• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.1762-1766
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• 2006

In order to protect properties and human lives from disasters such as heavy rainfall, rational Probability Maximum Flood(PMF) estimation procedures for existing dam basins are recently required. This study analyzes the Probable Maximum Flood(PMF) as a part of a counterplan for disaster preventions of hydraulic structures such as dams, according to recent unfavorable weather conditions. In this study, an improvement method of parameter estimation was proposed, being estimated as an appropriate method for application to the unit hydrograph, the time of concentration and storage constant corresponding to the discharge of flood were considered differently when estimating PMF in Hoengseong dam basin.

• Proceedings of the Korean Powder Metallurgy Institute Conference
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• 2006.09a
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• pp.332-333
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• 2006

The driving forces and the probable processes of WC-Co grain growth are reanalysed from recent data of interface energy and microstructure. Grain growth is driven by the disappearing of the high energy WC/WC and WC/Co interfaces with habit planes different from {0001}, ${10\bar{1}0}$ and ${11\bar{2}0}$ facets and by the area decrease of the WC/WC and WC/Co interfaces with {0001} and ${10\bar{1}0}$ habit planes. Grain growth mainly results of dissolution-precipitation. Abnormal grains are likely formed by defects assisted nucleation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.539-539
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• 2015

본 논문에서는 과거 호우를 이용하여 우리나라의 가능최대강수량(Probable Maximum Precipitation, PMP)을 산정하고, 기존의 결과와 비교하고자 한다. 1973년부터 2014년까지 190개의 호우를 선정한 후 WMO(2009)에서 사용된 수문기상학적 방법을 이용하여 면적별($25km^2$, $100km^2$, $225km^2$, $400km^2$, $900km^2$, $2025km^2$, $4900km^2$, $10000km^2$, $19600km^2$), 지속시간별(1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48, 72시간)로 우리나라의 PMP를 산정하고 계산된 결과를 바탕으로 한강유역, 낙동강유역, 금강유역, 영산강 유역의 PMP를 추정하였다. 또한 2000년에 산정된 PMP와 비교하여 그 값이 얼마만큼 변화되었는지 비교하였다. 또한 약 15년간의 극한강우 사상의 변화와 이에 따른 PMP 값의 변화에 대한 경향성을 평가해 보았다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.56-56
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• 2022

지속시간 동안 물리적으로 발생 가능한 최대의 강수량으로 정의되는 PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation)를 나타내는 한 가지 방법으로 포락곡선이 있다. 포락곡선은 최대강수량을 지속시간에 대해 도시한 것으로 역사적으로 발생한 극한 강수현상의 특징을 그대로 나타낸다. 오랜 기간 동안 강수 관측이 이루어졌다면 관측자료로부터 직접 포락곡선을 그릴 수 있겠으나, 지금까지 우리나라에서는 통계적 추정 방법을 통해 간접적으로 접근해왔다. 하지만, 강우관측자료가 상당히 누적된 지금에 이르러서는 직접 포락곡선을 도출하는 것이 가능해졌다. 이 연구에서는 50년 이상의 강우관측년도를 보유하고 있는 24개 종관기상관측 지점의 최대강우량을 종합하여 우리나라 기후조건을 대표할 수 있는 포락곡선을 산정하였다. 이번에 산정된 포락곡선을 우리나라 선행연구들에서 제시된 PMP와 비교하였으며, 전세계의 지속시간에 따른 최대강수량을 대표하는 Jennings law와도 비교하였다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.10 s.171
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• pp.823-832
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• 2006

Precipitation is the most important component to the study of water and energy cycle in hydrology. In this study we investigate rainfall retrieval uncertainty from different sources of remotely sensed precipitation field and then probable error propagation in the simulation of hydrologic variables especially, runoff on different vegetation cover. Two remotely sensed rainfall retrievals (space-borne IR-only and ground radar rainfall) are explored and compared visually and statistically. Then, an offline Community Land Model (CLM) is forced with in situ meteorological data to simulate the amount of runoff and determine their impact on model predictions. A fundamental assumption made in this study is that CLM can adequately represent the physical land surface processes. Results show there are big differences between different sources of precipitation fields in terms of the magnitude and temporal variability. The study provides some intuitions on the uncertainty of hydrologic prediction via the interaction between the land surface and near atmosphere fluxes in the modelling approach. Eventually it will contribute to the understanding of water resources redistribution to the climate change in Korean Peninsula.

• Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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• v.7
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• pp.37-49
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• 1996

This study aims at suggesting an alternative to improve flood controling capacity according to the cument design criteria for the existing Soyanggang Multi-purpose Dam which was constructed 20 years ago as the largest dam in Korea. The peak inflow of the adopted probable maximum flood (PMF) at the time of construction was 13,500 $m^3$/s. However, the newly estimated peak inflow of the PMF is 18,000 $m^3$/s which is 1.34 times bigger than the original one. This is considered to be due to the accumulation of the reliable flood and storm event records after construction, and due to the increasing tendency of the local flood peaks according to the influence of world-wide weather change. The new estimation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) was based on the hydro-meteorological method suggested by the guideline of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The unit hydrograph which was applied for the estimation of PMF was derived through linear programming algorithm by minimizing the sum of absolute deviations of the calculated and recorded flood hydrographs. In order to adopt the newly estimated PMF as a design flood, following four alternatives were compared : (1) allocation of more flood control space by lowering the normal high water level, (2) construction of a new spillway in addition to the existing spillway, (3) construction of a new dam which has relevant flood control storage at the upstream of the Soyanggang dam, (4) raising the existing dam crest. The preliminary evaluation of these alternatives resulted in that the second alternative is most economic and feasible. So as to stably cope with the newly estimated PMF by meeting all the current functions of the multipurpose dam, a detailed study of an additional spillway tunnel has to be followed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.139-139
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• 2016

가능최대홍수량(Probable Maximum Flood, PMF)이란 대규모 수공구조물을 설계하고자 할 때 막대한 경제적 손실 및 인명피해 등을 막기 위해 기준으로 삼는 설계홍수량이며, 통계학적으로는 약 10,000년 빈도에 해당된다. 우리나라의 호우 특성은 방위, 진행방향 및 위에 따른 해석이 매우 복잡하여 강우를 정형화하기 어렵다. Kim and Won(2004)은 이동성 호우의 경우 강우의 깊이-면적-지속기간(Rainfall Depth-Area-Duration)의 분석결과에서 상당한 오차를 야기하는 문제점을 지닌다고 주장하였다. 따라서 오차를 포함한 DAD의 산정결과는 가능최대강수량(Probable Maximum Precipitation, PMP) 및 가능최대홍수량 산정에도 영향을 미치기 때문에 정확도 높은 DAD 분석을 통한 PMF 산정이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 유역을 선정하고 각 지점의 시계열 강우 자료를 활용하여 공간분포화한 강우자료에 격자기반의 자동 강우장 탐색기법을 이용하여 DAD 분석을 실시하였다. 기존의 PMP 산정방법에서는 한반도 전역에서 발생했던 130 mm이상의 호우사상을 선정한 후에 각 호우의 범위에 있는 우량관측소의 강우자료를 이용하여 PMP를 산정한다. 그렇기 때문에 만약 상대적으로 긴 지속기간의 경우 호우의 범위가 우리나라 전역을 포함할 가능성이 크기 때문에 PMP 산정방법은 복잡하고, 기상이변이 잦지 않는 지역에서 산정된 PMP를 이용하여 PMF를 산정할 경우, 유역의 특성을 반영하지 않았기 때문에 과대산정의 우려가 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 먼저 연구대상유역을 선정한 뒤, 유역 내에 발생했던 호우경보와 호우주의보를 기준으로 호우사상을 선정하여 DAD 분석 후 PMP를 산정하였다. 그 후, 강우-유출관계를 파악하여 PMF를 산정하였다.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.515-526
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• 2021

The frequency of typhoons and torrential rainfalls has increased due to climate change, and the concurrent risk of breakage of dams and reservoirs has increased due to structural aging. To cope with the risk of dam breakage, a more accurate emergency action plan (EAP) must be established, and more advanced technology must be developed for the prediction of flooding. Hence, the present study proposes a method for establishing a more effective EAP by performing flood and inundation analyses using one- and two-dimensional models. The probable maximum flood (PMF) under the condition of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) was calculated for the target area, namely the Gyeong-cheon reservoir watershed. The breakage scenario of the Gyeong-cheon reservoir was then built up, and breakage simulations were conducted using the dam-break flood forecasting (DAMBRK) model. The results of the outflow analysis at the main locations were used as the basis for the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) flood inundation analyses using the watershed modeling system (WMS) and the FLUvial Modeling ENgine (FLUMEN), respectively. The maximum inundation area between the Daehari-cheon confluence and the Naeseong-cheon location was compared for each model. The 1D flood inundation analysis gave an area of 21.3 km², and the 2D flood inundation analysis gave an area of 21.9 km². Although these results indicate an insignificant difference of 0.6 km² in the inundation area between the two models, it should be noted that one of the main locations (namely, the Yonggung-myeon Administrative and Welfare Center) was not inundated in the 1D (WMS) model but inundated in the 2D (FLUMEN) model.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.139-152
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• 2015

Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and frequency of extreme climate events show unstable tendency of increase. Thus, to comprehend the change characteristics of precipitation data, it is needed to consider non-stationary. The main objectives of this study were to estimate future design floods for Wonpyeongcheon watershed based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario. Wonpyeongcheon located in the Keum River watershed was selected as the study area. Historical precipitation data of the past 35 years (1976~2010) were collected from the Jeonju meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP4.5 were also obtained for the period of 2011~2100. Systematic bias between observed and simulated data were corrected using the quantile mapping (QM) method. The parameters for the bias-correction were estimated by non-parametric method. A non-stationary frequency analysis was conducted with moving average method which derives change characteristics of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution parameters. Design floods for different durations and frequencies were estimated using rational formula. As the result, the GEV parameters (location and scale) showed an upward tendency indicating the increase of quantity and fluctuation of an extreme precipitation in the future. The probable rainfall and design flood based on non-stationarity showed higher values than those of stationarity assumption by 1.2%~54.9% and 3.6%~54.9%, respectively, thus empathizing the necessity of non-stationary frequency analysis. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to analyze the impacts of climate change and to reconsider the future design criteria of Wonpyeongcheon watershed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.679-690
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• 1997

The risk assessment model for hydrlolgic safety analysis of dam and levee in developed by using Monte-Carlo and AFOSM (Advanced First-Order Second-Moment) method. The fault tree analysis and four phases approach are presented for the safety eveluation of risk of dam and levee. The risk model consists of rainfall-runoff analysis, reservoir routing and channel routing considering the variations in the model parameter. For the rainfall-runoff analysis, KRRL method is adopted with 200-year precipitation and PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation). Reservoir routing is performed by fourth order Runge-Kutta method and channel routing by standard step method. The suggested model will contribute to safety evaluation of dam and levee and their rehabilitation decision problem.