• Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.53-64
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• 2021

Wargame is a simulated military operation with certain rules, specifications, and procedures, in which soldiers can virtually and indirectly experience the war. The ROK Navy operates the Cheonghae model, a training wargame model for helping commanders and staff master the procedures for conducting the war. It is important for commanders, staff and analysts to know whether a warship can perform its missions and how long it can last during a war. In existing model, the Cheonghae, the probability of kill of a warship is calculated simply considering the number of tonnage without any stochastic elements, and the warship's mission availability is also determined based on predetermined values. With this model, it is difficult to get a value of the probability of kill that makes sense. In this dissertation, the author has developed a probabilistic model in which the warship vulnerability data of ROK-JMEM can be used. A conceptual model and methodology that can evaluate the mission performance of personnel, equipment, and supplies has been proposed. This can be expanded to a comprehensive assessment of wartime warship loss rates by integrating damage rates for personnel, equipment, and supplies in wartime.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.82 no.3
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• pp.385-400
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• 2022

Sky-bridges between adjacent buildings can enhance lateral stiffness and limit the impact of lateral forces. This study analysed the structural capabilities and dynamic performances of sky-bridge-coupled buildings under various sets of ground motions. Finite Element (FE) analyses were carried out with the link being iteratively repositioned along the full height of the structures. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) and probabilistic damage distribution were also applied. The results indicated that the establishment of sky-bridges caused a slight change in the natural frequency and mode shapes. The sky-bridge system was shown to be efficient in controlling displacement and Inter-Storey Drift Ratio (%ISDR) and reducing the probability of damage in the higher floors. The most efficient location of the sky-bridge, for improving its rigidity, was found to be at 88% of the building height. Finally, the effects of two types of materials (steel and concrete) and end conditions (hinged and fixed) were studied. The outcomes showed that coupled buildings with a sky-bridge made of steel with hinged connection could withstand ground motions longer than those made of concrete with fixed connection.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.203-214
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• 2018

Predictive demand and collapse fragility functions are two essential components of the probabilistic seismic demand analysis that are commonly developed based on statistics with enormous, costly and time consuming data gathering. Although this approach might be justified for research purposes, it is not appealing for practical applications because of its computational cost. Thus, in this paper, Bayesian regression-based demand and collapse models are proposed to eliminate the need of time-consuming analyses. The demand model developed in the form of linear equation predicts overall maximum inter-story drift of the lowto mid-rise regular steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs), while the collapse model mathematically expressed by lognormal cumulative distribution function provides collapse occurrence probability for a given spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure. Next, as an application, the proposed demand and collapse functions are implemented in a seismic fragility analysis to develop fragility and consequently seismic demand curves of three example buildings. The accuracy provided by utilization of the proposed models, with considering computation reduction, are compared with those directly obtained from Incremental Dynamic analysis, which is a computer-intensive procedure.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.497-507
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• 2017

Flooding induced scour has been long recognized as a major hazard to river-crossing bridges. Many studies in recent years have attempted to evaluate the effects of scour on the seismic performance of bridges, and probabilistic frameworks are usually adopted. However, direct and straightforward insight about how foundation scour affects bridges as a type of soil-foundation-structure system is usually understated. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of applied methods centering around seismic assessment of scoured bridges considering soil-foundation-structure interaction. When introducing these applied analysis and modeling methods, a simple bridge model is provided to demonstrate the use of these methods as a case study. Particularly, we propose the use of nonlinear modal pushover analysis as a rapid technique to model scoured bridge systems, and numerical validation and application of this procedure are given using the simple bridge model. All methods reviewed in this paper can serve as baseline components for performing probabilistic vulnerability or risk assessment for any river-crossing bridge system subject to flood-induced scour and earthquakes.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.52 no.6
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• pp.573-586
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• 2019

A seismic hazard map based on spatial analysis of various sources of geologic seismic information was developed and assessed for regional seismic vulnerability in South Korea. The indicators for assessment were selected in consideration of the geological characteristics affecting the seismic damage. Probabilistic seismic hazard and fault information were used to be associated with the seismic activity hazard and bedrock depth related with the seismic damage hazard was also included. Each indicator was constructed of spatial information using GIS and geostatistical techniques such as ordinary kriging, line density mapping and simple kriging with local varying means. Three spatial information constructed were integrated by assigning weights according to the research purpose, data resolution and accuracy. In the case of probabilistic seismic hazard and fault line density, since the data uncertainty was relatively high, only the trend was intended to be reflected firstly. Finally, the seismic activity hazard was calculated and then integrated with the bedrock depth distribution as seismic damage hazard indicator. As a result, a seismic hazard map was proposed based on the analysis of three spatial data and the southeast and northwest regions of South Korea were assessed as having high seismic hazard. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for constructing seismic risk management systems to minimize earthquake disasters.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.517-538
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• 2016

This paper presents a probabilistic fragility analysis for two groups of bridges: simply supported and integral bridges. Comparisons are based on the seismic fragility of the bridges subjected to accelerograms of two seismic sources. Three-dimensional finite-element models of the bridges were created for each set of bridge samples, considering the nonlinear behaviour of critical bridge components. When the seismic hazard in the site is controlled by a few seismic sources, it is important to quantify separately the contribution of each fault to the structure vulnerability. In this study, seismic records come from earthquakes that originated in strike-slip and reverse faulting mechanisms. The influence of the earthquake mechanism on the seismic vulnerability of the bridges was analysed by considering the displacement ductility of the piers. An in-depth parametric study was conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the bridges' seismic responses to variations of structural parameters. The analysis showed that uncertainties related to the presence of lap splices in columns and superstructure type in terms of integral or simply supported spans should be considered in the fragility analysis of the bridge system. Finally, the fragility curves determine the conditional probabilities that a specific structural demand will reach or exceed the structural capacity by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) and acceleration spectrum intensity (ASI). The results also show that the simply supported bridges perform consistently better from a seismic perspective than integral bridges and focal mechanism of the earthquakes plays an important role in the seismic fragility analysis of highway bridges.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.32-40
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• 2005

Recent earthquakes over magnitude 5 in the eastern coast of Korea have aroused interests in the earthquake analyses and seismic design of breakwater structures. Most of earthquake analysis methods such as equivalent static analysis, response spectrum analysis, nonlinear analysis, and capacity analysis methods are deterministic and have been used for seismic design and performance evaluation of breakwater structures. However, deterministic methods are difficult to reflect one of the most important characteristics of earthquakes, i.e. the uncertainty of earthquakes. This paper presents results of probabilistic seismic risk assessment(PSRA) of an actual caisson type breakwater structure considering uncertainties of earthquake occurrences and soil properties. First the seismic vulnerability of a structure and the seismic hazard of the site are evaluated using earthquake sets and seismic hazard map, and then seismic risk of the structure is assessed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.105-117
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• 2010

The topographical depressions in urban areas, the lack in drainage capability, sewage backward flow, road drainage, etc. cause internal inundation, and the increase in rainfall resulting from recent climate change, the rapid urbanization accompanied by economic development and population growth, and the increase in an impervious area in urban areas deteriorate the risk of internal inundation in the urban areas. In this study, the vulnerability of internal inundation in urban areas is analyzed and SWMM model is applied into Oncheoncheon watershed, which represents urban river of Busan, as a target basin. Based on the results, the representative storm sewers in individual sub-catchments is selected and the risk of vulnerability to internal inundation due to rainfall in urban streams is analyzed. In order to analyze the risk and vulnerability of internal inundation, capacity is applied as an index indicating the volume of a storm sewer in the SWMM model, and the risk of internal inundation is into 4 steps. For the analysis on the risk of internal inundation, simulation results by using a SMMM model are compared with the actual inundation areas resulting from localized heavy rain on July 7, 2009 at Busan and comparison results are analyzed to prove the validity of the designed model. Accordingly, probabilistic rainfall at Busan was input to the model for each frequency (10, 20, 50, 100 years) and duration (6, 12, 18, 24hr) at Busan. In this study, it suggests that the findings can be used to preliminarily alarm the possibility of internal inundation and selecting the vulnerable zones in urban areas.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.387-394
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• 2017

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) requires a large number of simulations to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of structural and nonstructural components in nuclear power plants. The effect of structural modeling and analysis assumptions on dynamic analysis of 3D and simplified 2D stick models of auxiliary buildings and the attached nonstructural components is investigated. Dynamic characteristics and seismic performance of building models are also evaluated, as well as the computational accuracy of the models. The presented results provide a better understanding of the dynamic behavior and seismic performance of auxiliary buildings. The results also help to quantify the impact of uncertainties associated with modeling and analysis of simplified numerical models of structural and nonstructural components subjected to seismic shaking on the predicted seismic failure probabilities of these systems.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.200-214
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• 1996

In this paper, the problem of determining the probability of kill(or survival) of a vulnerable target by one or more missiles is considered. The general formulas are obtained for the kill or survival probability the target is killed or survival. Several well-known concepts such as those of vulnerability, lethality, multi-component target, and a general combinatorial theorem of probability are introduced and used. For the convenience in this paper, the word missile is used in a very general sense and the target is generally taken to be a point target. And, this paper, is concentrated primarily with the probabilistic aspects of the problem, also a general numerical procedures are also described. Two examples are shown to illustrate the use of some of the formulas in this study, but also illustrate a few points which may not have been sufficiently emphasized. The extension study to complete a software package will be followed.