• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability calculation

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A new Tone's method in APOLLO3® and its application to fast and thermal reactor calculations

  • Mao, Li;Zmijarevic, Igor
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.1269-1286
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents a newly developed resonance self-shielding method based on Tone's method in $APOLLO3^{(R)}$ for fast and thermal reactor calculations. The new method is based on simplified models, the narrow resonance approximation for the slowing down source and Tone's approximation for group collision probability matrix. It utilizes mathematical probability tables as quadrature formulas in calculating effective cross-sections. Numerical results for the ZPPR drawer calculations in 1,968 groups show that, in the case of the double-column fuel drawer, Tone's method gives equivalent precision to the subgroup method while markedly reducing the total number of collision probability matrix calculations and hence the central processing unit time. In the case of a single-column fuel drawer with the presence of a uranium metal material, Tone's method obtains less precise results than those of the subgroup method due to less precise heterogeneous-homogeneous equivalence. The same options are also applied to PWR UOX, MOX, and Gd cells using the SHEM 361-group library, with the objective of analyzing whether this energy mesh might be suitable for the application of this methodology to thermal systems. The numerical results show that comparable precision is reached with both Tone's and the subgroup methods, with the satisfactory representation of intrapellet spatial effects.

A study on the error probability of optical system using kappa square analysis method (카파자승해석법을 이용한 광시스템의 에러 확률에 관한 연구)

  • Ha, Eun-Sil
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.6254-6259
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    • 2015
  • On the optical system and the system itself of the noise of the noise from the outside always present. This noise is to function as reducing performance of the optical system. Therefore, the probability of error, thereby changing the system. In this paper, the error probability of the optical system due to changes in various values by introducing the characteristic variable the value of the optical system was calculated using the ${\kappa}$-square method. Was confirmed also in accordance with the calculation result is an error probability of the optical system changes, it was confirmed that when the value of the holding case for holding the standard about 400 Lux on the probability of the optical system. This case was found to be an optical system using a light source with a low output, so that means the smaller output is no problem to maintain the error probability value of the optical system is large. This means that more effective and less expensive to implement because it means that the optical system does not require the use of pre-amplifier for amplifying the signal at the receiving end of an optical system using a light source with a low output when the normal case.

A Scenario for the Standard Basis of Crest Elevation Estimation along Korean Coast based on Expected Overtopping Probability (마루높이 설정(設定) 기준(基準)을 위한 기대월파확률 추정 Scenario)

  • Kweon, Hyuck Min;Kim, Gun Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.4B
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    • pp.365-376
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    • 2009
  • The importance of resonable treatment of tide characteristics has been shown by Kweon, et al. (2005, 2006) for the crest elevation estimation because of a big difference of tidal elevation along Korean coast. For the procedure of crest elevation design, the expected overtopping probability (EOP) was estimated by Kweon, et al. (2006). The comparisons on each sea showed that EOP was lower east, south and west sea in order. The results involved the assumption that the tide and design level wave height meet any time in a year. However, big waves mainly occur in summer or winter in Korean coast, the study focuses on the encounter probability of big waves and seasonal tide level. A theory of the encounter probability is not derived by the present study but it shows reasonable acceptability of the proposed scenario in which the expected overtopping probability could be an index for the crest elevation estimation in Korean coast. The calculation based on the scenario gives the possibility range for the crest elevation estimation which has no tendency of each sea along Korean peninsular. The range is within the expected overtopping probability of 1% in the whole coast of Korea.

Application of Target Reliability Levels for Maintenance of Domestic Natural Gas Pipelines (국내 천연가스배관 유지관리를 위한 목표신뢰도 적용사례)

  • Lee, Jin-Han;Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Jo, Young-Do;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2018
  • Reliability based design and assessment (RBDA) methodology is one of the newest directions of natural gas pipeline design method. Reliability targets are used to ensure that safety levels are met relevant limit states in the stage of design and maintenance. The target reliability for ultimate limit states such as large leak and rupture were developed using tolerable risk criteria for individual and societal risk. This paper shows the reliability target can be met through the implementation of periodic maintenance measures during the life cycle of the pipelines. The case study involves the calculation of the failure probability due to equipment impact, the calculation of the failure probability due to corrosion, and the estimation the re-inspection interval for domestic natural gas transmission pipelines.

Human Error Probability Determination in Blasting Process of Ore Mine Using a Hybrid of HEART and Best-Worst Methods

  • Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei;Mohammadfam, Iraj;Soltanian, Ali Reza;Najafi, Kamran
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.326-335
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    • 2022
  • Background: One of the important actions for enhancing human reliability in any industry is assessing human error probability (HEP). The HEART technique is a robust tool for calculating HEP in various industries. The traditional HEART has some weaknesses due to expert judgment. For these reasons, a hybrid model is presented in this study to integrate HEART with Best-Worst Method. Materials Method: In this study, the blasting process in an iron ore mine was investigated as a case study. The proposed HEART-BWM was used to increase the sensitivity of APOA calculation. Then the HEP was calculated using conventional HEART formula. A consistency ratio was calculated using BWM. Finally, for verification of the HEART-BWM, HEP calculation was done by traditional HEART and HEART-BWM. Results: In the view of determined HEPs, the results showed that the mean of HEP in the blasting of the iron ore process was 2.57E-01. Checking the full blast of all the holes after the blasting sub-task was the most dangerous task due to the highest HEP value, and it was found 9.646E-01. On the other side, obtaining a permit to receive and transport materials was the most reliable task, and the HEP was 8.54E-04. Conclusion: The results showed a good consistency for the proposed technique. Comparing the two techniques confirmed that the BWM makes the traditional HEART faster and more reliable by performing the basic comparisons.

Effect of Number of Measurement Points on Accuracy of Muscle T2 Calculations

  • Tawara, Noriyuki;Nishiyama, Atsushi
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.207-214
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of the number of measurement points on the calculation of transverse relaxation time (T2) with a focus on muscle T2. Materials and Methods: This study assumed that muscle T2 was comprised of a single component. Two phantom types were measured, 1 each for long ("phantom") and short T2 ("polyvinyl alcohol gel"). Right calf muscle T2 measurements were conducted in 9 healthy male volunteers using multiple-spin-echo magnetic resonance imaging. For phantoms and muscle (medial gastrocnemius), 5 regions of interests were selected. All region of interest values were expressed as the mean ${\pm}$ standard deviation. The T2 effective signal-ratio characteristics were used as an index to evaluate the magnetic resonance image quality for the calculation of T2 from T2-weighted images. The T2 accuracy was evaluated to determine the T2 reproducibility and the goodness-of-fit from the probability Q. Results: For the phantom and polyvinyl alcohol gel, the standard deviation of the magnetic resonance image signal at each echo time was narrow and mono-exponential, which caused large variations in the muscle T2 decay curves. The T2 effective signal-ratio change varied with T2, with the greatest decreases apparent for a short T2. There were no significant differences in T2 reproducibility when > 3 measurement points were used. There were no significant differences in goodness-of-fit when > 6 measurement points were used. Although the measurement point evaluations were stable when > 3 measurement points were used, calculation of T2 using 4 measurement points had the highest accuracy according to the goodness-of-fit. Even if the number of measurement points was increased, there was little improvement in the probability Q. Conclusion: Four measurement points gave excellent reproducibility and goodness-of-fit when muscle T2 was considered mono-exponential.

Calculation of Carrier Electron Concentration in ZnO Depending on Oxygen Partial Pressure

  • Kim, Eun-Dong;Park, Jong-Mun;Kim, Sang-Cheol;Kim, Nam-Kyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2000.05b
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    • pp.222-232
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    • 2000
  • The relationship between carrier electron concentration(n) and atmosphere oxygen partial pressure($P_{O_2}$ for pure ZnO calculated by the mass-action law, well-known as n ${\propto}P^{-1/m}_{O_2}$ where m = 4 or 6 for the single or the double ionization of the native donor defects due to its nonstoichiometry, respectively, is found in competition with the calculation result on the basis that the total defect concentration is the sum of those of unionized and ionized defects. Definitively, it is found inconsistent with the calculation result by employing the Fermi-Dirac(FD) statistics for their ionization processes. By application of the FD statistics law to the ionization while assuming the defect formation is still ruled by the mass-action law, the calculation results shows the concentration is proportional to $P^{-1/2}_{O_2}$ whenever they ionize singly and/or doubly. Conclusively we would like to propose the new theoretical relation n ${\propto}P^{-1/m}_{O_2}$ because the ionization processes of donors in ZnO should be treated with the electronoccupation probability at localized quantum states in its forbidden band created by the donor defects, i.e. the FD statistics

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Development of Biosphere Assessment Modeling Strategy for Deep Geological Disposal in Generic Site of the Korean Peninsula

  • Do Hyun Kim;Wontak Lee;Dongki Kim;Jonghyun Kim;Joowan Park
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.149-164
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    • 2023
  • As part of the safety case development for generic disposal sites in Korea, it is necessary to develop generic assessment models using various geosphere-biosphere interfaces (GBIs) and potentially exposed groups (PEGs) that reflect the natural environmental characteristics and the lifestyles of people in Korea. In this study, a unique modeling strategy was developed to systematically construct and select Korean generic biosphere assessment models. The strategy includes three process steps (combination, screening, and experts' scoring) for the biosphere system conditions. First, various conditions, such as climate, topography, GBIs, and PEGs, were combined in the biosphere system. Second, the combined calculation cases were configured into interrelation matrices to screen out some calculation cases that were highly unlikely or less significant in terms of the exposure dose. Finally, the selected calculation cases were prioritized based on expert judgment by scoring the knowledge, probability, and importance. The results of this study can be implemented in the development of biosphere assessment models for Korean generic sites. It is believed that this systematic methodology for selecting the candidate calculation cases can contribute to increasing the confidence of future site-specific biosphere assessment models.

Probability Analysis of Rock Slope Stability using Zoning and Discontinuity Persistence as Parameters (사면의 구역 및 절리의 연장성을 고려한 암반사면의 안정성 확률해석)

  • Jang, Bo-An;Sung, Suk-Kyung;Jang, Hyun-Sic
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.155-167
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    • 2010
  • In analysis of slope stability, deterministic analysis which yields a factor of safety has been used until recently. However, probability of failure is considered as a more efficient method because it deals with the uncertainty and variability of rock mass. In both methods, a factor of safety or a probability of failure is calculated for a slope although characteristics of rock mass, such as characteristics of joints, weathering degree of rock and so on, are not uniform throughout the slope. In this paper, we divided a model slope into several zones depending on conditions of rock mass and joints, and probabilities of failure in each zone are calculated and compared with that calculated in whole slope. The persistence of joint was also used as a parameter in calculation of probability of failure. A rock slope located in Hongcheon, Gangwondo was selected and the probability of failure using zoning and persistence as parameter was calculated to confirm the applicability of model analysis.

Interference Probability Calculation of Frequency Sharing Between Non-Geostationary-Satellite Orbit Mobile Earth Station and Land Mobile Station (비정지궤도 위성이동지구국과 육상이동간의 주파수 공유에 따른 간섭 확률 계산)

  • 박지웅;최재훈;김희동
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.1807-1816
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    • 1998
  • The interference probability between non-geostationary-statellite orbit mobile station is calculated when the two systems are sharing the frquency band below 1 GHz. The probability density function of a mobile earth station(MES) is calculated based on the established propagation model and then, a probability of exceeding the threshold level is derived. By changing the average transimission per unit time of total MSS(Moblie satellite service) area and the ratio of transmitters for specific area, we obtain the average transmission per unit time for the area under consideration. From this, the exceedance probability for the given pfd threshold level is evaluated. The exceedance probability is increased as the average transmissio per unit time and ratio become larger. Also the effect of filter isolation between channels is accounted for.

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