• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of occurring accidents

Search Result 21, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

An Analysis for Expected Effect of the Introduction of Motorcycle Safety Inspection (이륜자동차 안전검사제도 도입 시 기대효과 분석)

  • Bang, Soohyuk;Lee, Jisun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.15 no.5
    • /
    • pp.157-166
    • /
    • 2013
  • PURPOSES : This study is to analyze expected effect of a accident decrease when motorcycle safety inspection is introduced. METHODS : Based on the literature review of effect of 4-wheel vehicle inspection, probability of occurring accidents among defective motorcycles are calculated by using the number of estimated defective motorcycles and accidents resulting from defects of motorcycles. Then, the number of decreased accidents which is resulting from eliminating defects of motorcycles by safety inspection is estimated by using probability of occurring accidents among defective motorcycles. RESULTS : If the ratio of eliminating defects of motorcycles is 95% after motorcycle safety inspection, the effects of accident decrease of motorcycle safety inspection are analyzed from 2005 to 2008. As a result, 46,292 defective motorcycles are repaired and 1,376 accidents are prevented when the probability of occurring accidents among defective motorcycles is 2.97%. CONCLUSIONS : This study suggests the expected effect of motorcycle safety inspection is that the inspection can prevent 1,376 motorcycle accidents. However, the number of preventing motorcycle accidents are small, compared with the total number of motorcycle accidents because there are limitations to investigate the causes of defective motorcycle accidents. A more precise analysis of the expected effect of motorcycle inspection is possible when a systematic investigation of the causes of the accidents is implemented.

A Statistical Analysis of Tree-Harvesting Worker Safety

  • Young, Timothy M.;Guess, Frank M.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
    • /
    • v.3 no.2
    • /
    • pp.61-80
    • /
    • 2002
  • Tree-harvesting worker data of 508 separate worker accidents are analyzed and an exploratory approach taken. The worker accident data cover a sample of five years. The scope of the study was the southeastern United States of America. As might be hypothesized, the chainsaw was the most hazardous type of tree-harvesting equipment. It accounted for 55% of the tree-harvesting accidents. Most chainsaw accidents resulted in injuries to the lower extremities and were more frequent among younger employees. The probability of one or more chainsaw accidents occurring in any 30-day period was approximately 0.856. Chainsaw accidents were more likely to occur in late morning and early afternoon. We used statistical tools such as Pareto charts, c-charts and Ishikawa diagrams. Such tools are useful in diagnosing the root-cause of tree-harvesting worker accidents and help in developing preventive safety programs. Recommendations to help improve the quality of information of accident data collected by insurance companies and others are briefly given. The strategy and culture of continuous process improvements are stressed.

  • PDF

A Study on the Prediction of Traffic Accidents Using Artificial Intelligence (인공지능을 활용한 교통사고 발생 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Ga-eul;Kim, Jeong-hyeon;Son, Hye-ji;Kim, Dohyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
    • /
    • 2021.05a
    • /
    • pp.389-391
    • /
    • 2021
  • Traffic regulations are expanding to prevent traffic accidents for people's safety, but traffic accidents are not decreasing. In this study, the probability of traffic accidents occurring at a specific time and place is estimated by analyzing various factors such as weather forecast data from the Meteorological Agency, day of the week, time of day, location data, and location information. This study combines objective data on the occurrence of numerous previous traffic accidents with various additional elements not considered in previous studies to derive a more improved traffic accident probability prediction model. The results of this study can be effectively used for various transportation-related services for the safety of people.

  • PDF

Study on Fire.Explosion Accidents Prediction Model Development of LPG Vaporizer (LPG 기화기의 화재.폭발사고 예측모델개발에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.28-36
    • /
    • 2010
  • We have garnered 3,593 data of gas accidents reported for 12 years from 1995, and then analyzed the LPG vaporizer accidents according to their types and causes based on the classified database. According to the results the gas rupture has been the most common accident followed by the release, explosion and then fire accidents, the most frequent accident-occurring sub-cause is LPG check floater faults. In addition, we have applied the Poisson Probability Functions to predict the most-likely probabilities of fire, explosion, release and rupture with the LPG vaporizer in the upcoming 5 years. In compliance with Poisson Probability Functions results, in the item which occurs below 3 "LPG-Vaporizer-Fire", in the item which occurs below 5 "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults-Check Floater" and the item which occurs below 10 appeared with "LPG-Vaporizer-Products Faults". From this research we have assured the successive database updating will highly improve the anticipating probability accuracy and thus it will play a key role as a significant safety- securing guideline against the gas disasters.

Constructing a Database Structure for the Domestic LP Gas and Natural Gas Accidents and its Analysis (국내 LP 및 천연가스사고 Database 구축 및 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Park, Sun-Young;Kim, Hyo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
    • /
    • v.12 no.3
    • /
    • pp.56-63
    • /
    • 2008
  • We have garnered 3,593 data of gas [Natural Gas (NG) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)] accidents reported for 16 years from 1991, and then analyzed the accidents according to their types and causes based on the classified database. According to the results the gas leak has been the most common accident followed by the explosion and then fire accidents. The most frequent accident-occurring locations for fire, explosion and leak are recognized around the valve, hose and pipeline, respectively. In addition, we have applied the Poisson analysis to predict the most-likely probabilities of fire, explosion and release in the upcoming 5 years. From this research we have assured the successive database updating will highly improve the anticipating-probability accuracy and thus it will play a key role as a significant safety-securing guideline against the gas disasters.

  • PDF

A study on the causal analysis of death accidents by the falls in the construction sites (건설업에서 떨어짐의 사망재해 원인 분석)

  • Shin, Woonchul;Jeong, Seong Chun;Lee, Ro Na
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.63-69
    • /
    • 2014
  • The large-sized, complex, and multi-storied construction industry caused the increasing construction amount together with insufficient skilled workers to increase the probability of occurring accident, resulting in the most construction accidents next to manufacturing industry. Death accidents have risen to serious level, compared construction industry with manufacturing industry along the numbers of workers. Due to the main feature of one-time industry receiving orders, open-air dispersed production activity and the long-complex production process, the continuous efforts to prevent and manage safety accidents were made but the results were of no effect. They didn't deeply analyze the falling accidents that consist of half death accidents in construction industry. This study has classified in detail Missteps, Slip, Trip, Unstability and the others on the basis of gait characteristics, occurrence types, frequency and intensity of death accidents. This study suggested the effective methods on the construction safety management according to the causes of falling accidents. This study will be expect to be used as the basic data in the procedure and the program of safety management.

Insights for Improving Road Safety : Focusing on Vehicle Accidents in Daegu Metropolitan City

  • Mee Qi Siow;Yang Sok Kim;Mi Jin Noh;Choong Kwon Lee;Sang Ill Moon;Jae Ho Shin
    • Smart Media Journal
    • /
    • v.12 no.11
    • /
    • pp.95-102
    • /
    • 2023
  • Road accidents not only caused loss of human lives but also costed 3% of gross domestic product in most of the countries. The road accidents pose significant challenges to public safety and urban transportation management. There is a need to identify the high-risk area of accidents along with the critical day of week and vulnerable time period in order to implement effective preventive measures and optimizing the resource allocation. We collected 5,012 accident data from 대구교통종합정보. This study identified the high-risk locations, days of week, and time periods for accidents in Daegu and estimated the conditional probabilities of accidents occurring based on combinations of location, day of the week, and time period. The result is visualized in the form of dashboard in Tableau. This study holds substantial practical significance for urban planners, transportation authorities, and policymakers in Daegu to strategically allocate resources for traffic management, law enforcement, and targeted safety campaigns.

Development of Traffic Accident Models at Rural Signalized Intersections by Day and Night (지방부 신호교차로 주·야간 교통사고 예측모형 개발 및 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Geunhee;Jung, Sang Woon;Park, Minho;Lee, Dongmin;Roh, Jeonghyun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.107-115
    • /
    • 2015
  • PURPOSES : The purposes of this study are to compare the day and night characteristics and to develop the models of traffic accidents. in Rural Signalized Intersections METHODS : To develop day and night traffic accident models using the Negative Binomial Model, which was constructed for 156 signalized intersections of rural areas, through field investigations and casualty data from the National Police Agency. RESULTS : Among a total of 17 variances, the daytime traffic accident estimate models identified a total of 9 influence factors of traffic accidents. In the case of nighttime traffic accident models, 11 influence factors of traffic accidents were identified. CONCLUSIONS : By comparing the two models, it was determined that the number of main roads was an independent factor for daytime accidents. For nighttime accidents, several factors were independently involved, including the number of entrances to sub-roads, whether left turn lanes existed in major roads, the distances of pedestrian crossings to main roads and sub-roads, lighting facilities, and others. It was apparent that if the same situation arises, the probability of an accident occurring at night is higher than during the day because the speed of travel through intersections in rural areas is somewhat higher at night than during the day.

Smart Healthcare Access Management System using Iris Recognition (홍채인식을 이용한 스마트 헬스케어 출입관리 시스템)

  • Kwan-Hee Lee;Ji-In Kim;Goo-Rak Kwon
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
    • /
    • v.18 no.5
    • /
    • pp.971-980
    • /
    • 2023
  • Safety accidents and industrial accidents are constantly occurring in existing industrial sites. In addition, the probability of accidents occurring due to physical and mental fatigue of workers is increasing. Accordingly, it is required to introduce systematic management and various systems for the safety of workers. In this paper, by developing an access control system using bio-metric information at industrial sites, we develop efficient health management and access control management functions for workers. Workers are identified through face recognition for access control, and health status is determined through iris recognition. It aims to improve accuracy and develop a more efficient management system by diagnosing signs of health abnormalities through the congestion of the iris and eyes of workers. Finally, the contents of the development consist of an on-site access control system, an access control program for administrators, and a main server system that diagnoses signs of abnormal health of users.

The Effect of Occupational Safety and Health Education on Occupational Accidents (산업안전보건교육이 산업재해발생에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Konghwa;Ha, Kwonchul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.90-98
    • /
    • 2016
  • Objectives: The aim of this study is to analyze the status of implementation of occupational safety and health education and evaluate the relation between the implementation of education and occupational accidents. Methods: This study used data on occupational safety and health education from the 2012 Current Status of Occupational Safety and Health survey by the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency. The sample is 7,010 persons working in relation to occupational safety and health in industry. An ANOVA test is used to analyze the status of and need for education. Poisson regression is used to evaluate the relation between education and occupational accidents. Results: The rate of implementation of education is 53.3% for periodic education on workers holding office positions, 68.3% for periodic education for workers not holding office positions, 60.3% for periodic education for persons holding managerial and supervisory positions, 65.5% for education provided upon hiring, 50.5% for education provided upon changes in work activities and 37.2% for special education. In the Poisson regression, these data strongly suggest that the probability of occupational accidents occurring with education implemented is much lower than without the implementation of any kind of safety and health education. Conclusions: It is clear that implementation of education has a positive effect on reducing occupational accidents, although its application in domestic industry is insufficient. Thus, it is concluded that education on occupational safety and health should be strengthened for the prevention of occupational accidents.