• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.641-652
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• 2019

This paper investigates the effect of aftershocks on the seismic performance of self-centering (SC) prestressed concrete frames using the probabilistic seismic demand analysis methodology. For this purpose, a 4-story SC concrete frame and a conventional reinforced concrete (RC) frame are designed and numerically analyzed through nonlinear dynamic analyses based on a set of as-recorded mainshock-aftershock seismic sequences. The peak and residual story drifts are selected as the demand parameters. The probabilistic seismic demand models of the SC and RC frames are compared, and the SC frame is found to have less dispersion of peak and residual story drifts. The results of drift demand hazard analyses reveal that the SC frame experiences lower peak story drift hazards and significantly reduced residual story drift hazards than the RC frame when subjected to the mainshocks only or the mainshock-aftershock sequences, which demonstrates the advantages of the SC frame over the RC frame. For both the SC and RC frames, the influence of as-recorded aftershocks on the drift demand hazards is small. It is shown that artificial aftershocks can produce notably increased drift demand hazards of the RC frame, while the incremental effect of artificial aftershocks on the drift demand hazards of the SC frame is much smaller. It is also found that aftershock polarity does not influence the drift demand hazards of both the SC and RC frames.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.151-173
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• 2020

This paper aims to probabilistically evaluate performance of two types of I beam to box column (IBBC) connection. With the objective of considering the variability of seismic loading demand, statistical features of the inter-story drift ratio corresponding to the second, fifth and eleventh story of a 12-story steel special moment resisting frames are extracted through incremental dynamic analysis at global collapse state. Variability of geometrical variables and material strength are also taken into account. All of these random variables are exported as inputs to a probabilistic finite element model which simulates the connection. At the end, cumulative distribution functions of local seismic demand for each component of each connection are provided using histogram sampling. Through a parametric study on probabilistic local seismic demand, the influence of some geometrical random variables on the performance of IBBC connections is demonstrated. Furthermore, the probabilistic study revealed that IBBC connection with widened flange has a better performance than the un-widened flange. Also, a design procedure is proposed for WF connections to achieve a same connection performance in different stories.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.4 no.5
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• pp.527-555
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• 2013

This paper proposes probabilistic models for estimating the seismic demands on reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with base isolation. The models consider the shear and deformation demands on the bridge columns and the deformation demand on the isolation devices. An experimental design is used to generate a population of bridges based on the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications (AASHTO 2007) and the Caltrans' Seismic Design Criteria (Caltrans 1999). Ground motion records are used for time history analysis of each bridge to develop probabilistic models that are practical and are able to account for the uncertainties and biases in the current, common deterministic model. As application of the developed probabilistic models, a simple method is provided to determine the fragility of bridges. This work facilitates the reliability-based design for this type of bridges and contributes to the transition from limit state design to performance-based design.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.221-230
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• 2017

One of the important phases of probabilistic performance-based methodology is establishing appropriate probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs). These demand models relate ground motion intensity measures (IMs) to demand measures (DMs). The objective of this paper is selection of the optimal IMs in probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA) of the RC high-rise buildings. In selection process features such as: efficiency, practically, proficiency and sufficiency are considered. RC high-rise buildings with core wall structural system are selected as a case study building class with the three characteristic heights: 20-storey, 30-storey and 40-storey. In order to determine the most optimal IMs, 720 nonlinear time-history analyses are conducted for 60 ground motion records with a wide range of magnitudes and distances to source, and for various soil types, thus taking into account uncertainties during ground motion selection. The non-linear 3D models of the case study buildings are constructed. A detailed regression analysis and statistical processing of results are performed and appropriate PSDMs for the RC high-rise building are derived. Analyzing a large number of results it are adopted conclusions on the optimality of individual ground motion IMs for the RC high-rise building.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.379-393
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to first evaluate the seismic behavior of ageing arch bridges by using the Intensity Measure - based demand and DCFD format, which is referred to as the fragility-hazard format. Then, an investigation is performed for their seismic vulnerability. Analytical models are created for bridges concerning different features and these models are subjected to Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) analysis using a set of 22 earthquake records. The hazard curve and results of IDA analysis are employed to evaluate the return period of exceeding the limit states in the IM-based probabilistic performance-based context. Subsequently, the fragility-hazard format is used to assess factored demand, factored capacity, and the ratio of the factored demand to the factored capacity of the models with respect to different performance objectives. Finally, the vulnerability curves are obtained for the investigated bridges in terms of the loss ratio. The results revealed that decreasing the span length of the unreinforced arch bridges leads to the increase in the return period of exceeding various limit states and factored capacity and decrease in the displacement demand, the probability of failure, the factored demand, as well as the factored demand to factored capacity ratios, loss ratio, and seismic vulnerability. Finally, it is derived that the probability of the need for rehabilitation increases by an increase in the span length of the models.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.93-107
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• 2016

Seismic fragility analysis is a probabilistic decision-making framework which is widely implemented for evaluating vulnerability of a building under earthquake loading. It requires ingredient named probabilistic model and commonly developed using statistics requiring collecting data in large quantities. Preparation of such a data-base is often costly and time-consuming. Therefore, in this paper, by developing generic seismic drift demand model for regular-multi-story steel moment resisting frames is tried to present a novel application of the probabilistic decision-making analysis to practical purposes. To this end, a demand model which is a linear function of intensity measure in logarithmic space is developed to predict overall maximum inter-story drift. Next, the model is coupled with a set of regression-based equations which are capable of directly estimating unknown statistical characteristics of the model parameters.To explicitly address uncertainties arise from randomness and lack of knowledge, the Bayesian regression inference is employed, when these relations are developed. The developed demand model is then employed in a Seismic Fragility Analysis (SFA) for two designed building. The accuracy of the results is also assessed by comparison with the results directly obtained from Incremental Dynamic analysis.

• Advances in concrete construction
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.337-343
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• 2020

In the present study, by employing fragility analysis, the seismic vulnerability of a concrete girder bridge, one of the most common existing structural bridge systems, has been performed. To this end, drift demand model as a fundamental ingredient of any probabilistic decision-making analyses is initially developed in terms of the two most common intensity measures, i.e., PGA and Sa (T₁). Developing a probabilistic demand model requires a reliable database that is established in this paper by performing incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) under a set of 20 ground motion records. Next, by employing Bayesian statistical inference drift demand models are developed based on pre-collapse data obtained from IDA. Then, the accuracy and reasonability of the developed models are investigated by plotting diagnosis graphs. This graphical analysis demonstrates probabilistic demand model developed in terms of PGA is more reliable. Afterward, fragility curves according to PGA based-demand model are developed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.91-99
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• 2019

Fragility analysis is an effective tool that is frequently used for seismic risk assessment of bridges. There are three different approaches to derive a fragility curve: experimental, empirical and analytical. Both experimental and empirical methods to derive fragility curve are based on past earthquake reports and expert opinions which are not suitable for all bridges. Therefore, analytical fragility analysis becomes important. Nonlinear time history analysis is commonly used which is the most reliable method for determining probabilistic demand models. In this study, to determine the probabilistic demand models of bridges, time history analyses were performed considering both material and geometrical nonlinearities. Serviceability limit states for three different service velocities were considered as a performance goal. Also, support displacements, component yielding and collapse limits were taken into account. Both serviceability and component fragility were derived by using maximum likely hood methods. Finally, the seismic performance and critical members of the bridge were probabilistically determined and clearly presented.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.203-214
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• 2018

Predictive demand and collapse fragility functions are two essential components of the probabilistic seismic demand analysis that are commonly developed based on statistics with enormous, costly and time consuming data gathering. Although this approach might be justified for research purposes, it is not appealing for practical applications because of its computational cost. Thus, in this paper, Bayesian regression-based demand and collapse models are proposed to eliminate the need of time-consuming analyses. The demand model developed in the form of linear equation predicts overall maximum inter-story drift of the lowto mid-rise regular steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs), while the collapse model mathematically expressed by lognormal cumulative distribution function provides collapse occurrence probability for a given spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure. Next, as an application, the proposed demand and collapse functions are implemented in a seismic fragility analysis to develop fragility and consequently seismic demand curves of three example buildings. The accuracy provided by utilization of the proposed models, with considering computation reduction, are compared with those directly obtained from Incremental Dynamic analysis, which is a computer-intensive procedure.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.105-123
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• 2016

In this paper, using the probabilistic methods, the seismic demand of buckling restrained braced frames subjected to earthquake was evaluated. In this regards, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14-storybuildings with different buckling restrained brace configuration (including diagonal, split X, chevron V and Inverted V bracings) were designed. Because of the inherent uncertainties in the earthquake records, incremental dynamical analysis was used to evaluate seismic performance of the structures. Using the results of incremental dynamical analysis, the "capacity of a structure in terms of first mode spectral acceleration", "fragility curve" and "mean annual frequency of exceeding a limit state" was determined. "Mean annual frequency of exceeding a limit state" has been estimated for immediate occupancy (IO) and collapse prevention (CP) limit states using both Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) and solution "based on displacement" in the Demand and Capacity Factor Design (DCFD) form. Based on analysis results, the inverted chevron (${\Lambda}$) buckling restrained braced frame has the largest capacity among the considered buckling restrained braces. Moreover, it has the best performance among the considered buckling restrained braces. Also, from fragility curves, it was observed that the fragility probability has increased with the height.