• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability calculation

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Cost Effectiveness Evaluation of Seismic Isolated Bridges in Low and Moderate Seismic Region (중약진 지역에서의 지진격리교량의 비용효율성 평가)

  • 고현무
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.440-447
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    • 2000
  • In order to evaluate the cost effectiveness of seismic isolation for bridges in low and moderate seismic region, a method of calculation minimum life-cycle cost of seismic-isolated bridges under specific acceleration level and soil condition is developed. Input ground motion is modeled as spectral density function compatible with response spectrum for combination of acceleration coefficient and site coefficient. Failure probability is calculated by spectrum analysis based on random vibration theories to simplify repetitive calculations in the minimization procedure. Ductility of piers and its effects on cost effectiveness are considered by stochastic linearization method. Cost function and cost effectiveness index are defined by taking into consideration the characteristics of seismic isolated bridges. Limit states for calculation of failure probability are defined on superstructure, isolator and pier, respectively. The results of example design and analysis show that seismic isolation is more cost-effective in low and moderate seismic region than in high seismic region.

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Optimal Design of Water Distribution Networks using the Genetic Algorithms: (I) -Cost optimization- (Genetic Algorithm을 이용한 상수관망의 최적설계: (I) -비용 최적화를 중심으로-)

  • Shin, Hyun-Gon;Park, Hee-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.70-80
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    • 1998
  • Many algorithms to find a minimum cost design of water distribution network (WDN) have been developed during the last decades. Most of them have tried to optimize cost only while satisfying other constraining conditions. For this, a certain degree of simplification is required in their calculation process which inevitably limits the real application of the algorithms, especially, to large networks. In this paper, an optimum design method using the Genetic Algorithms (GA) is developed which is designed to increase the applicability, especially for the real world large WDN. The increased to applicability is due to the inherent characteristics of GA consisting of selection, reproduction, crossover and mutation. Just for illustration, the GA method is applied to find an optimal solution of the New York City water supply tunnel. For the calculation, the parameter of population size and generation number is fixed to 100 and the probability of crossover is 0.7, the probability of mutation is 0.01. The yielded optimal design is found to be superior to the least cost design obtained from the Linear Program method by $4.276 million.

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Analysis of Erlang Capacity for Multi-FA CDMA Systems Supporting Voice and Data Services (음성 및 데이터 서비스를 지원하는 다중 반송파 코드 분할 다중 접속방식 시스템의 얼랑 용량 분석)

  • 구인수;양정록;김태엽;김기선
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2000.06a
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    • pp.37-40
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    • 2000
  • As the number of CDMA subscribers increases, CDMA systems utilize more than one CDMA carrier In order to accommodate Increasing capacity requirement. In this paper, we present a new analytical method for evaluating the Erlang capacity of CDMA systems with multiple CDMA carriers. in the case of the algorithm proposed in 〔5〕, the calculation complexity for evaluating the call blocking probability Is increased proportionally to the sixth power of the number of used CDMA carriers when the CDMA system supports voice and data services. Consequently, It is Impractical to calculate Erlang capacity with the algorithm of 〔5〕especially when the number of used CDMA carriers is larger than 3. To resolve this problem, we propose a new analytical method for evaluating the Erlang capacity. The calculation complexity of the proposed method for evaluating call blocking probability is increased just proportionally to the second power of the number of used CDMA carriers when the CDMA systems support voice and data services.

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Detection of Changes of the Population Fraction Nonconforming in the p Control Chart (p관리도의 불량률의 변화 탐지)

  • Chang, Kyung;yang, Moon-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.74-85
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    • 1997
  • In this paper we calculate the subgroup size necessary for detecting the change of percent defective with several detection probabilities for orginal population fraction nonconforming p, changed population fraction nonconforming $p^*$, and the ratio k=$p^*$/p in the usage of p control charts. From our calculation we can know the error level of normal a, pp.oximation in detection probability calculation and recommend the subgroup size with lower error levels of normal a, pp.oximation, and then we show the reasonable subgroup size necessary for p, $p^*$, k, and the detection probability of the change of fraction nonconforming in a process. The information that we here show in tables will be useful when p control chart users decide the subgroup size in the p control chart users decide the subgroup size in the p control chart.

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Calculation of Total Transfer Capability Considering Uncertainty of Weather (불확실한 날씨 상태를 고려한 총 송전용량 계산)

  • Park, Jin-Wook;Kim, Kyu-Ho;Shin, Dong-Joon;Kim, Jin-O
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2005.07a
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    • pp.199-201
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    • 2005
  • This paper proposes a method to evaluate the TTC by considering uncertainty of weather. Impact of the contingency on the system performance could not be addressed in a deterministic way because of the random nature of the system equipment outage and the increase of outage probability according to weather condition. For this reasons, probabilistic approach is necessary to realize evaluation of TTC. This method uses a sequential MCS. In sequential simulation, the chronological behavior of the system is simulated by sampling sequence of the system operating states based on the probability distribution of the component state duration. Therefor, MCS is used to accomplish the probabilistic calculation of TTC with consideration of weather condition.

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Failure Rate Calculation using the Mixture Weibull Distribution (혼합 와이블 분포를 이용한 고장률 산출 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Chai, Hui-seok;Shin, Joong-woo;Lim, Tae-jin;Kim, Jae-chul
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.66 no.3
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    • pp.500-506
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    • 2017
  • In 2014, ISO 55000s has been enacted and the power plant asset management is becoming a hot issue for all over the world. The asset management system is being developed as a combination of CBM(Condition Based Maintenance) and RCM(Reliability Centered Maintenance). Therefore, the research on the calculation of the failure rate which is the most basic index of RCM is actively carried out. The failure rate calculation has been going on for a long time, and the most widely used probability distribution is the Weibull distribution. In the Weibull distribution, the failure rate function is determined in three types according to the value of the shape parameter. However, the Weibull distribution has a limitation that it is difficult to apply it when the trend of failure rate changes-such as bathtub curves. In this paper, the failure rate is calculated using the mixture Weibull distribution which can appropriately express the change of the shape of the failure rate. Based on these results, we propose the necessity and validity of applying mixture Weibull distribution.

Calculation of Top Event Probability of Fault Tree using BDD (BDD를 이용한 사고수목 정상사상확률 계산)

  • Cho, Byeong Ho;Yum, Byeoungsoo;Kim, Sangahm
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.654-662
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    • 2016
  • As the number of gates and basic events in fault trees increases, it becomes difficult to calculate the exact probability of the top event. In order to overcome this difficulty the BDD methodology can be used to calculate the exact top event probability for small and medium size fault trees in short time. Fault trees are converted to BDD by using CUDD library functions and a failure path search algorithm is proposed to calculate the exact top event probability. The backward search algorithm is more efficient than the forward one in finding failure paths and in the calculation of the top event probability. This backward search algorithm can reduce searching time in the identification of disjoint failure paths from BDD and can be considered as an effective tool to find the cut sets and the minimal cut sets for the given fault trees.

Evaluation of Dose Volume and Radiobiological Indices by the Dose Calculation Grid Size in Nasopharyngeal Cancer VMAT (비 인두암 체적 조절 호형 방사선 치료의 선량 계산 격자 크기에 따른 선량 체적 지수와 방사선 생물학적 지수의 평가)

  • Kang, Dong-Jin;Jung, Jae-Yong;Shin, Young-Joo;Min, Jung-Whan;Shim, Jae-Goo;Park, So-Hyun
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.265-272
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the dose-volume indices and radiobiological indices according to the change in dose calculation grid size during the planning of nasopharyngeal cancer VMAT treatment. After performing the VMAT treatment plan using the 3.0 mm dose calculation grid size, dose calculation from 1.0 mm to 5.0 mm was performed repeatedly to obtain a dose volume histogram. The dose volume index and radiobiological index were evaluated using the obtained dose volume histogram. The smaller the dose calculation grid size, the smaller the mean dose for CTV and the larger the mean dose for PTV. For OAR of spinal cord, brain stem, lens and parotid gland, the mean dose did not show a significant difference according to the change in dose calculation grid size. The smaller the grid size, the higher the conformity of the dose distribution as the CI of the PTV increases. The CI and HI showed the best results at 3.0 mm. The smaller the dose calculation grid size, the higher the TCP of the PTV. The smaller the dose calculation grid size, the lower the NTCP of lens and parotid. As a result, when performing the nasopharynx cancer VMAT plan, it was found that the dose calculation grid size should be determined in consideration of dose volume index, radiobiological index, and dose calculation time. According to the results of various experiments, it was determined that it is desirable to apply a grid size of 2.0 - 3.0 mm.

Calculation of Probability of System Failure for Pipe Network with Surge Tank regarding Unsteady Flow (Surge Tank가 설치된 상수도관망에서 부정류를 고려한 불능확률 산정)

  • Kwon, Hyuk Jae;Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2009
  • In the present study, a reliability analysis calculating the probability of system failure has been performed using cut set and results of numerical analysis for unsteady flow in pipe. Especially, the probability of system failure has been evaluated regarding the effect of valve closure which is a really important activity in operation of piping system. In spite of small amount of demand, it was found that fast valve closure can generate high probability of system failure. Furthermore, it was confirmed that surge tank can reduce the unsteady effects and probability of system failure in water distribution system. From the results, it was found that the unsteady flow has a significant effect on the probability of system failure Furthermore, it was able to find which pipe or cut set has high probability of system failure. So it could be used to determine which pipe or cut set has a priority of repair and replacement. Therefore, reliability analysis regarding unsteady flow has to be performed for the planning, designing, maintenance, and operation of piping system.

Collision Risk Probability Considerations for Small Divided Areas

  • Guk, Seung-Gi;Fukuda, Gen
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2013.10a
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    • pp.387-389
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    • 2013
  • In order to determine the collision risk, the probability estimation is very important part for accurate risk estimation. Recently, the collision risk at the Busan North Port is studied for making the risk map by authors. The result has been found some connections with previous collision places. For more precise estimation, the probability calculation is necessary. Recently the Bayesian matrix is mainly used for calculating the probabilities. Also considering the oil spill risk with tankers, ships' speed, relative angle and ships' size are key aspect whether breaking the double hull or not. This research presents the way of estimating the probabilities not her research and also the collision risk probability considerations for small divided areas.

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