• 제목/요약/키워드: probability calculation

검색결과 459건 처리시간 0.023초

중약진 지역에서의 지진격리교량의 비용효율성 평가 (Cost Effectiveness Evaluation of Seismic Isolated Bridges in Low and Moderate Seismic Region)

  • 고현무
    • 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지진공학회 2000년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집 Proceedings of EESK Conference-Fall 2000
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    • pp.440-447
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    • 2000
  • In order to evaluate the cost effectiveness of seismic isolation for bridges in low and moderate seismic region, a method of calculation minimum life-cycle cost of seismic-isolated bridges under specific acceleration level and soil condition is developed. Input ground motion is modeled as spectral density function compatible with response spectrum for combination of acceleration coefficient and site coefficient. Failure probability is calculated by spectrum analysis based on random vibration theories to simplify repetitive calculations in the minimization procedure. Ductility of piers and its effects on cost effectiveness are considered by stochastic linearization method. Cost function and cost effectiveness index are defined by taking into consideration the characteristics of seismic isolated bridges. Limit states for calculation of failure probability are defined on superstructure, isolator and pier, respectively. The results of example design and analysis show that seismic isolation is more cost-effective in low and moderate seismic region than in high seismic region.

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Genetic Algorithm을 이용한 상수관망의 최적설계: (I) -비용 최적화를 중심으로- (Optimal Design of Water Distribution Networks using the Genetic Algorithms: (I) -Cost optimization-)

  • 신현곤;박희경
    • 상하수도학회지
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.70-80
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    • 1998
  • Many algorithms to find a minimum cost design of water distribution network (WDN) have been developed during the last decades. Most of them have tried to optimize cost only while satisfying other constraining conditions. For this, a certain degree of simplification is required in their calculation process which inevitably limits the real application of the algorithms, especially, to large networks. In this paper, an optimum design method using the Genetic Algorithms (GA) is developed which is designed to increase the applicability, especially for the real world large WDN. The increased to applicability is due to the inherent characteristics of GA consisting of selection, reproduction, crossover and mutation. Just for illustration, the GA method is applied to find an optimal solution of the New York City water supply tunnel. For the calculation, the parameter of population size and generation number is fixed to 100 and the probability of crossover is 0.7, the probability of mutation is 0.01. The yielded optimal design is found to be superior to the least cost design obtained from the Linear Program method by $4.276 million.

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음성 및 데이터 서비스를 지원하는 다중 반송파 코드 분할 다중 접속방식 시스템의 얼랑 용량 분석 (Analysis of Erlang Capacity for Multi-FA CDMA Systems Supporting Voice and Data Services)

  • 구인수;양정록;김태엽;김기선
    • 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전자공학회 2000년도 하계종합학술대회 논문집(1)
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    • pp.37-40
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    • 2000
  • As the number of CDMA subscribers increases, CDMA systems utilize more than one CDMA carrier In order to accommodate Increasing capacity requirement. In this paper, we present a new analytical method for evaluating the Erlang capacity of CDMA systems with multiple CDMA carriers. in the case of the algorithm proposed in 〔5〕, the calculation complexity for evaluating the call blocking probability Is increased proportionally to the sixth power of the number of used CDMA carriers when the CDMA system supports voice and data services. Consequently, It is Impractical to calculate Erlang capacity with the algorithm of 〔5〕especially when the number of used CDMA carriers is larger than 3. To resolve this problem, we propose a new analytical method for evaluating the Erlang capacity. The calculation complexity of the proposed method for evaluating call blocking probability is increased just proportionally to the second power of the number of used CDMA carriers when the CDMA systems support voice and data services.

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p관리도의 불량률의 변화 탐지 (Detection of Changes of the Population Fraction Nonconforming in the p Control Chart)

  • 장경;양문희
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.74-85
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    • 1997
  • In this paper we calculate the subgroup size necessary for detecting the change of percent defective with several detection probabilities for orginal population fraction nonconforming p, changed population fraction nonconforming $p^*$, and the ratio k=$p^*$/p in the usage of p control charts. From our calculation we can know the error level of normal a, pp.oximation in detection probability calculation and recommend the subgroup size with lower error levels of normal a, pp.oximation, and then we show the reasonable subgroup size necessary for p, $p^*$, k, and the detection probability of the change of fraction nonconforming in a process. The information that we here show in tables will be useful when p control chart users decide the subgroup size in the p control chart users decide the subgroup size in the p control chart.

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불확실한 날씨 상태를 고려한 총 송전용량 계산 (Calculation of Total Transfer Capability Considering Uncertainty of Weather)

  • 박진욱;김규호;신동준;김진오
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2005년도 제36회 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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    • pp.199-201
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    • 2005
  • This paper proposes a method to evaluate the TTC by considering uncertainty of weather. Impact of the contingency on the system performance could not be addressed in a deterministic way because of the random nature of the system equipment outage and the increase of outage probability according to weather condition. For this reasons, probabilistic approach is necessary to realize evaluation of TTC. This method uses a sequential MCS. In sequential simulation, the chronological behavior of the system is simulated by sampling sequence of the system operating states based on the probability distribution of the component state duration. Therefor, MCS is used to accomplish the probabilistic calculation of TTC with consideration of weather condition.

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혼합 와이블 분포를 이용한 고장률 산출 기법에 관한 연구 (Failure Rate Calculation using the Mixture Weibull Distribution)

  • 채희석;신중우;임태진;김재철
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제66권3호
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    • pp.500-506
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    • 2017
  • In 2014, ISO 55000s has been enacted and the power plant asset management is becoming a hot issue for all over the world. The asset management system is being developed as a combination of CBM(Condition Based Maintenance) and RCM(Reliability Centered Maintenance). Therefore, the research on the calculation of the failure rate which is the most basic index of RCM is actively carried out. The failure rate calculation has been going on for a long time, and the most widely used probability distribution is the Weibull distribution. In the Weibull distribution, the failure rate function is determined in three types according to the value of the shape parameter. However, the Weibull distribution has a limitation that it is difficult to apply it when the trend of failure rate changes-such as bathtub curves. In this paper, the failure rate is calculated using the mixture Weibull distribution which can appropriately express the change of the shape of the failure rate. Based on these results, we propose the necessity and validity of applying mixture Weibull distribution.

BDD를 이용한 사고수목 정상사상확률 계산 (Calculation of Top Event Probability of Fault Tree using BDD)

  • 조병호;염병수;김상암
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.654-662
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    • 2016
  • 사고수목을 이루는 게이트나 기본사상이 많아질수록 정상사상 확률의 정확한 계산이 어려워진다. 이를 극복하기 위해 BDD 방법을 적용하면 중소형 사고수목의 경우 짧은 시간에 근사계산 없이 정확한 값을 구할 수 있다. CUDD 함수를 이용하여 사고수목을 BDD로 변환하고 그로부터 정상사상의 발생확률을 구하는 고장경로 탐색 알고리즘을 고안하였다. 후방탐색 알고리즘은 전방탐색 알고리즘보다 고장경로의 탐색과 확률계산 시간에서 효과적이다. 이 탐색 알고리즘은 BDD에서 고장경로를 찾는데 있어서 탐색시간을 줄일 수 있고, 해당 사고수목의 단절집합과 최소단절집합을 찾는 유용한 방법이다.

비 인두암 체적 조절 호형 방사선 치료의 선량 계산 격자 크기에 따른 선량 체적 지수와 방사선 생물학적 지수의 평가 (Evaluation of Dose Volume and Radiobiological Indices by the Dose Calculation Grid Size in Nasopharyngeal Cancer VMAT)

  • 강동진;정재용;신영주;민정환;심재구;박소현
    • 대한방사선기술학회지:방사선기술과학
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    • 제43권4호
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    • pp.265-272
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the dose-volume indices and radiobiological indices according to the change in dose calculation grid size during the planning of nasopharyngeal cancer VMAT treatment. After performing the VMAT treatment plan using the 3.0 mm dose calculation grid size, dose calculation from 1.0 mm to 5.0 mm was performed repeatedly to obtain a dose volume histogram. The dose volume index and radiobiological index were evaluated using the obtained dose volume histogram. The smaller the dose calculation grid size, the smaller the mean dose for CTV and the larger the mean dose for PTV. For OAR of spinal cord, brain stem, lens and parotid gland, the mean dose did not show a significant difference according to the change in dose calculation grid size. The smaller the grid size, the higher the conformity of the dose distribution as the CI of the PTV increases. The CI and HI showed the best results at 3.0 mm. The smaller the dose calculation grid size, the higher the TCP of the PTV. The smaller the dose calculation grid size, the lower the NTCP of lens and parotid. As a result, when performing the nasopharynx cancer VMAT plan, it was found that the dose calculation grid size should be determined in consideration of dose volume index, radiobiological index, and dose calculation time. According to the results of various experiments, it was determined that it is desirable to apply a grid size of 2.0 - 3.0 mm.

Surge Tank가 설치된 상수도관망에서 부정류를 고려한 불능확률 산정 (Calculation of Probability of System Failure for Pipe Network with Surge Tank regarding Unsteady Flow)

  • 권혁재;이철응
    • 상하수도학회지
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2009
  • In the present study, a reliability analysis calculating the probability of system failure has been performed using cut set and results of numerical analysis for unsteady flow in pipe. Especially, the probability of system failure has been evaluated regarding the effect of valve closure which is a really important activity in operation of piping system. In spite of small amount of demand, it was found that fast valve closure can generate high probability of system failure. Furthermore, it was confirmed that surge tank can reduce the unsteady effects and probability of system failure in water distribution system. From the results, it was found that the unsteady flow has a significant effect on the probability of system failure Furthermore, it was able to find which pipe or cut set has high probability of system failure. So it could be used to determine which pipe or cut set has a priority of repair and replacement. Therefore, reliability analysis regarding unsteady flow has to be performed for the planning, designing, maintenance, and operation of piping system.

Collision Risk Probability Considerations for Small Divided Areas

  • 국승기
    • 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항해항만학회 2013년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.387-389
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    • 2013
  • In order to determine the collision risk, the probability estimation is very important part for accurate risk estimation. Recently, the collision risk at the Busan North Port is studied for making the risk map by authors. The result has been found some connections with previous collision places. For more precise estimation, the probability calculation is necessary. Recently the Bayesian matrix is mainly used for calculating the probabilities. Also considering the oil spill risk with tankers, ships' speed, relative angle and ships' size are key aspect whether breaking the double hull or not. This research presents the way of estimating the probabilities not her research and also the collision risk probability considerations for small divided areas.

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