• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability theory

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An efficient method using the modified view factor for estimating the molecular backscattering probability in the space conditions (Modified View Factor를 이용한 인공위성 분자오염 역류확률 예측법)

  • Lee, Jin-Won;Lee, Jae-Dal;Yi, Min-Young;Han, Dong-In;Lee, Chang-Ho;Lee, S.-R.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 2005
  • Satellite contamination from back-scattered molecules has long been analyzed using the BGK theory or the DSMC technique which are rather inefficient in that they are complicated or take a long time in the analysis. This study presents a new technique of estimating the back-scattering contamination, which is very simple and easy to use like the view factor method and also very accurate. This method, called the modified view factor method, is equivalent to the DSMC in so far as the molecular thermal velocity is much smaller than the satellite velocity and the mean free path much longer than the satellite.

An assessment of the effect of hull girder vibration on the statistical characteristics of wave loads

  • Ogawa, Yoshitaka;Takagi, Ken
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.80-85
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    • 2011
  • For the assessment of statistical characteristics of wave loads in the real sea state, the probability distribution of wave loads are computed based on the sufficient duration of computations in irregular waves. First of all, the estimation of wave impact loads is well modified applying the displacement potential formulation, which was proposed by one of authors, for solving Wagner's flow model. Consequently, the present computation method is also modified. Prior to the computation in irregular waves, preliminary computation to determine the adequate number of realization of irregular waves is examined. The effect of hull girder vibration on the statistical characteristics is examined by means of the computation with/without hull girder vibration. It is found that hull girder vibration has a certain effect on the probability of occurrence of wave loads. Furthermore, computations taking account of the effect of operation, that is the effects of ship speed and course change, is conducted for the rational evaluation of the effects of hull girder vibration. It is clarified that the effect of operation on the statistical characteristics of wave loads is significant. It is verified that the evaluation without the effect of operation may overestimate the effect of hull girder vibration.

The Development of Condition Degradation Model of Railway PC Beam Bridge Using Transition Probability (철도 PC Beam교량의 전이확률을 이용한 상태저하 모델개발)

  • Kwon, Se-Gon;Park, Mi-Yun;Kim, Do-Kie;Jin, Nam-Hee;Ku, So-Yeun
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2009
  • Recently, as a method of green-development and reduction of carbon dioxide emission, increased interest has been focused on a railway. Furthermore, an intensive study has been processed on capabilities of maintenance activities, economic efficiency of maintenance on rail structure and a design of railway structure as well as the development of materials. The purpose of this paper is to develop a deteriorated model of PC Beam Bridge due to timely changes and maintenance activities. Typically, there is definite difference between maintained bridges and non-maintained bridges. As a result of proper maintenance activity, a life time of a structure can be enhanced. In this study, we will research and analyze structures with ongoing maintenance. We will also process same procedures on structures without maintenance. Therefore, we can establish the significant role in a conditional change of a structure. Based on a study, we accomplish the development of a condition-deteriorated model. To develop deteriorated model of PC Beam Bridge, We apply Marcov Theory and develop a transition probability to show the life time of bridge. This study will provide a great benefit to decision making for maintenance activities on the railway bridges for future.

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THEORY OF BACKGROUND NOISE CANCELLATION ON PREDICTION OF RESPONSE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR AN ARBITRARY SOUND WALL SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION TO ACTUAL SOUND WALL SYSTEMS

  • Ohta, M.;Takaki, N.
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1994.06a
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    • pp.740-745
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    • 1994
  • In the actual situation of measuring the environmental noise, it is very often that only the resultant phenomenon fluctuation contaminated by the additional noise of arbitrary distribution type can be observed. Furthermore, the observed data is usually given in a sound level form the purpose of estimating only the undisturbed objective output response, some estimation method is necessary to reasonably remove the effect of the above additional noise. In this paper, first, a mathematical model of arbitrary sound insulation systems is introduced in the form of a linear system on intensity scale, by using the well-known additive property of energy quantities. Next, some estimation method of the output response under the existence of background noise is derived. Then, based on the expression of the above estimation method, a new prediction method of only the output response probability function form for arbitrary sound insulation systems without. a background noise is proposed by use of observed data contaminated by a background noise. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed experimentally too by applying it to the actual various type sound wall systems.

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An Analysis on the Identification Rate of Detection System Using Non-Homogeneous Discrete Absorbing Markov Chains (비 동질성 이산시간 흡수마코프체인을 활용한 탐지체계의 식별률 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Woo;Yoon, Bong-Kyoo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of airborne radars is to detect and identify approaching targets as early as possible. If the targets are identified as enemies, detection systems must provide defense systems with information of the targets to counter. Though many previous studies based on the detection theory of the target have shown various ways to derive detection probability of each radar, optimal arrangement of radars for effective detection, and determination of the search pattern, they did not reflect the fact that most military radar sites run multiple radars in order to increase the accuracy of identifications by radars. In this paper, we propose a model to analyze the probability of identification generated by the multiple radars using non-homogeneous absorbing markov chains. Our results are expected to help the military commanders counter the enemy targets effectively by using radars in a way to maximize the identification rate of targets.

Deriving a New Divergence Measure from Extended Cross-Entropy Error Function

  • Oh, Sang-Hoon;Wakuya, Hiroshi;Park, Sun-Gyu;Noh, Hwang-Woo;Yoo, Jae-Soo;Min, Byung-Won;Oh, Yong-Sun
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 2015
  • Relative entropy is a divergence measure between two probability density functions of a random variable. Assuming that the random variable has only two alphabets, the relative entropy becomes a cross-entropy error function that can accelerate training convergence of multi-layer perceptron neural networks. Also, the n-th order extension of cross-entropy (nCE) error function exhibits an improved performance in viewpoints of learning convergence and generalization capability. In this paper, we derive a new divergence measure between two probability density functions from the nCE error function. And the new divergence measure is compared with the relative entropy through the use of three-dimensional plots.

Prediction of Extreme Design Wave Height (극한 설계 파고의 추정)

  • Chon, Y.K.;Ha, T.B.
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 1996
  • In this study, the technique to evaluate the extreme design wave height of certain return period is developed from the given measured or hindcasted sea state data of concerned area for limited period. By using the order statistics and Monte Carlo Simulation method, the best fit probability distribution function with proper parameters describing the given wave height data is chosen, from which extreme design wave height can be predicted by extrapolation to the desired return period. The fitness and the confidence limit of the chosen probability function are also discussed. Application calculation is carried out for the wave height data given by applying the Wilson wave model theory to major 50 typhoon wind data affecting Korean South coast during the year from 1938 to 1987.

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Bayesian structural damage detection of steel towers using measured modal parameters

  • Lam, Heung-Fai;Yang, Jiahua
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.935-956
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    • 2015
  • Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of steel towers has become a hot research topic. From the literature, it is impractical and impossible to develop a "general" method that can detect all kinds of damages for all types of structures. A practical method should make use of the characteristics of the type of structures and the kind of damages. This paper reports a feasibility study on the use of measured modal parameters for the detection of damaged braces of tower structures following the Bayesian probabilistic approach. A substructure-based structural model-updating scheme, which groups different parts of the target structure systematically and is specially designed for tower structures, is developed to identify the stiffness distributions of the target structure under the undamaged and possibly damaged conditions. By comparing the identified stiffness distributions, the damage locations and the corresponding damage extents can be detected. By following the Bayesian theory, the probability model of the uncertain parameters is derived. The most probable model of the steel tower can be obtained by maximizing the probability density function (PDF) of the model parameters. Experimental case studies were employed to verify the proposed method. The contributions of this paper are not only on the proposal of the substructure-based Bayesian model updating method but also on the verification of the proposed methodology through measured data from a scale model of transmission tower under laboratory conditions.

The probabilistic Analysis of Degree of Consolidation by Spatial Variability of Cv (압밀계수의 공간변동성에 따른 압밀도의 확률론적 해석)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Son, Young-Hwan;Noh, Soo-Kack;Park, Jae-Sung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2012
  • Soil properties are not random values which is represented by mean and standard deviation but show spatial correlation. Especially, soils are highly variable in their properties and rarely homogeneous. Thus, the accuracy and reliability of probabilistic analysis results is decreased when using only one random variable as design parameter. In this paper, to consider spatial variability of soil property, one-dimensional random fields of coefficient of consolidation ($C_v$) were generated based on a Karhunen-Loeve expansion. A Latin hypercube Monte Calro simulation coupled with finite difference method for Terzaghi's one dimensional consolidation theory was then used to probabilistic analysis. The results show that the failure probability is smaller when consider spatial variability of $C_v$ than not considered and the failure probability increased when the autocorrelation distance increased. Thus, the uncertainty of soil can be overestimated when spatial variability of soil property is not considered, and therefore, to perform a more accurate probabilistic analysis, spatial variability of soil property needed to be considered.

Performance Analysis of Multimedia-Oriented Error Controll Mechanism over ATM Networks (ATM 상에서 멀티미디어 지향 오류 제어 기법의 성능 분석)

  • Choe, Won-Geun;An, Sun-Sin
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.26 no.7
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    • pp.827-838
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    • 1999
  • 멀티미디어 통신에서 통신 성능에 관련된 요구 사항들은 QoS 매개 변수들로서 서술된다. QoS매개 변수들에서 중요한 매개 변수 중의 하나가 전송 신뢰성이다. QoS 매개 변수로서의 신뢰성은 오류 감지, 보고 그리고 정정 기법으로 정의된다. 하지만 기존의 오류 제어 기법들은 멀티미디어 데이타의 통합된 관점을 고려하지 않았다. 그래서 우리는 MEC(multimedia-oriented error control)라고 명명된 오류 제어 기법을 제안하였다. 1 본 논문에서는 MEC기법의 성능을 조사 하였다. 성능평가 결과는 MEC기법이 기존의 오류 제어 기법보다도 낮은 전송지연(lower delay)과 호손율(blocking probability) 을 갖는다는 것을 볼 수 있었다. 결국 제안된 MEC기법은 수송 프로토콜에게 유연성과 높은 성능을 갖도록 해준다.Abstract Communication performance requirements are described as QoS parameters in multimedia communication. One of the important QoS parameters is the reliability of the transfer. As a QoS parameter, the reliability defines error detection, report and correction mechanisms. Conventional error control mechanisms, however, do not consider the integrated viewpoint of multimedia data. So we have proposed the MEC(multimedia-oriented error control). 1 In this paper, we have investigated the performance evaluation of the MEC. The results show that the MEC mechanism provides lower transfer delay and blocking probability than those of the conventional error recovery mechanism. Therefore, the proposed MEC mechanism makes the transport protocol have the flexibility and high performance.