• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.69-87
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• 2010

The optimal replacement problem was investigated for a multi-state deteriorated system for which the true internal state cannot be observed directly except when the system breaks down completely. The internal state was assumed to be monitored incompletely by a monitor that gives information related to the true state of the system. The problem was formulated as a partially observable Markov decision process. The optimal procedure was found to be a monotone procedure with respect to stochastic increasing ordering of the state probability vectors under some assumptions. Limiting the optimal procedure to a monotone procedure would greatly reduce the tremendous amount of calculation time required to find the optimal procedure.

• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.135-143
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• 2011

현재의 망관리시스템들은 네트워크 장치에서 제공하는 경보의 심각도 정도로만 유효한 정보를 제공해 주며, 장애분석 과정이 주로 기술적인 숙련도가 높은 전문 운용 인력에 의존적이다. 이러한 이유 때문에 발생한 경보에 대하여 실제 장애 여부를 판단하는데 상당한 시간이 소요되며, 비교적 높은 인력 투입비용이 소요되고 있다. 따라서 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 본 연구에서는 네트워크 시설의 과거 경보발생 이력 및 장애처리 이력을 기반으로 각 경보에 대한 장애 가능성을 확률적으로 분석하고, 장애에 대한 적합한 조치 방법을 신뢰수준과 함께 안내하는 방법과 이를 실제 자동화된 시스템으로 구현하기 위해 필요한 프로그램 설계를 제시한다. 또한 사례연구를 통하여 제안된 방법이 실제 어떻게 사용될 수 있는지를 보여준다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.111-130
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• 1998

We propose an imperfect repair model which depends on external effects quantified by covariates. The model is based on the Brown-Proschan imperfect repair model wherefrom the probability of perfect repair is represented by a function of covariates. We are motivated by deficiency of the BP model whose stationarity prevents us from predicting dynamically the time to next failure according to external condition. Five types of function for the probability of perfect repair are proposed. This article also presents a procedure for estimating the parameter of the function for the probability of perfect repair, as well as the inherent lifetime distribution of the system, based on consecutive inter-failure times and the covariates. The estimation procedure is based on the expectation-maximization principle which is suitable to incomplete data problems. focusing on the maximization step, we derive some theorems which guarantee the existence of the solution. A Monte Carlo study is also performed to illustrate the prediction power of the model as well as to show reasonable properties of the estimates. The model reduces significantly the mean square error of the in-sample prediction. so it can be utilized in real fields for evaluating and maintaining repairable systems.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제8권6호
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• pp.577-588
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• 2016

Due to the uncertainties related to the flaw assessment parameters, such as flaw size, fracture toughness, loading spectrum and so on, the probability concept is preferred over deterministic one in flaw assessment. In this study, efforts have been made to develop the reliability based flaw assessment procedure which combines the flaw assessment procedure of BS7910 and first-and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM). Both crack length and depth of semi-elliptical surface crack at weld toe were handled as random variable whose probability distribution was defined as Gaussian with certain means and standard deviations. Then the limit state functions from static rupture and fatigue perspective were estimated using FORM and SORM in joint probability space of crack depth and length. The validity of predicted limit state functions were checked by comparing it with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. It was confirmed that the developed methodology worked perfectly in predicting the limit state functions without time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation.

• 국제초고층학회논문집
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• 제1권3호
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• pp.203-209
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• 2012

The purpose of this paper is to present the state of practice being used in the Philippines for the performance-based seismic design of reinforced concrete tall buildings. Initially, the overall methodology follows "An Alternative Procedure for Seismic Analysis and Design of Tall Buildings Located in the Los Angeles Region, 2008", which was developed by Los Angeles Tall Buildings Structural Design Council. After 2010, the design procedure follows "Tall Buildings Initiative, Guidelines for Performance-Based Seismic Design of Tall Buildings, 2010" developed by Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER). After the completion of preliminary design in accordance with code-based design procedures, the performance of the building is checked for serviceable behaviour for frequent earthquakes (50% probability of exceedance in 30 years, i.e,, with 43-year return period) and very low probability of collapse under extremely rare earthquakes (2% of probability of exceedance in 50 years, i.e., 2475-year return period). In the analysis, finite element models with various complexity and refinements are used in different types of analyses using, linear-static, multi-mode pushover, and nonlinear-dynamic analyses, as appropriate. Site-specific seismic input ground motions are used to check the level of performance under the potential hazard, which is likely to be experienced. Sample project conducted using performance-based seismic design procedures is also briefly presented.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.164-168
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• 2003

Bayes theorem, suggested by the British Mathematician Bayes (18th century), enables the prior estimate of the probability of an event under the condition given by a specific This theorem has been frequently used to revise the failure probability of a component or system. 2-Stage Bayesian procedure was firstly published by Shultis et al. (1981) and Kaplan (1983), and was further developed based on the studies of Hora & Iman (1990) Papazpgolou et al., Porn(1993). For a small observed failure number (below 12), the estimated reliability of a system or component is not reliable. In the case in which the reliability data of the corresponding system or component can be found in a generic reliability reference book, however, a reliable estimation of the failure probability can be realized by using Bayes theorem, which jointly makes use of the observed data (specific data) and the data found in reference book (generic data).

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.31-34
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• 2021

The article considers the possibilities of increasing the accuracy of estimates of the parameters of the trajectory of the target with the provision of a given probability of stable support of the air object, in particular, during its maneuver. The aim of the work is to develop a filtration algorithm that provides a given probability of stable tracking of the air object by determining the regular components of filtration errors, in particular, when maneuvering the air object, and their compensation with appropriate correction of filter parameters and estimates of air object trajectory parameters.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권8호
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• pp.2915-2923
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• 2022

There is an increasing interest in passive safety systems to minimize the need for operator intervention or external power sources in nuclear power plants. Because a passive system has a weak driving force, there is greater uncertainty in the performance compared with an active system. In previous studies, several methods have been suggested to evaluate passive system reliability, and many of them estimated the failure probability using thermal-hydraulic analyses and the Monte Carlo method. However, if the functional failure of a passive system is rare, it is difficult to estimate the failure probability using conventional methods owing to their high computational time. In this paper, a procedure for the application of the Chernoff bound to the evaluation of passive system reliability is proposed. A feasibility study of the procedure was conducted on a passive decay heat removal system of a micro modular reactor in its conceptual design phase, and it was demonstrated that the passive system reliability can be evaluated without performing a large number of thermal-hydraulic analyses or Monte Carlo simulations when the system has a small failure probability. Accordingly, the advantages and constraints of applying the Chernoff bound for passive system reliability evaluation are discussed in this paper.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.173-180
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• 2022

Most of the drinking water dams managed by the local governments in Korea are earthfill dams, and these dams have almost no geotechnical property information necessary for seismic performance evaluation. Nevertheless, in the rough planning stage for improving seismic safety for these dams, it is necessary to classify their relative seismic hazard against earthquakes and conduct an additional ground investigation. The zero seismic failure probability curve is a curve suggested in this study in which the probability of failure due to an earthquake becomes '0' regardless of the geotechnical properties of the earthfill dam. By examining the method and procedure for calculating failure probability due to an earthquake suggested in previous researches, the zero seismic failure probability curves for an earthquake in 1,000-year and 2,400-year return periods in Korea were presented in the form of a hyperbola on the plane of the dam height versus freeboard ratio (ratio of freeboard to dam height), respectively. The distribution characteristics of the dam height and the freeboard ratio of 81 Korean earthfill dams were presented. The two proposed zero seismic failure probability curves are shown on the plane of the dam height versus freeboard ratio, and the relative seismic hazard of 81 dams can be classified into three groups using these curves as boundaries. This study presented the method of classifying the relative seismic hazard and the classification result.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.167-172
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• 1997

We present a procedure which finds the probability distribution of number of customers accumulated when the server ends a vacation in the Geo/G/1 gated queueing system, where the service for a customer and the vacation, respectively, takes one slot time. The pp. g. f. for the number of customers accumulated at the gate closing epoch is obtained as a recursive form. The full probabilities, then, are derived using an iterative procedure. This system finds an application in a packet transmitting telecommunications system where the server transmits(serves) packets(customers) accumulated at a gate closing epoch, and takes one slot time vacation thereafter.