• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.317-328
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• 2002

We first derive group ordering reference priors in a two-way mixed-effects analysis of variance (ANOVA) model. We show that posterior distributions are proper and provide marginal posterior distributions under reference priors. We also examine whether the reference priors satisfy the probability matching criterion. Finally, the reference prior satisfying the probability matching criterion is shown to be good in the sense of frequentist coverage probability of the posterior quantile.

• The Mathematical Education
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.561-577
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• 2003

Because statistical concepts are important parts in school mathematics, mathematics teachers have trained by special education model. In this study, a desirable direction of curriculum on probability and statistics at pre-service for mathematics teacher is considered. We proposed four subjects as Exploration and Analysis of Data for Mathematics Teacher, Probability and Statistics I, II for Mathematics Teacher and Statistical Software for Mathematics, and suggested the constituents and something being kept in mind for each subject.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.1183-1191
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• 2018

Reliability analysis is generally regarded as the most appropriate method when uncertainties are taken into account in slope designs. With the help of limit analysis, probability evaluation for three-dimensional rock slope stability was conducted based upon the Mote Carlo method. The nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion was employed to reflect the practical strength characteristics of rock mass. A form of stability factor is used to perform reliability analysis for rock slopes. Results show that the variation of strength uncertainties has significant influence on probability of failure for rock slopes, as well as strength constants. It is found that the relationship between probability of failure and mean safety factor is independent of the magnitudes of input parameters but relative to the variability of variables. Due to the phenomenon, curves displaying this relationship can provide guidance for designers to obtain factor of safety according to required failure probability.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.306-309
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• 2008

A system realization for video surveillance with interframe probability distribution analysis is presented in this paper. The system design is based on a high performance DSP processor, video surveillance is implemented by analyzing interframe probability distribution for scanning objects in a restricted area and the video analysis algorithm is decided for forming a different image from the probability distribution of several frames compressed by the standardized JPEG. The algorithm processing time of D1($720{\times}480$) image per frame is 85ms.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.1169-1179
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• 2011

Through social network analysis using portal site information, we study the relation of the probability distributions that appear in statistics textbooks with probability distributions that appear in daily life. Based on daily life, we discuss probability distributions that must be emphasized in frequent use.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.2037-2047
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• 1991

Strength is not simply a single given value but rather is a statistical one with certain distribution functions. This is because it is affected by many unknown factors such as size, shape, stress distribution, and combined stresses. In this study, a model of loss probability is proposed in view of the fact that one of the fundamental configuration of nature is hexagonal, for example, the shapes of lattice unit, grain, and so on. The model sues the concept of loss of certain element in place of Jayatilaka-Trustrum's length and angle of cracks. Using this model, the loss probability due to each loss of certain elements is obtained. Then, the maximum principal stress is calculated by the finite element method at the centroid of the elements under the tensile load for the 4,095 models of analysis. Finally, the failure probability of the brittle materials is obtained by multiplying the loss probability by the ratio of the maximum principal stress to theoretical tensile strength. Comparison of the result of the Jayatilaka-Trustrum's model and the proposed model shows that the failure probabilities by the two methods are in good agreement. Further, it is shown that the parametric relationship of semi-crack lengths for various degrees of birittleness can be determined. Therefore, the analysis of the failure probability suing the proposed model is shown to be promising as a new method for the study of the failure probability of birttle materials.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.193-202
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• 2018

This paper studied the probability of pounding occurred between decks and abutments of a long span high-pier continuous rigid fame bridge subjected to ground motions with local soil effect. A pounding probability analysis methodology has been proposed using peak acceleration at bedrock as intensity measure (IM) for multi-support seismic analysis. The bridge nonlinear finite element (FE) models was built with four different separation distances. Effect of actual site condition and non-uniform spatial soil profiles on seismic wave propagating from bedrock to ground surface is modelled. Pounding probability of the high-pier bridge under multi-support seismic excitations (MSSE) is analyzed based on the nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis (n-IDA). Pounding probability results under uniform excitations (UE) without actual local site effect are compared with that under MSSE with site effect. The study indicates that the required design separation length between deck and abutment under uniform excitations is larger than that under MSSE as the peak acceleration at bedrock increases. As the increase of both separation distance between deck and abutment and the peak acceleration, the probability of pounding occurred at a single abutment or at two abutments simultaneously under MSSE is less than that under UE. It is of great significance considering actual local site effect for determining the separation distance between deck and abutment through the probability pounding analysis of the high-pier bridge under MSSE.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.425-436
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• 2018

The design of seismically isolated structures considering the stochastic nature of excitations, base isolators' design parameters, and superstructure properties requires robust reliability analysis methods to calculate the failure probability of the entire system. Here, by applying artificial neural networks, we proposed a robust technique to accelerate the estimation of failure probability of equipped isolated structures. A three-story isolated building with susceptible facilities is considered as the analytical model to evaluate our technique. First, we employed a sensitivity analysis method to identify the critical sources of uncertainty. Next, we calculated the probability of failure for a particular set of random variables, performing Monte Carlo simulations based on the dynamic nonlinear time-history analysis. Finally, using a set of designed neural networks as a surrogate model for the structural analysis, we assessed once again the probability of the failure. Comparing the obtained results demonstrates that the surrogate model can attain precise estimations of the probability of failure. Moreover, our proposed approach significantly increases the computational efficiency corresponding to the dynamic time-history analysis of the structure.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.243-251
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• 2020

In seismic design standards such as KDS 41 17 00 and ASCE 7, three procedures are provided to estimate seismic demands: equivalent lateral force (ELF), response spectrum analysis (RSA), and response history analysis (RHA). In this study, two steel special moment frames (SMFs) were designed with ELF and RSA, which have been commonly used in engineering practice. The collapse probabilities of the SMFs were evaluated according to FEMA P695 methodology. It was observed that collapse probabilities varied significantly in accordance with analysis procedures. SMFs designed with RSA (RSA-SMFs) had a higher probability of collapse than SMFs designed with ELF (ELF-SMFs). Furthermore, RSA-SMFs did not satisfy the target collapse probability specified in ASCE 7-16 whereas ELF-SMFs met the target probability.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.321-327
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• 2011

Bootstrap methods is the computer-based resampling method that estimates the standard errors and confidence intervals of summary statistics using the plug-in principle for assessing the accuracy or uncertainty of statistical estimates, and the BCa method among the Bootstrap methods is known much superior to other Bootstrap methods in respect of the standards of statistical validation. Therefore this study suggests the method of the representation and treatment of uncertainty in flood risk assessment and water resources planning from the construction and application of rainfall frequency analysis model considersing the uncertainty based on the nonparametric BCa method among the Bootstrap methods for the assessement of the estimation of probability rainfall and the effect of uncertainty considering the uncertainty of the parameter estimation of probability in the rainfall frequency analysis that is the most fundamental in flood risk assessement and water resources planning.