• Wind and Structures
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.423-435
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• 2021

Although existing algorithms can predict wind speed using historical observation data, for engineering feasibility, most use moment methods and probability density functions to estimate fitted parameters. However, extreme wind speed prediction accuracy for long-term return periods is not always dependent on how the optimized frequency distribution curves are obtained; long-term return periods emphasize general distribution effects rather than marginal distributions, which are closely related to potential extreme values. Moreover, there are different wind speed parent sample types; how to theoretically select the proper extreme value distribution is uncertain. The influence of different sampling time intervals has not been evaluated in the fitting process. To overcome these shortcomings, updated steps are introduced, involving parameter sensitivity analysis for different sampling time intervals. The extreme value prediction accuracy of unknown parent samples is also discussed. Probability analysis of mean wind is combined with estimation of the probability plot correlation coefficient and the maximum likelihood method; an iterative estimation algorithm is proposed. With the updated steps and comparison using a Monte Carlo simulation, a fitting policy suitable for different parent distributions is proposed; its feasibility is demonstrated in extreme wind speed evaluations at Longhua and Chuansha meteorological stations in Shanghai, China.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.299-314
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• 2013

This paper presents a nonlinear time series analysis technique for evaluating machine defect severity, based on the Recurrence Plot (RP) entropy. The RP entropy is calculated from the probability distribution of the diagonal line length in the recurrence plot, which graphically depicts a system's dynamics and provides a global picture of the autocorrelation in a time series over all available time-scales. Results of experimental studies conducted on a spindle-bearing test bed have demonstrated that, as the working condition of the bearing deteriorates due to the initiation and/or progression of structural damages, the frequency information contained in the vibration signal becomes increasingly complex, leading to the increase of the RP entropy. As a result, RP entropy can serve as an effective indicator for defect severity assessment of rolling bearings.

• Journal of Electrochemical Science and Technology
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.185-189
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• 2016

The coupled channel method via the Local Reflection (LORE) matrix is employed to investigate the quantum mechanical behavior of the sticking or adsorption and desorption of hydrogen (H) atom on bilayer graphene via the armchair edge. The sticking and desorption probabilities of H are calculated and are plotted against the initial translational energy of H. The sticking probability plot shows a barrierless reaction indicating that hydrogen is easily adsorbed on the armchair edge of graphene. The desorption probability plot, however, shows that desorption of H from the graphene sheets is an activated process with a barrier height of 4.19 eV suggesting that a strong bond exists between the adsorbed H atom and the edge carbon atom. Thus, temperatures higher than the operating temperatures (300 - 1500 K) of conventional fuel cells are necessary to release the adsorbed H atom from the armchair edge of graphene.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.12 no.12
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• pp.130-138
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• 1995

Machined graphite/epoxy surfaces were studied by using SEM (Scanning Electron Microscopy), surface profilometry and its analysis to determine suitable surface describing parameters for machined unidirectional and multidirectional laminate composite. The surface roughness and profile are found to be highly depdndent on the fiber layup direction and the measurement direction. It was possible to machine 90 .deg. and -45 .deg. plies due to the adjacent plies, which were holding those plies. It was found that the microgeometrical variations in terms of roughness parameters $R_{a}$ without $D_{y}$(Maximum Damage Depth) region and $D_{y}$are better descriptors of the machined laminate composite surface than commonly used roughness parameters $R_{a}$and $R_{max}$ The characteristics of surface profiles in laminate composite are well represented in CPD (Cumulative Probability Distribution) plot and PPD (Percentage Probability Density) plot. Edge-trimmed multidirectional laminate surfaces are Gaussian and random for profiles measured along the tool movement direction, they are periodic and non-Gaussian in the direction perpendicular to the tool movement.t.ent.t.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2008.04a
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• pp.295-299
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• 2008

This paper discusses tests of factor effect or contrast by the use of saturated design $k^n$ factorial design. The nine nonparametric rank measures in normality test using normal probability pot are proposed. Length's PSE(Pseduo Standard Error) test [4] which relies on the concept of effect sparsity is also introduced and extended to the margin of error(ME) and Simultaneous margin of error(SME).

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.804-811
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• 2010

The fatigue crack propagation is stochastic in nature, because the variables affecting the fatigue behavior are random and have uncertainty. Therefore, the fatigue life prediction is critical for the design and the maintenance of many structural components. In this study, fatigue experiments are conducted on the specimens of magnesium alloy AZ31 under various conditions such as thickness of specimen, the load ratio and the loading condition. The probability distribution fit to the fatigue failure life are investigated through a probability plot paper by these conditions. The probabilities of failure at various conditions are also estimated. The fatigue design life is predicted by using the Weibull distribution.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.10
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• pp.857-866
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• 2009

In this study, basic data is consisted annual maximum rainfall at 56 stations that has the rainfall records more than 30years in Korea. The 14 probability distributions which has been widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis are applied to the basic data. The method of moments, method of maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments method are used to estimate the parameters. And 4-tests (chi-square test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer von Mises test, probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test) are used to determine the goodness of fit of probability distributions. This study emphasizes the necessity for considering the variability of the estimate of T-year event in hydrologic frequency analysis and proposes a framework for evaluating probability distribution models. The variability (or estimation error) of T-year event is used as a criterion for model evaluation as well as three goodness of fit criteria (SLSC, MLL, and AIC) in the framework. The Jackknife method plays a important role in estimating the variability. For the annual maxima of rainfall at 56 stations, the Gumble distribution is regarded as the best one among probability distribution models with two or three parameters.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.39-39
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• 2015

극치 수문(Hydrologic extremes)분야에서는 수문자료의 분포에 따라 Gumbel, GEV, 그리고 GLO 분포와 같은 다양한 확률통계 분포형이 존재한다. GEV와 GLO 분포형의 경우 Gumbel 분포형과 달리 형상매개변수가 포함된 3변수 분포형으로써 이상 기후 현상으로 인한 잦은 극치 수문사상을 표현하는데 좀 더 유연한 것으로 알려져 있다. 특히 GLO 분포형의 경우 영국에서 홍수빈도해석 시 적정분포형으로 선정된바 있다(Institute of Hydrology, 1999). 다양한 분포형 중에서 표본 자료를 대표할 수 있는 분포형을 선정하는 통계적 기법이 적합도 검정이다. 적합도 검정에는 $x^2$-검정, Cramer von-Mises 검정, Kolmogorov-Smirnov 검정, PPCC(probability plot correlation coefficient, 확률도시 상관계수)검정 등이 있으며 그 중 PPCC 검정은 이용방법이 간편하면서도 뛰어난 기각능력을 보이는 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 연구에서는 극치 수문분야에서 널리 이용되고 있는 GLO 분포형을 대상으로 자료의 왜곡도 영향을 고려할 수 있는 확률도시 상관계수 검정의 검정통계량을 추정하여 보았다.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.435-445
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• 2022

In this study, the reverberation of a bistatic sonar operated in southeastern coast in the East Sea in July 2020 was analyzed. The reverberation sensor data were collected through an LFM sound source towed by a research vessel and a horizontal line array receiver 1 km to 5 km away from it. The reverberation sensor data was analyzed by various methods including geo-plot after signal processing. Through this, it was confirmed that the angle reflected from the sound source through the scatterer to the receiver has a dominant influence on the distribution of the reverberation sound, and the probability distribution characteristics of bistatic sonar reverberation varies for each beam. In addition, parametric factors of K distribution and Rayleigh distribution were estimated from the sample through moment method estimation. Using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at the confidence level of 0.05, the distribution probability of the data was analyzed. As a result, it could be observed that the reverberation follows a Rayleigh probability distribution, and it could be estimated that this was the effect of a low reverberation to noise ratio.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2004.05b
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• pp.635-639
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• 2004

댐과 같은 구조물의 설계시 큰 강우량에 내한 분포함수의 적합성을 놀일 필요가 있다. 이에 대해 Wang (1997a and b)은 큰 설계량에 내한 적합성을 놀이기 위해 LH 모멘트와 고차 PWM(higher Probability Weighted Moments)방법을 제안하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 자 지역별로 대표적인 4개 지점의 일 강우량 자료를 사용하여 제안된 고차 PWM 방법의 적용성을 살펴보았다. 그 과정으로 가장 낮은 차수인 일반적인 PWM 방법과 더 높은 차수의 PWM 방법을 이용하여, GEV(Generalized Extreme Value) 분포와 Gumbel 분포에 대한 매개변수를 추정한 후 이 추정치를 확률지에 실측치와 함께 도시하여 결과를 비교하였다. 그리고 PPCC(Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient) 적합도 검정결과를 통해 추정된 매개변수의 적합성을 확인하였다.