• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic process

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Two Statistical Models for Automatic Word Spacing of Korean Sentences (한글 문장의 자동 띄어쓰기를 위한 두 가지 통계적 모델)

  • 이도길;이상주;임희석;임해창
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.30 no.3_4
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    • pp.358-371
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    • 2003
  • Automatic word spacing is a process of deciding correct boundaries between words in a sentence including spacing errors. It is very important to increase the readability and to communicate the accurate meaning of text to the reader. The previous statistical approaches for automatic word spacing do not consider the previous spacing state, and thus can not help estimating inaccurate probabilities. In this paper, we propose two statistical word spacing models which can solve the problem of the previous statistical approaches. The proposed models are based on the observation that the automatic word spacing is regarded as a classification problem such as the POS tagging. The models can consider broader context and estimate more accurate probabilities by generalizing hidden Markov models. We have experimented the proposed models under a wide range of experimental conditions in order to compare them with the current state of the art, and also provided detailed error analysis of our models. The experimental results show that the proposed models have a syllable-unit accuracy of 98.33% and Eojeol-unit precision of 93.06% by the evaluation method considering compound nouns.

An Application of Dirichlet Mixture Model for Failure Time Density Estimation to Components of Naval Combat System (디리슈레 혼합모형을 이용한 함정 전투체계 부품의 고장시간 분포 추정)

  • Lee, Jinwhan;Kim, Jung Hun;Jung, BongJoo;Kim, Kyeongtaek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.194-202
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    • 2019
  • Reliability analysis of the components frequently starts with the data that manufacturer provides. If enough failure data are collected from the field operations, the reliability should be recomputed and updated on the basis of the field failure data. However, when the failure time record for a component contains only a few observations, all statistical methodologies are limited. In this case, where the failure records for multiple number of identical components are available, a valid alternative is combining all the data from each component into one data set with enough sample size and utilizing the useful information in the censored data. The ROK Navy has been operating multiple Patrol Killer Guided missiles (PKGs) for several years. The Korea Multi-Function Control Console (KMFCC) is one of key components in PKG combat system. The maintenance record for the KMFCC contains less than ten failure observations and a censored datum. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach with a Dirichlet mixture model to estimate failure time density for KMFCC. Trends test for each component record indicated that null hypothesis, that failure occurrence is renewal process, is not rejected. Since the KMFCCs have been functioning under different operating environment, the failure time distribution may be a composition of a number of unknown distributions, i.e. a mixture distribution, rather than a single distribution. The Dirichlet mixture model was coded as probabilistic programming in Python using PyMC3. Then Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique employed in PyMC3 probabilistically estimated the parameters' posterior distribution through the Dirichlet mixture model. The simulation results revealed that the mixture models provide superior fits to the combined data set over single models.

Deinterleaving of Multiple Radar Pulse Sequences Using Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다중 레이더 펄스열 분리)

  • 이상열;윤기천
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.98-105
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    • 2003
  • We propose a new technique of deinterleaving multiple radar pulse sequences by means of genetic algorithm for threat identification in electronic warfare(EW) system. The conventional approaches based on histogram or continuous wavelet transform are so deterministic that they are subject to failing in detection of individual signal characteristics under real EW signal environment that suffers frequent signal missing, noise, and counter-EW signal. The proposed algorithm utilizes the probabilistic optimization procedure of genetic algorithm. This method, a time-of-arrival(TOA) only strategy, constructs an initial chromosome set using the difference of TOA. To evaluate the fitness of each gene, the defined pulse phase is considered. Since it is rare to meet with a single radar at a moment in EW field of combat, multiple solutions are to be derived in the final stage. Therefore it is designed to terminate genetic process at the prematured generation followed by a chromosome grouping. Experimental results for simulated and real radar signals show the improved performance in estimating both the number of radar and the pulse repetition interval.

Fatigue Strength Analysis and Reliability Analysis of D/H VLCC (D/H VLCC의 피로강도해석과 피로 신뢰성해석)

  • Yang, P.D.C.;Lee, J.S.;Yoon, J.H.;Seo, Y.S.
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.64-74
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    • 1997
  • The necessity and importance of fatigue failure to variable load has been appreciated as the structural design technique develops and use of high tensile steel is increasing. This is much more appreciated for a large ship such as VLCC. The rigorous fatigue analysis and safety assessment should be, hence, carried out at the design stage to avoid the possibility of fatigue failure and to achieve the design result having a sufficient structural safety to fatigue strength. This paper deals with an efficient spectral fatigue analysis of ship structures by introducing the concept of stress influence coefficient. In the process included are probabilistic loading analysis, evaluation of long-term distribution of stress range and estimation of fatigue life applying the spectral fatigue analysis. An integrated computer program has been developed in which reliability analysis to fatigue strength is also included and has been applied to D/H VLCC.

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Optimal Facial Emotion Feature Analysis Method based on ASM-LK Optical Flow (ASM-LK Optical Flow 기반 최적 얼굴정서 특징분석 기법)

  • Ko, Kwang-Eun;Park, Seung-Min;Park, Jun-Heong;Sim, Kwee-Bo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.512-517
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we propose an Active Shape Model (ASM) and Lucas-Kanade (LK) optical flow-based feature extraction and analysis method for analyzing the emotional features from facial images. Considering the facial emotion feature regions are described by Facial Action Coding System, we construct the feature-related shape models based on the combination of landmarks and extract the LK optical flow vectors at each landmarks based on the centre pixels of motion vector window. The facial emotion features are modelled by the combination of the optical flow vectors and the emotional states of facial image can be estimated by the probabilistic estimation technique, such as Bayesian classifier. Also, we extract the optimal emotional features that are considered the high correlation between feature points and emotional states by using common spatial pattern (CSP) analysis in order to improvise the operational efficiency and accuracy of emotional feature extraction process.

ROLE OF COMPUTER SIMULATION MODELING IN PESTICIDE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

  • Wauchope, R.Don;Linders, Jan B.H.J.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Environmental Toocicology Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.91-93
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    • 2003
  • It has been estimated that the equivalent of approximately $US 50 billion has been spent on research on the behavior and fate of pesticides in the environment since Rachel Carson published “Silent Spring” in 1962. Much of the resulting knowledge has been summarized explicitly in computer algorithms in a variety of empirical, deterministic, and probabilistic simulation models. These models describe and predict the transport, degradation and resultant concentrations of pesticides in various compartments of the environment during and after application. In many cases the known errors of model predictions are large. For this reason they are typically designed to be “conservative”, i.e., err on the side of over-prediction of concentrations in order to err on the side of safety. These predictions are then compared with toxicity data, from tests of the pesticide on a series of standard representative biota, including terrestrial and aquatic indicator species and higher animals (e.g., wildlife and humans). The models' predictions are good enough in some cases to provide screening of those compounds which are very unlikely to do harm, and to indicate those compounds which must be investigated further. If further investigation is indicated a more detailed (and therefore more complicated) model may be employed to give a better estimate, or field experiments may be required. A model may be used to explore “what if” questions leading to possible alternative pesticide usage patterns which give lower potential environmental concentrations and allowable exposures. We are currently at a maturing stage in this research where the knowledge base of pesticide behavior in the environmental is growing more slowly than in the past. However, innovative uses are being made of the explosion in available computer technology to use models to take ever more advantage of the knowledge we have. In this presentation, current developments in the state of the art as practiced in North America and Europe will be presented. Specifically, we will look at the efforts of the ‘Focus’ consortium in the European Union, and the ‘EMWG’ consortium in North America. These groups have been innovative in developing a process and mechanisms for discussion amongst academic, agriculture, industry and regulatory scientists, for consensus adoption of research advances into risk management methodology.

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A study on the ordering of PIM family similarity measures without marginal probability (주변 확률을 고려하지 않는 확률적 흥미도 측도 계열 유사성 측도의 서열화)

  • Park, Hee Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.367-376
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    • 2015
  • Today, big data has become a hot keyword in that big data may be defined as collection of data sets so huge and complex that it becomes difficult to process by traditional methods. Clustering method is to identify the information in a big database by assigning a set of objects into the clusters so that the objects in the same cluster are more similar to each other clusters. The similarity measures being used in the cluster analysis may be classified into various types depending on the nature of the data. In this paper, we computed upper and lower limits for probability interestingness measure based similarity measures without marginal probability such as Yule I and II, Michael, Digby, Baulieu, and Dispersion measure. And we compared these measures by real data and simulated experiment. By Warrens (2008), Coefficients with the same quantities in the numerator and denominator, that are bounded, and are close to each other in the ordering, are likely to be more similar. Thus, results on bounds provide means of classifying various measures. Also, knowing which coefficients are similar provides insight into the stability of a given algorithm.

The Effects of the Consumers' Beliefs of Seafood Certifications on The Behavioral Intention Biases in Making Certified Product purchases : Focused on Seasoned Laver (수산식품인증제도에 대한 소비자 신념이 구매의도 편향성에 미치는 영향:조미김을 사례로)

  • Park, Jeong-A;Jang, Young-Soo
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.71-92
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the effects of consumer beliefs for food certifications on the behavioral intentions and the behavioral intention biases to purchase the certified seafoods by a subjective probability model which is on the basis of the mathematical probability model and the covariance model. The food certifications used on this study are 'Organic foods', 'Traceability system of food products' and. 'HACCP'. The representative foods of fishery products on this study is seasoned laver. The current study showed the following results. First, consumers have more than two different beliefs each for all certifications which are the subjects of this study. The beliefs of the certifications have an impact on the consumers when they consider to buy the certified seafood products. Second, consumers try to persuade by themselves to ensure that their particular belief about the certification could lead to a purchase the seafood products. Consumer beliefs of the "environmentally friendly production" on the organic foods certification is an important factor as much as the "guarantee of food safety" belief making a positive purchasing behavior intentions(PBI) bias for the organic seafood products. Consumers also have a positive PBI bias for certified seafood products in all certifications as long as a certification is considered to "guarantee the transparency of the food distribution process" as its belief. 'Traceability system' was the only one which didn't generate a positive PBI bias from the belief of "guarantee of food safety" out of three certifications.

Development of a Product Risk Assessment System using Injury Information in Korea Consumer Agency (한국소비자원 위해정보를 활용한 제품 리스크 평가시스템 개발)

  • Suh, Jungdae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2017
  • Recently, safety accidents of daily necessities such as humidifier disinfectant, mobile phones, and infant diapers, have occurred frequently. To protect consumers from these accidents, product safety management is required, and a product risk assessment tool is needed to evaluate the degree of safety of the product. In this paper, we have constructed RAS, which is a system that can evaluate product risk based on injury information of product accident in Korea Consumer Agency. RAS consists of an injury information analysis system for analyzing accident-related information and a risk assessment system for assessing risk using information derived from the system. The Bayesian network - based probabilistic method is applied to reflect the causal relationships that affect product risk in the risk assessment process. We used RAS to evaluate 33 children's products and compared them with the results of EU RAPEX RAG. Subsequent tasks include reducing the subjectivity of the input of the accident impact scale, and linking the above two systems.

Evaluation of the Uncertainties in Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Meta-Gaussian Approach (Meta-Gaussian 방법을 이용한 강우-유출 모형에서의 불확실성 산정)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Bo-Kyung;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.49-64
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    • 2009
  • Rainfall-runoff models are used for efficient management, distribution, planning, and design of water resources in accordance with the process of hydrologic cycle. The models simplify the transition of rainfall to runoff as rainfall through different processes including evaporation, transpiration, interception, and infiltration. As the models simplify complex physical processes, gaps between the models and actual rainfall events exist. For more accurate simulation, appropriate models that suit analysis goals are selected and reliable long-term hydrological data are collected. However, uncertainty is inherent in models. It is therefore necessary to evaluate reliability of simulation results from models. A number of studies have evaluated uncertainty ingrained in rainfall-runoff models. In this paper, Meta-Gaussian method proposed by Montanari and Brath(2004) was used to assess uncertainty of simulation outputs from rainfall-runoff models. The model, which estimates upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval from probabilistic distribution of a model's error, can quantify global uncertainty of hydrological models. In this paper, Meta-Gaussian method was applied to analyze uncertainty of simulated runoff outputs from $Vflo^{TM}$, a physically-based distribution model and HEC-HMS model, a conceptual lumped model.

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