• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.265-271
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• 2015

The tsunami hazard analysis is performed for testing the application of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis to nuclear power plant sites in the Korean Peninsula. Tsunami hazard analysis is based on the seismic hazard analysis. Probabilistic method is adopted for considering the uncertainties caused by insufficient information of tsunamigenic fault sources. Logic tree approach is used. Uljin nuclear power plant (NPP) site is selected for this study. The tsunamigenic fault sources in the western part of Japan (East Sea) are used for this study because those are well known fault sources in the East Sea and had several records of tsunami hazards. We have performed numerical simulations of tsunami propagation for those fault sources in the previous study. Therefore we use the wave parameters obtained from the previous study. We follow the method of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) suggested by the atomic energy society of Japan (AESJ). Annual exceedance probabilities for wave height level are calculated for the site by using the information about the recurrence interval, the magnitude range, the wave parameters, the truncation of lognormal distribution of wave height, and the deviation based on the difference between simulation and record. Effects of each parameters on tsunami hazard are tested by the sensitivity analysis, which shows that the recurrence interval and the deviation dominantly affects the annual exceedance probability and the wave heigh level, respectively.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.873-889
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• 2015

In civil engineering, probabilistic seismic risk assessment is used to predict the economic damage to a lifeline system of possible future earthquakes. The results are used to plan mitigation measures and to strengthen the structures where necessary. Instead, after an earthquake public authorities need mathematical models that compute: the damage caused by the earthquake to the individual vulnerable components and links, and the global behavior of the lifeline system. In this study, a framework that was developed and used for prediction purpose is modified to assess the consequences of an earthquake in quasi real-time after such earthquake happened. This is possible because nowadays entire seismic regions are instrumented with tight networks of strong motion stations, which provide and broadcast accurate intensity measure maps of the event to the public within minutes. The framework uses the broadcasted map and calculates the damage to the lifeline system and its component in quasi real-time. The results give the authorities the most likely status of the system. This helps emergency personnel to deal with the damage and to prioritize visual inspections and repairs. A highway transportation network is used as a test bed but any lifeline system can be analyzed.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.401-409
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• 2020

Seismic fragility assessments include a procedure to combine the random variables of response and capacity to produce the relationship between failure probability and seismic intensity. The evaluation of the failure probability of simultaneous multiple failures of two or more components assumes that the failure probability of each component is independent of those of the others. However, a correlation is expected to exist because several random factors have the same cause. The multiple-failure probability can differ depending on this correlation and may be unconservative without considering the seismic correlation. Therefore, a practical methodology for fragility assessment should be evaluated using the seismic correlation and correlation coefficient for each random variable. In this study, several random variables were selected for numerical evaluation of the correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient was then compared with each variable and the combined variables. The correlation coefficient using simplified and complex models were also compared to determine and analyze the differences between each of the approaches.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.471-484
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• 2020

Previous earthquakes show that, structural safety evaluations should include the evaluation of nonstructural components. Failure of nonstructural components can affect the operational capacity of critical facilities, such as hospitals and fire stations, which can cause an increase in number of deaths. Additionally, failure of nonstructural components may result in economic, architectural, and historical losses of community. Accelerations and random vibrations must be under the predefined limitations in structures with high technological equipment, data centers in this case. Failure of server equipment and anchored server racks are investigated in this study. A probabilistic study is completed for a low-rise rigid sample structure. The structure is investigated in two versions, (i) conventional fixed-based structure and (ii) with a base isolation system. Seismic hazard assessment is completed for the selected site. Monte Carlo simulations are generated with selected parameters. Uncertainties in both structural parameters and mechanical properties of isolation system are included in simulations. Anchorage failure and vibration failures are investigated. Different methods to generate fragility curves are used. The site-specific annual hazard curve is used to generate risk curves for two different structures. A risk matrix is proposed for the design of data centers. Results show that base isolation systems reduce the failure probability significantly in higher floors. It was also understood that, base isolation systems are highly sensitive to earthquake characteristics rather than variability in structural and mechanical properties, in terms of accelerations. Another outcome is that code-provided anchorage failure limitations are more vulnerable than the random vibration failure limitations of server equipment.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.87-98
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• 1998

In this paper, the potential ground motion in terms of the peak ground accelerations(PGAs) due to long-distance Sumatra earthquakes is investigated for Singapore, following the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment a, pp.oach. The case investigated differs from a conventional one, in that few attenuation equations for long-distance major earthquakes are readily available. The attenuation relationships developed for other regions of the world are thus reviewed. It is found that the existing attenuation equations, when extrapolated to distant major earthquakes, tend to underestimate the PGAs. By comparing with the PGAs recorded over long distances at stations of the Japanese Meteorological Agency for major earthquakes in Japan, an attenuation equation is chosen for this study. With the chosen attenuation equation, the probability of PGAs exceeding selected levels for various exposure periods of time is then computed. The results show that at Singapore there is a 10% probability in 50 years for the PGA at rock sites to exceed 1.1% g. In view of the results and the associated uncertainties, a base shear coefficient of 1.5% is being recommended as the tentative seismic loading in Singapore. The tentative seismic loading reflects the design value of the notional horizontal load, equal to 1.5% of the characteristic building weigh as specified in the BS code, which usualy governs the design of most buildings in Singapors.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.277-293
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• 2024

Shored Mechanically Stabilized Earth (SMSE) walls are types of soil retaining structures that increase soil stability under static and dynamic loads. The damage caused by an earthquake can be determined by evaluating the probabilistic seismic response of SMSE walls. This study aimed to assess the seismic performance of SMSE walls and provide fragility curves for evaluating failure levels. The generated fragility curves can help to improve the seismic performance of these walls through assessing and controlling variables like backfill surface settlement, lateral deformation of facing, and permanent relocation of the wall. A parametric study was performed based on a non-linear elastoplastic constitutive model known as the hardening soil model with small-strain stiffness, HSsmall. The analyses were conducted using PLAXIS 2D, a Finite Element Method (FEM) program, under plane-strain conditions to study the effect of the number of geogrid layers and the axial stiffness of geogrids on the performance of SMSE walls. In this study, three areas of damage (minor, moderate, and severe) were observed and, in all cases, the wall has not completely entered the stage of destruction. For the base model (Model A), at the highest ground acceleration coefficient (1 g), in the moderate damage state, the fragility probability was 76%. These values were 62%, and 54%, respectively, by increasing the number of geogrids (Model B) and increasing the geogrid stiffness (Model C). Meanwhile, the fragility values were 99%, 98%, and 97%, respectively in the case of minor damage. Notably, the probability of complete destruction was zero percent in all models.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.517-524
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• 2014

The ultimate goal of seismic design is to reduce the probable losses or damages occurred during an expected earthquake event. To achieve this goal, this study represents a procedure that can estimate annual loss probability of a structure damaged by strong ground motion. First of all, probabilistic seismic performance assessment should be performed using seismic fragility analyses that are presented by a cumulative distribution function of the probability in each exceedance structural damage state. A seismic hazard curve is then derived from an annual frequency of exccedance per each ground motion intensity. An annual loss probability function is combined with seismic fragility analysis results and seismic hazard curves. In this paper, annual loss probabilities are estimated by the structural fragility curve of steel moment-resisting frames(SMRFs) in San Francisco Bay, USA, and are compared with loss estimation results obtained from the HAZUS methodology. It is investigated from the comparison that seismic losses of the SMRFs calculated from the HAZUS method are conservatively estimated. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for future studies related with structural seismic performance assessment and annual loss probability estimation.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.77-84
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• 2021

A sampling-based approach was devised as a nuclear seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) method to account for the partially correlated relationships between components. However, since this method is based on sampling, there is a limitation that a large number of samples must be extracted to estimate the results accurately. Thus, in this study, we suggest an effective approach to improve the existing sampling method. The main features of this approach are as follows. In place of the existing Monte Carlo sampling (MCS) approach, the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method that enables effective sampling in multiple dimensions is introduced to the SPRA method. In addition, the degree of segmentation of the seismic intensity is determined with respect to the final seismic risk result. By applying the suggested approach to an actual nuclear power plant as an example, the accuracy of the results were observed to be almost similar to those of the existing method, but the efficiency was increased by a factor of two in terms of the total number of samples extracted. In addition, it was confirmed that the LHS-based method improves the accuracy of the solution in a small sampling region.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.249-259
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• 2018

This paper aims to assess the seismic risk of a plane moment-resisting frames (MRFs) consisting of concrete-filled double skin steel tube (CFDST) columns and I-section steel beams. Firstly, three typical limit performance levels of CFDST structures are determined in accordance with the cyclic tests of seven CFDST joint specimens with 1/2-scaled and the limits stipulated in FEMA 356. Then, finite element (FE) models of the test specimens are built by considering with material degradation, nonlinear behavior of beam-column connections and panel zones. The mechanical behavior of the concrete material are modeled in compression stressed condition in trip-direction based on unified strength theory, and such numerical model were verified by tests. Besides, numerical models on 3, 6 and 9-story CFDST frames are established. Furthermore, the seismic responses of these models to earthquake excitations are investigated using nonlinear time-history analyses (NTHA), and the limits capacities are determined from incremental dynamic analyses (IDA). In addition, fragility curves are developed for these models associated with 10%/50yr and 2%/50yr events as defined in SAC project for the region on Los Angeles in the Unite State. Lastly, the annual probabilities of each limits and the collapse probabilities in 50 years for these models are calculated and compared. Such results provide risk information for the CFDST-MRFs based on the probabilistic risk assessment method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.710-720
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• 2017

In Korea, many nuclear power plants operate at a single site based on geographical characteristics, but the population density near the sites is higher than that in other countries. Thus, multiunit accidents are a more important consideration than in other countries and should be addressed appropriately. Currently, there are many issues related to a multiunit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). One of them is the quantification of a multiunit PSA model. A traditional PSA uses a Boolean manipulation of the fault tree in terms of the minimal cut set. However, such methods have some limitations when rare event approximations cannot be used effectively or a very small truncation limit should be applied to identify accident sequence combinations for a multiunit site. In particular, it is well known that seismic risk in terms of core damage frequency can be overestimated because there are many events that have a high failure probability. In this study, we propose a quantification method based on a Monte Carlo approach for a multiunit PSA model. This method can consider all possible accident sequence combinations in a multiunit site and calculate a more exact value for events that have a high failure probability. An example model for six identical units at a site was also developed and quantified to confirm the applicability of the proposed method.