• 콘크리트학회지
• /
• 제10권6호
• /
• pp.149-159
• /
• 1998

프리스트레스트 콘크리트 박스 거더 교량의 장기거동의 정확한 예측은 시공중 및 완공후의 사용성 확보를 위해서 매우 중요하다. 이러한 장기거동은 콘크리트의 크리프와 건조수축등의 확률특성에 따라 크게 영향을 받는다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 박스거더 교량에서의 크리프와 건조수축효과의 불확실성 및 민감도 해석에 관한 연구를 수행하였다. 콘크리트의 크리프와 건조수축효과의 불확실성은 입력이자의 변동성을 고려하여 산출한다. 불확실성 및 민감도 해석은 Latin Hypercube 샘플링 기법에 의해 수행하며, 각 샘플에 대하여 시간 의존적 구조해석을 하여 그 결과를 통계학적으로 분석한다. 본 연구에서는 각 입력인자의 구조해석 결과에 대한 민감도를 정량화 하기 위하여 3가지 즉, RCC, PRCC 와 SRCC 상관계수를 사용하여 민감도 해석을 수행하였다. 현재, 주로 교량설계시 사용되는 ACI모델, CEB-FIP모델과 도로교 표준시방서 모델의 민감도 분석을 수행한결과 크리프 모델 자체의 불확실성과 상대습도가 시간에 따른 변형에 가장 중요한 영향인자인 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서는 장기거동에 영향을 미치는 주요인자를 도출하는 합리적인 해석기법을 정립하였으며, 이로부터 좀 더 합리적인 모델정립에 유용한 토대가 될 것으로 사료된다.

• 품질경영학회지
• /
• 제14권1호
• /
• pp.33-38
• /
• 1986

This paper deals with probabilistic order level inventory system which the quantity ordered at the end of the scheduling period is dependent on lead times. To find an optimal solution, pearson system of distributions is used to approximate the probability density function of the on-order quantity. An example is solved and sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the relation between lead times and the ordering quantity.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국철도학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.423-426
• /
• 2011

The excessive axial load occurred in an immovable zone of continuous welded rail(CWR) tracks threatens the security of running trains due to the track buckling in extreme hot summer. The influence factors, such as rail temperature for compressive stress, ballast resistance for track stiffness and initial imperfection of track for tracks irregularity are uncertain track parameters that are randomly varied by climate conditions, operating conditions and maintenance of track etc. So, buckling of CWR tracks has very high uncertainties. Therefore, applying the probabilistic approach method is essential in order to rationally consider the uncertainty and randomness of the various parameters. In this study, buckling sensitivity analysis was carried out with respect to the characteristics of probability distribution of lateral ballast resistance using the buckling probability evaluation system of CWR tracks developed by our research team.

• 수산해양기술연구
• /
• 제32권4호
• /
• pp.432-446
• /
• 1996

A stochastic Hamilton variational principle(SHVP) is formulated for dynamic problems of linear continuum. The SHVP allows incorporation of probabilistic distributions into the finite element analysis. The formulation is simplified by transformation of correlated random variables to a set of uncorrelated random variables through a standard eigenproblem. A procedure based on the Fourier analysis and synthesis is presented for eliminating secularities from the perturbation approach. In addition to, a method to analyse stochastic design sensitivity for structural dynamics is present. A combination of the adjoint variable approach and the second order perturbation method is used in the finite element codes. An alternative form of the constraint functional that holds for all times is introduced to consider the time response of dynamic sensitivity. The algorithms developed can readily be adapted to existing deterministic finite element codes. The numerical results for stochastic analysis by proceeding approach of cantilever, 2D-frame and 3D-frame illustrates in this paper.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
• /
• 제5A권4호
• /
• pp.322-330
• /
• 2005

This paper proposes methods to incorporate station related aging failures in composite system reliability assessment. Aging failures of station components, such as circuit breakers and bus bars, are a major concern in composite power system planning and operation as an increasing number of station components approach the wear-out phase. This paper presents probabilistic models for circuit breakers involving aging failures and relevant evaluation techniques to examine the effects of station related aging outages. The technique developed to incorporate station related aging failures are illustrated by application to a small composite test system. The paper illustrates the effects of circuit breaker aging outages on bulk system reliability evaluation and examines the relative effects of variations in component age. System sensitivity analysis is illustrated by varying selected component parameters. The results show the implications of including component aging failure considerations in the overall analysis of a composite system.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
• /
• 제6권1호
• /
• pp.73-79
• /
• 2005

This paper, introduces a Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS III) developed by the author to predict a project completion probability in a certain time. The system integrates deterministic CPM, probabilistic PERT, and stochastic Discrete Event Simulation (DES) scheduling methods into one system. It implements automated statistical analysis methods for computing the minimum number of simulation runs, the significance of the difference between independent simulations, and the confidence interval for the mean project duration as well as sensitivity analysis method in What-if analyzer component. The SPSS 111 gives the several benefits to researchers in that it (1) complements PERT and Monte Carlo simulation by using stochastic activity durations via a web based JAVA simulation over the Internet, (2) provides a way to model a project network having different probability distribution functions, (3) implements statistical analyses method which enable to produce a reliable prediction of the probability of completing a project in a specified time, and (4) allows researchers to compare the outcome of CPM, PERT and DES under different variability or skewness in the activity duration data.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
• /
• 제15권2호
• /
• pp.101-112
• /
• 1990

For the performance assessment of the radioactive waste disposal system (repository), a biosphere model is suggested. This biosphere model is intended to calculate the annual doses to man caused by the contaminated river water for eight pathways and four radionuclides. This model can also be applied to assess the radiological effects of contaminated well water. To account for the uncertainties on the model parameter values, parameter distributions are assigned to these model parameters. Then, Monte Carlo simulation method with Latin Hypercube sampling technique is used. Also, sensitivity analysis is performed by using the Spearman rank correlation coefficients. It is found that these methods are a very useful tool to treat uncertainties and sensitivities on the model parameter values and to analyze the biosphere model. A conversion factor is proposed to calculate the annual dose rate to humans arising from a unit radionuclide concentration in river water. This conversion factor allows for the substitution of the biosphere model in a probabilistic performance assessment computer code by one single variable.

• 한국안전학회지
• /
• 제29권3호
• /
• pp.136-142
• /
• 2014

Recently a new version of PRO-LOCA program was released. Using the program, failure probability of pipes can be evaluated considering fatigue and/or stress corrosion crack growth and the effects of various parameters on the integrity of pipes in nuclear power plants can be evaluated quantitatively. The analysis results can be used to establish an inspection plan and to examine the effects of important parameters in a maintenance plan. In this study, sensitivity analyses were performed using the program for several important parameters including sampling method, initial crack size, number of initial fabrication flaws, operation temperature, inspection interval, operation temperature and nominal applied bending stress. The effect of parameters on the leak and rupture probability of pipes was evaluated due to fatigue or stress corrosion crack growth.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한전기학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
• /
• pp.67-70
• /
• 2003

In recent, the importance and necessity of some studies on reliability evaluation of grid come from the recent black-out accidents occurred in the world. The quantity evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important under competitive electricity environment. The reason is that the successful operation of electric power under the deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management. The various results of many case studies for the IEEE 25buses system using the Transmission Reliability Evaluation for Large-Scale Systems(TRELSS) Version 5_1, a program made in EPRI are introduced in this paper. Some sensitivity analysis has been included. This paper suggests that the some important input parameters of the TRELSS can be determined optimally from this sensitivity analysis for high reliability level operation of a system.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국지진공학회 2003년도 추계 학술발표회논문집
• /
• pp.36-45
• /
• 2003

Sensitivity analyses for several seismic source models were studied. For the area sources, the hazard is steeply decreasing with the source-to-site distance. Hazard is decreasing when the area of the source is increasing with fixed annual rate. For the fault sources, the fault length, distance from a site and dip angle of near fault show very sensitive effect to seismic hazard. But the various magnitude-rupture length relationships show effect to seismic hazard slightly. For the fault source with small magnitude, the exponential model is preferred rather than the characteristic model to the magnitude-recurrence law.