• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of switch

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A Study on the Design of Prediction Model for Safety Evaluation of Partial Discharge (부분 방전의 안전도 평가를 위한 예측 모델 설계)

  • Lee, Su-Il;Ko, Dae-Sik
    • Journal of Platform Technology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 2020
  • Partial discharge occurs a lot in high-voltage power equipment such as switchgear, transformers, and switch gears. Partial discharge shortens the life of the insulator and causes insulation breakdown, resulting in large-scale damage such as a power outage. There are several types of partial discharge that occur inside the product and the surface. In this paper, we design a predictive model that can predict the pattern and probability of occurrence of partial discharge. In order to analyze the designed model, learning data for each type of partial discharge was collected through the UHF sensor by using a simulator that generates partial discharge. The predictive model designed in this paper was designed based on CNN during deep learning, and the model was verified through learning. To learn about the designed model, 5000 training data were created, and the form of training data was used as input data for the model by pre-processing the 3D raw data input from the UHF sensor as 2D data. As a result of the experiment, it was found that the accuracy of the model designed through learning has an accuracy of 0.9972. It was found that the accuracy of the proposed model was higher in the case of learning by making the data into a two-dimensional image and learning it in the form of a grayscale image.

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The Persistent Effects of Retirement Pension Reserves - Debate on the effectiveness of the IRP Program (노후소득보장을 위한 퇴직연금 보유의 지속성 분석 -IRP의 실효성 논쟁 중심으로-)

  • Yim, Doobin;Jeon, Yongil
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2015
  • The Individual Retirement Pension (IRP) enables workers to continuously receive a retirement pension even when workers change their jobs in different companies and so it performs a bridge fund as the complimentary living expenses until they receive government public pension. Although the Korean government has forced workers to maintain an IRP account until their retirement age and to close their accounts only when they want to do so, it is not clear to measure its really effectiveness and, in fact, most of IRP accounts have been terminated immediately after the changes of their jobs. In this respect, IRP has not performed the bridge role for the future retirement pension income. We provide an economic decision-making model of both government and workers, where the retirement benefits related with the IRP are explicitly considered. Our model is required to select specific severance pay systems to maximize the income security and stability for their future old ages. It is concluded that the need of workers on the severance pay system is automatically revealed into the switch to IRP when workers are out from their current jobs, which is equivalent to the effect of gradually unifying the dual system of the retirement payment. In additoin, our empirical data indicates the relatively higher probability of termination on IRP for the older male workers having the more retirement deposit.

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A Study on the Volatility of Global Stock Markets using Markov Regime Switching model (마코브국면전환모형을 이용한 글로벌 주식시장의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.17-39
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

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The Moderating Role of Need for Cognitive Closure and Temporal Self-Construal in Consumer Satisfaction and Repurchase Consistency (만족도와 재구매 간 관계에 있어서 상황적 영향의 조절효과에 관한 연구 - 인지 종결 욕구와 일시적 자아 해석의 조절효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Min Hoon;Ha, Young Won
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.95-119
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    • 2010
  • Although there have been many studies regarding the inconsistency between consumers' attitudes and behavior, prior research has almost exclusively focused on the relationship between the attitude before behavior and the initial behavior. Relatively little research has been conducted on consumer satisfaction after purchase and post-purchase behavior. This research proposed that the relationship between satisfaction and post-purchase behavior is moderated by consumers' psychological characteristics such as need for cognitive closure(NCC) and temporal self-construal(SC). The need for cognitive closure refers to individuals' desire for a firm answer to a question and an aversion toward ambiguity. We assumed the need for cognitive closure as a major moderating variable because it is judged that the requirement for cognition clearly varies between when a consumer repurchases the same product and seeks a new alternative. Individuals who tend to end cognition due to time constraints or inappropriate conditions may display considerable cognitive impatience or impulsivity and has a higher probability in repurchasing the same product than a consumer without such limitations. They would avoid further consideration for new alternatives and the likelihood of the repurchase for prior alternative would increase. As hypothesized, significant moderating effect of the NCC was confirmed. This result gives a significant implication for a corporate to establish effective marketing strategies. For a corporate or product brand that has been occupying the market after entering the market earlier, it would be effective to maintain need for cognitive closure high in the existing consumers and thereby preventing the consumers from being interested in the new alternatives. On the other hand, new brands that have just entered the market need to lower the potential consumers' need for cognitive closure so that the consumers can be interested in new alternatives. Along with need for cognitive closure, temporal self-construal also turned out to moderate the satisfaction-repurchase. temporal SC reflects the extent to which individuals view themselves either as an individuated entity or in relation to others. Consumers under a temporarily independent SC would repurchase former alternative again according to their prior satisfaction and evaluation. In contrast, consumers in temporal interdependent SC tended to switch to a new alternative because they value interpersonal relationships above anything else and have a tendency to rely heavily on in-group opinions. When they are confronted with additional opinions, it is highly probable that he/she will choose a new product as an alternative. By proving the impact that temporal self-construal has on repurchasing behavior, this study is providing the marketers with new standards for establishing successful promotional strategies. For example, if the buyer and the user is the same for a product, it would be effective for the seller to convince the consumer to make decision subjectively by encouraging temporal independent self-construal. On the contrary, in the case where the purchase is made by an individual but the product is consumed by a group of people. For example, a housewife is more likely to choose the products or brands that her husband or children prefer rather than the ones that she likes by herself. In that case, emphasizing how the whole family can be satisfied and happy about the product would be effective for promoting repurchase.

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