0.016, respectively). Conclusions: The developed rabbit ESI model verified that significantly more steroid was retained at the injected segment than at the adjacent segment and the residual steroid decreased over time. This model could be useful not only for comparing current steroid medications, but also for developing new, better steroid formulations.