• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.671-682
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• 2007

The probability and the reliability-based seismic performance evaluation procedure proposed in the FEMA-355F was applied to a reinforced concrete moment frame building in this study. For the FEMA procedure, which was originally developed for steel moment frame structures, to be applied to other structural systems, the capacity should be re-defined and the factors reflecting the uncertainties related to capacity and demand need to be determined. To perform the evaluation procedure a prototype building was designed per IBC 2003, and inelastic dynamic analyses were conducted applying site-specific ground motions to determine the parameters for performance evaluation. According to the analysis results, distribution of the determined capacities turned out to be relatively smaller than that of the demands, which showed that the defined capacity was reasonable. It was also shown that the prototype building satisfied the target performance since the determined confidence levels exceeded the objectives for both local and global collapses.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2002.11b
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• pp.76-79
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• 2002

In this paper, we propose a Probabilistic Tabu Search(PTS) method for hydro-thermal scheduling. Hydro scheduling has many constraints and very difficult to solve the optimal schedule because it has many local minima. To solve the problem effectively, the proposed method uses two procedures, one is Tabu search procedure that plays a role in local search, and the other is Restarting procedure that enables to diversify its search region. To adjust parameters such as a reducing rate and initial searching region, search strategy is selected according to its probability after Restarting procedure. In order to show the usefulness of the proposed method, the PTS is applied on two cases which have dependent hydro plants and compared to those of other method. The simulation results show it is very efficient and useful algorithm to solve the hydro-thermal scheduling problem.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.741-744
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• 2004

In concrete pavements with uniform tining space, the whine noise which has high frequency spectrum related to the uniform tining space exist. In this paper, randomization procedure of tining space for concrete pavements is proposed. The proposed procedure developed based on the LCG(Linear Congruential Generator) algorithm. And the factor concerned in the procedure are drag span length, number of different tining space, ratio of each tining space, total tinings of each size, sequence of actual tining.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.625-639
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• 2020

The gamma distribution is a flexible right-skewed distribution widely used in many areas, and it is of great interest to estimate the probability of a random variable exceeding a specified value in survival and reliability analysis. Therefore, the study develops a fixed-accuracy confidence interval for P(X > c) when X follows a gamma distribution, Γ(α, β), and c is a preassigned positive constant through: 1) a purely sequential procedure with known shape parameter α and unknown rate parameter β; and 2) a nonparametric purely sequential procedure with both shape and rate parameters unknown. Both procedures enjoy appealing asymptotic first-order efficiency and asymptotic consistency properties. Extensive simulations validate the theoretical findings. Three real-life data examples from health studies and steel manufacturing study are discussed to illustrate the practical applicability of both procedures.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.11-20
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• 2024

The ductility of the system based on the capacity of each structural member constituting the seismic force-resisting system is a significant factor determining the structure's seismic performance. This study aims to provide a procedure to supplement the current seismic design criteria to secure the system's ductility and improve the seismic performance of the steel ordinary moment frames. For the study, a nonlinear analysis was performed on the 9- and 15-story model buildings, and the formation of collapse mechanisms and damage distribution for dynamic loads were analyzed. As a result of analyzing the nonlinear response and damage distribution of the steel ordinary moment frame, local collapse due to the concentration of structural damage was observed in the case where the influence of the higher mode was dominant. In this study, a procedure to improve the seismic performance and avoid inferior dynamic response was proposed by limiting the strength ratio of the column. The proposed procedure effectively improved the seismic performance of steel ordinary moment frames by reducing the probability of local collapse.

• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.497-510
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• 2015

The jury instruction consists of a set of legal rules and provides a guide for jurors to interpret evidence and the legal standard of a proof beyond reasonable doubt. Jury instructions are usually given after the closing arguments (at the end of the trial). But some research has shown that jury instruction provided before the evidence may have an impact on verdict. The present study was to determine the cognitive process caused by early instruction: (1) Early instruction may influence the verdict by upwardly adjusting the threshold for the decision to convict; (2) early instruction may influence the verdict through evaluations of the probative values of evidence; (3) Or both. 187 people older than 20 years of age participated in the on-line survey. With a trial scenario, one independent variable, Instruction Procedure, was manipulated in three levels: before-and-after the evidence procedure, after-only evidence procedure, and no-instruction procedure. The instruction procedure conditions did not show any difference in the evaluation of the probative values of evidence. On the other hand, before-and-after condition showed the lowest rate of guilty verdict and the highest probability of guilt for the defendant in the scenario. This latter result clearly suggested that the instruction procedure affects the decision threshold. Specifically, instruction provided twice, once before and again after the evidence, may upwardly shift the threshold for the decision to convict.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.373-383
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• 2006

The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.70-78
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• 2013

Plants which are having conditions of high temperature and pressure always are exposed to danger. In order to prevent unexpected accidents, safety management that can effectively and appropriately examine facilities is required in plant operation. RBI(Risk-Based Inspection) technology in API 581 is one of standard management technique for evaluating risk on petroleum plants. There are qualitative and quantitative assessments in RBI methodology. Quantitative evaluation step is complex and required much information, so high-risk facilities in plant are selected firstly by qualitative method. Qualitative RBI is performed by choosing the answer in prepared questionnaire. However, it is difficult to believe thoroughly results from survey including ambiguous information. In this study, the procedure of qualitative RBI analysis with considering probability distribution concept were proposed by using Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase reliability in spite of uncertain factors. In addition, qualitative risk of cooling system for LNG plant was evaluated using proposed procedure. Although 20 items of total 39 assessment items are applied to uncertain factors, risk section of high probability(89%) were verified. The detailed results were described in manuscript.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.62 no.4
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• pp.507-517
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• 2017

Due to the discontinuous nature of uncertainty quantification in conventional evidence theory(ET), the computational cost of reliability analysis based on ET model is very high. A novel ET model based on fuzzy distribution and the corresponding combination rule to synthesize the judgments of experts are put forward in this paper. The intersection and union of membership functions are defined as belief and plausible membership function respectively, and the Murfhy's average combination rule is adopted to combine the basic probability assignment for focal elements. Then the combined membership functions are transformed to the equivalent probability density function by a normalizing factor. Finally, a reliability analysis procedure for structures with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is presented, in which the equivalent normalization method is adopted to solve the upper and lower bound of reliability. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated by a numerical example and an engineering example. The results also show that the reliability interval calculated by the suggested method is almost identical to that solved by conventional method. Moreover, the results indicate that the computational cost of the suggested procedure is much less than that of conventional method. The suggested ET model provides a new way to flexibly represent epistemic uncertainty, and provides an efficiency method to estimate the reliability of structures with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.70 no.6
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• pp.765-779
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• 2019

Most of the existing evaluation criteria of vibration serviceability rely on the peak acceleration of the structure rather than that of the people keeping their own body unmoved on the structure who is the real receiver of structural vibrations. In order to accurately assess the vibration serviceability, therefore, a full path assessment approach of vibration serviceability based on vibration source, path and receiver is not only tentatively proposed in this paper, taking the peak acceleration of receiver into account, but also introduce a probability procedure to provide more instructive information instead of a single value. In fact, semi-rigid supported on both sides of the structure is more consistent with the actual situation than simply supported or clamped due to the application of the prefabricated footbridge structures. So, the footbridge is regarded as a beam with semi-rigid supported on both sides in this paper. The differential quadrature-integral quadrature coupled method is not only to handle different type of boundary conditions, but also after being further modified via the introduction of an approximation procedure in this work, the time-varying system problem caused by human-structure interaction can be solved well. The analytical results of numerical simulations demonstrate that the modified differential quadrature-integral quadrature coupled method has higher reliability and accuracy compared with the mode superposition method. What's more, both of the two different passive control measures, the tuned mass damper and semi-rigid supported, have good performance for reducing vibrations. Most importantly, semi-rigid supported is easier to achieve the objective of reducing vibration compared with tuned mass damper in design stage of structure.