• Title/Summary/Keyword: project management system

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How effective has the Wairau River erodible embankment been in removing sediment from the Lower Wairau River?

  • Kyle, Christensen
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.237-237
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    • 2015
  • The district of Marlborough has had more than its share of river management projects over the past 150 years, each one uniquely affecting the geomorphology and flood hazard of the Wairau Plains. A major early project was to block the Opawa distributary channel at Conders Bend. The Opawa distributary channel took a third and more of Wairau River floodwaters and was a major increasing threat to Blenheim. The blocking of the Opawa required the Wairau and Lower Wairau rivers to carry greater flood flows more often. Consequently the Lower Wairau River was breaking out of its stopbanks approximately every seven years. The idea of diverting flood waters at Tuamarina by providing a direct diversion to the sea through the beach ridges was conceptualised back around the 1920s however, limits on resources and machinery meant the mission of excavating this diversion didn't become feasible until the 1960s. In 1964 a 10 m wide pilot channel was cut from the sea to Tuamarina with an initial capacity of $700m^3/s$. It was expected that floods would eventually scour this 'Wairau Diversion' to its design channel width of 150 m. This did take many more years than initially thought but after approximately 50 years with a little mechanical assistance the Wairau Diversion reached an adequate capacity. Using the power of the river to erode the channel out to its design width and depth was a brilliant idea that saved many thousands of dollars in construction costs and it is somewhat ironic that it is that very same concept that is now being used to deal with the aggradation problem that the Wairau Diversion has caused. The introduction of the Wairau Diversion did provide some flood relief to the lower reaches of the river but unfortunately as the Diversion channel was eroding and enlarging the Lower Wairau River was aggrading and reducing in capacity due to its inability to pass its sediment load with reduced flood flows. It is estimated that approximately $2,000,000m^3$ of sediment was deposited on the bed of the Lower Wairau River in the time between the Diversion's introduction in 1964 and 2010, raising the Lower Wairau's bed upwards of 1.5m in some locations. A numerical morphological model (MIKE-11 ST) was used to assess a number of options which led to the decision and resource consent to construct an erodible (fuse plug) bank at the head of the Wairau Diversion to divert more frequent scouring-flows ($+400m^3/s$)down the Lower Wairau River. Full control gates were ruled out on the grounds of expense. The initial construction of the erodible bank followed in late 2009 with the bank's level at the fuse location set to overtop and begin washing out at a combined Wairau flow of $1,400m^3/s$ which avoids berm flooding in the Lower Wairau. In the three years since the erodible bank was first constructed the Wairau River has sustained 14 events with recorded flows at Tuamarina above $1,000m^3/s$ and three of events in excess of $2,500m^3/s$. These freshes and floods have resulted in washout and rebuild of the erodible bank eight times with a combined rebuild expenditure of $80,000. Marlborough District Council's Rivers & Drainage Department maintains a regular monitoring program for the bed of the Lower Wairau River, which consists of recurrently surveying a series of standard cross sections and estimating the mean bed level (MBL) at each section as well as an overall MBL change over time. A survey was carried out just prior to the installation of the erodible bank and another survey was carried out earlier this year. The results from this latest survey show for the first time since construction of the Wairau Diversion the Lower Wairau River is enlarging. It is estimated that the entire bed of the Lower Wairau has eroded down by an overall average of 60 mm since the introduction of the erodible bank which equates to a total volume of $260,000m^3$. At a cost of $$0.30/m^3$ this represents excellent value compared to mechanical dredging which would likely be in excess of $$10/m^3$. This confirms that the idea of using the river to enlarge the channel is again working for the Wairau River system and that in time nature's "excavator" will provide a channel capacity that will continue to meet design requirements.

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Interpretation of Landscape Restoration and Maintenance in Changgyeonggung Palace through the Preservation Principles of Cultural Heritage (문화재 보존원칙으로 본 창경궁 조경 복원정비 양상 해석)

  • Kang, Jae-Ung;So, Hyun-Su
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.15-31
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    • 2022
  • This study interpreted the logical validity of the landscape restoration and maintenance patterns of Changgyeonggung Palace, where modern landscapes coexist. The results of the study are as follows; First, the changes in the landscape restoration and maintenance attitude concerning the Changgyeonggung management organization were identified. With the establishment of the Office of the Imperial Garden, an imperial property was nationalized. The Cultural Heritage Managing Department was opened in 1961, and Changgyeonggung Palace were preserved as designated as historical sites in 1963. An environmental purification was implemented by the Changgyeonggung Office as a follow-up measure for restoration in 1983. As the Cultural Heritage Administration promoted in 1999 and the Royal Palaces and Tombs Center was established in 2019, the palace has been managed professionally as a palace landscape to provide a viewing environment. Second, In the 'Purification Period of Changgyeongwon(1954~1977)', environmental purification was carried out to restore amusement facilities, install facilities for cherry blossom viewing, and develop the place into a national zoo. In the 'Reconstruction Period of Changgyeonggung(1983~1986)', restoring function as an urban park, reserving green areas, the outside space was recreated in the traditional feel, and the forest area was generally maintained. In the 'Supplementation Period of Traditional Landscape Architecture Space(1987~2009)', a uniform green landscape was created with pine trees and various vegetation landscapes centered on the flower beds. In the 'Improvement and Maintenance Period of Viewing Environment(2010~2022), a master plan was reestablished on the premise of utilization, but maintenance has been carried out in a small scale centering on unit space. Third, regarding the validity of the landscape restoration and maintenance, It was found in terms of 'originality' that the recovery of the palace system has not been expanded for over 40 years in existing areas. The 'characteristics of the times', which shows whether multi-layered history was taken into account, Changgyeongwon was excluded from the discussion in the process of setting the base year twice. In terms of 'integrity,' the area of the Grand Greenhouse where the historic states coexists needs a maintenance policy that binds the greenhouse, carpet flower bed, and Chundangji Pond. The 'utility' identified as the utilization of spaces suggests the establishment of a sense of place in the Grand Greenhouse area, which is concentrated with programs different from other areas.

Dressing Effect of Phosphorus Fetilizer on the Growth of Soil Improving Species (비료목생장(肥料木生長)에 미치는 인산비료(燐酸肥料)의 시비효과(施肥效果))

  • Ma, Sang Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.26-36
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    • 1979
  • Through several trials that has done for making the fertilizing-counter plan on the soil improving species, some results have been got as follows; 1. In the non-phosphorus dressing plots soil improving species have very poor survial ratio and show us to be died step by step. It may be resons that root can not make the nodule in case of non-phosphorus dressing and so tree could not absorb the nitrogen nutrient fixed by the nodule. And root competition with the weedy speces for utilizing the nutrient and oxygen in the soil could be reasons when planting in the heavy weedy rooting site. 2. Triple super phosphate, Fused Mg Phosphate and Fused super phosphate have showed the remarkable effects on the growth of soil improving species within 3rd year after planting. But Koreaan tablet fertilizer(9-12-4) for forest purpose have reacted considerably lower effect in comparision with the above powder and grain type phosphorous fertilizer. 3. In case of tablet type fertilizer tree root will have very little phosphorus absorbing surface because phosphorus can be utilized only from the tablet surface and root can not penetrate into the tablet. This my be reson to show the poor dressing reaction of tablet fertilizer but tablet fertilizer has a possibility to be utilized during long years as a sympton in photo 6. So tablet fertilizer can have a recommendation to dress much fertilizer at p]anting year and then tree root can get much more chance for absorbing the phosphorus that could keep the high survival and for utilizing it during many years without after dressing. 4. The granurar and powder type phosphate can develop the dense root mat like photo 8 because of giving the large surface for absorbing the phosphorus and weedy root can approch to the nodule for taking the nitrogen element. So this type seems to present better effect than tablet type to control the soil movement, stem weight as 200g per meter(l meter long${\times}$0.1m width). When added the lime any effect could not be found and rather give the negative effect. So Lespedeza seed sowing and phosphorus dressing system seems us to be very reasonable method for covering the raw material of basket making, fodder and fuel wood supply. 7. Fused Mg phosphate and Fused super phosphate are good fertilizer to the soil improving species and dressing more than 30g per seedling can be recommendable amount. 5. In the unproductive and dry soil with phosphorus fertilizer Robinia pseudoacacia and Alnus firnui can grow more than 2.3m in height at 3rd year and Alnus inokumae have the rapid height growth that is more than 1.8m at 2nd year. Depending on the growth situation like the above example minirotated management has possibilities and rapid covering of erosed land can be done with the soil improving species and phosphorus fertilizer. 6. In the Lespedeza sowing plot with 40g Fused Mg phosphate dressing per meter in the eroded and unproductive forest soil Lespedeza have completely covered this poor land and produced the green.

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Characristics and Management Plans of Myeongwoldae and Myeongwol Village Groves Located in, Jeju (제주 팽림월대(彭林月臺)의 경관특성 및 관리방안)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Hyun-Kyung;Chol, Yung-Hyun;Kahng, Byung-Seon;Kim, Young-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.68-81
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    • 2014
  • This study was conducted to identify the spacialty, to illuminate the existence and values of Myeongwoldae(明月臺) and Forest Myeongwol, and to suggest the sustainable usage, preservation and management plans with the purpose of ecological and cultural landscaping characteristic and value identification. The result of the study is as follows. Castle Myeongwol and Port Myeongwol shows the status of Hallim-eup Myeongwol District which is the administrative center of western Jeju as well as is the fortress. Building Wolgyejeongsa and School Woohakdang, the head temple of education and culture, located in Myeongwol District represents the spaciality of Myeonwol-ri which was the center of education. Stand Myeongwol is one of the most representative Confucian cultural landscapes in Jeju Island and the field of communion with nature where scholars enjoy poetries, nature, changgi(Korean chess), and go in the Joseon Dynasty period. It was found that the current relics of Myeongwoldae was recovered through the maintenance project conducted by Youth Group Myeongwol composed with Hongjong-si(洪鍾時) as the center during the Japanese colonial era in 1931. It seems that the stonework of Myeongwoldae composed of three levels in the order of square, octagon, and circle based on the heaven-man unity theory of Confucianism and the octagon in the middle is the messenger of Cheonwonjibang(天圓地方), in other words, between the square-shaped earth and the circle-shaped sky. It is assumed that both Grand Bridge Myeongwol and Bridge Myeongwol were constructed as arched bridges in early days. Bridge Myeongwol is the only arched bridge remaining in Jeju Island now, which has the modern cultural heritage value. In Forest Myeongwol, 97 taxa of plants were confirmed and in accordance with 'Taxonomic Group and Class Criteria of Floristic Specific Plants', eight taxa were found; Arachniodes aristata of FD IV and Ilex cornuta, Piper kadsura, Litsea japonica, Melia azedarach, Xylosma congestum, Richosanthes kirilowii var. japonica, Dichondra repens, Viburnum odoratissimum var. awabuki of FD III. Otherwise, 14 taxa of naturalized plants including Apium leptophylihum which is imported to Jeju Island only were confirmed. In Forest Myeongwol, 77 trees including 41 Celtis sinensis, 30 Aphananthe aspera, two Wylosma congestum, a Pinus densiflora, a Camellia japonica, a Melia azedarach, and an Ilex cornuta form a colony. Based on the researched data, the preservation and plans of Myeongwoldae and Forest Myeongwol is suggested as follows. Myeongwoldae, Bridge Myeongwol, and Forest Myeongwol should be managed as one integrated division. Bridge Myeongwol, an arched bridge which is hard to be found in Jeju Island is a high-standard stonework requiring long-term preservation plans. Otherwise, Grand Bridge Myeongwol that is exposed to accident risks because of deterioration and needs safety diagnosis requires measures according to the result of precise safety diagnosis. It is desirable to restore it to a two-sluice arched bridge as its initial shape and to preserve and use it as a representative local landmark with Stand Myeongwol. In addition, considering the topophsis based on the analysis result, the current name of Jeju Special Self-Governing Province Monument No. 19 'Myoengwol Hackberry Colony' should change to 'Myeongwol Hackberry-Muku Tree Colony'. In addition, the serial number system which is composed without distinction of hackberry and muku tree should be improved and the regular monitoring of big and old trees, specific plants, and naturalized species is required.

Studies on the Utilization of Woodland for Livestock Farming II. Problem and Its Improvement Followed by the Join Cattle Grazing in king Won Do (임지의 축산적 이용에 관한 연구 제2보. 강원도의 새마을 "소" 임간공동방목사업의 문제점과 개선책)

  • 맹원재;윤익석;유제창;정승헌
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.100-111
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    • 1983
  • The research results reported herein had the objectives to understand and analyze the present problems of saemaeul woodland joint cattle grazing system in Kang Won Do and to take steps of improvement. The study results on actual management conditions, problems analyzed and improvement plan of total 208 joint cattle grazing area which was established 105 area in 1981 and 103 area in 1982 were summarized as follows: 1. the effectiveness of joint cattle grazing projects 1) Average daily weight gain of cattle during joint cattle grazing period was 0.4kg, showing higher daily than the conventional feeding of 0.33kg. 2) Increase of total farm income over the conventional feeding system were \1,031,357,320 during the grazing period from May to October in 1982 by adapting the 208 joint cattle grazing system, of which effectiveness of weight gain was \293,075,300 and labor saving was \543,838,750. 3) According to the results of questionaire investigation from 208 joint cattle grazing area, effectiveness of joint cattle grazing system over the conventional system were (1) labor saving, (2) feed cost saving, (3) reduced diseases, (4) increase of number of feeding, (5) inspiration of joint endeavor, (6) effect of more gain, (7) easiness of feeding and feed cost savings. 2. Problems of joint cattle grazing system. 1) Shortages of grass were a problem at second year of joint cattle grazing period due to the low regrowth rate of wild grass. 2) Proper land for woodland joint cattle grazing is belonging to land of Government ownership and it is very hard to get the permission from office of forestry for cattle grazing purpose. 3) It is also difficult to find a proper time of breeding in grazing area by the difficulty of estrus detection. 4) There are a difficulty to give a proper vaccination and medical examination for the grazing cattle. 3. Improvement plans for woodland joint cattle grazing projects. 1) Obtain sufficient roughages by hoof cultivation and oversowing pasture from the second year of joint cattle grazing period. 2) In order to increase the beef production and to use for a calf production area, Government should arrange that all proper grazing land of Government owned in Kang Won Do convert into woodland joint cattle grazing area. 3) Make a good reproductive record by mixed grazing with a excellent breeding cow in a remote area. And carry out the collective artificial insemination with synchronous puberty induced by injection of puberty stimulation hormone. 4) Make a preventive injection for blackleg, twice medication of fasciola hepatica in a year, and spray and medication of tick insecticide. 4. A policy towards upbringing of woodland joint cattle grazing area. 1) Government should thoroughly investigate about a proper land for woodland joint cattle grazing from all forests. 2) When the area is suitable for the woodland joint cattle grazing, though it is national forest or restricted area, government should make it possible to establish a grazing area. 3) On the proper land foe joint cattle grazing in the remote place, Government should support for the road construction and electric fence equipments by using of national funds. 4) There should be an administrative consideration for well promotion of the project that make woodland joint cattle grazing suitable to the characteristics of Kang Won Do. 5) In order to improve the reproduction record, Government should reform the insufficiency of artificial insemination in the joint cattle grazing area. 6) In order to maintain a proper price of cow, Government should carry out the price plan. 7) When there is any request for grassland formation in the woodland joint cattle grazing area, Government should permit it with preference.

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A Study on Medium-Sized Enterprises of Japan (일본의 중견기업에 관한 연구 : 현황과 특징, 정책을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Cheol Gu;Kim, Hyun Sung;Kim, Hyun Chul
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.209-223
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    • 2010
  • Korea's business is composed of a few large-sized enterprises (which can be abbreviated as LSE) and a majority of small-sized enterprises (SSE). Although there has been a growing recognition of the need for the development of medium-sized enterprises (MSE) which can serve as a link between SSE and LSE, as yet there has not yet been a consensus on the definition, characteristics and the function of the MSE in Korea. Nowadays, the world is being globalized, and Japan and China are in competition to ne a great economic power. While East Asia is experiencing rapid changes, promoting MSE which can secure flexibility and efficiency through covering up the limitation of LSE and SSE is needed in order to respond the global market which is being specialized. The features of MSE in Japan can be listed as follows. First, the MSE in Japan is developing the company through getting into niche markets which are hard for major companies to enter rather than developing markets in order to compete against major companies directly. While MSEs are endeavoring to build the business firmly in the domestic market, they can possess special and competitive technical skills through trials and errors; so that they can get a chance develop their business through independent business system rather than putting their effort to compete against major companies. Second, from the MSEs with competitive edge in the market, there are many contributions to the national exportation. Those MSEs produce in domestic and maintain the quality of high price products which need cutting-edge technology, while they relocate the low and middle priced goods to the country where manufacturing costs are low, so that they can maintain the price competitiveness. Third, the industrial structure in Japan is formed from dual structure between major companies and small sized companies. In other words, in Japan's industrial structure which are composed of subcontract structure, this dual structure has taken a major role of small sized companies' growth and manufacturing businesses' international competitive power. Forth, MSE in Japan adopt a strategy of putting their value on qualitative scale growth rather than quantitative scale growth. In this paper, the case of Japanese MSE is analyzed. Along with its long history of Industrialization, Japan has a corporate environment where the SSEs can develop as a MSE and later a LSE through a full-support system. Among its SSEs, there are a number of world class corporations equipped with a large domestic market, win-win cooperation with the LSEs and an independent technology development. It can also be observed that these SSEs develop into MSEs with sustainable growth potentials. This study will focus on the condition under which the MSEs of Japan have been developed, and how they have survived the competition between SSEs and LSEs. Through this study, this paper attempts to offer solutions to Korea's polarization between the SSE and LSE, while providing the basis for SSEs revitalization. In general, if both extremities phenomenon deepen between LSE and SSE, there are possible fears of occurring disutility in national economy by the monopolization of LSE. For that reason, enterprise group, which can make SSE or MSE compete LSE in some area and ease the monopoly and oligopoly problem, is needed. This awareness has been shared for ages long. Nevertheless, there is no legal definition for MSE in Japan, and there is no definition about the enterprise size or unified view of MSE between scholars, but it is defined differently by each of academical person or research institution and study meeting. For that reason, this paper will organize the definition of MSE in Japan, and then will propose the characteristics of the background which has made MSE secure competitiveness and sustainable growth in global market. This study focus on that because through this process, the positive change to the awareness of MSE can be proposed in Korea and to seek the policy direction for building institutional framework which can make SSE become MES. Through this way, the fundamentals for SSE to become MSE can be managed and some appropriate suggestions which will be able to make MSE enter the global market in the future can also be proposed. Due to these facts, this study is very important and well timed task. In a sense of this way, this study will examine the definition and role of MSE in Japan. after this examination, this study will deal with the status, special feature, and promotion policy for MSE. Through this analysis of MSE in Japan, the foundation which be able to set the desirable role model for MSE in Korea can be proposed. Also, the political implication which is needed to push ahead to contribute to creating employment and economic growth through sustainable growth of MSEs in economic system of Korea can be offered through this study. It has been found that Japan's MSE functions as an indispensable link among various industrial structures by holding a significant position in employment rate, production and value added. Although the MSEs took up less than 1% of the entire number of businesses with 2700 manufacturing firms and 7000 non-manufacturing firms, its employment ratios are about 15%, while taking about 25% of the manufacturing industry's exports. In industries such as machinery and electronics which is considered Japan's major industry, the MSEs showed a higher than average ratio of manufacturing exports and employment rate. It can be analyzed that behind Japan's advantageous industries, close and deeply knit MSEs exist. Although there are no clearly stated policies geared towards the MSEs by the Japanese government, various political measures exist such as the R&D Project and the inducement of cooperation between enterprises which gives room for MSEs to participate in the SSE policies. In relation to these findings, the following practical measures can be considered in order to revitalize Korea's MSEs: First, there is a need for a legal definition of MSE and the incentives to provide legal support for its growth. Second, if a law to support the MSEs is established, it could provide a powerful inducement for the SSE to grow as a MSE, rather than stay as a SSE. Third, there is a need for a strategy of MSEs to establish a stable base in the domestic market and then advance to the global market with the accumulated trial and error and competitiveness. Fourth, the SSE themselves need the spirit of entrepreneurship in order to make the leap to a MSE. Because if nothing is to be changed about the system on the firms that grew, and the parts of the past custom was left to be managed alone, confusion and absence of management can take place. No matter how much tax favors the government will give and no matter how much incentive there could be through the policies, there are limits for industries to higher the ability to propagate. And because of that it is a period where industries need their own innovative skills to reform their firms.

Environmental Interpretation on soil mass movement spot and disaster dangerous site for precautionary measures -in Peong Chang Area- (산사태발생지(山沙汰發生地)와 피해위험지(被害危險地)의 환경학적(環境學的) 해석(解析)과 예방대책(豫防對策) -평창지구(平昌地區)를 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Ma, Sang Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.11-25
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    • 1979
  • There was much mass movement at many different mountain side of Peong Chang area in Kwangwon province by the influence of heavy rainfall through August/4 5, 1979. This study have done with the fact observed through the field survey and the information of the former researchers. The results are as follows; 1. Heavy rainfall area with more than 200mm per day and more than 60mm per hour as maximum rainfall during past 6 years, are distributed in the western side of the connecting line through Hoeng Seong, Weonju, Yeongdong, Muju, Namweon and Suncheon, and of the southern sea side of KeongsangNam-do. The heavy rain fan reason in the above area seems to be influenced by the mouktam range and moving direction of depression. 2. Peak point of heavy rainfall distribution always happen during the night time and seems to cause directly mass movement and serious damage. 3. Soil mass movement in Peongchang break out from the course sandy loam soil of granite group and the clay soil of lime stone and shale. Earth have moved along the surface of both bedrock or also the hardpan in case of the lime stone area. 4. Infiltration seems to be rapid on the both bedrock soil, the former is by the soil texture and the latter is by the crumb structure, high humus content and dense root system in surface soil. 5. Topographic pattern of mass movement spot is mostly the concave slope at the valley head or at the upper part of middle slope which run-off can easily come together from the surrounding slope. Soil profile of mass movement spot has wet soil in the lime stone area and loose or deep soil in the granite area. 6. Dominant slope degree of the soil mass movement site has steep slope, mostly, more than 25 degree and slope position that start mass movement is mostly in the range of the middle slope line to ridge line. 7. Vegetation status of soil mass movement area are mostly fire field agriculture area, it's abandoned grass land, young plantation made on the fire field poor forest of the erosion control site and non forest land composed mainly grass and shrubs. Very rare earth sliding can be found in the big tree stands but mostly from the thin soil site on the un-weatherd bed rock. 8. Dangerous condition of soil mass movement and land sliding seems to be estimated by the several environmental factors, namely, vegetation cover, slope degree, slope shape and position, bed rock and soil profile characteristics etc. 9. House break down are mostly happen on the following site, namely, colluvial cone and fan, talus, foot area of concave slope and small terrace or colluvial soil between valley and at the small river side Dangerous house from mass movement could be interpreted by the aerial photo with reference of the surrounding site condition of house and village in the mountain area 10. As a counter plan for the prevention of mass movement damage the technics of it's risk diagnosis and the field survey should be done, and the mass movement control of prevention should be started with the goverment support as soon as possible. The precautionary measures of house and village protection from mass movement damage should be made and executed and considered the protecting forest making around the house and village. 11. Dangerous or safety of house and village from mass movement and flood damage will be indentified and informed to the village people of mountain area through the forest extension work. 12. Clear cutting activity on the steep granite site, fire field making on the steep slope, house or village construction on the dangerous site and fuel collection in the eroded forest or the steep forest land should be surely prohibited When making the management plan the mass movement, soil erosion and flood problem will be concidered and also included the prevention method of disaster.

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DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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