• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.75-98
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• 2021

This paper compares three statistical models that examine the relationship between national and provincespecific fertility rates. The three models are two of the regression models and a cointegration model. The regression model is by substituting Gompit transformation for the cumulative fertility rate by the average for ten years, and this model applies the raw data without transformation of the fertility data. A cointegration model can be considered when fitting the unstable time series of fertility rate in probability process. This paper proposes the following when it is intended to derive the relation of non-stationary fertility rate between the national and provinces. The cointegrated relationship between national and regional fertility rates is first derived. Furthermore, if this relationship is not significant, it is proposed to look at the national and regional fertility rate relationships with a regression model approach using raw data without transformation. Also, the regression model method of substituting Gompit transformation data resulted in an overestimation of fertility rates compared to other methods. Finally, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon and Gyeonggi province are expected to show a total fertility rate of 1.0 or less from 2025 to 2030, so an urgent and efficient policy to raise this level is needed.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.229-263
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• 2019

The Korean fertility rate has been declining rapidly since 2000 with the fertility rate among provinces following a uniform tendency. In particular, the province-specific fertility rate is an essential tool for local governments to prepare local policies for low fertility aging policy, education and welfare policies. However, there is limitation on how to reflect different trends on the province-specific fertility rate because the KOSTAT's (2017) province-specific fertility rate projection estimates information use the national average birth rate date of vital statistics for the last 10 years (5 years). In this study, we propose an improvement plan that simultaneously considers important stable pattern maintenance and provincial fertility rate differentiation for an annual birth rate estimation. The method proposed in this study (proposal 1 and 2) can reflect birth rate changes from past to present and national and provincial differences by age that use time series data of the annual fertility rate. Proposal 3 also reflects the unique fertility rate trend from the past to the present by age according to province regardless of the relationship with the national trend. Therefore, it is preferable to use a relationship to the national rate when predicting the birth rate, as in proposals 1 and 2 because the national and the provincial fertility rate pattern are similar. These proposals show improved stability in terms of age-specific fertility rates.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.209-215
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• 1992

Different from 'Seyokwiryang' (歲易爲良 : fallowing as the best method) which was an agricultural technique of ancient China, fertilization of rice fields was already practiced in the end of Koryo age in Korea. 'Bunjongbeob'(糞種法 : fertilizer applicating method on seed) or 'Bunkwabeob' (糞科法 : fertilizer applicating method on each plant) was practiced before green manure of bean crops and 'Bunjeonbeob'(糞田法 : fertilizer practicing method on fields) were done. In the 15th century 'Dojeonbunjeonbeob'(稻田糞田法 : fertilizer applicating method on paddy) in 'Jikseol' was divided the materials to be used into the soil brought from another place, trees, grasses, and the manure. Also, it discribed the fertilization between first plowing and the second, and proper fertilization for particular soil conditions. In case of transplanting techniques, the fertilization practices were specified into nursery and rice fields, and restoration of organic matter was systemized by plowing for cultivation in the reclaimed areas. In the 17th century, through 'Jikseolbo'($\ulcorner$直說補$\lrcorner$), the habitual practice of Kyungsang province was systemized and 'Bunyangsool'(糞壤術 : technique of fertilization) of 'Jodoangkicheo' (早稻秧基處 : rearing fields of early-ripening rice) was completed. Specific things was the manufacturing and utilizing techniques of 'Bunhoe'(糞灰 : mixture of manure and ash), 'Yohoe'(尿灰 : mixture of urine and ash), and additional fertilizers. In the 18 to 19th century, the materials of fertilization were greatly enlarged to recover the waste lands and to support the reinforcement of soil fertility for increasing the system of two cropping a year. Also, 'Jeobunbeob'(貯糞法 : method of manure storage) and additional fertilization were emphasized, and use of wagons for it was emphasized to improve the theory of fertilization and working efficiency. As mentioned above, limitation of fertilizing materials was conquered by 'Dojeonbunyang'(稻田糞壤 : techniques of practicing fertilizers in paddy) and the system of additional fertilization was established. The fertilization methods were improved with 'Jeobunbeob' due to the theory and recognition necessary for high rates of fertilizers.