• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantitative evaluation models

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Quantitative Analysis of Port Incentive Effect: Focusing on Busan Port (항만인센티브제도의 효과에 대한 정량적 분석: 부산항을 중심으로)

  • Ha, Myung-Sin;Kim, Chul-Min;Chang, Byoung-Ky
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.355-372
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    • 2011
  • Various incentive policies for transshipment cargo have been enforced without any evaluation of the effectiveness. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of volume incentive on container transshipment cargo. To be different from previous studies, this study tries to quantitatively assess the incentive effects by using econometric techniques. The result derived from the ARIMA type models indicates that the total amount of the increased transshipment cargo during the last 7 years is about one million TEU. In the meanwhile, the multivariate long run equilibrium model implies that the increased transshipment cargo is less than 0.5 million TEU for the 7 years. Furthermore, the structural break tests indicate that the volume incentive does not change the model structures. It means that the effect of volume incentive is not statistically significant. Consequently, the test results conclude the effect of volume incentive on transshipment cargo is not significant although the volume of transshipment cargo is increased to some extent by volume incentive. Considering the magnitude of BPA's expenditure, we doubt the effectiveness of volume incentive. This study, therefore, encourages the port authority to research a more efficient way to induce transshipment cargo rather than focusing on only volume incentives.

Providing the combined models for groundwater changes using common indicators in GIS (GIS 공통 지표를 활용한 지하수 변화 통합 모델 제공)

  • Samaneh, Hamta;Seo, You Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.245-255
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    • 2022
  • Evaluating the qualitative the qualitative process of water resources by using various indicators, as one of the most prevalent methods for optimal managing of water bodies, is necessary for having one regular plan for protection of water quality. In this study, zoning maps were developed on a yearly basis by collecting and reviewing the process, validating, and performing statistical tests on qualitative parameters҆ data of the Iranian aquifers from 1995 to 2020 using Geographic Information System (GIS), and based on Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Radial Basic Function (RBF), and Global Polynomial Interpolation (GPI) methods and Kriging and Co-Kriging techniques in three types including simple, ordinary, and universal. Then, minimum uncertainty and zoning error in addition to proximity for ASE and RMSE amount, was selected as the optimum model. Afterwards, the selected model was zoned by using Scholar and Wilcox. General evaluation of groundwater situation of Iran, revealed that 59.70 and 39.86% of the resources are classified into the class of unsuitable for agricultural and drinking purposes, respectively indicating the crisis of groundwater quality in Iran. Finally, for validating the extracted results, spatial changes in water quality were evaluated using the Groundwater Quality Index (GWQI), indicating high sensitivity of aquifers to small quantitative changes in water level in addition to severe shortage of groundwater reserves in Iran.

Development of Cloud-Based Medical Image Labeling System and It's Quantitative Analysis of Sarcopenia (클라우드기반 의료영상 라벨링 시스템 개발 및 근감소증 정량 분석)

  • Lee, Chung-Sub;Lim, Dong-Wook;Kim, Ji-Eon;Noh, Si-Hyeong;Yu, Yeong-Ju;Kim, Tae-Hoon;Yoon, Kwon-Ha;Jeong, Chang-Won
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.11 no.7
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    • pp.233-240
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    • 2022
  • Most of the recent AI researches has focused on developing AI models. However, recently, artificial intelligence research has gradually changed from model-centric to data-centric, and the importance of learning data is getting a lot of attention based on this trend. However, it takes a lot of time and effort because the preparation of learning data takes up a significant part of the entire process, and the generation of labeling data also differs depending on the purpose of development. Therefore, it is need to develop a tool with various labeling functions to solve the existing unmetneeds. In this paper, we describe a labeling system for creating precise and fast labeling data of medical images. To implement this, a semi-automatic method using Back Projection, Grabcut techniques and an automatic method predicted through a machine learning model were implemented. We not only showed the advantage of running time for the generation of labeling data of the proposed system, but also showed superiority through comparative evaluation of accuracy. In addition, by analyzing the image data set of about 1,000 patients, meaningful diagnostic indexes were presented for men and women in the diagnosis of sarcopenia.

Development of Marine Debris Monitoring Methods Using Satellite and Drone Images (위성 및 드론 영상을 이용한 해안쓰레기 모니터링 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Heung-Min;Bak, Suho;Han, Jeong-ik;Ye, Geon Hui;Jang, Seon Woong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_1
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    • pp.1109-1124
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    • 2022
  • This study proposes a marine debris monitoring methods using satellite and drone multispectral images. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model was applied to detect marine debris using Sentinel-2 satellite image. And for the detection of marine debris using drone multispectral images, performance evaluation and comparison of U-Net, DeepLabv3+ (ResNet50) and DeepLabv3+ (Inceptionv3) among deep learning models were performed (mIoU 0.68). As a result of marine debris detection using satellite image, the F1-Score was 0.97. Marine debris detection using drone multispectral images was performed on vegetative debris and plastics. As a result of detection, when DeepLabv3+ (Inceptionv3) was used, the most model accuracy, mean intersection over union (mIoU), was 0.68. Vegetative debris showed an F1-Score of 0.93 and IoU of 0.86, while plastics showed low performance with an F1-Score of 0.5 and IoU of 0.33. However, the F1-Score of the spectral index applied to generate plastic mask images was 0.81, which was higher than the plastics detection performance of DeepLabv3+ (Inceptionv3), and it was confirmed that plastics monitoring using the spectral index was possible. The marine debris monitoring technique proposed in this study can be used to establish a plan for marine debris collection and treatment as well as to provide quantitative data on marine debris generation.

A Data-based Sales Forecasting Support System for New Businesses (데이터기반의 신규 사업 매출추정방법 연구: 지능형 사업평가 시스템을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Sung, Tae-Eung;Choi, San
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2017
  • Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

Analysis of Changes in Tree Height-Diameter Allometry for Major Tree Species in South Korea (우리나라 주요 수종의 수고-직경 상대생장 변화 분석)

  • Moonil Kim;Taejin Park;Youngjin Ko;Go-Mi Choi;Soonchul Son;Yejun Kang;Jaehee Yoo;Minkyeong Kim;Hyeonji Park;Woo-Kyun Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.1
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2023
  • Forest biomass is used as a representative indicator of forest size, maturity, and productivity. Therefore, quantitative evaluation is important for management and harvest as well as the evaluation of ecosystem functions and services including CO2 absorption. The allometric equation is a widely used method for estimating the value of each component through the relative growth rate of plants. Recently, studies indicated that the relative growth of trees is changing because of the increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and the resulting climate change, raising the need to review the previously developed relative growth models and coefficients. In this study, the height-diameter at breast height (DBH) relationships of four major tree species in Korea [(Pinus densiflora (PD), Larix kaempferi (LK), Quercus variabilis (QV), and Quercus mongolica (QM)] were analyzed using the 5th-7th National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Furthermore, these results were compared with the present yield table from the National Institute for Forest Science. This analysis revealed that the expected height for the same DBH increased as the NFI progressed. For example, in model analysis, the expected heights for PD, LK, QV, and QM for DBH of 25 cm were 12.48, 19.17, 14.47, and 13.19 m, respectively, in the 5th NFI data. In the 7th NFI data, these values were estimated as 13.61 (+9.1%), 21.58 (+12.7%), 15.76 (+8.9%), and 13.93 m (+5.6%), respectively. These results indicate that the major tree species in South Korean forests currently are more vigorous in height growth than in diameter growth when compared to the height-DBH development trends by tree species identified through past survey data.

A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

A Case Study on the UK Park and Green Space Policies for Inclusive Urban Regeneration (영국의 포용적 도시재생을 위한 공원녹지 정책 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Hwa;Kim, Yong-Gook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.78-90
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the direction of developing policies for parks and green spaces for inclusive urban planning and regeneration. By reviewing the status, budget, and laws pertaining to urban parks in Korea, as well as assessing the inclusivity of urban parks, this study revealed the problems and limitations in Korea as follows. First, the urban park system, which takes into account indicators such as park area per capita and green space ratio, is focused only on quantitative expansion. Second, the distribution of urban parks is unequal; hence, the higher the number of vulnerable residents, the lower the quality of urban parks and green spaces. Moreover, this study focused on the UK central government, along with the five local governments, including London, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Belfast, and Liverpool. Through an analysis of the contexts and contents establishing UK park and green space policies that can reduce socioeconomic inequalities while at the same time increase inclusiveness. This study discovered the following. The government's awareness of the necessity of tackling socioeconomic inequalities to make an inclusive society, the change in the urban regeneration policies from physical redevelopment to neighborhood renewal, and the survey and research on the correlation of parks and green spaces, inequality, health, and well-being provided the background for policy establishment. As a result, the creation of an inclusive society has been reflected in the stated goals of the UK's national plan and the strategies for park and green space supply and qualitative improvement. Deprived areas and vulnerable groups have been included in many local governments' park and green space policies. Also, tools for analyzing deficiencies in parks and methods for examining the qualitative evaluation of parks were developed. Besides, for the sustainability of each project, various funding programs have been set up, such as raising funds and fund-matching schemes. Different ways of supporting partnerships have been arranged, such as the establishment of collaborative bodies for government organizations, allowing for the participation of private organizations. The study results suggested five policy schemes, including conducting research on inequality and inclusiveness for parks and green spaces, developing strategies for improving the quality of park services, identifying tools for analyzing policy areas, developing park project models for urban regeneration, and building partnerships and establishing support systems.

An Empirical Study on Motivation Factors and Reward Structure for User's Createve Contents Generation: Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Commitment (창의적인 UCC 제작에 영향을 미치는 동기 및 보상 체계에 대한 연구: 몰입에 매개 효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Woo;Yang, Seung-Hwa;Lim, Seong-Taek;Lee, In-Seong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.141-170
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    • 2010
  • User created content (UCC) is created and shared by common users on line. From the user's perspective, the increase of UCCs has led to an expansion of alternative means of communications, while from the business perspective UCCs have formed an environment in which an abundant amount of new contents can be produced. Despite outward quantitative growth, however, many aspects of UCCs do not meet the expectations of general users in terms of quality, and this can be observed through pirated contents and user-copied contents. The purpose of this research is to investigate effective methods for fostering production of creative user-generated content. This study proposes two core elements, namely, reward and motivation, which are believed to enhance content creativity as well as the mediating factor and users' committement, which will be effective for bridging the increasing motivation and content creativity. Based on this perspective, this research takes an in-depth look at issues related to constructing the dimensions of reward and motivation in UCC services for creative content product, which are identified in three phases. First, three dimensions of rewards have been proposed: task dimension, social dimension, and organizational dimention. The task dimension rewards are related to the inherent characteristics of a task such as writing blog articles and pasting photos. Four concrete ways of providing task-related rewards in UCC environments are suggested in this study, which include skill variety, task significance, task identity, and autonomy. The social dimensioni rewards are related to the connected relationships among users. The organizational dimension consists of monetary payoff and recognition from others. Second, the two types of motivations are suggested to be affected by the diverse rewards schemes: intrinsic motivation and extrinsic motivation. Intrinsic motivation occurs when people create new UCC contents for its' own sake, whereas extrinsic motivation occurs when people create new contents for other purposes such as fame and money. Third, commitments are suggested to work as important mediating variables between motivation and content creativity. We believe commitments are especially important in online environments because they have been found to exert stronger impacts on the Internet users than other relevant factors do. Two types of commitments are suggested in this study: emotional commitment and continuity commitment. Finally, content creativity is proposed as the final dependent variable in this study. We provide a systematic method to measure the creativity of UCC content based on the prior studies in creativity measurement. The method includes expert evaluation of blog pages posted by the Internet users. In order to test the theoretical model of our study, 133 active blog users were recruited to participate in a group discussion as well as a survey. They were asked to fill out a questionnaire on their commitment, motivation and rewards of creating UCC contents. At the same time, their creativity was measured by independent experts using Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking. Finally, two independent users visited the study participants' blog pages and evaluated their content creativity using the Creative Products Semantic Scale. All the data were compiled and analyzed through structural equation modeling. We first conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to validate the measurement model of our research. It was found that measures used in our study satisfied the requirement of reliability, convergent validity as well as discriminant validity. Given the fact that our measurement model is valid and reliable, we proceeded to conduct a structural model analysis. The results indicated that all the variables in our model had higher than necessary explanatory powers in terms of R-square values. The study results identified several important reward shemes. First of all, skill variety, task importance, task identity, and automony were all found to have significant influences on the intrinsic motivation of creating UCC contents. Also, the relationship with other users was found to have strong influences upon both intrinsic and extrinsic motivation. Finally, the opportunity to get recognition for their UCC work was found to have a significant impact on the extrinsic motivation of UCC users. However, different from our expectation, monetary compensation was found not to have a significant impact on the extrinsic motivation. It was also found that commitment was an important mediating factor in UCC environment between motivation and content creativity. A more fully mediating model was found to have the highest explanation power compared to no-mediation or partially mediated models. This paper ends with implications of the study results. First, from the theoretical perspective this study proposes and empirically validates the commitment as an important mediating factor between motivation and content creativity. This result reflects the characteristics of online environment in which the UCC creation activities occur voluntarily. Second, from the practical perspective this study proposes several concrete reward factors that are germane to the UCC environment, and their effectiveness to the content creativity is estimated. In addition to the quantitive results of relative importance of the reward factrs, this study also proposes concrete ways to provide the rewards in the UCC environment based on the FGI data that are collected after our participants finish asnwering survey questions. Finally, from the methodological perspective, this study suggests and implements a way to measure the UCC content creativity independently from the content generators' creativity, which can be used later by future research on UCC creativity. In sum, this study proposes and validates important reward features and their relations to the motivation, commitment, and the content creativity in UCC environment, which is believed to be one of the most important factors for the success of UCC and Web 2.0. As such, this study can provide significant theoretical as well as practical bases for fostering creativity in UCC contents.