• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic models

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Re-visitation Choice Impacts of Consideration on Sustainable Tourism Development - Using Logit and Probit Models - (지속가능한 관광개발 의식이 지역 재방문 선택에 미치는 영향 - 로짓모형과 프로빗모형을 활용하여 -)

  • Shin, Sang-Hyun;Yun, Hee-Jeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2011
  • Re-visitation have an effect on dependent variables of regional tourism demand model. This study focused on the re-visitation impacts of consideration on sustainable tourism development of tourists as a new factors of tourism. Based on literature reviews, 11 variables were selected, a questionnaire survey was given to 406 tourists divided into 5 tourism sites at Chuncheon city, and logit model and probit model were used for analysis. The fitness levels of two models were very significant(p=0.0000). The study results suggest that the likelihood of the rural tourist to make a return visit is influenced by recognition of sustainable tourism, purchase of souvenir and farm produce, visitation of regional shops, conversation with regional residents, residents' participation on development, age and marriage. The results of such re-visitation demand can provide information for regional development strategies. The approach to re-visitation research impacts of consideration on sustainable tourism development is expected to become a useful foundation in studying on sustainable regional development.

New strut-and-tie-models for shear strength prediction and design of RC deep beams

  • Chetchotisak, Panatchai;Teerawong, Jaruek;Yindeesuk, Sukit;Song, Junho
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.19-40
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    • 2014
  • Reinforced concrete deep beams are structural beams with low shear span-to-depth ratio, and hence in which the strain distribution is significantly nonlinear and the conventional beam theory is not applicable. A strut-and-tie model is considered one of the most rational and simplest methods available for shear strength prediction and design of deep beams. The strut-and-tie model approach describes the shear failure of a deep beam using diagonal strut and truss mechanism: The diagonal strut mechanism represents compression stress fields that develop in the concrete web between diagonal cracks of the concrete while the truss mechanism accounts for the contributions of the horizontal and vertical web reinforcements. Based on a database of 406 experimental observations, this paper proposes a new strut-and-tie-model for accurate prediction of shear strength of reinforced concrete deep beams, and further improves the model by correcting the bias and quantifying the scatter using a Bayesian parameter estimation method. Seven existing deterministic models from design codes and the literature are compared with the proposed method. Finally, a limit-state design formula and the corresponding reduction factor are developed for the proposed strut-andtie model.

Using Geometry based Anomaly Detection to check the Integrity of IFC classifications in BIM Models (기하정보 기반 이상탐지분석을 이용한 BIM 개별 부재 IFC 분류 무결성 검토에 관한 연구)

  • Koo, Bonsang;Shin, Byungjin
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2017
  • Although Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) provide standards for exchanging Building Information Modeling (BIM) data, authoring tools still require manual mapping between BIM entities and IFC classes. This leads to errors and omissions, which results in corrupted data exchanges that are unreliable and thus compromise the validity of IFC. This research explored precedent work by Krijnen and Tamke, who suggested ways to automate the mapping of IFC classes using a machine learning technique, namely anomaly detection. The technique incorporates geometric features of individual components to find outliers among entities in identical IFC classes. This research primarily focused on applying this approach on two architectural BIM models and determining its feasibility as well as limitations. Results indicated that the approach, while effective, misclassified outliers when an IFC class had several dissimilar entities. Another issue was the lack of entities for some specific IFC classes that prohibited the anomaly detection from comparing differences. Future research to improve these issues include the addition of geometric features, using novelty detection and the inclusion of a probabilistic graph model, to improve classification accuracy.

MONITORING SEVERE ACCIDENTS USING AI TECHNIQUES

  • No, Young-Gyu;Kim, Ju-Hyun;Na, Man-Gyun;Lim, Dong-Hyuk;Ahn, Kwang-Il
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.393-404
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    • 2012
  • After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, there has been increasing concern regarding severe accidents in nuclear facilities. Severe accident scenarios are difficult for operators to monitor and identify. Therefore, accurate prediction of a severe accident is important in order to manage it appropriately in the unfavorable conditions. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as support vector classification (SVC), probabilistic neural network (PNN), group method of data handling (GMDH), and fuzzy neural network (FNN), were used to monitor the major transient scenarios of a severe accident caused by three different initiating events, the hot-leg loss of coolant accident (LOCA), the cold-leg LOCA, and the steam generator tube rupture in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The SVC and PNN models were used for the event classification. The GMDH and FNN models were employed to accurately predict the important timing representing severe accident scenarios. In addition, in order to verify the proposed algorithm, data from a number of numerical simulations were required in order to train the AI techniques due to the shortage of real LOCA data. The data was acquired by performing simulations using the MAAP4 code. The prediction accuracy of the three types of initiating events was sufficiently high to predict severe accident scenarios. Therefore, the AI techniques can be applied successfully in the identification and monitoring of severe accident scenarios in real PWRs.

A joint probability distribution model of directional extreme wind speeds based on the t-Copula function

  • Quan, Yong;Wang, Jingcheng;Gu, Ming
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.261-282
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    • 2017
  • The probabilistic information of directional extreme wind speeds is important for precisely estimating the design wind loads on structures. A new joint probability distribution model of directional extreme wind speeds is established based on observed wind-speed data using multivariate extreme value theory with the t-Copula function in the present study. At first, the theoretical deficiencies of the Gaussian-Copula and Gumbel-Copula models proposed by previous researchers for the joint probability distribution of directional extreme wind speeds are analysed. Then, the t-Copula model is adopted to solve this deficiency. Next, these three types of Copula models are discussed and evaluated with Spearman's rho, the parametric bootstrap test and the selection criteria based on the empirical Copula. Finally, the extreme wind speeds for a given return period are predicted by the t-Copula model with observed wind-speed records from several areas and the influence of dependence among directional extreme wind speeds on the predicted results is discussed.

Earthquake effect on the concrete walls with shape memory alloy reinforcement

  • Beiraghi, Hamid
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.491-506
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    • 2019
  • Literature regarding concrete walls reinforced by super elastic shape memory alloy (SMA) bars is rather limited. The seismic behavior of a system concurrently including a distinct steel reinforced concrete (RC) wall, as well as another wall reinforced by super elastic SMA at the first story, and steel rebar at upper stories, would be an interesting matter. In this paper, the seismic response of such a COMBINED system is compared to a conventional system with steel RC concrete walls (STEEL-Rein.) and also to a wall system with SMA rebar at the first story and steel rebar at other stories ( SMA-Rein.). Nonlinear time history analysis at maximum considered earthquake (MCE) and design bases earthquake (DBE) levels is conducted and the main responses like maximum inter-story drift ratio and residual inter-story drift ratio are investigated. Furthermore, incremental dynamic analysis is used to accomplish probabilistic seismic studies by creating fragility curves. Results demonstrated that the SMA-Rein. system, subjected to DBE and MCE ground motions, has almost zero and 0.27% residual maximum inter-story drifts, while the values for the COMBINED system are 0.25% and 0.51%. Furthermore, fragility curves show that using SMA rebar at the base of all walls causes a larger probability of exceedance 3% inter-story drift limit state compared to the COMBINED system. Static push over analysis demonstrated that the strength of the COMBINED model is almost 0.35% larger than that of the two other models, and its general post-yielding stiffness is also approximately twice the corresponding stiffness of the two other models.

Fragility-based rapid earthquake loss assessment of precast RC buildings in the Marmara region

  • Ali Yesilyurt;Oguzhan Cetindemir;Seyhan O. Akcan;Abdullah C. Zulfikar
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.88 no.1
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2023
  • Seismic risk assessment studies are one of the most crucial instruments for mitigating casualties and economic losses. This work utilizes fragility curves to evaluate the seismic risk of single-story precast buildings, which are generally favored in Marmara's organized industrial zones. First, the precast building stock in the region has been categorized into nine sub-classes. Then, seven locations in the Marmara region with a high concentration of industrial activities are considered. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments were conducted for both the soil-dependent and soil-independent scenarios. Subsequently, damage analysis was performed based on the structural capacity and mean fragility curves. Considering four different consequence models, 630 sub-class-specific loss curves for buildings were obtained. In the current study, it has been determined that the consequence model has a significant impact on the loss curves, hence, average loss curves were computed for each case investigated. In light of the acquired results, it was found that the loss ratio values obtained at different locations within the same region show significant variation. In addition, it was observed that the structural damage states change from serviceable to repairable or repairable to unrepairable. Within the scope of the study, 126 average loss functions were presented that could be easily used by non-experts in earthquake engineering, regardless of structural analysis. These functions, which offer loss ratios for varying hazard levels, are valuable outputs that allow preliminary risk assessment in the region and yield sensible outcomes for insurance activities.

Characterizing and modelling nonstationary tri-directional thunderstorm wind time histories

  • Y.X. Liu;H.P. Hong
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.277-293
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    • 2024
  • The recorded thunderstorm winds at a point contain tri-directional components. The probabilistic characteristics of such recorded winds in terms of instantaneous mean wind speed and direction, and the probability distribution and the time-frequency dependent crossed and non-crossed power spectral density functions for the high-frequency fluctuating wind components are unclear. In the present study, we analyze the recorded tri-directional thunderstorm wind components by separating the recorded winds in terms of low-frequency time-varying mean wind speed and high-frequency fluctuating wind components in the alongwind direction and two orthogonal crosswind directions. We determine the time-varying mean wind speed and direction defined by azimuth and elevation angles, and analyze the spectra of high-frequency wind components in three orthogonal directions using continuous wavelet transforms. Additionally, we evaluate the coherence between each pair of fluctuating winds. Based on the analysis results, we develop empirical spectral models and lagged coherence models for the tri-directional fluctuating wind components, and we indicate that the fluctuating wind components can be treated as Gaussian. We show how they can be used to generate time histories of the tri-directional thunderstorm winds.

A Study on the Triphone Replacement in a Speech Recognition System with DMS Phoneme Models

  • Lee, Gang-Seong
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.3E
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    • pp.21-25
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    • 1999
  • This paper proposes methods that replace a missing triphone with a new one selected or created by existing triphones, and compares the results. The recognition system uses DMS (Dynamic Multisection) model for acoustic modeling. DMS is one of the statistical recognition techniques proper to a small - or mid - size vocabulary system, while HMM (Hidden Markov Model) is a probabilistic technique suitable for a middle or large system. Accordingly, it is reasonable to use an effective algorithm that is proper to DMS, rather than using a complicated method like a polyphone clustering technique employed in HMM-based systems. In this paper, four methods of filling missing triphones are presented. The result shows that a proposed replacing algorithm works almost as well as if all the necessary triphones existed. The experiments are performed on the 500+ word DMS speech recognizer.

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On a Set Covering Model to Maximize Reliability (신뢰도를 최대화하는 지역담당 모델)

  • Oh, Jae-Sang;Kim, Sung-In
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.53-70
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    • 1982
  • This thesis develops a more realistic and applicable new set covering model that is adjusted and supplied by the existing set covering models, and induces an algorithm for solving the new set covering model, and applies the new model and the algorithm to an actual set covering problems. The new set covering model introduces a probabilistic covering aistance ($0{\eqslantless}p{\eqslantless}1$)or time($0{\eqslantless}p{\eqslantless}1$) instead of a deterministic covering distance(0 or 1) or time (0 or 1) of the existing set covering model. The existing set covering model has not considered the merit of the overcover of customers. But this new set covering model leads a concept of this overcover to a concept of the parallel system reliability. The algorithm has been programmed on the UNIVAC 9030 for solving large-scale covering problems. An application of the new set covering model is presented in order to determine the locations of the air surveillance radars as a set covering problem for a case-study.

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