• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.66 no.12
• /
• pp.1712-1720
• /
• 2017

In South Korea, minimum reserve rate, which is to satisfy reliability standard, has been determined by simulation result using WASP. But, it is still controversial whether the level of minimum reserve rate is adequate. Thus, in this study, various analyses of minimum reserve rate are being conducted. WASP uses the probabilistic simulation technique to evaluate whether reliability standard is satisfied. In this process, forced outage rate and maintenance periods of each generator play important roles. Especially, the long-term plan can be varied depending on how maintenance periods deal with. In order to model maintenance periods in the probabilistic simulation technique, WASP uses derating method. However, broad analyses have to be conducted because there are various ways including derating method to model maintenance periods which result in different results. Therefore, in this paper, 3 different maintenance outage rate modeling methods are applied to arbitrarily modeled system based on the basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand of South Korea. Results show impact of each modeling method on minimum reserve rate.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.48 no.2
• /
• pp.545-553
• /
• 2016

The failure probabilities of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) for low temperature over-pressurization (LTOP) and cool-down transients are calculated in this study. For the cool-down transient, a pressure-temperature limit curve is generated in accordance with Section XI, Appendix G of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) code, from which safety margin factors are deliberately removed for the probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis. Then, sensitivity analyses are conducted to understand the effects of some input parameters. For the LTOP transient, the failure of the RPV mostly occurs during the period of the abrupt pressure rise. For the cool-down transient, the decrease of the fracture toughness with temperature and time plays a main role in RPV failure at the end of the cool-down process. As expected, the failure probability increases with increasing fluence, Cu and Ni contents, and initial reference temperature-nil ductility transition ($RT_{NDT}$). The effect of warm prestressing on the vessel failure probability for LTOP is not significant because most of the failures happen before the stress intensity factor reaches the peak value while its effect reduces the failure probability by more than one order of magnitude for the cool-down transient.

• International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.134-142
• /
• 2021

This paper proposes a probabilistic method in analyzing timing measurements to determine the periodicity of real-time tasks. The proposed method fills a gap in existing techniques, which either concentrate on the estimation of worst-case execution times, or do not consider the stochastic behavior of the real-time scheduler. Our method is based on the Z-test statistical analysis which calculates the probability of the measured period to fall within a user-defined standard deviation limit. The distribution of the measured period should satisfy two conditions: its center (statistical mean) should be equal to the scheduled period of the real-time task, and that it should be symmetrical with most of the samples focused on the center. To ensure that these requirements are met, a data adjustment process, which omits any outliers in the expense of accuracy, is presented. Then, the Z-score of the distribution according to the user-defined deviation limit provides a probability which determines the periodicity of the real-time task. Experiments are conducted to analyze the timing measurements of real-time tasks based on real-time Linux extensions of Xenomai and RT-Preempt. The results indicate that the proposed method is able to provide easier interpretation of the periodicity of real-time tasks which are valuable especially in comparing the performance of various real-time systems.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.55 no.6
• /
• pp.2263-2275
• /
• 2023

In general, an internal fire events probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model is quantified by modifying the pre-existing internal event PSA model. Because many pieces of equipment or cables can be damaged by a fire, a single fire event can lead to multiple internal events PSA initiating events (IEs). Consequently, when the fire events PSA model is quantified, inappropriate minimal cut sets (MCSs), such as duplicate MCSs, may be generated. This paper shows that single quantification of a hypothetical single-top fire event PSA model may generate the following four types of inappropriate MCSs: duplicate MCSs, MCSs subsumed by other MCSs, nonsense MCSs, and MCSs with over-counted fire frequencies. Among the inappropriate MCSs, the nonsense MCSs should be addressed first because they can interfere with the right interpretation of the other MCSs and prevent the resolution of the issues related to the other inappropriate MCSs. In addition, we propose a resolution process for each of the issues caused by these inappropriate MCSs and suggest an overall procedure for resolving them. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding and resolution of the inappropriate MCSs that may appear in the quantification of fire events PSA models.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
• /
• 2011.02a
• /
• pp.256-261
• /
• 2011

Labor productivity is a significant factor related to control time, cost, and quality. Many researchers have developed models to define method of measuring the relationship between productivity and various constraints such as the size of working area, maximum working hours, and the crew composition. Most of the previous research has focused on estimating productivity; however, this research concentrates on estimating labor productivity and developing time and cost data for repetitive concrete pouring activity. In Korea, "Standard Estimating" only contains the average productivity data of the construction industry, and it is difficult to predict the time and cost of any particular project; hence, there are some errors in estimating duration and cost for individual activity and project. To address these issues, this research collects data, measures productivity, and develops time and cost data using labor productivity based on field conditions from the collected data. A probabilistic approach is also proposed to develop data. A case study is performed to validate this process using actual data collected from construction sites and it is possible that the result will be used as the EVMS baseline of cost management and schedule management.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.56 no.8
• /
• pp.3359-3368
• /
• 2024

In the calculation of DCGLs using RESRAD code, the selection of input parameter values is paramount, which is basically possible when specific measures for selecting reuse scenarios and probabilistic evaluation methods are established. When referring to the impact of the age group considered in the environmental impact assessment among the existing operations of the plant, it may also need to be applied in the decommissioning project, and there will be considerations along with site reuse scenarios and probabilistic evaluations. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to distinguish the types of exposure affected by residual radioactivity contamination during the process of deriving DCGL to be used in the final site release stage of NPPs and to evaluate them by reasonably assigning age group parameter values. In addition, the case of entering a single value for parameter values by age group and the case of entering probabilistic distributions were compared and analyzed.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.43-65
• /
• 2007

Automatic recommendation system of panel pool should be designed to support universal, expertness, fairness, and reasonableness in the process of review of proposals. In this research, we apply the theory of probabilistic ontology to measure relatedness between terms in the classification of academic domain, enlarge the number of review candidates, and rank recommendable reviewers according to their expertness. In addition, we construct a researcher network connecting among researchers according to their various relationships like mentor, coauthor, and cooperative research. We use the researcher network to exclude inappropriate reviewers and support fairness of reviewer recommendation process. Our methodology recommending proper reviewers is verified from experts in the field of proposal examination. It propose the proper method for developing a resonable reviewer recommendation system.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
• /
• 2017.10a
• /
• pp.8-13
• /
• 2017

Nuclear power plant (NPP) constructions are large scale projects that are executed for several years, and schedule control utilizing various schedules is a critically important factor. Recently Korea independently developed the Advanced Power Reactor (APR) 1400 and is building nuclear facilities applying this new reactor type. The construction of Shin-Kori NPP (SKN) Unit 3, which adopted the APR1400, was completed and commercial operation has begun, while, SKN 4, Shin-Hanul NPP (SHN) Units 1&2, and SKN 5&6 are currently under construction. Prior to the development of the APR1400, Korea built 24 reactors and accumulated the schedule data of various reactor types which provided the foundation for schedule reduction to be possible. However, as there is no schedule development and review system established based on the standard schedule data (standard activities, durations, etc.) by reactor type, the process for developing the schedule for new builds is low in efficiency consuming much time and manpower. Also all construction data has been accumulated based on schedule activities. But because the connectivity of activities between projects is low, it is difficult to utilize such accumulated data (causes for schedule delay, causes for design changes, etc.) in new build projects. Due to such reasons, issues continue to arise in the process of developing standard schedule activities and a standard schedule for nuclear power plant construction. In order to develop a standard schedule for NPP construction, i) the development of an NPP standard schedule activity list, ii) development of the connection logic of NPP standard schedule activities, iii) development of NPP standard schedule activity resources and duration, and iv) integration of schedule data need to be performed. In this paper, an analysis was made on the coherence of schedule activity descriptions of existing NPPs by applying the probabilistic methodology on activities with low connectivity due to the utilization of the numbering system of four APR1400 reactors (SHN 1&2 and SKN 3&4).This study also describes the method for developing a standard schedule activity list and connectivity measures by extracting same and/or similar schedule activities.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
• /
• 2013.05a
• /
• pp.703-704
• /
• 2013

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.199-209
• /
• 2008

This paper is described the concepts and limitations for the traditional directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to establish an estimation method of probabilistic directional design hour volume in order to improve the limitation for the traditional approach method. To express the traffic congestion of specific road segment, this paper proposed the link travel time as the probability that the road capacity can accommodate a certain traffic demand at desired service level. Also, the link travel time threshold was derived from chance-constrained stochastic model. Such successive probabilistic process could determine optimal ranked design hour volume and directional design hour volume. Therefore, the probabilistic directional design hour volume can consider the traffic congestion and economic aspect in road planning and design stage. It is hoped that this study will provide a better understanding of various issues involved in the short term prediction of directional design hourly volume on different types of roads.