• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability.statistics

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Evaluation of extreme rainfall estimation obtained from NSRP model based on the objective function with statistical third moment (통계적 3차 모멘트 기반의 목적함수를 이용한 NSRP 모형의 극치강우 재현능력 평가)

  • Cho, Hemie;Kim, Yong-Tak;Yu, Jae-Ung;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.545-556
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    • 2022
  • It is recommended to use long-term hydrometeorological data for more than the service life of the hydraulic structures and water resource planning. For the purpose of expanding rainfall data, stochastic simulation models, such as Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (BLRP) and Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse (NSRP) models, have been widely used. The optimal parameters of the model can be estimated by repeatedly comparing the statistical moments defined through a combination of parameters of the probability distribution in the optimization context. However, parameter estimation using relatively small observed rainfall statistics corresponds to an ill-posed problem, leading to an increase in uncertainty in the parameter estimation process. In addition, as shown in previous studies, extreme values are underestimated because objective functions are typically defined by the first and second statistical moments (i.e., mean and variance). In this regard, this study estimated the parameters of the NSRP model using the objective function with the third moment and compared it with the existing approach based on the first and second moments in terms of estimation of extreme rainfall. It was found that the first and second moments did not show a significant difference depending on whether or not the skewness was considered in the objective function. However, the proposed model showed significantly improved performance in terms of estimation of design rainfalls.

Water Quality Assessment and Turbidity Prediction Using Multivariate Statistical Techniques: A Case Study of the Cheurfa Dam in Northwestern Algeria

  • ADDOUCHE, Amina;RIGHI, Ali;HAMRI, Mehdi Mohamed;BENGHAREZ, Zohra;ZIZI, Zahia
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.563-573
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    • 2022
  • This work aimed to develop a new equation for turbidity (Turb) simulation and prediction using statistical methods based on principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression (MLR). For this purpose, water samples were collected monthly over a five year period from Cheurfa dam, an important reservoir in Northwestern Algeria, and analyzed for 12 parameters, including temperature (T°), pH, electrical conductivity (EC), turbidity (Turb), dissolved oxygen (DO), ammonium (NH4+), nitrate (NO3-), nitrite (NO2-), phosphate (PO43-), total suspended solids (TSS), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) and chemical oxygen demand (COD). The results revealed a strong mineralization of the water and low dissolved oxygen (DO) content during the summer period. High levels of TSS and Turb were recorded during rainy periods. In addition, water was charged with phosphate (PO43-) in the whole period of study. The PCA results revealed ten factors, three of which were significant (eigenvalues >1) and explained 75.5% of the total variance. The F1 and F2 factors explained 36.5% and 26.7% of the total variance, respectively and indicated anthropogenic pollution of domestic agricultural and industrial origin. The MLR turbidity simulation model exhibited a high coefficient of determination (R2 = 92.20%), indicating that 92.20% of the data variability can be explained by the model. TSS, DO, EC, NO3-, NO2-, and COD were the most significant contributing parameters (p values << 0.05) in turbidity prediction. The present study can help with decision-making on the management and monitoring of the water quality of the dam, which is the primary source of drinking water in this region.

Exploring the Reliability of an Assessment based on Automatic Item Generation Using the Multivariate Generalizability Theory (다변량일반화가능도 이론을 적용한 자동문항생성 기반 평가에서의 신뢰도 탐색)

  • Jinmin Chung;Sungyeun Kim
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.211-224
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest how to investigate the reliability of the assessment, which consists of items generated by automatic item generation using empirical example data. To achieve this, we analyzed the illustrative assessment data by applying the multivariate generalizability theory, which can reflect the design of responding to different items for each student and multiple error sources in the assessment score. The result of the G-study showed that, in most designs, the student effect corresponding to the true score of the classical test theory was relatively large after residual effects. In addition, in the design where the content domain was fixed, the ranking of students did not change depending on the item types or items. Similarly, in the design where the item format was fixed, the difficulty showed little variation depending on the content domains. The result of the D-study indicated that the original assessment data achieved a sufficient level of reliability. It was also found that higher reliability than the original assessment data could be obtained by reducing the number of items in the content domains of operation, geometry, and probability and statistics, or by assigning higher weights to the domains of letters and formulas, and function. The efficient measurement conditions presented in this study are limited to the illustrative assessment data. However, the method applied in this study can be utilized to determine the reliability and to find efficient measurement conditions for the various assessment situations using automatic item generation based on measurement traits.

Estimation of Road Crash Reduction by Installing Automatic Emergency Braking Systems for Elderly Drivers (자동긴급제동장치의 고령운전자 추돌사고 감소 효과 추정)

  • Sangjin Han;Eunwoo Kim;Hyoseok Jang;Jongwan Joo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.161-171
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    • 2023
  • It is largely agreed that elderly drivers (over 64 years) are more likely to cause fatal crashes than other age groups. According to national road crash statistics 2021, the number of road fatalities per 10,000 drivers over 64 years old was 1.77, while that of drivers in their 30s was 0.55. This indicates a 2.67 times higher probability of causing crashes among the former than the latter. The current study estimates how rear-end crashes may be reduced by installing Automatic Emergency Braking Systems (AEBS), particularly for elderly drivers. We analyzed data from Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance. The results show that the Odds Ratio of rear-end crash occurrence between vehicles with AEBS and without AEBS is 0.75, implying there were lesser rear-end crashes in the vehicles installed with AEBS. The Odds Ratio of male drivers was determined to be 0.78, which was lesser than the 0.81 Odds Ratio obtained for female drivers. Elderly drivers who had installed AEBS in their vehicles showed an Odds Ratio of 0.76, implying crash reduction. In particular, the Odds Ratio of male elderly drivers was found to be the lowest at 0.49. We believe incentivizing by giving discounted insurance premiums to the elderly who drive vehicles installed with AEBS will help reduce rear-end crashes.

HSE System Safety Management Using Wearable Based on Accident Scenario of High Place Work (고소작업 사고 시나리오 기반 웨어러블 응용 HSE 시스템 안전관리 방안)

  • Cho, Yun-Jeong;Im, Ki-Chang;Lim, Dong-Sun;Park, Jeong-Ho;Kim, Jong-Myon
    • Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.417-425
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    • 2018
  • This paper proposes a safety management method that extracts ETA (event tree analysis) based scenario and combines ICT technology to reduce serious disasters occurring workplace for shipbuilding and offshore plant. The statistics of Safety and Health Agency and (previous)Ministry of Public Safety and Security show that the most frequent accident among the serious disasters related to shipbuilding and offshore plant is falling. The main cause of accidents is absence of a safety belt and safety belt ring. To solve these problems, we create ETA based scenarios to derive results based on safety considerations. Based on these results, we propose a solution by applying ICT technology for accident prevention. Deriving ETA based scenarios and ICT technology, the proposed solutions include a system for detecting the wearing of safety belts and safety helmets, a system for detecting whether or not the safety belts are connected, and a hook system for measuring safety distances. These safety related systems can reduce the probability of death of workers. By preventing accidents using the proposed method, we can reduce serious disasters in shipbuilding and offshore plant and establish systematic safety management.

Improving the Classification of Population and Housing Census with AI: An Industry and Job Code Study

  • Byung-Il Yun;Dahye Kim;Young-Jin Kim;Medard Edmund Mswahili;Young-Seob Jeong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we propose an AI-based system for automatically classifying industry and occupation codes in the population census. The accurate classification of industry and occupation codes is crucial for informing policy decisions, allocating resources, and conducting research. However, this task has traditionally been performed by human coders, which is time-consuming, resource-intensive, and prone to errors. Our system represents a significant improvement over the existing rule-based system used by the statistics agency, which relies on user-entered data for code classification. In this paper, we trained and evaluated several models, and developed an ensemble model that achieved an 86.76% match accuracy in industry and 81.84% in occupation, outperforming the best individual model. Additionally, we propose process improvement work based on the classification probability results of the model. Our proposed method utilizes an ensemble model that combines transfer learning techniques with pre-trained models. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential for AI-based systems to improve the accuracy and efficiency of population census data classification. By automating this process with AI, we can achieve more accurate and consistent results while reducing the workload on agency staff.

A Study on Transition to Retirement of the Middle-Aged in Korea: Focused on the Career Job and the Bridge Job (우리나라 중·고령자의 은퇴 과정에 관한 연구: 생애주된일자리와 가교일자리를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Okgeum
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.15-31
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the transition to retirement of the middle-aged in Korea according to the notion of "the career job" and "the bridge job". In order to scrutinize basic elements for the transition, three aspects such as the job history of the middle-aged, the characteristics of the demographic and economic status were investigated through the one to three wave of Korean Retirement and Income Study(KReIS). In addition, the characteristics of the career job and the bridge job were analyzed by both descriptive statistics and the conditional transition probability. Moreover, the influential factors to the job status of the middle-aged were examined by the multi-nominal logistic regression. The results of the study are as followed: first, gradual retirement is increasing in the transition to retirement of the middle-aged in Korea. Over time, the career job is decreasing whilst bridge job is increasing. However, the quality of the bridge job is poorer than the career job in terms of wage, employment status, industry, and occupation. Lastly, the middle-aged who work in the bridge job have vulnerable characteristics, so they work in the bridge job to supplement their economic needs. The results can be influential in the adjustment of the labor policies for the middle-aged in Korea. Moreover, the partial pension system could be a good alternative since the pension system is needed to protect the vulnerable situation of the middle-aged in Korea.

A Study on the Spatial Configuration in the Metaverse - Focusing on Communication Game Virtual Worlds's 'Animal Crossing' - (메타버스에서의 공간 형태 구성에 관한 연구 - 커뮤니케이션 게임 가상세계 '모여봐요 동물의 숲'을 중심으로 -)

  • Yu, Yeon Seo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2024
  • Alvin Toffler mentioned that it is important for future society to keep pace with synchronization and that time deviations can hinder social development. As we experience the new normal era of untact, we have experienced an increase in non-face-to-face contact and accelerated digital transformation. Amid these rapid changes, we can maintain the need for synchronization or change in space. Therefore, we would like to study what kind of settlements people create and choose. We looked at the metaverse as an object that could indirectly find out about this, and used the content called "Animal Crossing" to collect data related to the spatial form of the metaverse. Sampling utilized a judgment sampling method during non-probability sampling to alleviate differences due to the progress of the game. The collected data was classified according to floor plan and location type and briefly organized through descriptive statistics. After matching each facility by use, data was constructed by setting coordinates for each cluster and listing them. This data was interpreted graphically on the coordinate plane for each cluster, and Euclidean analysis was performed to analyze the relationships between clusters and residential choice using a Euclidean matrix. As a result of the analysis, it could be interpreted that efficiency was pursued by arranging similar functions in close proximity. Nevertheless, when choosing a residence, it was interpreted that the intention was to create a community through arrangement adjacent to residents rather than efficiency or convenience. Due to the differences between the metaverse and the real world, it is expected that there will be limitations in equating it with reality. However, through the space expressed in the virtual world by people who are far away from the constraints of reality, we can indirectly know the wishes that we have not been able to express due to our lack of awareness.

Imaging of Facial Nerve With 3D-DESS-WE-MRI Before Parotidectomy: Impact on Surgical Outcomes

  • Han-Sin Jeong;Yikyung Kim;Hyung-Jin Kim;Hak Jung, Kim;Eun-hye Kim;Sook-young Woo;Man Ki Chung;Young-Ik Son
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.9
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    • pp.860-870
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    • 2023
  • Objective: The intra-parotid facial nerve (FN) can be visualized using three-dimensional double-echo steady-state water-excitation sequence magnetic resonance imaging (3D-DESS-WE-MRI). However, the clinical impact of FN imaging using 3D-DESS-WE-MRI before parotidectomy has not yet been explored. We compared the clinical outcomes of parotidectomy in patients with and without preoperative 3D-DESS-WE-MRI. Materials and Methods: This prospective, non-randomized, single-institution study included 296 adult patients who underwent parotidectomy for parotid tumors, excluding superficial and mobile tumors. Preoperative evaluation with 3D-DESS-WE-MRI was performed in 122 patients, and not performed in 174 patients. FN visibility and tumor location relative to FN on 3D-DESS-WE-MRI were evaluated in 120 patients. Rates of FN palsy (FNP) and operation times were compared between patients with and without 3D-DESS-WE-MRI; propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were used to adjust for surgical and tumor factors. Results: The main trunk, temporofacial branch, and cervicofacial branch of the intra-parotid FN were identified using 3D-DESS-WE-MRI in approximately 97.5% (117/120), 44.2% (53/120), and 25.0% (30/120) of cases, respectively. The tumor location relative to FN, as assessed on magnetic resonance imaging, concurred with surgical findings in 90.8% (109/120) of cases. Rates of temporary and permanent FNP did not vary between patients with and without 3D-DESS-WE-MRI according to PSM (odds ratio, 2.29 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.64-8.25] and 2.02 [95% CI: 0.32-12.90], respectively) and IPTW (odds ratio, 1.76 [95% CI: 0.19-16.75] and 1.94 [95% CI: 0.20-18.49], respectively). Conversely, operation time for surgical identification of FN was significantly shorter with 3D-DESS-WE-MRI (median, 25 vs. 35 min for PSM and 25 vs. 30 min for IPTW, P < 0.001). Conclusion: Preoperative FN imaging with 3D-DESS-WE-MRI facilitated anatomical identification of FN and its relationship to the tumor during parotidectomy. This modality reduced operation time for FN identification, but did not significantly affect postoperative FNP rates.

Cavitation signal detection based on time-series signal statistics (시계열 신호 통계량 기반 캐비테이션 신호 탐지)

  • Haesang Yang;Ha-Min Choi;Sock-Kyu Lee;Woojae Seong
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.400-405
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    • 2024
  • When cavitation noise occurs in ship propellers, the level of underwater radiated noise abruptly increases, which can be a critical threat factor as it increases the probability of detection, particularly in the case of naval vessels. Therefore, accurately and promptly assessing cavitation signals is crucial for improving the survivability of submarines. Traditionally, techniques for determining cavitation occurrence have mainly relied on assessing acoustic/vibration levels measured by sensors above a certain threshold, or using the Detection of Envelop Modulation On Noise (DEMON) method. However, technologies related to this rely on a physical understanding of cavitation phenomena and subjective criteria based on user experience, involving multiple procedures, thus necessitating the development of techniques for early automatic recognition of cavitation signals. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that automatically detects cavitation occurrence based on simple statistical features reflecting cavitation characteristics extracted from acoustic signals measured by sensors attached to the hull. The performance of the proposed technique is evaluated depending on the number of sensors and model test conditions. It was confirmed that by sufficiently training the characteristics of cavitation reflected in signals measured by a single sensor, the occurrence of cavitation signals can be determined.