• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability theory

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Optimum Design Criteria of Steel Structure members based on ETCM (ETCM에 의한 강구조부재의 최적설계규준)

  • 이증빈;박주원
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.277-287
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    • 1996
  • Based on the developments of the reliability-based steel structural analysis and design as well as the extending knowledgy on the probabilitic characteristics of loading and resistance the probability based design criteria have been successful Iy developed for many students. The existing design codes, which are genarally based on the structural theory and certain engineering experience, do not realistically consider the uncertainties of loads and resistance and the basic reliability concepts. It is recognized to develope the design criteria by ETCM(Expected Total cost Minimization). In this study, therefore, the proper probability based design criteria (Optimum load and resistance factor design formats ) has been developed based on the safety levels observed from calibration Iii th existing standards, which applies to the ultimate limit states of steel structural members.

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An SDN based hopping multicast communication against DoS attack

  • Zhao, Zheng;Liu, Fenlin;Gong, Daofu
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.2196-2218
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    • 2017
  • Multicast communication has been widely used in the Internet. However, multicast communication is vulnerable to DoS attack due to static router configuration. In this paper, HMC, a hopping multicast communication method based on SDN, is proposed to tackle this problem. HMC changes the multicast tree periodically and makes it difficult for the attackers to launch an accurate attack. It also decreases the probability of multicast communication being attacked by DoS and in the meanwhile, the QoS constrains are not violated. In this research, the routing problem of HMC is proven to be NP-complete and a heuristic algorithm is proposed to solve it. Experiments show that HMC has the ability to resist DoS attack on multicast route effectively. Theoretically, the multicast compromised probability can drop more than 0.6 when HMC is adopt. In addition, experiments demonstrate that HMC achieves shorter average multicast delay and better robustness compared with traditional method, and more importantly, it better defends DoS attack.

A Study on the 3-Dimensional Spatial Visibility Features Reflecting the Path use Behaviour (경로이용행태를 가중한 공간의 3차원 시지각 특성 분석기술)

  • Kim, Suk-Tae
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.108-116
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    • 2015
  • The probability of visual perception occurrence varies in case the expectation of using each unit space of which the whole space consists because the size of space subject to analysis is very large or the organization is complicated in the analysis of spatial visual configuration. Therefore, it is necessary to compensate space analysis and index measurement by applying weight to the point of view for the probability of experiencing space. This study proposed a method of analyzing visibility ratio by applying the integration of space syntax theory as weight, and grasped the effect in comparison with the visibility ratio when weight was not applied.

Reliability Evaluation of Multi-Stage Gear Drive (다단 기어장치의 신뢰성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Chong Tae-Hyong;Kim Young-Ju;Park Seung-Hyun
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.16-23
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    • 2006
  • Recently the design of multi-stage gear drive is being highly concerned. Until now, since the researches of gear drive are focused on the design for satisfying safety factor, the reliability evaluation of multi-stage gear drive is not included. In this paper, the life and reliability models of multi-stage gear drive are proposed using methods of probability and statistics. The life and reliability of the multi-stage gear drive have been evaluated, which is based on the life and reliability of each stage gear drive. The pinion and gear lives of each stage are calculated using the Lundberg-Palmgren theory and the Weibull failure distribution. These lives are combined using methods of probability and statistics to produce a life and reliability model of multi-stage gear drive.

A Study on The Assesment of Power Improvement Effectiveness of Corps Level C4I System Applied to Integrated Fire Operation (지상전술 C4I체계의 통합화력운용간 전투력 상승효과 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 박송기;이재영
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.8-27
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    • 2003
  • This paper develops a methodology that can be used to quantify the assesment of power improvement effectiveness of corps level C4I system applied to integrated fire operation by adapting Schuzer's C2 theory. This paper first describes how C4I systers can enhance the battle outcome in three way. : (1) Enhanced unit probability of survival; (2) Enhanced unit's individual effectiveness; improved exchange ratios; (3) Improved task force allocations : increased percentage of assets that can be assigned to a given engagement These enhancements are then show to result from improved probability of detection through information sharing; improved survivability and lethality through battle force coordination; and enhanced force allocation and prepositioning through improved timeliness of information(more advanced warning). It demonstrates that well-designed C4I systems can be shown to represent a significant force multiplier on the outcome of the battle.

A Study on the Information Asymmetry among Cryptocurrency Traders (암호화폐 거래자 사이에 형성되는 정보 비대칭 현상에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Minjung;Cha, Sangmi
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2019
  • As users' interests of cryptocurrency has been increased, investment volume of it also increases. In the cryptocurrency market, it cannot always be distributed homogenous information to all investors, similar to the stock market because it reflects the characteristics of a market microstructure. Cryptocurrency traders, thus, like stock investors, can experience the information asymmetry in the market and cannot but help to depend on private information. The purpose of this study is to estimate the trading intensity of informed traders and uninformed traders among cryptocurrency investors around the world based on PIN (Probability of Informed Trading). We have an aim to compare the difference of information asymmetry according to the ten types of cryptocurrency. The results of this study are expected to prevent the continuous increase of suspicious transactions related to cryptocurrency and contribute to the development of a sound cryptocurrency market.

Estimation to improve survey efficiency in callback (재조사에서 효율 향상을 위한 추정법 연구)

  • Park, Hyeonah;Na, Seongryong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.377-385
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    • 2015
  • After performing callback for nonresponses in sample survey, we present an estimator of regression form using an auxiliary variable and a variance estimator using replicate method. Parametric inference method of the response probability is also presented. We research an unbiased estimator of high efficiency for the population mean and a variance estimator with consistency under callback. We also prove the validity of the theory through the simulation.

The Convergence Characteristics of The Time- Averaged Distortion in Vector Quantization: Part I. Theory Based on The Law of Large Numbers (벡터 양자화에서 시간 평균 왜곡치의 수렴 특성 I. 대수 법칙에 근거한 이론)

  • 김동식
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
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    • v.33B no.7
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    • pp.107-115
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    • 1996
  • The average distortio of the vector quantizer is calcualted using a probability function F of the input source for a given codebook. But, since the input source is unknown in geneal, using the sample vectors that is realized from a random vector having probability function F, a time-average opeation is employed so as to obtain an approximation of the average distortion. In this case the size of the smple set should be large so that the sample vectors represent true F reliably. The theoretical inspection about the approximation, however, is not perfomed rigorously. Thus one might use the time-average distortion without any verification of the approximation. In this paper, the convergence characteristics of the time-average distortions are theoretically investigated when the size of sample vectors or the size of codebook gets large. It has been revealed that if codebook size is large enough, then small sample set is enough to obtain the average distortion by approximatio of the calculated tiem-averaged distortion. Experimental results on synthetic data, which are supporting the analysis, are also provided and discussed.

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Reliability analysis of shallow tunnel with surface settlement

  • Yang, X.L.;Li, W.T.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.313-326
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    • 2017
  • Based on the reliability theory and limit analysis method, the roof stability of a shallow tunnel is investigated under the condition of surface settlement. Nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion is adopted in the present analysis. With the consideration of surface settlement, the internal energy and external work are calculated. Equating the rate of energy dissipation to the external rate of work, the expression of support pressure is derived. With the help of variational approach, a performance function is proposed to reliability analysis. Improved response surface method is used to calculate the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and the failure probability. In order to assess the validity of the present results, Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to examine the correctness. Sensitivity analysis is used to estimate the influence of different variables on reliability index. Among random variables, the unit weight significantly affects the reliability index. It is found that the greater coefficient of variation of variables lead to the higher failure probability. On the basis of the discussions, the reliability-based design is achieved to calculate the required tunnel support pressure under different situations when the target reliability index is obtained.

A Study on Fault Diagnostic Model for Behaviour Appearance of Components (부품의 가동형태에 따른 고장진단 모델 연구)

  • 박주식;하정호;강경식
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.97-108
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    • 2002
  • This study deals with the application of knowledge-based engineering and a methodology for the assessment & measurement of reliability, availability, maintainability, and safety of industrial systems using fault-tree representation. A fuzzy methodology for fault-tree evaluation seems to be an alternative solution to overcome the drawbacks of the conventional approach. To improve the quality of results, the membership functions must be approximated based on heuristic considerations. Conventionally, it is not always easy to obtain a system reliability for components with different individual failure probability density functions(p.d.f.), We utilize fuzzy set theory to solve the adequacy of the conventional probability in accounting and processing of built-in uncertainties in the probabilistic data. The purpose of this study is to propose the framework of knowledge-based engineering through integrating the various sources of knowledge involved in a FTA.